Fantasy Baseball Advice

Note: Besides providing advice and news on fantasy baseball, we at Razzball created and now sponsor a game where the goal is to manage a team and compile the worst stats. These Historical Spotlights honor those players who would’ve excelled in such a format. See here for more info. See here for the summary of the inaugural 2008 season.

For a man and a woman to produce a great baseball player, it takes an ovum with a very good eye to spot a 5-tool sperm out of the pack. While there is more room for error if the father is a former player like Bobby Bonds or Ken Griffey Sr., it’s extremely rare that the same pitcher/catcher combination produces more than one HOF caliber player. (Note: Ms. Koufax’s eagle-eyed ova managed to find the one athletic specimen of the 180 million nebbish sperm provided by her husband. Jonas Salk purported that if he had access to Ms. Koufax’s womb, he could have cured blindness. Then again, Jonas would say anything to get into a girl’s womb…)

There are some exceptions to this rule:

1) Paul “Big Poison” and Lloyd “Little Poison” Waner amassed 5,611 hits for the pre-WWII Pirates (back when they were good).

2) The Alou triumvirate of Felipe, Matty, and Jesus amassed more than 5,000 hits. Ms. Alou was so fertile that her vagina was used for agricultural purposes during fallow reproduction periods.

3) The DiMaggio trio of Joe, Dom, and Vince may have been the best set of brothers but their combined stats seem less impressive because of time lost in service (Joe and Dom both served 3 years during WWII) and that the DiMaggio’s were 3 of about 40 DiMaggio children (as was de riguer among Italians of the era).

The more common scenario among baseball playing progeny is at most one heavyweight (say, Sly Stallone) and one lightweight (say, Frank Stallone). Could the lightweight brothers ever have been contenders (aka contendas) or did they just ride their brother’s coattails? Tough to say. But here are some examples:

1) Tommie Aaron. Brother Hank hit 755 HRs. Tommie hit 13. He got hate letters…from African-Americans.

2) Ozzie Canseco. Jose and his twin combined for 462 HRs and stole 200 SBs in the majors. Ozzie was responsible for 0 HRs and 0 SBs as he managed just 13 hits (6 doubles!) and 4 RBIs in his 65 career ABs. Thus, Ozzie had about the same impact on their brotherly combined statistics as, say, Lizzie McGwire would if you combined her stats with those of Mark McGwire.

3) Steve Larkin. Brother Barry played 19 seasons in Cincinnati and starred in 12 All-Star games. Steve played one game for the Reds in 1998 going 1 for 3. I wonder if Steve rubs it in that he has the higher career batting average

4) Chris Gwynn. Brother Tony hit 3,141 hits and won 8 batting titles. Chris managed 263 hits in 10 years. Based on the below photo, it’s no coincidence they both ended up on the team owned by the founder of McDonald’s.

That takes us to Billy Ripken. Billy shot through the minor leagues on a wave of mediocrity and nepotism – making it to the majors in 1987 at the young age of 22 (then again, you never know the true age of Oriole infielders). He soon beat out Alan Wiggins for the Oriole 2B spot as Wiggins, much like Robert Downey Jr., couldn’t choose between speed (66 and 70 SB in 1983/84) and cocaine.

Ripken’s surprising .308/.363/.372 over 234 ABs in 1987 didn’t dupe Oriole fans and brass into thinking that they had another Cal Ripken, but it did have them thinking they had their starting second baseman for 1988 and a #2 hitter to hit in front of his brother and Eddie Murray.

In retrospect, they could not have chosen a better 2nd baseman for their Razztastic 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The season started ominously with a 6 game losing streak. It wasn’t all Billy’s fault – he hit 6-for-24, a respectable .250 clip. But Cal and Eddie were riding the US highways (.091 and .130 respectively) and the axe fell on Cal Ripken Sr. The firing after 6 days shattered Yogi Berra’s unofficial ‘quickest firing’ record of 16 days by the Yanks in 1985 and it broke Cal Sr’s streak of 168 straight games managed. One wonders how Cal Sr. reacted to it given he was ‘wiry, blunt, quick-tempered and given to salty language’.

Baltimore legend and HOFer Frank Robinson came in and got the team into the W column….on April 29th in their 22nd game of the season. Yes, much like a senior undergrad at Oral Roberts University, the team went 0 for their first 21.

Hitting primarily out of the #2 slot (right in front of his brother), Billy had a tough April and May, finishing the two months with a .173 AVG in 162 ABs. Students at nearby Johns Hopkins Medical School ironically mused, “How could Billy’s stats be so anemic given his brother is known as the ‘Iron Man’?” and debated whether to nickname him Anemia Man or Irony Man.

