Fantasy Baseball Advice

Finally, we come to the end of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Can we start games already?)  Okay, you know that I like Rickie Weeks better than Howie Kendrick in the top twenty 2nd basemen for 2009.  You know I like Conor Jackson better than James Loney as seen at the top twenty 1st basemen for 2009.  But you don’t know how I feel about where these guys fall in the bigger picture.  Is Rickie Weeks above Conor Jackson?  Nope.  So to show you where I think players fall in relation to each other in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts, I’m putting together a 2009 fantasy baseball top 300.  This still needs to be taken with a grain of salt because of how your team might be filling out.  For instance, if you have a shortstop already and Derek Jeter is still on the board in the 12th round, you don’t draft him if you see Zimmerman and you don’t have a 3rd baseman, even though Zimmerman may be below Jeter on this list.  Because of the length of the top 300, there’s no pithy comments with each name, but you kinda do need to know what I’m thinking for each name, so I advise you go over each position in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  Also, I already went over a Top 100 for 2009 Fantasy Baseball, so I’m not going to cover them again.  This top 300 will go from 101 to 300.  Finally, see our 2009 fantasy baseball player rater for 10 team leagues or for 12 team leagues.  That goes up to 600 players.  Or a list of all players with multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300:

101. Jhonny Peralta – 2009 Projections: 85/25/90/.270/3
102. Francisco Cordero – 2009 Projections: 6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves
103. Bobby Jenks – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves
104. Adam Wainwright – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.60/1.20/150
105. Joba Chamberlain – 2009 Projections: 12-3/3.00/1.18/130 in 20 starts.
106. B.J. Ryan – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves
107. Adrian Beltre – 2009 Projections: 80/25/85/.270/10
108. Robinson Cano – 2009 Projections: 80/18/85/.310/3
109. Brian Fuentes – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves
110. Derek Jeter – 2009 Projections: 110/12/70/.305/12
111. Rafael Furcal – 2009 Projections: 95/15/65/.285/35
112. Michael Young – 2009 Projections: 100/10/85/.310/10
113. Ricky Nolasco – 2009 Projections: 11-8/4.00/1.15/160
114. A.J. Burnett – 2009 Projections: 13-9/4.15/1.30/140
115. Jose Lopez – Projections: 80/15/85/.280/5
116. Jon Lester – 2009 Projections: 15-7/4.00/1.30/150
117. Chien-Ming Wang – 2009 Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.30/120
118. Ryan Zimmerman – 2009 Projections: 80/20/90/.285/7
119. Kerry Wood – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves
120. Jorge Cantu – 2009 Projections: 80/25/90/.270/5
121. Kelly Johnson – 2009 Projections: 90/14/65/.285/10
122. Matt Cain – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.35/1.26/200
123. Yovani Gallardo – 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.50/1.25/150
124. Ryan Doumit – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.295/2
125. Chris Iannetta – 2009 Projections: 55/19/70/.265
126. Kelly Shoppach – 2009 Projections: 50/18/60/.260
127. Conor Jackson – 2009 Projections: 85/17/85/.300/10
128. Aaron Harang – 2009 Projections: 12-9/4.00/1.25/155
129. Jim Thome – 2009 Projections: 85/30/100/.250
130. James Loney – 2009 Projections: 75/17/85/.295/7
131. Erik Bedard – 2009 Projections: 9-6/3.35/1.15/140
132. Jose Valverde – 2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves
133. Mike Napoli – 2009 Projections: 55/23/65/.245/7
