Fantasy Baseball Advice

Trouble ahead, Casey Jones, if you think Matt Cain is ‘08 Lincecum.  I went over why this doode was faux-Cain two weeks go when I broke down FIP.  Now everyone is saying to sell high on him.  And by everyone, I mean ESPN.  Two weeks late, guys.  Went there already.  Oh, and I’m not going to link to them, because, as Berry said, that’s what they want.  Well, I want Berry to say I told him not to draft Nolasco and then he went and said Nolasco was in store for a great year.  When Berry says, I told him so.  I’ll link to them.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Cain!  So you got your lugwrench out and you’re trying to figure out how to make Cain able again.  The discrepancy between where Cain is now and where he should be is scary like Carol Channing without makeup.  Why?  Blah blah blah Lower K rate, very high strand rate… yadda yadda yadda… I went over it two weeks ago.  Open that FIP link.  And, yes, I touted the beejesus out of Cain in the preseason and I own him on a few teams.  And, yes, I’d actually feel better if his ERA was just in the low fours like it should be.  Don’t overrate his current ERA.  You know that.  So everyone’s zigging as they try to sell Cain, what do you do?  Zag?  Do you have the alligator blood to buy him for cheap?  Maybe.  It’s hard to sell a guy when their player news is calling for a regression.  It’s like running headlong into projectile vomit.  Then again, someone will drop some Liquid Paper on his stats any day now.  Now for the good news, his last time out he dropped his FIP from 4.85 to a more manageable 4.36.  One more strong start and who knows maybe he can actually be a 4.00 pitcher.  He’s not, I repeat, not a 2.40 ERA pitcher right now, but as long as you keep that in mind, you should be all right.  So sell him if you can get a decent deal, or buy him, but know what you’re getting.  Right now, people want to sell him so bad, you may actually get a decent deal for him.  He’s not terrible, just not quite what he’s been showing.  (BTW, CBS was touting Mark Reynolds as a buy this week.  I told you to buy him in March.  ESPN told you to sell Cain and Jurrjens this week.  I told you that two weeks ago.  If I didn’t write this shizz, I’d be reading it too.  Hey, wait a minute, my ’stache looks weird with my bigger head.)  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

J.P. Izzywheelfourson – Not sure if people are already done with the Rays and their bullpen shituation, but I’d hold for another week or two because whoever emerges will have value.  For full disclosure, I’m currently holding Wheeler on some teams.  No one else.

Jeff Clement – Honestly, I don’t know if he’s going to get called up with Johjima on the DL with a broken thumbkin, but if Clement gets the call, he’ll be worth a spot in mixed leagues for the catching deprived.  Right now, I’d own him in AL-Only leagues.  Recognize!

Jake Fox – Went over picking up Jake Fox yesterday.  Cliff Notes version:  The use of the phrase, “…like Tyra Banks would say, he can (hit) fiercely,” was an allusion to the reality show, America’s Next Top Model, where Tyra Banks, a former top model and terrible TV host, critiques aspiring models with the noted fashion photographer, Nigel Barker.  When an aspiring model performs well in a challenge, she’s said to be “fierce.”  So Grey is saying Jake Fox can hit well.

Fernando Martinez – As we continue our rookie nookie portion of our program, Martinez may only be up for a week or two.  I think he’s way too raw at this point in 12 team mixed leagues, so I haven’t grabbed him anywhere, but ya never know.

Tommy Hanson – Has to be up very soon.  Medlen’s been garbage.  We need Coach Leak to get the crowd started, “Let him play… Let him play…”

Luke Scott – He might only hit five homers in June, but they’ll probably come in the next week.

Alcides Escobar – Someone said something in the comments the other day that was funny, “If Web Gems is a category, this guy would be a 1st rounder.”  Or something like that, I’m paraphrasing and I don’t even know who said it and I didn’t feel like searching… Anyhoo, the Brewers put Escobar at 2nd base the day after Weeks went down.  Curious?  Yeah, they’re going to call him up.  Escobar probably won’t give you much offensively this year, except for steals.  SAGNOF!

J.A. Happ – Pickin’ up the Happy dugout!  What, no Ice Cube fans?  For shame.  Happ’s in a crizzappy park, but he gets the Nats and Padres in Petco next.

