Trouble ahead, Casey Jones, if you think Matt Cain is ’08 Lincecum.  I went over why this doode was faux-Cain two weeks go when I broke down FIP.  Now everyone is saying to sell high on him.  And by everyone, I mean ESPN.  Two weeks late, guys.  Went there already.  Oh, and I’m not going to link to them, because, as Berry said, that’s what they want.  Well, I want Berry to say I told him not to draft Nolasco and then he went and said Nolasco was in store for a great year.  When Berry says, I told him so.  I’ll link to them.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah!  Cain!  So you got your lugwrench out and you’re trying to figure out how to make Cain able again.  The discrepancy between where Cain is now and where he should be is scary like Carol Channing without makeup.  Why?  Blah blah blah Lower K rate, very high strand rate… yadda yadda yadda… I went over it two weeks ago.  Open that FIP link.  And, yes, I touted the beejesus out of Cain in the preseason and I own him on a few teams.  And, yes, I’d actually feel better if his ERA was just in the low fours like it should be.  Don’t overrate his current ERA.  You know that.  So everyone’s zigging as they try to sell Cain, what do you do?  Zag?  Do you have the alligator blood to buy him for cheap?  Maybe.  It’s hard to sell a guy when their player news is calling for a regression.  It’s like running headlong into projectile vomit.  Then again, someone will drop some Liquid Paper on his stats any day now.  Now for the good news, his last time out he dropped his FIP from 4.85 to a more manageable 4.36.  One more strong start and who knows maybe he can actually be a 4.00 pitcher.  He’s not, I repeat, not a 2.40 ERA pitcher right now, but as long as you keep that in mind, you should be all right.  So sell him if you can get a decent deal, or buy him, but know what you’re getting.  Right now, people want to sell him so bad, you may actually get a decent deal for him.  He’s not terrible, just not quite what he’s been showing.  (BTW, CBS was touting Mark Reynolds as a buy this week.  I told you to buy him in March.  ESPN told you to sell Cain and Jurrjens this week.  I told you that two weeks ago.  If I didn’t write this shizz, I’d be reading it too.  Hey, wait a minute, my ‘stache looks weird with my bigger head.)  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell for this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

J.P. Izzywheelfourson – Not sure if people are already done with the Rays and their bullpen shituation, but I’d hold for another week or two because whoever emerges will have value.  For full disclosure, I’m currently holding Wheeler on some teams.  No one else.

Jeff Clement – Honestly, I don’t know if he’s going to get called up with Johjima on the DL with a broken thumbkin, but if Clement gets the call, he’ll be worth a spot in mixed leagues for the catching deprived.  Right now, I’d own him in AL-Only leagues.  Recognize!

Jake Fox – Went over picking up Jake Fox yesterday.  Cliff Notes version:  The use of the phrase, “…like Tyra Banks would say, he can (hit) fiercely,” was an allusion to the reality show, America’s Next Top Model, where Tyra Banks, a former top model and terrible TV host, critiques aspiring models with the noted fashion photographer, Nigel Barker.  When an aspiring model performs well in a challenge, she’s said to be “fierce.”  So Grey is saying Jake Fox can hit well.

Fernando Martinez – As we continue our rookie nookie portion of our program, Martinez may only be up for a week or two.  I think he’s way too raw at this point in 12 team mixed leagues, so I haven’t grabbed him anywhere, but ya never know.

Tommy Hanson – Has to be up very soon.  Medlen’s been garbage.  We need Coach Leak to get the crowd started, “Let him play… Let him play…”

Luke Scott – He might only hit five homers in June, but they’ll probably come in the next week.

Alcides Escobar – Someone said something in the comments the other day that was funny, “If Web Gems is a category, this guy would be a 1st rounder.”  Or something like that, I’m paraphrasing and I don’t even know who said it and I didn’t feel like searching… Anyhoo, the Brewers put Escobar at 2nd base the day after Weeks went down.  Curious?  Yeah, they’re going to call him up.  Escobar probably won’t give you much offensively this year, except for steals.  SAGNOF!

