Everyone likes a comeback story.  Especially if you snag one at a discount on draft day because they either fell off the radars or they were deemed too risky.

There are a number of intriguing bounceback candidates in 2008 (Bedard, Wainwright, Bonderman, etc.) so we thought we’d look back over the past couple of years to see if there were any learnings that can help in assessing this year’s crop.

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Brandon Morrow is out indefinitely due to forearm soreness.  Punt!  I really liked Morrow going into this season.  There’s something to a reliever being converted to a starter in their first year.  They just get up for the challenge or something.  Whatever the case may be, Brandon doesn’t seem up for the challenge any morrow.  You don’t want to deal with this meshugas.  If it’s Ervin Santana, then you draft him later and hold out some hope.  If it’s a 4th to 5th starter (Morrow), why bother?  You wanna give to charity, the March of Dimes could use your help.  Or Jerry Lewis.  Anyway, here’s some other things I’ve seen so far in spring training regarding fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – He’s injured.  If I were a spiteful person, I would say it serves you right for drafting Mauer.  Not sure why anyone drafts this guy, but he’s struggling with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  He’s not going to steal any bases this year, so you’re basically drafting a no-speed Polanco at catcher in the first 8 rounds.  Eh, you do what you do.  I’m done getting aggravated.

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Derek Carty of The Hardball Times was the host this past week of Fantasy Roundtable. Besides serving a lovely crumb cake and spicing up the coffee with a little Bailey’s, he posed the following question:

What do you think has a greater impact on one’s ability to win a fantasy baseball league: player evaluation or strategy?

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I went through my top 100 and top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball and I chose a guy every 12 or so picks to make up my ideal team if I were in a Razzball Commenter League (so 12 team, 5×5, 5 OFs, etc.).  Obviously this is a team I probably would never get, because each draft unfolds differently, but if a draft unfolded exactly how I wanted it, this is how my best 2009 fantasy baseball draft would turn out.  But, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, I held myself to the false constraint of not being able to choose more than one guy every 12 picks, so I still didn’t get everyone I would’ve wanted.

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Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  So in this installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers we’re going to look at some 2nd basemen numbers and see if we can figure out why one is touted more than the other.  BTW, this is the first installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, I’m only acting like I’ve done it before because I’m gooftarded.

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We’ve gone over whether or not you should grab a starter early, Rudy’s fantasy baseball strategy says sure, why not?  My fantasy baseball strategy says not so much.  Whichever strategy you subscribe to, you’re still going to need some late round value.  The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  As I used to call Cliff Notes in college, this is a companion piece.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

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Oh, no, he dint!  Oh, yes, I did!  David Ortiz got stamped with the schmohawk label and shoved into the overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball thingamajiggywitit.  How’s dem apples?  Sour?  Good, they’re supposed to be.  Ortiz doesn’t get to taste my Delicious apples.  With Facebook’s 25 Inane Things About Yourself That No One Cares About, Not Even Your Mother making the rounds, I figured I’d crib that shizz for David Ortiz.  Only I’m going to do one thing, because 25 is a ridiculously large number.  I can’t even count that high when I’m drunk.  And right now I’m drunk on hate!  For Ortiz.  Not you.  You I like.  Anyway, why’s David Ortiz overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball?

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Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

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I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2009 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman -  “For today’s game of Jew or Not a Jew… Ryan Zimmerman.”

Pablo Sandoval – He’s not fat, he’s jolly.  I still prefer him more as a catcher, but in deep leagues I could see the case made for Sandoval as a 3rd baseman, especially with the loss of A-Rod.

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Ervin Santana is likely headed to the DL and we hate to be the ones to say, “I told you so,” but we did. We told you 20 risky pitchers to be careful of for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Rudy said this about Ervin Santana, “Santana bounced back from a Homeschooled 2007 (1-10, 8.38 ERA on road) to have a career year in 2008.  He’s maintained steady pitch counts the last 3 years but his growing over-reliance on his slider (21% in ‘06 to 33% in ‘08) and near-abandoning of the changeup (9.6% to 3.9%) make him a riskier than average proposition in 2009.”  And that’s me quoting Rudy!  If you’ve drafted Ervin already, Rudy put the kavorka on you.  To reverse the hex, you need a buzzard’s wing, seven bottles of Tabasco, a beetle and a solid three other starters.

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