On June 14th, Billy Ripken hit his first HR of the year off of the Tigers’ Doyle Alexander – the sole hitting highlight of a first half that, in 287 ABs, amassed a .199 AVG. Given the Orioles finished the first half at 28-59, it’s not as if he was the only dead weight in the lineup.

During the All-Star Break, Frank Robinson had some thinking to do. Do I send Ripken back down to AAA and potentially anger Cal Jr.? Can I really spoil a Razzterful season in the spirit of meritocracy and honoring the game when our season is already in the shitter? Frank compromised – he kept Ripken in the lineup every day but stashed him in the 9th slot to minimize the impact. To make sure Ripken didn’t lose momentum during the All-Star break, Frank scheduled some extra hitting sessions with former Baltimore SS Mark Belanger.

The 2nd half basically played out like the 1st half – 1 HR and a few more hits to put him over the Mendoza line.

The final line:

512 AB / 52 R / 2 HR / 34 RBI/ 8 SB / .207 AVG / .260 OBP / .258 SLG

Among AL batters with 300+ ABs, Billy Ripken finished last in AVG, OBP, and SLG. His 2 HR did place him ahead of 13 AL hitters including a power-deprived Ozzie Guillen (0 HR in 566 AB), a coke-deprived Willie Wilson (1), and a steroid-deprived Brady Anderson (1 in 325 AB).

That said, Billy felt positive going into the 1989 season. Yes, my 1988 was Razztastic but I’m a Ripken, damnit! I’m only going to get better. It really can’t get any worse than being the worst hitter in the league on the worst team in the league and my father being axed in the first 6 days of the season, could it?

Billy’s optimism, however, stood no chance against the naked ambition of Fleer Corporation which was, at the time, in a fight with Donruss for #2 in the baseball card market. In what is on record as an honest mistake, Billy Ripken’s 1989 baseball card came out with the nickname ‘Fuck Face’ on the knob of his bat. Traumatized, Billy missed the first 15 games of 1989 on the DL with a bruised ego and ended the season with only slightly better results (.239 AVG w/ no power).

During 1990, a reinvigorated Billy blocked out his 1988-1989 mistakes like Fleer blocked out the ‘Fuck Face’ in subsequent printings of the card. He had his best season as a pro when, in 406 AB, he led the Orioles in hitting at .291 – stomping his .250 hitting brother. Granted, Cal out-HRed him 21 to 3 but still…

While Billy’s glove (and surname?) kept him in the league another 8 years, a mix of injuries and responsible coaching kept him from ever topping 330 ABs again. He recently represented Ripken Baseball on a US government-sponsored envoy to China to help build support for baseball. You know Lenn Sakata HAD to be pissed that he wasn’t invited.

Let Cooperstown have Cal. Razzball will take Fuck Face any day of the week (twice on Sundays!)

How is it that the more money you make, the more money is guaranteed? You don’t see anyone tying someone up with a contract to wait tables at The Cheesecake Factory for $10/hour for six months. Even if they go four weeks without spilling a tray and have what is deemed a “career month!” There’s no Olive Garden Out Clause. There’s no guaranteed Buffalo Chicken Salad Lunch Clause. There’s no free travel. Most times there’s no free parking. There’s no free translator for bus boys. Granted, the bus boys don’t conduct too many interviews where a translator might be need, but still. So why when someone has a career year are they then given $30 million? I’ve met Byrnes’s agent. He’s not that smooth. (Sorry, Mike!) I don’t think even the most novice fantasy baseball owner fell for Byrnes’s 2007. But the D-backs sure did. /rant BTW, Byrnes hit the DL yesterday.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Jay Bruce – Not a bad… *pinkie to mouth* intro’brucing. Now if I may acronymize Bruce properly, JB looks better than JC, but not as good as JV. As long as DB continues to start him over CP, we’ll be OK.

Ian Stewart – It’s impossible to say Ian Stewart without using a Sean Connery accent. My name is Ee-yon Shtew-art. Well, Ee-yon Shtew-art started yesterday at 2nd Base. I’m pretty sure if he gets 2nd base eligibility he’s going to be better than your 2nd basemen or at least MI. Or not, but he’s definitely worth a look if he has 2nd base eligibility.

Johnny Cueto – This is the last update for JC until he pitches well again. Cueto and I are on a break. I see no reason to update everyone on his struggles. You think Kershaw’s going to be unhittable? Look at Parra, Cueto and Volquez. You got one out of three and Volquez has a WHIP and a history of wildness that says his success won’t continue. Grab Kershaw off of waivers then trade him immediately for a piece that you need.