J.A. Happ – Pickin’ up the Happy dugout!  What, no Ice Cube fans?  For shame.  Happ’s in a crizzappy park, but he gets the Nats and Padres in Petco next.

Russell Martin – Funny thing happened on the way to June.  Martin forgot he was a 1st half hitter. Anyone that actually wasted a draft pick on this catcher can’t be happy.  Right now, they’re thinking about how they could’ve punted the catcher spot, grabbed Varitek late and had 10 homers.  And they’re right, suckas!  Schadenfreude!  That doesn’t mean you can’t exploit their fragile sense of self.  Nietzsche!   Right now, they’d probably give you Martin for a side order of meatballs.  Great movie!  I’d prefer to have Martin than Varitek (or insert random catcher schmohawk that you own) for the rest of the year, so if you can weasel Martin out of someone’s clutches, consent granted.

SELL

Brandon Phillips – I was a big supporter of Phillips this year and still am, but only if he can prove healthy, and that but is J. Lo-sized.  I have a sneaky suspicion that Phillips is going to come back, then realize he can’t play with his hairline fracture on his thumb and go to the DL for 6 weeks.  Monitor him and field offers, so you seem like you’re, a, hip to the game.

Nick Johnson – You’ve been bamboozled.  Yes, you have.  No, he’s not going to stay healthy.  Nope.  Sorry.  Oh, and healthy Johnson has four homers.  Yawstipating.

Jorge De La Rosa – Not sure if I mentioned this when it happened, but I picked up George of the Rose the other day.  But benched him for his first start with me because I didn’t trust him.  He went three and a third innings and gave up seven runs.  Tragedy and trajectory towards the TV averted.  I dropped him the next day.

Manny Parra – You might’ve only owned him because of me so let me be the one to break it to you.  Commandment #1, Pitchers shall not issue walks.  Parra, go to hell.

 
  1. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    Russ Martin actually got dropped yesterday in my league (owner had an injury-caused roster crunch and apparently is going to roll with Inge)….too bad I’m #9 on the waiver waiting list.

  2. s221506 says:
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    #

    @Grey I

    Interested in your thoughts on this trade. I could use some rosters space… but am I giving to much?

    Have Wieters:

    Trade:Soto, Pierre, Manny
    For: Markakis, Dukes?

    Or:

    Holiday, Soto
    For Markakis, Dukes

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    hanson called up. just kidding but i wanted to feel the exitement for a second myself

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @s221506: I agreed with others in the other post. It’s a bit much on both accounts, but Soto, Holliday works better. I think you could get better than Dukes.

    @AL KOHOLIC: Ha!

  5. JR says:
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    @Grey: I’m looking for a fill-in for Iannetta. Who do you like: Hernandez, Snyder, Shoppach?

    And thank you, sir, in advance. I don’t say that often enough.

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JR: Ramon… No problem.

  7. Matt says:
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    I traded away Cain and Dice-K for Beckett a couple days ago. Do you think I got enough value?

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Matt: I’d still want Beckett there.

    @Dingo: That’s still a great trade for you. Above, I didn’t say not to sell Cain, just said weigh your options.

  9. Richard says:
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    Hold or Sell with Werth

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Richard: Depends what you’re getting from him. He’s a 20/20/.265 hitter, so that’s what you have.

  11. Heard if Davis doesn’t cut down his Ks he’s gonna be sent down. How likely is this? It’s seemingly become increasingly likely that my 4th and 5th round picks of Davis and Alexei in a keeper league won’t be kept.

  12. albertalbert says:
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    @Grey:
    have you given up on beltre? i’m wanting too, but that would mean that i was wrong about him preseason. if i dropped him, i could pick up some crappy Rays reliever.
    It’s like finding out your blind date has a horse face, then splitting before dinner to go home and do chores.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @bpasinko: It’s possible, I guess, but I’d be surprised if Davis gets sent down. The Rangers had to know who Davis was when they called him up. Not like he wasn’t K’ing in the minors.

    @albertalbert: Yeah, I’m done with Beltre.