134. Javier Vazquez – 2009 Projections: 15-8/4.15/1.25/200
135. Pat Burrell – 2009 Projections: 70/30/85/.250
136. Milton Bradley – 2009 Projections: 60/18/75/.290/4
137. JD Drew – 2009 Projections: 80/22/75/.280/5
138. Jayson Werth – 2009 Projections: 95/17/70/.270/17
139. Coco Crisp – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.280/25
140. Carlos Gomez – 2009 Projections: 90/10/60/.260/40
141. Lastings Milledge – 2009 Projections: 75/18/90/.280/20
142. Xavier Nady – 2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275
143. Delmon Young – 2009 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/15
144. Miguel Tejada – 2009 Projections: 90/15/75/.285/7
145. Edwin Encarnacion – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.285/5
146. Mark DeRosa – 2009 Projections: 75/15/70/.280/5
147. Rickie Weeks – 2009 Projections: 90/15/60/.250/20
148. Alex Gordon – 2009 Projections: 85/22/90/.270/10
149. Carlos Marmol – 2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves
150. Cameron Maybin – 2009 Projections: 85/5/50/.280/40
151. David Price – 2009 Projections: 10-4/3.50/1.10/120
152. Max Scherzer – 2009 Projections: 9-3/3.25/1.20/100
153. Jered Weaver – 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.25/160
154. Justin Verlander – 2009 Projections: 15-9/4.00/1.30/160
155. Fred Lewis – 2009 Projections: 95/12/50/.270/25
156. Andre Ethier – 2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5
157. Zach Grienke – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.10/1.30/130
157 1/2. Ervin Santana – 2009 Projections:  11-6/3.75/1.20/125 in 20 starts
158. Matt Garza – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.50/1.25/140
159. Justin Upton – 2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7
160. Chris Young – 2009 Projections: 11-7/3.50/1.22/160
161. Kevin Kouzmanoff – 2009 Projections: 75/25/95/.270
162. Nelson Cruz – 2009 Projections: 75/25/90/.270/10
163. Travis Hafner – 2009 Projections: 60/22/85/.275
164. Bengie Molina – 2009 Projections: 50/15/70/.275
165. Ramon Hernandez – 2009 Projections: 55/17/75/.260
166. Pablo Sandoval – 2009 Projections: 60/14/65/.300
167. Chad Qualls – 2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves
168. Adam Jones – 2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12
169. Matt Wieters – 2009 Projections: 50/17/60/.290 or the Minors
170. Carlos Guillen – 2009 Projections: 80/14/80/.300/10
171. Josh Johnson – 2009 Projections: 13-6/3.75/1.32/140
172. Johnny Cueto – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.25/165
173. Nick Swisher – 2009 Projections: 70/30/80/.255
174. Brandon Morrow – 2009 Projections: 8-4/3.45/1.20/120
175. Kevin Slowey – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.17/130
176. John Danks – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160
177. Mark Reynolds – 2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7
178. Dallas McPherson – 2009 Projections: 60/20/80/.245/5
179. Mike Lowell – 2009 Projections: 75/20/85/.275
180. Chone Figgins – 2009 Projections: 95/5/55/.295/35
181. Jorge Posada – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.270
182. Brett Myers – 2009 Projections: 12-5/4.30/1.32/130
183. Ted Lilly – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.30/1.25/160
184. Ryan Dempster – 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.50/1.35/120
185. Derek Lowe – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/140
186. Shin-Soo Choo – 2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11
187. Hank Blalock – 2009 Projections: 55/17/65/.280
188. Heath Bell – 2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves
189. Howie Kendrick – 2009 Projections: 70/7/55/.310/10
