Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mets Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of MetsBlog.

1) Carlos Delgado seemed done in 2007, then he wasn’t done in 2008. In 2009, done or not done and why?

I bet, like in 2008, he’s some place in the middle again. He’s not getting younger, so to expect an improvement from last season would be unrealistic. He and the team will tell you he had mechanical and mental hitches that hurt him in the start of the season, it wasn’t physical. Frankly, I prefer it be physical, because, if healthy, he’d be all set. However, what’s to say he doesn’t slide back in to those mechanical mistakes again.

2) John Maine battled some injuries in 2008, can we expect a bounce back in 2009 to a sub-4 ERA?

He’s struggling in spring training, but he says he is working on different things, from different pitches to adjustments in his delivery.

Maine is very hard on himself, and he goes in to mental funks, that translate in rough stretches during the season. He knows he needs to stop thinking, and just let the ball rip, like he was doing at the start of last season.

The key for him will be whether he can focus, stop overthinking, and create a better out pitch to keep batters from fouling off so many pitches, which often leads him to 90–pitch counts in the fourth inning.

3) Not sure if you play fantasy baseball, but even if you don’t you should be able to answer this. Reyes or Wright?

Funny you should ask, because I was in this exact position on Sunday during my league’s draft. We have an extensive prospects and keeper system, that has allowed me to carry Ryan Zimmerman since he was in Double-A. I am using him, finally, as my starting third baseman – in a head-to-head league with 16 teams, and 16 roster spots. So, because I do not have a starting shortstop, I selected Reyes with second overall pick in the draft, ahead of Wright and Hanley Ramirez. Wright was taken with the next pick.

4) How do you think Citi-Field will play? Pitcher’s park? Hitter’s park? Why?

I have no idea, and neither does any one else. I asked Jeff Wilpon this very question, when I talked with him during spring training, and he said there have been no indications yet, and nobody will really know until the team starts playing in April – and even then it will likely change as the weather warms up, the wind patterns change and it gets more humid in the summer. I believe, however, they want it to be a pitcher’s park, consistent with the team’s history.

5) Luis Castillo is projected for 490 ABs and 0 HRs. That would be a sub-Herculean achievement. Think he can pull it off?

My readers at MetsBlog.com like to call him Slappy McSingleton, but, like Clark Kent in a phone booth, turning in to Superman, he becomes Slappy McHomerton at least once or twice per season when batting from the right side of the plate – I expect the same in 2009.

I am far more concerned with his OBP than his home run totals, though.

Alas, for now the Rays are Price-less.  (To recall a conversation I once had with my grandmother after she threw out my 1986 Sportsflic Jose Canseco rookie card, “That card was priceless!”  “Yeah, because it wasn’t worth shit.”)  Frankly, I’m surprised the Rays sent David Price down.  I thought he would start in the bullpen then get starts by the end of April/beginning of May, accumulating 150 innings.  Jason Hammel and Niemann! are far from reliable guys for a team that is supposed to be in the AL East race, but I underestimated the Rays’ thriftiness.  Why are we serving Gulden’s when French’s is twenty-seven cents cheaper?! In the comments on the 2009 Rays fantasy baseball preview, Rudy said I was being too optimistic.  Looks like I was.  Guess that’s why I rock a ’stache and Rudy has the much more with-it ‘fro.  I’d hold Price in 10 team mixed leagues and deeper.  My prediction is we see Price by mid-May in the majors and he makes a fantasy impact for his patient owners.  If patience is the key, then show me the lock.  Anyway, here’s what else has been going on in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Matt Wieters – I’ve been saying all along that he’s headed to the minors.  So one out of two ain’t bad.  Wieters will be flying into Norfolk International Airport sometime on Monday night.  Looks like another financial decision.  He should be back with the club by mid-May.  If you drafted him, you have to wait on him.  Well, I mean you don’t have to, but what was the point otherwise.  When Gregg Zaun heard the news, he should have had this to say, “If getting demoted so I can start doesn’t kick you in the pants, nothing will.”