  14. Dingo says:
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    @Grey: I didn’t mean to disparage your advice at all, as it was very valuable in helping me get that trade done. I was just trying to claim that I jumped on the sell-high-on-Cain bandwagon even earlier.

  15. Raleigh Bob says:
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    Care to reorder your best-to-worst “Gamel, Reimold, Coghlan, Parra, LaPorta” sequence?

  16. Matt says:
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    @Grey: Thanks for the feedback. I am currently trying to swing a trade to acquire Lackey. What kind of numbers do you think would be reasonable for me to expect from him?

  17. TheQuestforMerlin says:
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    Hi Grey,

    My SP staff: Beckett, Haren, Gollardo, Kershaw, Edwin Jackson.

    Volstad has just been dropped onto waivers, do I add him over any starters (Do you like him better than Kershaw or Jackson this year?) or would you try and add him and drop a random other (RP, or “guy-on-bench”).

    Cheers!

    TQ4M

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Matt: 10 Wins, 3.50-.375 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 20 starts…

  19. @grey: There are rumors of Hurdle being fired over the weekend, would that be beneficial to the Colorado youngsters? IE Stewart getting full PT, Hawpe traded, maybe carlos gonzalez callup?

    Better MI pickup: alicedes escobar, gordon beckham?

    Thanks…

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Not idea what direction the Rox would go, but the youngsters playing is probably the way they would go. I said a month ago I thought Atkins would get traded.

    Escobar

  21. Mike says:
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    @matthole:
    BECKHAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  22. Mike says:
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    @Mike:

    I guess that’s why I’m not a fantasy expert. And I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Sigh.

  23. Mike says:
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    I wonder if Tulo will improve with a Hurdle firing?

  24. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    knew it,sit lilly pad today against the dodgers and he`s looking great,actually when im already like a 3 and 4 in era and whip i had nothing to loose pitching him,

  25. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Mike: maybe he can spark fowler into running again also

  26. @grey: How do you gauge when youre ahead enough in cats that you can sell off….

    IE: Im currently first in SBs and 15 ahead of the next guy…how much separation or at which point in the season would u feel confident enough that you can trade that strength like an ellsbury to fill other needs…

    Thanks

  27. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Grey: Hey Mr. Big Head, you think this is the only site with great writing and timely advice?

    Here’s something I just found on a rival site:

    “Cardinals activated OF Ryan Ludwick from the 15-day disabled list. Ludwick will be an important part of the St. Louis lineup, and hopefully yours as well.”

    Boo-ya!

    You: “Running headling into projectile vomit.” Me: Audible laughter.

  28. Quintero says:
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    That Parra section is breaking my heart(as if Kris Medlen and David Huff didn’t break it enough…).

  29. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @matthole: when theres about 40 games left and you have a decent lead,maybe a few more games but nothing is safe before the break for sure

  30. Euroalien says:
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    12 Team 5 x 5 Keeper League……. Dealing from a strong pitching base, badly in need of hitting…….. Which side of these deals do you like? I get Nelson Cruz and Loney (or Rasmus) for Lincecum and Kendrick? Or I get Carlos Lee for Lincecum?

  31. Hardcore Midget says:
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    12 team H2H keeper league, with quality starts as one of the pitching categories.

    Trade Francisco Corder for Ted Lilly?
    Would leave me with Broxton, Frank Francisco and Rafael Soriano as my closers.

  32. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    I have Bartlett and would like to add Zobrist. However, am worried that when Iwamura gets healthy, things will be crowded (with Aybar as well). Can I count on Bartlett and Zobrist getting full playing time? If not, a better option at Zobrist level?

  33. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Added: When Bartlett healthy too.

  34. Hardcore Midget says:
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    @Simply Fred: I think I read that Iwamura is done for the year.

  35. Matt Sorrento says:
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    @Simply Fred:
    Iwamura is out for the year, the last I knew. I think Zobrist will get playing time for a while.

  36. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Wow! Cool! So, no issues with PT for Bartlett and Zobrist?