Russell Martin – Funny thing happened on the way to June.  Martin forgot he was a 1st half hitter. Anyone that actually wasted a draft pick on this catcher can’t be happy.  Right now, they’re thinking about how they could’ve punted the catcher spot, grabbed Varitek late and had 10 homers.  And they’re right, suckas!  Schadenfreude!  That doesn’t mean you can’t exploit their fragile sense of self.  Nietzsche!   Right now, they’d probably give you Martin for a side order of meatballs.  Great movie!  I’d prefer to have Martin than Varitek (or insert random catcher schmohawk that you own) for the rest of the year, so if you can weasel Martin out of someone’s clutches, consent granted.

SELL

Brandon Phillips – I was a big supporter of Phillips this year and still am, but only if he can prove healthy, and that but is J. Lo-sized.  I have a sneaky suspicion that Phillips is going to come back, then realize he can’t play with his hairline fracture on his thumb and go to the DL for 6 weeks.  Monitor him and field offers, so you seem like you’re, a, hip to the game.

Nick Johnson – You’ve been bamboozled.  Yes, you have.  No, he’s not going to stay healthy.  Nope.  Sorry.  Oh, and healthy Johnson has four homers.  Yawstipating.

Jorge De La Rosa – Not sure if I mentioned this when it happened, but I picked up George of the Rose the other day.  But benched him for his first start with me because I didn’t trust him.  He went three and a third innings and gave up seven runs.  Tragedy and trajectory towards the TV averted.  I dropped him the next day.

Manny Parra – You might’ve only owned him because of me so let me be the one to break it to you.  Commandment #1, Pitchers shall not issue walks.  Parra, go to hell.

Travis Hafner is coming back.  We’re picking him up for our UTIL slot right now…in our 40 team mixed league.  Brett Myers, who has been a marginal mixed league starter since returning from a bullpen stint 2 years back, may be out for the year with the latest – or should we say hippest – new injury….the torn labrum in the hip.  It’s the new oblique.  We had him on the risky list this year, but thought his elbow would be the first to go after throwing so many sliders last year.  If any Phillie pitcher was going to get a new hip, we would’ve bet Jamie Moyer.  (Incidentally, he’s also first on our list of most likely Phillie pitchers to get a new gall bladder.)  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Grady Sizemore – [sarcasm] Huge game for Grady as he went 1-for-3 with no runs or RBIs or steals.  Watch out now! [/sarcasm]

Clete Thomas – Batted leadoff for the Tigers yesterday.  I’ve figured out Jim Leyland’s master plan!  Anderson had been leading off, but he’s the left fielder and he sat out.  So Clete Thomas was the left fielder yesterday so he led off.  When Clete Thomas was the right fielder, he batted third.  Leyland’s got the positions written on his lineup card and only enough Liquid Paper to change names.  Mystery solved!

Anthony Swarzak – This guy sounds like a guy everyone went to high school with (Dude, did you hear Swarzak bought a Camaro?!) but he’s in fact another intriguing young Twins starter after 2 solid starts in a row… Well, until you look at his AAA and MLB K totals. 6.5 K/9 in AAA and 6 Ks in 2 starts sounds a lot like Glen Perkins Jr.  Avoid him in mixed leagues.

Dan Haren – 8 IP, 2 ER. In the 8th inning, he twisted his ankle and fell.  I began to weep.  He got up and finished the inning (giving up a run).  He looked like he’ll be okay though.  Godspeed, Danny!

Ryan Roberts – I swear every time Daron Sutton says his name, I say to myself, “Brian Roberts was finally traded to a different team?”  Anyway, forget Ryan Roberts, he’s 29.  But that’s what they said about Junior Spivey!

Randy Wells – 4 major league starts now and 4 solid (albeit winless) starts.  Nearly a K an inning and a 1.80 ERA / 1.16 WHIP. He spent the last 2 1/2 years hanging in the Cubs AAA with our pal, IowaCubs, alternating between starting and relieving.  If you’re in an NL-league, hope for a Dempster ride.  In mixed leagues, avoid the Dumpster dive.

David Hernandez – The 4th Baltimore rookie pitcher this year to win his first major league start.  We’re naturally weary of any Orioles starter, but Hernandez warrants monitoring.  His minor-league K rate is very impressive — over 10 in the past two years in A and AA and 12.5 K/9 (!) in AAA this year.  He’s also had some control issues in the minors which extended to his first start (4 walks in 5 IP).  He’s not a top prospect, but neither was Daniel Cabrera and look how well…oh, right….

Luke Scott – 2 HRs yesterday.  Ring, ring… Who’s there?  Cheap power.  Hey, c’mon in, you want a seltzer?

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday.  Oh, and, um, PICKUP REIMOLD!!! (Caps and heavy hand on the exclamation marks for emphasis and people reading over your shoulder.)