Daniel Murphy – I’ve been too lax in mentioning this guy.  Word out of the foothills of St. Lucie is Murphy is batting 2nd.  This is great news for a guy who rocks a solid OBP.  He could be the Mets answer to Kelly Johnson.  It’s more attractive at 2nd base, but there’s a place on some teams for that in the outfield.

Ervin Santana – Rudy told you 20 risky pitchers.  Ervin was one.  You didn’t wanna believe it.  It’s the ‘fro, yo!  (Easy, TCBY.  That’s not fro-yo.)

Shawn Hill – Someone in the comments nicknamed him Baby Webb.  I have no idea why, but Baby Webb is now on the Padres.  Um, a pitcher I like pitching in Petco?  Give me a pen and show me the X.

Kelvim Escobar – He made Rudy’s bounceback pitchers post.  He says you’re welcome.

Tommy Hanson – Maybe he’ll be back in September.  Cut him outside of keepers.

Rafael Soriano – Going to the DL.  In other news, Chipper’s probably hurt too.

Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg – Lou will decide this weekend if the Cubs want to begin the year by giving up runs in the eighth or the ninth.

Todd Helton – Retire for the sake of the Rockies.

John Lackey – Forearm tightness.  This is almost as surprising as the Soriano injury.  I’d never expect more than 25 starts from Lackey.

Justin Duchscherer – To start season on the DL?  No way! *Grey turns off faux shock*

Chris Davis – In spring, hitting bombs, striking out and taking names.  And that’s what you should expect in the season, too.

Anderson Hernandez – Hurt.  You can’t keep Ronnie Belliard down!

Felipe Lopez – Going to be leading off and he wants to steal a lot of bases.  He’s already stolen 44 in a season.  He’s eligible all over.  I’m thinking of taking him 13 times in my next draft.

David Aardsma – I suppose he could win the closer job in Seattle, but… David Aardsma?  Eh.

Ryan Braun – He’s hurting right now.  He’s not saying anything because he’s a gamer, but he’s unable to swing a bat.  Frankly, I’m a bit worried.  It was one thing for him to have issues last September, but now they’re returning in April.  I’d still draft him in the first round, but I’d expect a slow start.

Scott Lewis – Him and Anthony Reyes might deserve their own posts, but they’re not getting them just yet.  Scott Lewis doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but then he put up numbers in the minors like he does.  I’d prefer a NL fifth starter (think: Randy Wolf) over a guy with a mid-80s fastball pitching in the AL.  Oh, and he gives up flyballs.  Pass.

Anthony Reyes – I’m a bit of a sucker for a failed prospect making good on old promises (See continuing admiration for Alex Gordon).  Don’t even get me started with my love for guys that iron their hat brim.  So it comes with little shock, I like Reyes.  I like him more than the aforementioned Lewis.  Again, I prefer to go NL in mixed leagues when this deep into starters and I wouldn’t own Reyes in a ten team league yet, but he has good stuff.  He’s an injury risk so don’t pay too much.  Actually, don’t pay anything for either of these guys.  You should be dropping lame bench hitters to take a chance on Reyes.  I see Ryan Church.  I dump Ryan Church for Anthony Reyes.

Micah Owings – You never know how these things turn out.  Fifth starter on the Reds emerges?  Could be.  I’d own him before two other Reds starters.

George Sherrill – He’s choking on turkey bones so far this spring and this year he has Chris Ray to step in and resume closer duties.  Chris Ray may be getting saves as soon as mid-April.

Brian Fuentes – Every year some closers come out of nowhere and erase any faith we had in them coming into the year.  I think this year is Fuentes’s.  His velocity is way down because of a bad back.  Bad backs linger and velocity issues don’t just go away.  With two quality replacements behind him, I think if you own Fuentes, you might want to start making other plans.

Dallas McPherson – Punt.

Adam Jones – Ty Wigginton, “Dude, you totally bogarted my whole box of Twinkies!”  Adam Jones, “Mea culpa, my man.  I was out stealing bags and hitting home runs this spring, and every time I looked up I would see Felix and Adam and I kept reading Pie Eaton.”

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last year, Razzball Commenter League winner was given carte blanche to write a post for the site.  If you’re interested, I think there’s still room in the our fantasy baseball leagues for one or two more people.  Comment on that post, if you want in.)