  37. bobbo says:
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    @Euroalien: I see you’re still moving Lincecum… have you decided that 110 games of Carlos Lee vs. whoever else you are starting at OF right now will get you into the money this year? (I doubt it)

  38. Scott says:
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    @matthole: You could always apply mathematics. For example, if you have a guy that has 150 k’s by August 1, you can expect him to get 75 more for the rest of the season. If you trade him to the guy behind you and you replace him with a guy that will get 50 more and the other owner replaces a similar guy on his roster with your guy, he will gain 50 k’s on you through the rest of the season (the net 25 you lose + the net 25 he gains). This is not exact and is harder to do with some players, like Howard who hits many more HR’s in the second half and Ellsbury who stopped running last year and may do the same this year.

  39. Scott says:
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    Hurdle fired, replaced by former Dodger and Pirate manager Jim Tracy.

  40. RIP Harry says:
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    which side: sandoval ( C-elig) and hunter for CC and Francisco?

  41. Euroalien says:
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    @bobbo: You’re probably right about Lee….. I thought the other offer wasn’t bad. Cruz and Loney are a lot better than the likes of G. Parra, S. Hairston, H. Matsui and even Morales who I have active right now……

  42. RIP Harry says:
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    which side: CC and Francisco for Hunter and Sandoval (C- elig) ?

  43. bobbo says:
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    C-Bills… stop giving up singles!

  44. bobbo says:
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    @Euroalien: Surely there are guys on your waiver who can help you out. Loney hasn’t exactly been lighting it up, and I’m not high on Cruz.

  45. bobbo says:
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    Damnit… I just got Vazquez’ed by Billingsley (one bad inning after 6 pristine).

  46. Does anyone have any thoughts on how a Bedard trade would affect him?

    Better if he goes to the Phillies? Worth trading now because of injury and possibility he gets traded to a situation that can hurt his value?

  47. gosh dangit i come home KEMP has hit a homer, awesome, he’s on my team, thats cool, but he’s batting fricking 7th again!!!!!!

    JOE TORRE IF YOU READ RAZZBALL GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS AND MOVE THIS DUDE UP THE LINE UP ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDIN ME! HAVE YOU WENT SENILE!!!!

  48. iS GRABOW IN THE CLOSER PICTURE OR NOT NOW?

  49. Jobu's rum says:
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    @Tony Y: You know, as a Kemp owner I was pretty miffed about his spot in the order (all season) but I think I actually helps his ability to steal. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think he has a better shot at the green light with shizzy hitters behind him.

  50. @Jobu’s rum: maybe but with his speed he COULD run at any spot, you dont want him running into outs when Manny was up or Eithier if he batted before them before Eithier sucked, which was before manny got suspended…. but ya, i can see that but then again I think its stupid batting him there, he’s roughly a .290-300 hitter that can go 25/35 in his sleep if he gets the AB’s.

    WEAK SAUCE JOE won’t bump him up tho because he’s old and stubborn!

  51. How about my pitching line on the week: 12 teamer H2H

    4-0 3 sv 7R 2HR 7BB 41K’s 1.54 ERA 0.83 WHIP 5 QS’s

    Carpenter was my lone QS that went 8 innings got 10 K’s and a No Decision, i love this week… besides CQ going on the DL and kemp batting 7th and 8th!

  52. @Grey: For no reason other than a minimal MLB schedule and far too much time on his owners hands, Tulowitzki even aggravates his owners on off days. This is not healthy. Supposing that a Hurdle firing will not ignite production out of Tulo, are any of the ’09 Brat Pack of Jakie Fox, “Good Beer” Reimold, Zorbist, Clement, etc. better options?
    & on the mound, might you accept an offer of either Hanson or Price for the struggling Liriano?

  53. Jobu's rum says:
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    @Tony Y: As for Grabow, I certainly hope he’s in the mix. I’m always trying to turn tricks on Save St. and I’m still leaning into Grabow’s car window.