Matt Kemp – 1-for-4 with 2 steals, while he batted eighth yesterday.  Torre said he would’ve batted him ninth but he didn’t like how Wolf matched up with Wells.

Derrek Lee – We had a rare D-Lee sighting last night as he went 2-for-4.  He hit two warning track fly outs too.  I’m not paying to see if this is a start of something, but if you own him, it might be.   Cross your fingers.  But cross two you don’t use much like the pinkie and ring.  Leave the middle one free in case D-Lee comes down with another case of sucking.

Randy Wolf – 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER, has a 1.80 ERA on the season and 64 Ks in just over 76 innings.  No, his ERA won’t stay there, but he could give a 3.50.  Pays to go with the boring guys sometimes.  Oh, and we were just about to see the Wolf take on the Fox when Troncosco relieved Wolf.  This would’ve been the first time we had an all-animal matchup since Paul Byrd threw a tennis ball to his schnauzer, Daisy.

This is more of a general fantasy baseball strategy post (and aimed for Roto more than H2H).  This is sort of a continuation of this morning’s roundup.  Well… At least the thought process for why I’m writing it is in continuation.  Do you start or sit pitchers?  There isn’t an easy, broad answer to start every guy, so I understand the trepidation behind starting certain guys.  You don’t want Ubaldo sitting on your team’s face right after he ate Mexican food.  But you also don’t want to start a guy for all his bad outings and sit him for the great ones.  In a lot of cases, Perry Mason, this comes down to over thinking.  Listen, even your fearless leader sometimes over thinks his starts and misses a good one.  And some guys really are for just matchups.  You’re not starting “Fire Chin” Gaudin every time out. (In some leagues, you’re not starting him ever.)  So rather than me try and come up with some all encompassing rule that doesn’t really apply in every case, I’m going to show you by what I’ve been doing.

In my twelve team league, I’m currently in first and I have a pitching staff of Papelbon, Broxton, Scherzer, Bedard, Wandy, Wolf, Rodney, Hawkins, Grabow, F-Her, Percival and a DL’d Kazmir.  I’ve missed one start on purpose this year.  In my infinite wisdom, I sat Wandy at Colorado when he K’d 11 Rockies, gave up 2 earned and walked none.  A “strategy” move that was to my detriment.  Now you’re thinking, well, you must’ve sat Kazmir all the time.  Nope.  Unfortunately, I didn’t sit him once.  And out of a possible 12 points in WHIP and ERA.  I have a 9 and a 10, respectively in each.  (BTW, To my detriment, I also spot started Zito a few times and that Royals pitcher that we will never speak of again whose name rhymes with Suckevar.  As well as picking up all kinds of junky closers.)

Sober people don’t bet on baseball for one simple reason.  In the short term, from start to start, no one really has any idea what anyone’s going to do.  In the big picture, it’s another thing.  But the big picture only comes to fruition (which is not a Frutazza) if you start your guys so you get their cumulative stats.  Now, of course, if you’re in a ten team league, certain matchups become less startable than 12 team leagues.  Then certain matchups in 15 team leagues, you wouldn’t dream of in 12 team leagues.  So when you ask me in the comments or our fantasy baseball forums about starting a guy, the most important thing is your league depth, friend.  Otherwise, I assume 12 team.  Okay, so who’s starting Lester next time out?  No way!!!

Carlos Zambrano in his own special way welcomed the Cubs new arrival, Jake Fox, with a shizzfit of epic proportions.  Zambrano was ejected for bumping an ump,  I especially enjoyed when the ump ejected him and he then ejected the ump.  I’m out of order? No, YOU’RE out of order!  Somewhere Michael Barrett flinched.  Jake Fox can do it all. And, like Tyra Banks would say, he can do it fiercely.  His Triple-A numbers are 40/17/50/.423 in 40 games with a .503 OBP.  Pretty sick… And that’s sick as in healthy, not sick as in Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin or Votto.  But will Fox get time to do any of it, you ask.  Let’s see, Soriano, Hoffpauir, Fuku, FU (Bradley), Derrek Lee and Reed Johnson in four spots.  Fox’s only shot for regular playing time is at 3B and there he’d be a butcher.  At 1B/OF, maybe he gets 3 starts a week unless D-Lee gets hurt.  Though you can call D-Lee “DL” at this point, because he’s been about as reliable as a parachute made of bloomers.  As with other rookies, if Fox gets the chance, he could prove successful, so you want to be the one that owns him.  If he fails, then you drop him and take a bat to the Gatorade cooler.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners and 5 walks with 6 Ks.  Unfortunately, this is what Parra do.  Until he can get his walks in order, he’s not worth the psoriasis-inducing head scratching.