Ian Snell – What the Snell! Snell, the Funky Homosapien wasn’t even (Snell) close on a lot of his pitches. I wouldn’t start him right now in a 32 deep NL-Only league. Snell ya later, Ian.

Sean Gallagher – Not only is he pitching better than Rich Hill (1 ER & 4H in 7 IP), but he’s a better guy in the clubhouse. Nothing loosens up a team like a mallet to a watermelon.

Tim Hudson – Rudy and I disagreed on Hudson’s worth. I say he’s a solid #2 with plus ERA, WHIP, Wins and minus Ks. Rudy calls Hudson a solid #3. Tomato-whatever, Hudson’s on a lot of my teams and he’s more valuable on my team than he is in a trade. So there.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu hit a grand slam yesterday.

Ben Francisco – I mentioned him a bunch when he first got called up saying he could go 15/15. (And that’s me paraphrasing myself!) Now Francisco is batting third because he’s the only one consistently hitting on the Indians team. If he continues to hit and the Indians get hot, he could stay in the three hole for a while. These are all hypotheticals, of course. But you just never know. Full disclosure: I dropped Griffey from one team for Francisco.

Ryan Spilborghs – Batting fifth. Another home run. I guess you don’t need that.

Josh Hamilton – You sniff blow? Hell no, I got my whole season ahead of me, no time to be sniffin’. If Kinsler finds out, then he’ll start riffin’.

Jason Giambi – Up to ten home runs and .238. Jeremy Giambi up to no good. The Super Giambi Bros. are plumbers and they have to save the princess. And here’s Cousin Oliver Giambi playing the theme song.

Shawn Hill – Thank God (for me), Hill decided to give up nine runners in three innings against the Padres. I wouldn’t be surprised to find Hill on the DL by next week, but ya know I like him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Left after 4 innings (and no BB?!?!) with an injury to his side. Looks like someone skipped his pre-game calisthenics. No word yet on the severity of the injury. If Dice-K goes to the DL, Clay Buchholz will rejoin the rotation.

Matt Diaz – Die-as to the Dee-eL. Maybe he’ll return with a newfound vigor. He sure won’t be returning to my team.

AJ Burnett – Just like his mom Carol, he loves to put on a variety show. You like K’s. You got it. You like 2 out rallies started by the #9 hitter. Can do.

Ervin Santana - A gem of a game. 9 IP. 3 base runners. 7 Ks. Somehow the Angels managed to score a whooping 3 runs for the win. While his last 3 starts were ugly on the ERA, his K’s remained (19 in 3 games). I’ll take Santana over Saunders or Garland.

Tim Lincecum – Now 7-1. On the Giants. How awkward must it be between him and Zito? Barry, don’t worry about it. I’m lucky. They give me more run support. Yeah, that’s the reason. You’re so much better than me at making hitters put the ball in play.

Braden Looper – 7 ER in 4 1/3 IP. Think of a word that rhymes with Looper and it describes his performances. Betcha it isn’t super.

Julio Lugo – Was ejected arguing balls and strikes. As anyone who has ever dated a Catholic can tell you, you can’t argue your way to first.

Nick Blackburn – Not a lot of K’s (4.5/9 IP), not a lot of BB (1.5/9 IP). If you were Minnesota dreamin’ for Brad Radke, look no further.

Mariano Rivera - 22 IP, 1 W, 12 SV, 20 Ks, 1 Earned Run, 1 Walk. We’re speechless.

NY Mets – Yeah, it’s all Willie Randolph’s fault. Here’s the 5th to 8th hitters yesterday for the Mets: 1B Damion Easley, RF Fernando Tatis, C Ramon Castro, LF Nick Evans. Too bad they couldn’t work in Brian Schneider. Great GM-work Omar Minaya. Mets fans, stop riding the Yankee 2b of our childhood. Willie’s got a great ‘stache! Oh, one more note. Minaya once traded Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. Good thing Minaya wasn’t around a couple years ago. He would’ve traded Reyes and Wright to the Orioles for Sidney Ponson and a pulled pork sandwich from Boog’s BBQ in right field, which would’ve been promptly eaten by Sidney Ponson. Case closed!