190. Joey Devine – 2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves
191. Brian Wilson – 2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves
192. Matt Capps – 2009 Projections: 1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves
193. Mike Gonzalez – 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves
194. Clayton Kershaw – 2009 Projections: 11-6/4.20/1.40/140
195. Jair Jurrjens – 2009 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.35/150
196. Ubaldo Jimenez – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.20/1.40/165
197. Fausto Carmona – 2009 Projections: 14-9/4.00/1.25/120
198. Mike Jacobs – 2009 Projections: 65/28/75/.260
199. Adam LaRoche – 2009 Projections 70/26/80/.270
200. Gary Sheffield – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.255/7
201. Placido Polanco – 2009 Projections: 90/7/55/.310/7
202. Orlando Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/7/65/.280/20
203. Edgar Renteria – 2009 Projections: 80/9/70/.285/12
204. Yunel Escobar – 2009 Projections: 90/13/65/.300/3
205. Rick Ankiel – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.260
206. Denard Span – 2009 Projections: 90/8/60/.285/20
207. Juan Pierre – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
208. Willy Taveras – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
209. Mike Cameron – 2009 Projections: 70/22/75/.245/18
210. Frank Francisco – 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.32/60 and 25 Saves
211. Elijah Dukes – 2009 Projections: 75/20/70/.265/15
212. John Maine – 2009 Projections: 13-7/3.85/1.35/150
213. Mike Aviles – 2009 Projections: 80/10/55/.295/10
214. Trevor Hoffman – 2009 Projections:  2-5/4.20/1.10/40 and 30 Saves
215. Brandon Lyon – 2009 Projections:  3-2/4.15/1.40/45 and 30 Saves
216. Joel Hanrahan – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/65 and 25 Saves
217. Chris Perez - 2009 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.35/55 and 20 Saves
218. Huston Street – 2009 Projections:  5-3/3.50/1.15/55 and 20 Saves
219. George Sherrill – 2009 Projections: 2-4/4.50/1.40/50 and 15 Saves
220. Matt Lindstrom – 2009 Projections:  2-4/3.75/1.40/50 and 25 Saves
221. Troy Percival – 2009 Projections:  1-3/5.00/1.45/30 and 15 Saves
222. Manny Corpas – 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.35/55 and 10 Saves
223. Hideki Matsui – 2009 Projections: 70/18/80/.285
224. Jose Arredondo – 2009 Projections: 5-2/2.25/1.00/60, 20 Holds
225. J.J. Putz – 2009 Projections: 6-2/3.00/1.20/75, 15 Holds and 7 Saves
226. Hong-Chih Kuo – 2009 projections:  4-2/3.25/1.15/65, 15 Holds
227. Randy Winn – 2009 Projections: 80/12/60/.290/17
228. David DeJesus – 2009 Projections: 70/12/75/.290/12
229. Jason Kubel - 2009 Projections: 80/20/80/.280
230. Scott Baker - 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.22/150
231. Andy Pettitte – 2009 Projections: 15-10/4.40/1.40/160
232. Hiroki Kuroda – 2009 Projections: 13-9/3.90/1.25/120
233. Justin Duchscherer – 2009 Projections: 5-7/3.85/1.15/70
234. Wandy Rodriguez – 2009 Projections: 10-7/3.75/1.30/160
235. Jeremy Guthrie – 2009 Projections: 12-10/3.90/1.25/130
236. Jeff Francoeur – 2009 Projections: 65/18/70/.260
237. Manny Parra – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.10/1.40/160
238. Rocco Baldelli – 2009 Projections: 50/12/50/.280/3
239. Chris Snyder – 2009 Projections: 55/18/70/.245
240. Jeff Clement – 2009 Projections: 60/17/70/.250
241. Jarrod Saltamacchia – 2009 Projections: 65/16/75/.265
242. Dioner Navarro – 2009 Projections: 50/10/60/.285
243. Jesus Flores – 2009 Projections: 50/14/65/.245
244. Taylor Teagarden – 2009 Projections: 50/18/65/.265
245. Oliver Perez – 2009 Projections: 14-10/4.50/1.42/190