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Depends what your team has. For instance, if I had Victorino and Crawford and was up in steals, then I’d sell one. Hope that helps.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Hehe

    @Scott: Oh, that’s terrifically awful move. Tracy’s one of the worst managers of all time. Not to mention, he was the bench coach for Hurdle. Way to let Hurdle take the fall and stay on to collect scraps. I hate Jim Tracy.

    @zombie: In the right situation, I’d take Hanson or Price over Liriano. I’d want Zobrist starting for me right now over Tulo, but I wouldn’t drop Tulo.

  55. Zebo says:
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    trade Cain for Holliday?

  56. mauer for rios? should it be alarming that Rios hasnt done anything yet and Tor is tops in offense or is it a good sell off of mauer since rios is still at a low….have inge for C as replacement too

    Thanks

  57. Joel says:
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    I have 7 OFs, excess SBs.

    Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Quentin straight up on the table. Pull the trigger with the risk in mind?

  58. @ grey, thanks…does help

  59. john says:
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    @Jobu’s rum: capps is supposedly back already..the arm is tender to the touch but he can still pitch according to yahoo

  60. RIP Harry says:
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    which side : sandoval (C-elig) and hunter for CC and francisco?

  61. Swass says:
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    NELSON CRUZ IS THE BALLS

  62. Greg says:
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    Matt Wieters everyone… f-yeah!

  63. ScoutAbout says:
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    With Quentin finally on the DL I have one empty roster spot. I could really use some power right now, but not sure where I would roster it anyway with Sandoval (assuming he is back soon), Howard/Votto, Utley, Rollins/Alexei/Peralta, Kemp/Rios/Ellsbury/Alexei. With Votto back he is ensconced in my Util slot. Should I try to pick up some power off the waiver wire to start at 3B since Cantu has cooled off? Cheap power seems easier to come by in an OF, but not sure who I would sit. Any ideas? Should I just keep rolling with the offense I have and pick up Hanson to stash away?

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Zebo: I’d want Holliday.

    @matthole: I’d take Rios.

    @Joel: I’d take Quentin.

    @RIP Harry: CC’s side.

    @ScoutAbout: If you have all your slots filled with guys that are playing, even if not playing well, I’d gamble on Hanson for right now.

  65. PowerTrips says:
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    Franklin for the Cards has looked good so far this year…If he faltered do you have a strong inclination toward Motte or Perez as the guy Larussa would go to next…any idea?

  66. ScoutAbout says:
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    @Grey: Thanks! Just picked him up.

  67. Adrian Beltre or Edwin Encarnacion once Edwin gets off the DL? Thanks

  68. @ScoutAbout: I’d consider grabbing Luke Scott for the weekend. He crushed the Tigers last year and did so again last night.

  69. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Casey Jones, you’re high on cocaine if you think I’m gonna buy Luke Scott……………

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PowerTrips: Probably Motte, but there’s no reason to think it’s going to happen.

    @Maitland: Tossup, whoever’s currently hotter. Probably go with the unknown of EE at this point.

    @BigFatHippo: I have him in a 12 team league right now filling in for Quentin and he’s been fine. Probably hit 2 homers this weekend.

  71. BigFatHippo says:
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    @PowerTrips: Tony ain’t making any closer moves now, Franklin is the closer.

    Motte and Perez get the eighth depending on matchup and McClellan gets in if a pitcher may have to go more than one inning. Don’t add any of these guys, waste of time.

  72. Pops says:
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    Best. Header. Ever

    I’ve got some bad news. Had to put down Ian Stewart this morning. Watch him as he will go 2- 4 with a bomb and 3 RBI off of Chris Young tonight.

  73. Eric H. says:
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    Trying to make up some ground in the power categories. Which two out of the following three would you prefer: Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, Nolan Reimold.

  74. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Hehe, just pullin yer chain. Yeah, you go boy, play some Luke Scott while Scott Hairston get me 2 hits this weekend………

  75. Choo isn’t starting tonight and I’d rather almost leave him in than put TULO in?

    sad sad sad… what to do….

  76. Greg says:
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    What’s up with Outman who had no K’s and now has 7 as it stands right now…

  77. Greg says:
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    (no K’s last outing)

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric H.: Pence/Werth

    @Tony Y: Tulo’s facing Chris Young in Colorado.