Looks like someone found time to transcribe Karabell’s refrigerator magnets into a blog post. ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, went through his early season favorites to be fantasy baseball’s Most Valuable Players and Cy Young. Now obviously they don’t give awards for this shizz, but Karabell’s playing in his sandbox, so grab a teat and follow along. (He didn’t mention real baseball where his AL MVP preseason choice was David Ortiz. Yes, he’s bonkers.) You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to understand the extent of his nitwititude so I’ll quote the relevant passages here. For Fantasy MVP, he put Hanley Ramirez behind Nate McLouth. Zoinks! I’m Karabell and I’m chewing on a crayon! Now I’ve long expressed caution about Hanley, even going as far as ranking him 5th overall, but Nate McLouth does not have a chance in Yangzou, China in placing in front of Hanley in fantasy worth at the end of the year. Karabell said this about McClouth:

McLouth isn’t running very much, but I think he will, and he’s looking like a 25-homer guy, at least. Like Florida’s Ramirez, he’s no longer leading off, he’s hitting third. This is legit.

Then he puts Berkman at number one. I won’t argue necessarily with that (I could; I just won’t), but listen to this turd nugget:

When Berkman slows down a bit, literally and figuratively, I think McLouth will pass him on this list…

Wow. I can’t imagine he’s not throwing darts at a board. Literally and figuratively. A) McClouth’s hitting third on the Pirates and in that lineup spot he has zero home runs. B) McClouth was a career .248 hitter coming into 2008. C) He isn’t running much, but he will is probably true, but to rank him number two overall on a promise of more steals is asinine. D) I’m moving on before I shove my head into a blender.

Then Karabell lists his fantasy Cy Young candidates. Edinson Volquez comes in 2nd. Now I have Volquez on a lot of teams, so I don’t want to jinx him too bad and this was covered the other day, I’ll just say Volquez is pitching a wee bit over his head right now. The real turd nugget Karabell pinched off was by drinking the Cliff Lee Kool-Aid, who he placed number one:

I think he threatens for 20 wins and keeps his season ERA around 2.50. To me, that doesn’t make him a prime sell-high.

Lee will probably be over 2.50 by June 15th. Granted, Karabell wrote that three days before Lee’s outing where he gave up six runs in five innings. So does that excuse his stupidity? No, it illustrates it. Not to mention, Lee and Volquez placed in front of Webb, who Karabell just listed as the number one overall fantasy baseball player. Not just pitcher. I’m going to now paper cut my eyelids then submerge my face into a shark tank.

Halladay is the vet who averages 10 innings a game. AJ Burnett is the high-paid free agent with filthy stuff. McGowan is the prospect that’s on the verge of greatness, but Marcum has the best ERA, WHIP and K rate. That’s right, Shaun Marcum! Wait, who? Um, he’s from Missouri. You know, Marcum! He’s prone to the home run ball and… Let’s see… He’s averaging about one baserunner every seven starts. He has a ridiculous BABIP that’s under .200… (Grey, please no numbers!) Okay, sorry, grasshopper. So what are some predictions? Marcum is a solid #3 starter that should have between a 3.50 and 4.00 ERA the rest of the way. *nodding off* I’m sorry. What? Oh, Marcum! Right! Wow, Marcum is boring, right? He’s throwing a .87 WHIP through May and I can’t get excited about him at all. Maybe it’s because he’s from Missouri. Where is Missouri? Do they have TV there? Isn’t that Cardinals country? Why am I talking about the Cardinals? Cause Marcum’s really boring. But he can be helpful. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brandon Webb – Has dropped 2 in a row since the 9 game winning streak. If you convince someone in your league that he’s going to lose 7 more in a row, go for it. He’s as good a bet as there is for a starting pitcher right now. Worthy of a straight-up trade with just about any hitter not picked in the 1st round.

Jair Jurrjens – He was removed after 4 and 2/3 innings when he was up 2 runs. Sometimes a Cox yanking doesn’t lead to a happy ending.

Melky Cabrera – After a great April, Melky has been awful in May. Figure he’ll be in-between for the rest of the year which makes him a 15/15 OF who varies from 5th OF to droppable in most leagues.

Jason Bergmann – It’s hard to believe in anyone in Washington, but we’re fast becoming believers in Bergmann. 3 straight scoreless outings with 22 Ks in 19.2 IP. He was a reliever in the minors so it’s hard to project his stats, but he pitched OK last year in his first stint with the Nationals. Ride the streak and see where it takes you.

Corey Patterson – We suggest he move in with Corey Feldman and Corey Haim. They can all star in Lost Boys 2. (BTW, after offhandedly mentioning Sidney Pollack in Sunday night’s post, I wouldn’t stand too close to the Two Coreys today.)