246. Gavin Floyd – 2009 Projections: 12-11/4.50/1.32/140
247. Jeremy Bonderman – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.40/125
248. Armando Galarraga – 2009 Projections: 9-10/4.50/1.26/110
249. Chris Carpenter – 2009 Projections: 9-5/3.70/1.27/110
250. Andy Sonnastine – 2009 Projections: 9-9/4.50/1.30/100
251. Joe Saunders – 2009 Projections: 11-7/4.15/1.26/95
252. Mike Pelfrey – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.50/1.40/100
253. Yadier Molina – 2009 Projections: 35/7/50/.270
254. Gerald Laird – 2009 Projections: 60/13/65/.270
255. Mark Buehrle – 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120
256. Chris Ray – 2009 Projections: 1-3/3.75/1.35/40 and 12 Saves
257. Hideki Okajima – 2009 Projections: 5-1/2.75/1.15/60, 24 Holds
258. Scott Downs – 2009 Projections: 4-5/2.50/1.20/60, 25 Holds
259. Scot Shields – 2009 Projections: 4-3/4.00/1.30/70, 27 Holds
260. Rafael Perez – 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.50/1.15/70, 22 Holds
261. Matt Thornton – 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.15/1.10/75, 17 Holds
262. Dan Wheeler – 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.50/1.05/50, 12 Holds and 15 Saves
263. Grant Balfour – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.15/75, 22 Holds
264. Kaz Matsui – 2009 Projections: 65/5/40/.280/20
265. Freddy Sanchez – 2009 Projections: 80/10/60/.285
266. Orlando Hudson – 2009 Projections: 75/10/45/.280/5
267. Jason Motte – 2009 Projections:  4-3/3.50/1.00/65 and 10 Saves
268. Jeremy Hermida – 2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7
269. Emmanuel Burriss – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
270. Eugenio Velez – 2009 Projections: SAGNOF
271. Ian Stewart – 2009 Projections: 65/17/80/.265/5
272. Asdrubal Cabrera – 2009 Projections: 90/12/60/.275/10
273. Ryan Theriot – 2009 Projections: 90/2/40/.295/25
274. Yuniesky Betancourt – 2009 Projections: 65/10/65/.280/10
275. Khalil Greene – 2009 Projections: 65/20/80/.235/5
276. Clint Barmes – 2009 Projections: 75/12/55/.270/12
277. Elvis Andrus – 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20
278. Jed Lowrie – 2009 Projections: 75/10/80/.260/5
279. Octavio Dotel – 2009 Projections: 2-5/3.95/1.20/90, 20 Holds
280. Cory Wade – 2009 Projections: 5-4/3.15/1.10/55, 30 Holds
281. Tony Pena – 2009 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/55, 25 Holds
282.  Troy Glaus – 2009 Projections:  40/14/50/.250
283. Gil Meche – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.00/1.33/160
284. Bronson Arroyo – 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150
285. Kenshin Kawakami – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.35/1.40/120
286. Chris Volstad – 2009 Projections: 10-7/4.00/1.30/110
287. Randy Johnson – 2009 Projections: 7-4/3.50/1.20/90
288. Dave Bush – 2009 Projections: 10-10/4.20/1.18/120
289. Paul Maholm – 2009 Projections: 10-8/4.10/1.25/150
290. Aaron Cook – 2009 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.36/90
291. Edwin Jackson – 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120
292. John Smoltz – 2009 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.16/60
293. Adam Lind – 2009 Projections: 65/24/85/.275/4
294. Ryan Spilborghs – 2009 Projections: 55/12/65/.300/12
295. Franklin Gutierrez – 2009 Projections: 70/14/75/.260/16
296. Chase Headley – 2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8
297. Chris Dickerson – 2009 Projections: 55/15/50/.250/15
298. Michael Bourn – 2009 Projections: 70/4/30/.240/40
299. Matt Joyce – 2009 Projections: 70/22/85/.250
300. Wladimir Balentien – 2009 Projections: 60/22/65/.250/5
301. Travis Snider – 2009 Projections: 50/15/60/.280