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-5.  Hey, look who decided to make an appearance.  He’ll hit .250 and get 20+ homers.  If that’s what you need, that’s what he does.

Matt Capps – Said to be returning soon.  Be nice to get one save for all the effort I put in to pick up Grabow in every league.  Throw Grey a bone here, would ya?

Mat Gamel – 0-for-3.  Sticking with the Mat theme, but dropping one T like a bad geisha.  Gamel’s 3rd base eligibility made him especially enticing to me as a cornerman.  But he’s now making me long for Mark Teahen.

Luke Scott – Returned from the DL and hit a HR.  He’ll steal time from Wigginton, which is ironic because they’re basically the same player.  It would be like Mark Reynolds losing time to Chris Davis.  Tomato-tomahto, Orioles.  Find a blahtoon that makes sense to me then we’ll talk.

Nolan Reimold – Game winning homer yesterday.  See, Gamel, that’s how you turn lemons into Country Time.

Brett Myers – Left the game with his hip to be flared.  Again, he really shouldn’t even be on your team.  To avoid future flare-ups, he promises to wear the proper gear when disagreeing with his wife.

Jay Bruce – 2 HRs.  Now has 14 homers and only 29 RBIs.  Sure would be nice if the Reds put some runners on for him.  Maybe Dizzy Votto and his maritime compatriots can get aboard.

B.J. Ryan – For those holding out hope he’s taking over for Downs any moment, he’s given up 4 runs in the last 2 innings.  The Blue Jays are paying him a lot of money so they feel compelled to play him.  You shouldn’t.

Rick Porcello – 6 IP, 2 ER.  His lack of Ks leaves me wanting more, but he’s obviously been decent.  And his last name sounds like a delicious pasta sauce!

Josh Anderson – 4-for-5 while batting lead-off and stealing his 10th base.  SAGNOF!

Oliver Perez – Jerry Manuel said, Perez will need to be in the minors for at least another start because of “knee problems.” Jerry Manuel needs a bar of soap for some “lying problems.”

Adam Dunn – Hit another HR.  Since I traded him for Jose Reyes, he’s hit about five dozen home runs.  Kill me now.  Thank you.

Derek Holland – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Was a terrible matchup, and he gets the Yankees again next time out.

Chien-Ming Wang – Well, lookie-lookie.  2 IP, 2 Ks and zero baserunners.   Now let’s see you do it when you don’t have a seven run lead.

Elvis Andrus – I feel like I haven’t mentioned this enough, but where’s the effin’ steals, doode?  6 steals so far is not enough.  Let’s go, Elvis, boogie.

Kevin Slowey – I don’t own him in any league, but I gladly would.  I like Slowey a lot.  But because I don’t own him, I had no idea of something… He’s got 7 Wins?!  When did this happen?  Some of my teams don’t have 7 Wins.  Why am I fielding questions about whether to start this guy or not (when I invariably say start him)?  He’s 7-1 with a near-4 ERA.   Yeah, I’d start him.

Jered Weaver – Here’s another guy I feel like I keep answering questions about.  He has a 2.36 ERA.  For criminy sakes, start him.

Adrian Gonzalez – Hit his 18th homer yesterday.  Could this be the year we see a 40 homer guy call Petco home? (<–Sounds like something Tim Kurkjian would say while his voice squeaked.)

Bronson Arroyo – Now leads the NL with seven wins.  After the game he played on his guitar his new tune, “I May Suck, But My Wins Say It Ain’t True.”  Actually, pretty catchy.

Randy Johnson – Goes for win number 300 next week against the Nationals.  After he wins that game, I imagine he’ll say something like, “I could’ve won 500 games if they were all this easy.”

Jesse Chavez – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Somebody got burned yesterday chasing Saves.  A’la Nelson Muntz, ha ha!

Joe Nelson – 2 IP, 4 ER.  See 1/8 of an inch above.

Ben Zobrist – 2-for-3, and a steal.  Even if you just own him while Reyes gets better, it’s something, no?

Ben Francisco – 3-for-5 with a homer.  He’s 8-for-9 with 5 homers against Andy Sonnanstine.  Maybe he can get glasses made that superimpose Sonnanstine’s jersey on every pitcher.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 11th homer yesterday.  In the offseason of 2010, you’ll be looking at first basemen and you’ll think you should draft Branyan because he had 30 homers in 2009.  No, you shouldn’t.  But you can own him this year.