Chase Headley – We told you about Ian Stewart 10 ten days prior to his call-up. We told you about Jay Bruce eight days prior. Headley should be up soon too. So if you’re still holding onto him, keep holding onto him. Let’s reevaluate in a week. (BTW, I don’t think everyone needs Headley, but if you’re weak at 3rd or corner, you might.)

Cristian Guzman – I feel like he could go 100/40/.330/40 and no one would ever pick him up and, next year, no one would draft him. It would be an interesting experiment to see if Cristian Guzman hit 27 home runs in a month, how long it would take for people to think he was for real and pick him up. I’d say he’d still be at 33% owned at the end of the month. Am I saying this because I think he’s worth a pickup and no one is because of preconceived notions? Oh, heck no. I just philosophize about mock drafts and fantasy expertise; you can call me a White-Mustachioed Socrates.

Chad Tracy – No one likes a red-headed stepchild. All he’s going to do is steal ABs from Co-Jack and Mark Reynolds.

Salomon Torres – If you feel like it’s a broken record, I apologize, but he can be the closer for two months. Team decisions about who is getting paid more (Backne) might affect the outcome, but don’t think Torres can’t do the job. “This was paid for by the committee to avoid a closer by committee.”

Ryan Spilborghs – A Corky Thatcher-looking skull that looks like it can be bought at Spencer Gifts is an alien God? Karen Allen looked like she’s too old to be dating Tommy Lee Jones forget Indiana Jones. Shia LaDouce is a tough-ass greaser? Why not just put a comb in Jonathan Lipnicki’s back pocket? *realizing it’s Spilborghs, not Spielberg* Oh, um, Spilborghs has been batting fourth with Holliday out. If he’s facing a lefty, you should absolutely have him in your lineup.

Chase Utley/Ryan Howard – I’m only surprised when one of them doesn’t hit a home run.

Kosuke Fukudome – Lately, he’s been like Ichiro without the speed or Matsui without the power. Either way, he’s in a serious funkudome.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Gary Sheffield – Oblique spasms. Perhaps they were caused by the fork poking him to check if he’s done.

(NOTE: This originally ran on May 18th.) Jay Bruce could be called up from the minors relatively soon. UPDATED: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Jay Bruce will be called up before Tuesday’s game. So I figured I should give you a breakdown, but then Baron Von Vulturewins, a regular commenter in the Razzpound and an all-around good guy (actually, he could be writing in from jail, I have no idea), did a great breakdown of Jay Bruce in the comments. So without further ado — the Baron on Jay Bruce (I edited some for breadth), “Pros: Jay Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball. He’s most often compared to Larry Walker — i.e. big power potential with speed and high avg., i.e. tasty. He’s currently at .366 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBIs, 7 SB, .662 SLG in Triple-A. (And he started slow, so he’s been on an absolute tear of late.) Baseball Prospectus’ notoriously gloomy PECOTA projections put him at 29 HR this year (assuming a full season in the bigs, I’m guessing.) …All the indicators are there for Jay Bruce to succeed: bad team with several trade-bait veteran OFs, a local media clamoring to get this kid to the show — he’ll be playing in one of the NL’s premiere bandboxes, i.e. Cincy.

Cons: Two years ago, Alex Gordon was the CTPiB (consensus top etc.) and, well, we’ve seen that he hasn’t turned into “Boog Powell minus eighty pounds of custard” quite yet. (Some of us have watched this more closely, and more painfully, than others.) Cincy has a long, inglorious history of carrying one too many OFs, and driving fantasy owners insane with idiotic non-platoon OF switcheroos (see: Freel, Ryan). This is all compounded by the fact that Dusty Baker also has a history of mishandling/not trusting young players, though he seems to have put his faith in Joey Votto this year, which augurs (Word of the Day) well for Bruce.

Bottom line: Bruce could well go the way of Gordon ‘07, or he could just as easily go the way of Braun ‘07. Having missed out on the latter last year through pure Yahoo!-induced phenom fatigue (they hype everyone like they’re a young Babe Ruth, so by mid-May, you’re tuning it out) I don’t plan to miss out on it this year. So my money’s on Bruce. Given what you have to invest — i.e. nothing, save a bench spot for a few weeks.” Well said, Baron. I agree, if you have a bench spot, go for Bruce. I had Ian Stewart for a week on my bench and it didn’t cost me anything. Stewart didn’t get the call, so I dropped him. UPDATED: I did grab him again in some leagues, but I think Jay Bruce is more valuable than Stewart at this time with a better chance for playing time. If you have the spot, it makes sense to take a flier as they say in the biz (which biz that is, I’m not sure).