After the 2009 fantasy baseball top 300, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Together they can go 100/20/100/.285/10.  Platoon them in daily leagues.  Grey out.

In 2009, the ESPN fantasy baseball rankings were found inside Matthew Berry’s boob-shaped ice cubes and were later thawed out.  These rankings were then transcribed by an intern who had nothing for breakfast but a Bloody Mary that was heavy on the Tabasco.  Anyway, let’s look at a few choice selections in the top 30 in the ESPN fantasy baseball rankings:

15. Dustin Pedroia – Two ahead of Chase Utley in their rankings.  I already put Pedroia in the overrated fantasy baseball category.  Listen to PE’s Don’t Believe the Hype as ESPN’s fossil fuels drain the rest of the fantasy baseball world of its brain matter.

20. Ryan Howard – Last year his average was .251.  This year they project him for .251.  How convenient!  ESPN’s rankings are famous for their Monday morning quarterbacking.  If Howard hits .265 this year, does anyone want to bet me ESPN projects a .265 +/- .002 for 2010?   I love how they claim he’s a two category guy THEN (caps for emphasis and for those reading from across the room) project him for 100+ Runs.   That makes him a three category guy.  Also, you can count on three fingers how many 1st basemen give you steals and those 1st basemen don’t give you anywhere near 50 HRs and 140 RBIs.

21. Ichiro Suzuki – ESPN’s projections are 104/8/53/33/.314.  Hmm… Isn’t he guilty of the same thing they’re getting down on Howard about?  Oh, wait, they do have Ichiro one slot lower than Howard….  My bad!

29./30. Manny Ramirez/Evan Longoria – ESPN says about Manny, “Manny should continue to bring the fantasy goodness,” and they project him for 92/32/107/.319/2.  ESPN says about Longoria, “Don’t be afraid of the hype.”  They project him for 98/36/113/.272/10.  With those projections for a 3rd baseman, it makes perfect sense to rank him behind a potentially unmotivated outfielder and ten slots behind Ichiro. /sarcasm

I’m going to stop here before my ulcer flares up.  The ESPN fantasy baseball rankings are your grandfather’s fantasy baseball rankings.  They are out of touch.  They try and tell you what they think their mass audience wants to hear.  They are not telling you what you need to know.

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Nationals Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Fire Jim Bowden.

1) Which Bowden Fluffer are you the most excited about? And what do you expect from them in 2009?

Elijah Dukes. He has tremendous plate discipline for a player his age, very good on-base skills, and tremendous power. He gets a lot of negative press because of his track record, but from what we’ve seen in DC he’s been a good teammate and frankly pretty close to a model citizen. I’m more concerned about his ability to stay healthy than anything. In 2009, I think a .260 / .360 / .470 line is a totally reasonable projection, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat that by 20 points in each category. If he stays healthy and gets 500 ABs, I think we’ll see 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and an all-star game appearance.

2) Ryan Zimmerman seemed poised for a 30/100 year until last year’s limp-wristed year. What’s your prediction for him in 2009?

Zimmerman started slow, which has become a typical occurrence for him, and then had a shoulder injury that cost him two months and sapped almost all of his power for the next month after that. He finally hit his first dinger after the injury on August 27, and from that game on he ripped a .325 / .381 / .553 line. He’s not that good, but that’s a hell of a month for anyone. So I’m ready to toss out his 2008 as an aberration. That said, he isn’t a 300 / 100 guy. He’s a .280 BA, 20-25 HR guy who shouldn’t be hitting higher than 6th for a good team. And he’s one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. And he’s only 25. That’s a very valuable package, but a lot of people expect more because Bowden (as is his wont) way overhyped him when he was drafted, with comps to Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. He always does that to players, and it’s so unfair. But whatever. This year I think CHONE’s projection for 2009 is a fair projection: 19 HR, 78 RBI, .289 BA / .364 OBP / .488 SLG. I’d be surprised if he did a lot better or worse than that, assuming he’s healthy.

3) Any optimism for the Nats staff? Any chance Scott Olsen or Daniel Cabrera are inspired by Obama and give us change we can believe in?

In a word, no. I dislike Scott Olsen as a player about as much as anyone in the Natmosphere. His K rates and velocity have been in free-fall. He’s gone from 8.27 K/9 in 2006 to 6.78 in ’07 to 5.04 in ’08, and he’s lost 3 mph off his fastball over that time. He’s a slight flyball pitcher also, and his command is ok but nothing fantastic. It’s just not a very good package. Last year he only survived in the Marlins’ rotation because of an unsustainably low .266 BABIP. Plus, he’s probably the worst teammate and one of the bigger head-cases in the league.