Adam Kennedy – 0-for-8 in the last two days.  He was hot for about a week, then he remembered who he was.  So my question is, who told my Reyes fill-in that he’s just Adam Kennedy?  I had a good thing going, man!

Emilio Bonifacio – 0-for-5, Just doing a friendly check-in on our favorite April 7th pickup.

Dan Uggla – HR yesterday and 5 homers in the last 10 games.  Not hitting for much average, but you didn’t expect him to do that anyway.

David Ortiz – Hit sixth again.  You know what’s been under reported in all of this?  Who’s now hitting third… J.D. Drew.  Zoinks!

Khalil Greene – It’s been a bad year for the Silent H’s as Khalil heads to the DL with anxiety disorder.  If there’s a bright side to this sad, sad story, maybe the anxiety will cause his ugly-ass hair to fall out.

(Note from Grey:  Stephen, who you may recognize from his comments, will be doing a weekly feature about fantasy baseball prospects down on the farm.  Enjoy…)

Neftali Feliz – Texas Rangers – SP at AAA

The hidden gem in the Teixeira summer rental/trade from the Atlanta Braves back in 2007 (Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Salty, Beau Jones, and Feliz for Teixeira and Ron Mahey) is starting to live up to his silent hype (pretty sure that trade is textbook fleecing).  Ranked by Baseball America as the 10th top prospect in the minors and the top prospect in the Rangers system is the quietest arm in the minors.  That is pretty impressive with the high talent depth of the Rangers farm.  Everyone talks about Hanson and Price, but where does Feliz fall then?  There must be reason that the pitching starved Rangers haven’t called him up yet.

Feliz may be happy, but his manager must swear he’s bi-polar watching this mighty fine talent.  Despite his lack of control (4.2 BB/9 career minor league), the eye popping K-rate (11 K/9 career) makes anyone drool.   This season the K-rate is 9.4K/9, but the walks have raised to 5.3BB/9.  It is the walks that are killing his rise to the big show.   Price is sitting at 9.2k/9 but has been walking 4 batters per.  Hanson has a 12k/9  and a 2.5BB/9 to his name.  But what Feliz has going for him is he has only allowed 6 homers in 229 innings.  Even more impressive is he has only allowed one, yes 1, this year and he is pitching in the PCL league.  For those who do not know the PCL, or the Pacific Coast League, its like the homerun derby for top hitting prospects.  However, Tim Lincecum earned a 14K/9 back in 2007.

Having recently turn 21, Feliz has plenty of time to improve his control, but how long does Texas allow their prized pitcher stay in AAA?  More like, are the Rangers for real this year?  Sitting atop the West, Texas might rush Feliz to the bigs sometime in the near future.  No pitcher is safe to stay healthy… ever!  Plus, Arlington destroys pitchers, though if he can keep that homerun ratio the same and cut his walks he may thrive sooner rather than latter.  But buyers beware.  I would not use a waiver priority on Feliz unless you have had your Pepcid AC for the day. Or if your WHIP is, well, A-M-A-Z-I-N-G!!!

Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates – OF at AAA

Seems that McCutchen was pushed to the gutter once Nyjer Morgan started raking to start the season.  Just three months ago during spring training the hot debate was Morgan, Steven Pearce or McCutchen going to make the team.  While, we all know how that has turned out.  Pearce seems destined to stay in the minors until there is a 1B job or an abundance of injuries and McCutchen is befuddled that Craig Monroe and Delwyn Young continue to tromp their ineptitude out to center-field.

As the 33rd ranked prospect according to Baseball America, and the 2nd ranked prospect in the Pirate’s farm Andrew is proving to be adept at his job.  Drafted in the first round back in 2005 straight out of high school, he has never spent more than one full season at each level.  Bred for speed, his thieving skills is his strength but also his bane.  Having stolen 34 bases last year he was caught 19 times.  This year’s ratio is exponentially better having succeeded in 9 of his 10 chances.  He isn’t much of a power hitter and his .190 ISO is misleading because of his 8 triples.  Last year he hit 9 HR in 512 AB.  He doesn’t strike out much (10% K-rate) and walks near the same (8.1% BB-rate), but doesn’t provide much fantasy upside.  That’s like a Crawford-lite, or a Pierre-esque upside for fantasy owners.

The Pirates have a tremendous talent in McCutchen because of his stellar defense and PED-enhanced Juan Pierre-esque hitting and running abilities.  As a fantasy owner he is on my radar only for the potential steals and runs.  I only envision seeing his call up when the brass decide that Monroe and Young are done – so, after the All-Star break.