Fantasy Baseball Advice

Want to keep your post-draft roster from being full of you-know-what? Work Razzball’s BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) strategy into your diet so your roster doesn’t turn out irregular!

I know I could spend an extra 20 minutes brainstorming an acronym that’s more alpha-male but combining  power with our strategy’s high fiber content makes me flash back to the old SNL Colon Blow commercials.

Okay, I’m done with the crap(py) metaphors.

The BRAN strategy is for snake drafts with only one catcher (proponents of two catcher leagues are the real tools of ignorance if you ask me…).  It applies for 10 or 12 team mixed leagues.

There’s no doubt you’ll find some differences between the fantasy baseball draft strategies of blogmate Grey and myself – e.g., he says not to draft a 1st tier closer where I recommend it.  How boring of a site would we be if we agreed on everything?    Just goes to show that there are multiple strategies to success in fantasy baseball and that you have to find the one that best fits your drafting and FA pickup skills .

Anyway, here are the objectives of the BRAN strategy:
1) Get as much value as possible out of our first 9 picks which means keeping flexibility to take advantage of bargains.

2) Remain balanced enough w/ your roster to take advantage of bargains at any position in rounds 10-25 – i.e., if you stack up on OFs in the 1st 9 rounds, you have to ignore OF bargains in favor of backfilling other positions (like pitcher).

Here is the plan:
In the first 9 rounds, fill 6 set positions (1B, 2 OF, 2 SP, RP) and 3 ‘flex’ picks that can be used on the best values across any position.  See below for the position breakdown – note that OF (2/3) means draft at least 2 OFs and no more than 3 OFs.  Also, any round projections for players is based on 10-team leagues.

C (0/1) – I hate picking a catcher in the first 9 rounds because 1) the stat difference between a top 3 catcher and the last drafted catcher are the smallest of any position, 2) no one is going to take an additional catcher so I know I’ll get at least the last catcher on my draft list and 3) catchers seem more likely to get injured.  If you’re going to take one, aim to take someone going at least a round later than they should go.

1B (1/2) -As my blogmate Grey points out in his Top 20 1st Basemen post, there is a top tier of about 8-10 1Bs (depending on how you feel about Youk and Votto, though Youk will get snagged earlier for 3B).  The first 8 of these guys are going to get snagged in the first 4 rounds (Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, A-Gonz).  High-ceiling guys like Votto and Chris Davis will get picked one or more rounds early because owners w/o 1Bs will panic.  Solid vets like D-Lee and Delgado can get snagged any time as a team’s cornerman.  My advice is if there is a 1B at a good value in the first 4 rounds, grab him.  If a top-tier 1B is still hanging around in rounds 6-9, grab him for cornerman.

2B (0/1) – The same deal applies for 2B and SS so I’ll just write it once.  Middle infielders picked in the first 9 rounds almost always turn out below the expected value at that draft position.  Last year, Ian Kinsler was the only one out of 10 MIs drafted in Rounds 3-8 that provided above-average value (and, yes, that factors in position scarcity).  I called this before last season in a middling infielder post.  I’d look to use one of your 3 Flex Picks on either a 2B or SS and then grab the other and a MI in rounds 10-25.  After catcher, I’d say these are the best positions to punt.

SS (0/1) – See 2B.

3B (0/1) -This is a strange year for 3B.  A-Rod and Wright rule the category now that two of the top four no longer qualify (Cabrera, Braun).  No argument w/ them as your 1st round pick.  I don’t think there’s value to be found until Round 4 (Aramis Ramirez).  Atkins could be a steal at Round 5/6.  I’d avoid jumping at Chris Davis and Youk unless the value is there based on Marcel or CHONE projections – e.g., don’t believe Bill James’s projections on Chris Davis and assume Youkilis regresses after a career year.

OF (2/3) – Since the BRAN strategy is all about balance, I suggest breaking the draft into 5 segments and aim to get one per segment.  Think 1 OF in Rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21+.  If you can get two high-value OFs in a five round segment, go for it.  There is no reason to have more than 3 OFs in the 1st 9 rounds though.

SP (2/3) – Similar to OFs.  There are some that love to punt SPs until Round 10 or so.  Seems unnecessary to me.  I’d aim to get at least one SP in the first 5 rounds and another one before Round 9.  Realize there will be a round or two between the 3rd and the 6th where a number of SPs are picked – get ahead of that wave to get the most value.

