Jon Williams of Advanced Fantasy Baseball was the host this past week of Fantasy Roundtable. We like him here because his Blogger profile image has this kind of ‘Aw yeah’ quality that jives with both Grey’s and my avatars.

Anyway, here’s the question:

What is your favorite source or method of uncovering sleepers?


  1. Grey

    Grey says:

    Hey, is that Frank Thomas on the Rockies?

  2. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:

    I like Greenfield’s sabermetric research (which I think is better termed “skill set”) coupled with Rudy’s opportunity.

    I used: runs/tpa, rbi/tpa, tb/tpa, bb/tpa, sb/tpa, obp, slg for second basemen. Fontenot almost an identical match to Kinsler. I use slightly different skill sets for catchers, first basemen, etc.

    Try matching Spilborghs to Kinsler.
    (McLouth a good find last year.)

  3. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:

    Forgot BABIP.

  4. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:

    Sorry, the compare is Spilborghs to Hamilton. Not quite awake this a.m.

  5. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:

    Another telling option (in additon to first-half, second-half) is to sort player’s “hot” time frames (two to three best months) to get an idea of their absolute best potential.

  6. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:

    Thanks, Rudy for turning me on to Jon Williams. I especially like the fact that, at 98 years old, he has the requisite experience. His earliest work, at the age of 12, was comparing Ty Cobb’s and Rodgers Hornsby’s BABIP. The Sultan of Swat was his sleeper pick in 1919. The rumor mill has it that Jon is the guy who cried out to Shoeless Joe Jackson; “Say it ain’t so, Joe. Say it ain’t so.”

  7. James says:

    I don’t think it comes down to one standard method since every player’s situation is different. To have success finding sleepers you need to be knowledgeable about the circumstances and past performances that affect the player you are evaluating. Plus, don’t take information you read as fact. I always investigate anything I read about a player. If you are able to do those things the sleepers will be pretty obvious.

  8. James says:

    “To have success finding sleepers you need to be knowledgeable about the circumstances and past performances that affect the PLAYERS you are evaluating.”

  9. James says:

    A couple of notes I saw cruising the internet today:
    1. Milledge is going to lead off – first time ever!
    2. Lackey is close to calling off contract negotiations because of the Angels lack of emphasis.
    3. Motte is very close to locking up the closing job in STL.

    I am not sure how Milledge will react to this switch, and with his mediocre OPS, I am not buying. I love pitchers pitching for a purpose – ill be drafting Lackey. Motte looks like a strong late round closer.
    What do you guys think?

  10. Contrary to popular belief my first work was actually published in 1907 when I predicted that it would be 100 years before the Red Sox won another World Series.

  11. Frank Rizzo says:

    Rudy, based on your criteria for potential sleeper pitchers, what are your thoughts on Randy Johnson and Sanchez from the Giants?

    The Giants are really interesting this year. Do I think they can beat the Dodgers? No. But they may end up with the best pitching staff in the NL West.

    Pitchers to grab….


    Are these all good ones to aim for? You can get pretty good value from Cain down that list.

  12. BigFatHippo says:

    @Jon Williams: Fricken brilliant old fella!

    @James: I’m sold on Motte, all indications are he’s the guy. Franklin pitched in the 8th today and they won it in the 9th.

  13. wiudavis says:

    Who is filling the closer roll in Milwaukee? It sounds like Hoffman is a no-go. Is Villanueva going to get that call? I am short on closers and need to sweep up all the garbage I can find.

  14. JR says:

    Random sleeper news: Josh Byrnes was recently interviewed and said the Scherzer’s innings limit this season will be around 170. That’s more than I expected.

  15. Frank Rizzo says:

    @Steve: damnit steve, you’re killing me. i’d forgotten rudy’s post. i was really thinking about nolasco until i read that. damn. greinke, nolasco, and other late rounders i was considering are on that list. i’m not going near volquez now.

    glad i re-read that. got my draft tomorrow night.

  16. @Frank Rizzo: I generally like the non-Rockie NL West pitchers at the right price – for instance, I grabbed Scherzer (ARI), Wolf (LA), Baek (SD), and Cain (SF) in my NL-only league last week (my other two starters are Volquez and Maine). I think Sanchez is going to stumble coming off a huge pitch increase. Like him for 2010 bounceback. Randy is a total wildcard. I’d take him as no more than a 5th starter.

    Quick notes on others relative to their ADP. If I mention Risky, see the Risky Pitcher post – Lincecum (Neutral – b/c of Risky), Webb (Like), Haren (Like), Peavy (Like), C-Bill (Neutral b/c of Risky), Cain (Like), C-Young (Neutral – injuries + weak fastball), Kershaw (Like), Scherzer (Like).

    Re: Scherzer and Kershaw, I’ll take either of these guys in a heartbeat before David Price. Less competition + more MLB seasoning + better home park + better division + more minor league experience…

  17. Frank Rizzo says:

    @Rudy Gamble: thanks rudy. good stuff. interesting. between you and grey, both of you are pro-cain this year. i like it because you definitely don’t have to overpay. i’m totally on board with haren and believe either he or peavy is going to be my 1st pitcher off the board. in a 10 team, which i’m in, peavy is starting to drop to the 5th and haren isn’t far behind him. peavy’s making me a little nervous though. do you totally ignore the preseason with peavy?

  18. @Frank Rizzo: Haren probably is a little less of an injury risk but I’d take Peavy everything equal.

  19. AL KOHOLIC says:

    i know its spring but whats with webbs terrible pitching?anything to it

  20. big o says:

    @Rudy Gamble:
    jon’s blogger profile image “jives with both Grey’s and my avatars” ??

    are you telling me that those are not your real photos ?

    i’ll leave it for others to guess .
    all i’m saying is that neither is of the type you’d expect to find when you bought a new wallet , back in the day .

  21. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:

    Rudy, what makes you believe that Scherzer will hold up for anything close to 170 innings? Really, what are you seeing. He looks like a huge injury risk to me.

  22. @Fred Barker: I paid $11 for him in an NL-only league. I just hope for 100-150 IP of sub 4.00 ERA and strong K rates. If so, he’s worth it. Give me 150 IP of Scherzer and 50 IP of Wolf or Baek and I’ve got a top 12 NL pitcher. As for mixed leagues, Scherzer is totally worth a flier for 5th/6th starter. Honestly…once you get down to 5th/6th starters, you might as well gamble since the yawnstipating Beurhle types are always on the waiver wire throughout the season.

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