Welcome to the first annual p0rk burn “Point/Counter-Point.” As the winner of the seminal Razzball Commenter League I’ve graciously been given the opportunity to write a post. As I’m neither funny nor knowledgeable, this was the only way I’d get my name on the Razzball marquee. While a point/counter-point format typically includes two people with opposite talking points, I’ve been warped by law school and am now able to pretend (for the right price) to believe two contradicting points at the same time. Not only does this allow me to make money being a jerk for a living, in this instance it has the added benefit of allowing me to not share the bully pulpit.

When I proposed a league among the commenters last season I was sure it would be fun but I didn’t expect half the response it received. For those of you that weren’t able to participate last year I’m excited to see the idea has spawned a new tradition.

The four of you still reading are going to learn my dirty little secret – I don’t know what I’m doing. I don’t use a slide rule or player projections to make decisions because I was too poor to go to The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston – I was stuck choosing between Topeka Fantasy Baseball A&M or a diploma mill like the University of Phoenix.  Instead, I decided to save my money for important things, like microwaveable burritos and sweet haircuts.  As such, my approach is simpler and summed up by “don’t have crappy players on your team.” This strategy has worked in the past, so the lack of actual methodology doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of competence. The trick is in properly bumbling your way to victory.

1. Use the experts to your advantage

• Let (some of) them do the work for you: most people don’t have time to come up with their own player projections and instead rely on advice from the lucky people that do. Some of you visit Razzball.com for more than the quality writing, right? Its ok to leave some of the work to the experts, just be careful who you rely on. Grey and Rudy? Good choice. Karabell and any of the hacks at Yahoo? Kiss your season goodbye.

• Use “expert” advice to your advantage:  I believe in do-it-yourself fantasy baseball. It’s a much more rewarding experience to take what the experts say and distill it. You wouldn’t drink sour mash would you? Taking the advice most of your league mates are relying on and using it against them is like turning sour mash into Jack Daniel’s: it sure is fun while it lasts and, rarely, you wake up with a fat chick – as long as your friends don’t catch you riding the scooter its all good. Use the advice that’s out there to see which players the other managers will overpay for. Since most people get their information from the same pool of advice they are going to be easy to take advantage of. Razzball calls this “zigging when they are zagging.” Just try to stay away from the fat chicks. And scooters. The Jack Daniels is your call, we don’t judge here.

2. Don’t forget why you are playing

• The point is to have fun: unless the point is to win the money your sucker friends paid to play (that’s gambling and is illegal so nobody here is doing that anyways). First and foremost, you should enjoy playing the game, otherwise it’s like work except you aren’t getting paid. I don’t know about you but the only reason I go to work is the paycheck. If having fun means drafting a team composed solely of players with mustaches, knock yourself out. Also ask Grey for advice, I bet he has some pointers for you.

• Play to win the game: To cross my sports references, Herm Edwards said it best. Having fun is well and good but it’s a lot more fun when you can make fun of people. Playing to win makes the game that much sweeter. Even if your team happens to suck and you’re the one being made fun of, keep playing competitively. There is nothing worse in a league than the managers that gave up and aren’t setting rosters.

3. Intangibles

• Play with the heart: it goes back to playing for fun but you should make a few moves based on your gut and emotions. If you think a player is posed to have a breakout year but you can’t think of a single reason why, say screw it and draft him. Don’t use this approach to draft Pedro Martinez in the first round, but a lot of your team’s performance is going to be out of your hands. The one thing you can control is how you feel about the players on the team. I picked Dan Uggla up off the waiver wire early in his rookie season for the sole reason that I lived in Miami and wanted to have a player I could root for while watching Marlins games. He became something of a mascot (coincidentally, for significant stretches the Mariner Moose will give you better stats) and the fact that my team won the championship was even better because he was there.

• To win you need to play smart: the margin between winning and losing is often exceedingly small. Fantasy baseball is a game of cold hard numbers and there simply isn’t room on a winning team for feel-good stories. Most feel-good stories don’t end up like Josh Hamilton. After that first season with Uggla I made it a point to have him on my teams which entailed reaching a round or two for him. When we drafted the RCL I fought the urge and decided to draft him where he deserved to go – and didn’t end up with him. I won the league by half a point. That wouldn’t have happened if Uggla had been on the team.