RP (1/2) – My ideal closer pick is something like the 3rd-5th closer off the board as detailed in this closer post from last year.  Aim for a closer in Round 5-7 that can be your foundation (and help with ERA/WHIP/Ks).  If a top tier closer makes it to Rounds 7-9 and you still have Flex picks, go for it and then you can focus on stocking up on OF and SP in rounds 10-12.

DH (0/1) – In a league with just one UTIL slot, a DH really hurts roster flexibility.  Determine what fair value is for a DH and then wait an extra 2 rounds before drafting.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway).  The 2009 Giants Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of McCovey Chronicles.

1)  Is Ishikawa the Giants 1st baseman for 2009? If not, who? If so, what can we expect from him?  “Better than Ryan Klesko” isn’t an answer.

He should get a bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, as his minor league history suggests he’s pretty useless against lefties. If the season were to start today, a lot of the at-bats at first would go to Josh Phelps, but I expect that the Giants will sign a right-handed hitter who can play both first and third. That will probably be Rich Aurilia, but there’s always a chance that the Giants will get Ty Wigginton or Nomar Garciaparra.

I wouldn’t expect a whole lot from Ishikawa. If I were to give an optimistic projection, it would be .260/.340/.450, with 18 HR. The pessimest in me says .230/.290/.390, and a trip to Fresno around June.

2)  Do the extra innings that Lincecum put on his arm in 2008 worry you?  Why or why not? (If necessary, feel free to include crazy anecdotes about how Lincecum’s father taught him to throw with an anvil so Lincecum will never break down.)

They don’t worry me more than the workload of any other young pitcher. Lincecum’s velocity was consistent late in games at the end of the season, so until there’s a data point other than “pitches thrown” to get me worried, I won’t be. Plus, as he can bend space and time, I’m sure he can control chaotic processes within his own genetic code. If he tears something, he’ll just make a new one with his mind.

3)  Please convince me Burriss or Velez will win the 2nd base job.

While either would make a cheap source for fantasy steals, the best real-life option would be Kevin Frandsen. Burriss’s value to the organization would probably be at its highest if he were a starting shortstop, so he needs defensive innings in AAA. Velez is a fast bag of antlers, I’ll give him that, but he’s pretty baseball-clueless. His defense is shoddy, at best, and he’ll never hit for average or power. He’ll make a good 25th-man someday, but that’s about it.

4)  What can we expect of Fred Lewis in 2009?

More of the same, I’d think. His batting average on balls in play was unusually high, so some folks think he’s due for a fall, but there still some room for growth to counteract any sort of regression to the mean. He took an awful lot of first pitch strikes, and might benefit from being a little more aggressive. Now that he’s a “middle-of-the-order threat” instead of a leadoff hitter, he’ll probably try and jump on first pitches more often to try and hit for a little more power, but I think any power improvement will be marginal. I’ll guess .280/.350/.470, with 14 home runs. If he bats third in the Giants’ lineup, though, he’ll get a fair number of RBIs.

5)  I think Brian Wilson will lose his job at some point in 2009.  Am I talking gibberish like the other famous Brian Wilson or are you concerned too?

I’m not too worried about Wilson. His stuff is nasty enough to make up for his wonky control. Unless his velocity dips, he’ll stick around. If he can cut his walk rate, he’ll become an elite closer. You could write that about 30+ relievers, but it’s especially true for Wilson. He has a 96-MPH fastball and an 89-MPH slider; if he has even average control, he’ll be a beast.

All of these rookies are worth grabbing at the right spot, but I wouldn’t reach for any of them.  Sorry if that sounds boring, but sometimes Grey needs to instill some right-wing fantasy baseball conservatism into the equation.  Longoria, Soto, Tulowitzki, Braun, Michael J. Fox in the first year of Family Ties, etc. panned out.  But for every time you scored with rookie nookie, there was a time when you struckout, Adam Jones, Johnny Cueto, Fukudome, Towles, Hughes, Parra, Justin Upton, Brian Bonsall, etc.  If you click on the links on the players below, you’ll see I covered all of these rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball back in November/December.   (These fantasy sleeper, rookie doodes are in no particular order.  Well… Technically, I did wrote them down in an order so they are in some order…)  Anyway, here’s some rookies for 2009 fantasy baseball:

David Price – I think he hits 150 innings and makes a huge difference for the teams who own him.  I’d pursue him like a third or fourth fantasy starter.

Matt Wieters – He’s been discussed ad nauseum since I discussed him way back in November.  I won’t have him in any league.

Cameron Maybin – I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s a top 30 outfielder at the end of the year.  That’s a hunch more than anything.   What, I can’t have crushes?