    @Greg: The Rangers are what’s up. They like to swing at everything.

  79. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Greg: He’s a St Louis boy, we know how to strike people out, well, me with a whiffleball………….

    Fluke, don’t count on a lot of Ks, but he’s been a good pitcher everywhere he’s been.

  80. albertalbert says:
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    not high on cruz?

    24/12/32/9 .293/.355/.573

    vs

    31/3/30/11 .345/.446/.503

    vs

    34/13/35/10 .282/.354/.569

    that’s cruz vs d wright vs kinsler

    in my league, cruz was top 24 in all players in espn’s player rater.

  81. Kris says:
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    Anyone starting Tallboy at Coors tonight?

  82. ScoutAbout says:
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    @Pops: And steal a base to boot.

  83. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Fransucksso at TB tomorrow?

  84. Greg says:
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    Will Happ be Crapp today?

  85. BigFatHippo says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Versus Price, I’m actually thinking about it……….don’t think Hippo <———- Creepy guy in my subconscious is whispering again.

  86. @Grey: tulo career vs. CYOUNG in 10 abs’…. 2-10 with two singles…. and the way he’s been hitting i dont know if it would matter if he’s at a tee ball field. Coors seems to be nothing special since Holliday left and Atkins got washed up….

  87. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Greg: I like Happ, I’m throwing him, feel like I’m talking to myself btw, “what’s up Greg? Nothin, Greg”

  88. oakland has 8 hits and Holliday is 0-4… UNREAL….

  89. BigFatHippo says:
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    ESPN is having live look in’s at Strasburg pitching tonight, count me interested………

  90. Greg says:
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    I know wtf Holliday worthless bastard.

  91. Doc says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Picked up Happ a couple days ago for these next 2 starts. So I’m sure he’ll get shelled.

  92. @Greg: he’s been decent lately when you look at his last 30 days or whatever but christ, what happened to the days of 3-4 every night… oh i know he got traded… please trade him again, pleaseeeeeeeeeeee….. billy beane i’m talking to you, stop ruining matt’s career and my fantasy team!

  93. Doc says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Everytime I watch Strasburg I see these 12 year olds swinging at sliders 2.3 miles outside the zone. They look like Fonzi Soriano up there.

    ESPN, how do we talk about Swine Flu? Oh!

  94. Greg says:
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    Holliday has been so disappointing this year… I knew he would bust somewhat and I tried to trade him but he’s been swinging pretty badly (I’ve watched him live).

  95. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Doc: Why didn’t you tell me that at 5:30 you bast……..uh, Huckleberry………

  96. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Doc: At least ESPN plays more music than Music TeleVision……

  97. Doc says:
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    Strasburg, Weiters and Bruce walk into a bar . . .

  98. Doc says:
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    Wieters that is. Strasburg gives up a donkey donk. I’m dropping him!!

  99. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Doc: I’ll have a phenom on the rocks….

  100. Greg says:
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    We need a razzball chatroom…

  101. Doc says:
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    @Greg: Sounds like an idea.

  102. @Grey: @ANYONE….ok i’m going to the store, help me with this for when i get back:

    I’m SP Heavy: Haren, shields, beckett, wainwright, carpeneter, jurrjens, slowey and k. escobar on the DL

    I’m Short on power and own D. Wright.

    Me and the owner of MIGGY have shot lots of dimwitted ideas back and forth, he wants wright…

    I’m thinking My Wright & a SP from above for his

    Miggy and a closer (mariano rivera, fuentes, wood, bailey, wuertz)

    So which starting pitcher should I THROW IN, and which CLOSER SHOULD I ASK FOR!?

  103. Doc says:
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    I think Jake Fox could hit a HR every at bat and he won’t start. Seems like my Cubs should trade him to an AL team for somebody filled with nougaty greatness.

  104. Pops says:
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    @bpasinko: Davis 0 – 4 with 4 k’s tonight. This is getting a little ridiculous.