4. Making Moves

• Active managers are champs: after the draft, the only reasonable place to get talent for free is to find a gem among the schmoes on the waiver wire. Last season Carlos Quentin was largely undrafted and Alexei Ramirez was unheard of. Knowing then what you know now, don’t you wish you had picked them up? Don’t be afraid to cut players loose if a better deal is out there. Generally, at least a third of the players on my teams at the end of any season weren’t on the opening day roster. Maybe I just suck at drafting. To do this properly you need to figure out who has historically underperformed and is now playing at their real level of talent; conversely, don’t pick up the players that historically were playing at their actual level of suckitude and are now enjoying a streak of good luck.

• Being an active manager is an easy way to get hosed: Even though it is said time and again, you have to remember that baseball is a game of averages. Dealing someone (or dropping them for a waiver wire pickup) during the middle of a cold spell can be a good way to end up stuck with the worst part of their season and miss out on their production. Don’t cut ties with a guy just because he hasn’t had a decent game in a few weeks. Instead, sit him on the bench and plug in someone else until he comes around. Similarly, don’t try to score a player because you think he’ll keep up his monster numbers; boys and girls, we call that overpaying. The start of Dan Uggla’s season last year was real nice – too bad he balanced it out with June through September. Hamilton also cooled off quite a bit. Chances are at the end of the year the managers that traded for those guys early were wishing they had the players they gave away in the deal.

Following this advice will in no way guarantee you a championship. If you’re in the Original Recipe division with me I strongly recommend you disregard this entire post. Everybody should find their own approach to the game and make it work for them. Most importantly, keep coming to Razzball.com to see what you should really do – just remember to make sure the author wasn’t p0rk burn.

Admit it, you stay at the Luxor because it’s adjacent to the Mandalay Bay at a third of the price (and they have inclinators instead of elevators!).  You see a bottle of Acme Store Brand Tomato Sauce Medley and you think that’s not aftertaste, that’s a persistence of flavor!  Photoshop — bleh!  You have scissors and paste!  Cellphone?  You can yell really loud.  This, friends, is the economy of our times, so why not use some of that thriftiness towards fantasy baseball?  Sure, everyone would like to have ten first round picks and start Miguel Cabrera at their Utility spot, but it’s just not feasible.  You need some cheap alternatives.  Anyway, here’s some players that are going very early in fantasy baseball drafts and their cheap alternatives:

Adrian Gonzalez – Yes, his homers have been trending up, but he plays his home games in Petco and his average is trending down.  He also needed almost 700 plate appearances last year to accumulate 36 HRs.

Cheap Alternative:  Paul Konerko will match Gonzalez in power and be a lot closer in average than you might think.

Brian Roberts – Hey, it’s Grey’s favorite whipping boy.  In 600 ABs last year Roberts hit .296 with 9 home runs and 40 steals.

Cheap Alternative:  Kaz Matsui hit .293 with 6 home runs and 20 steals in only 375 at-bats.  If Matsui can avoid Jockular Sphincteritis, he should be fine late in a draft.

Chris Davis – What no one knew in Port Charles is Chris Davis is really Bill James’s biological son fathered out of wedlock with the au pair.  On next week’s General Hospital!

Cheap Alternative – Mark Reynolds.

Derek Jeter – Shocker, I know.  I wonder if he was butt ugly and got no poontang if he would be as overrated as he is.  Wait, let’s ask Khalil Greene.

Cheap Alternative:  Anyone.  I keed.  Mike Aviles will match Jeter’s numbers.  So if you think you need Jeter on your team, take a deep breath and grab Aviles eight rounds later.

Ichiro Suzuki – Itchy-san is projected for 7/.315/35.  Those numbers make me want Brian Roberts, at least he’s at 2nd base.  Seriously, you people are going to give me an ulcer.  Why do you want to see Grey suffer?  Why?!

Cheap Alternative: Cameron Maybin.  Sure, he may hit .260, but whatever.  Learn to cope, it’ll help you later in life.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of U.S.S. Mariner.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2009?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005’s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008’s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009’s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.