Colby Rasmus – I like him in NL-Only leagues if he leaves spring training with a gig.

Travis Snider – Cheap source of 20 homer power.

Elvis Andrus – Liked him a whole lot more before Omar “I Will One Day Die At The Hands Of Jose Mesa” Vizquel joined the team.

Andrew McCutchen – Keep your eye on him in NL-Only keepers.  He might be a doughy bagel as soon as 2010.

Carlos Carrasco – I like him more than most, but he needs an injury to someone else to see some RT (that’s Rotation Time.  Acronyms don’t work as well when I have to explain them.)

Brett Gardner – I loved him back in November.  Now I’m a bit lukewarm.  If he can find legitimate PT, he swipes 30 bags.  Two things are going in his favor 1) Melky’s his main competition.  2)  See Number One.

Kenshin Kawakami - Two parts Kuroda, one part Hideki Irabu.

Jason Heyward – Keep Heyward in mind in NL-Only keeper leagues.  He’s my early frontrunner for NL ROY for 2010.

Chris Dickerson – Dusty Baker is talking of playing veterans.  Oh, Dusty.  You card!

Mat Gamel -  If he leaves camp with a full-time gig, he will be worth owning in mixed leagues.

Taylor Teagarden – I’d like him more if the Rangers didn’t have Saltymochachino in front of him.  Yet, I still like him.  I like Salty too.  To quote your Mom’s favorite movie title, “Something’s Gotta Give.”

James McDonald – If McDonald gets the fifth starter job in The Los Angeles City of Los Angeles (<–required by Anaheim law), he could be a great NL-Only sleeper.  James McDonald is a fantasy sleeper?! That’ll be a big seller in Google searches.

Back in September, I said, “There’s so much to love about Fred Lewis. Let’s see… Power — check!  Speed — check!  A name that sounds like an 80′s sitcom character — check!  I’ll take Fred Lewis in the center square for the win.  Alas, Fred Lewis is about to undergo season-ending surgery on a foot bunion.  (The operating podiatrist hopes his patented Toe, Hairy and Curly procedure will one day be as recognized as Tommy John surgery.)  I still like Lewis for next year, but this is this year, fool!” And that’s me quoting me!  Let’s see why I still like Fred Lewis as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.

Similarly to a wah-wah storyline from a bad sitcom, Fred Lewis was bothered by bunions for most of last year.  It’s impossible to know how many bases Fred Lewis would’ve stole if not for the bunions, but I’m gonna guess more than the 21 he did steal.  He also missed quite a few games with this chronic foot-to-path disease.  It’s hard to say how many home runs he would’ve hit if he didn’t miss all of those games, but, like a foot, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say more than the 9 he did hit.  Now that your expectations are soaring, I’m gonna knock them down a bit.  With extra at-bats and less luck, Lewis probably won’t hit the .282 he hit last year.   Cuz, see, his BABIP was a bit too high, even for a chop and run hitter.  Also, he’s already 28 years old, last year (with extra games) is about as much as we can expect from him.  I’d put Lewis’s 2009 fantasy projections at about 95/12/50/.270/25.  Those are a bit optimistic, but they’re not fall off from some outfielders going much higher in 2009 drafts.  Fred Lewis should be good, as long as he’s got these bunions beat — “Get your feet checked.  You big dummy!”

The other day I went over my fantasy baseball strategy for snake drafts.  Lots of the strategy there also applies here.  If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo!   You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies.  The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft.  The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft.  One guy, and there’s always one, has his phone on vibrate just in case the missus calls about little Petey.  He’s got the flu, ya know.  Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team).  You have the guy who brings only Cheetos and then asks the host for some cola every 30 minutes.  Then, finally, you have the guy who made plans at 5PM and begins to yell at everyone at 4PM that they’re taking too long.  And, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year.  Auction draft day is better than your wedding day.  As for online auction drafts, they’re not as fun.  Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction draft.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say David Ortiz snuck into a 21 and under club with Esmailyn Gonzalez’s fake ID and took your baby sister home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Ortiz and let others overspend on him.  This is not to say you should let him go for cheap.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Johan.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Alexis Rios, go the extra buck or two.  You really need a closer and Hanrahananan is the only one left?  Go the extra dollar or two.  Get the players you need.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money, especially at the end of the draft.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you may want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out Elijah Dukes for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Dukes for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At the end of the draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Chris Perez, Capps or whoever is going to go.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.  I’ll take Hanrahanananan for $1.  Sweet!

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos and cola for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.