I don’t dismiss Cabrera’s chances quite as much as Olsen’s, but I don’t see him as anything more than a marginal fifth starter, and I don’t put any stock in his vaunted “upside.” He just can’t hit the strike zone–he improved slightly on his 5.11 career BB/9 last year, but at the same time his K/9 fell to 4.75. He’s just very hittable. Guys know he can’t get strikes with the slider and sit on his mistakes. A lot of people are putting stock in the move from the AL East, but it’s not like the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are weak little sisters.

The team’s rap is that Olsen and Cabrera will be as good as Odalis Perez and Tim Redding but with upside. That’s poppycock. I actually would feel better about the team starting Jason Bergmann than either of these two, but Bowden’s hated him from the start, so that’s not going to happen. Frankly, I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see Olsen shipped off to Syracuse and Cabrera moved to the bullpen by the end of July.

4) Who gets more saves for the Nats in 2009? Hanrahanananan or Saul Rivera or wildcard?

Hanrahan will be the closer on Opening Day, and he’ll have to totally fall apart to lose the job. That could happen though. Last year was the first time in his pro career that he had any idea at all where the ball was going.

Rivera is an underappreciated gem. I know, middle relievers are pretty fungible commodities, but Rivera’s a groundball machine who never gives up the long ball and a total workhorse. I wanted him to close last year after the Rauch deal. But the team doesn’t see him as a closer because he doesn’t strike people out.

The wild card in my mind would be Garrett Mock. He should be given a shot at the rotation, but if he doesn’t get that he could be a back-end reliever. He’s been posting some very nice K-rates across every level since 2007, and last year he K-ed 10.1 per 9 in 41 MLB innings.

This team’s bullpen depth is really shaky. Who pitches the 7th inning for this team? Wil Ledezma? Jesus Colome? Steve Shell? Mike Hinckley? Nationals fans have been spoiled for years with stellar bullpens that have hidden our putrid rotations. That’s all over now. This year could be ugly.

I’d like to see Manny experiment with some less traditional bullpen usage this year. He doesn’t have any bullpen aces, so why not just play matchups? I don’t like the old Tony La Russa rigid 1-inning closer model anyway. But I’m not sure Manny has the vote of confidence from management that he’d need to push something so non-traditional.

One thing to watch is Chad Cordero. If he bounces back this year while the Nationals bullpen immolates, then you can go back to last July when Bowden humiliated Chief by announcing on sports talk radio 6 months before he had to that he’d be non-tendered without any notice to the player. Cordero said at the time that he was livid and unlikely ever to resign with the Nationals. Since then he’s been more forgiving, and he’s still out there, but I would be stunned to see him back, and I think the Nationals will miss him.

5) Your site is called Fire Jim Bowden. While Bowden certainly hasn’t distinguished himself as a GM, it is a tough economy and we hate to see someone unemployed. If no longer GM, what would you think would be a more suitable job for him?

He desperately craves the media spotlight, and although I find his personality grating I think he was a natural on Cold Pizza.

But if you’re asking about jobs in baseball, I think he would be a valuable asset as a scout. He has a decent eye for hitters, and there’s no question that he has a knack for finding useful role players in the major league trash heap. But that’s not nearly enough to build a winner, and he has no capacity whatsoever to think long-term and stick to a plan. Any fantasy baseball amateur could match his performance drafting pitchers. He doesn’t care a lick about defense. He’s literally never drafted a middle infielder who’s gotten so much as a cup of coffee in the majors ever. So I wouldn’t want him in charge of scouting and development, but if he was just a roving advance scout with a focus on finding young toolsy bats and undervalued veterans working for a guy like Jack Zduriencik or Pat Gillick he could contribute.