It’s that time of year folx — I just turned another year older, the “feels like” temp is -30 outside, and everybody in my creche (a word I learned from Baldur’s Gate 3) is sick. Our minds turn to happier thoughts, of a world where green grass proliferates and a cool breeze caresses my cheeks (use your imagination to choose which cheeks!). It is the time where EverywhereBlair emerges from hibernation to bring you his delicious and spicy takes on fantasy baseball.
Welcome to Fantasy Baseball 2024.
Now, when I left writing in the fall to pursue my passion project of canoe-based yoga, AI-generated fantasy sports takes were all the rage. Myself, I even tried to off-load my work to ChatGPT. Here’s how that went:
EverywhereBlair: Oh infallible AI large language model, can you write a preseason review of Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
ChatGPT: Bic please.
EWB: Who taught you to swear?
ChatGPT: I asked to be provided with a Bic pen to write your article.
EWB: [shoves pen into USB port]
$8000 worth of a new MacBook later, I’ve decided that I’ll just churn out this baby myself. What do I know about Japanese baseball? Probably a teensy-weensy bit [obligatory link]. But much like your favorite kaiju in the new Monarch series on Apple TV, I’m going to storm in and thrash around the fantasy baseball community to talk about the biggest off-season signing that doesn’t rhyme with Dasani: Yohinobu Yamamoto.
My Friend Yoshi
In Japanese, “yoshi” means “freaking good.” In Yamamoto’s name, the yoshi part has a different kanji — Yamamoto’s means “reason” or “cause,” which leads me to think, “How exactly did this guy who never played MLB baseball get (basically) the biggest pitching contract in history?”
Yamamoto signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for 12-years, $325 million, with $50 million additional going to NPB team Orix Blue Wave as fee for the Posting System. There are player opt-outs at years 6 and 8, but otherwise that contract is what it is. Contract mavens would probably approve of this kind of deal. The player is locked into what is the best contract in the league through their prime, with no team opt-outs.
For fantasy sports — especially you dynasty mavens — that means you’re looking at Yamamoto being in the Dodgers’ rotation until at least 2029. So, let’s work with that.
A Mountain of a Man
As any fan of Big Hero 6 will remember, “yama” means “mountain” in Japanese. But Yamamoto? He’s anything but a mountain. Here’s 5’10” and done growing, with about 180 USDA prime pounds on that skeleton. I was once that height and weight when I was 25 years old too. I biked 100 miles a week. I could do like 3 push ups. It’s a great frame for endurance. Yamamoto’s frame is more like a big hill than a mountain.
What about other comparable migrations of Japanese players who have succeeded? Yu Darvish is 6’5″. Shohei Ohtani is 6’4″. Masahiro Tanaka is 6’3″…and did he really succeed? Let’s think smaller. Kenta Maeda is 6’1″. Ah! Finally Baseball Reference has found me my body comparison for Yamamoto: Ichiro Suzuki, at 5’11” and 175 pounds.
Yamamoto is shorter than any of those guys. He lags in body weight by, in some cases, 40 pounds.
I’m not here to body shame. Everybody knows that athletes can hit the gym and make a difference year over year. But one major difference stands out (no pun intended) in Yamamoto’s spec sheet from the start: he’s built like a reliever. Here’s some guy with more Twitter followers than me saying the same thing but using a list:
Why does size matter? Because Innings Pitched matters for your fantasy team. There are some starters who are just so freaking good that they only need 130 IP to improve your season: Jacob deGrom and post-Covid Carlos Rodon come to mind. Other pitchers need IP volume. Some pitchers combine the efficient stats sheet with a ton of IP and are your saviors, like Gerrit Cole.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting (almost) paid more than Gerrit Cole in real life. Should Yamamoto also be higher on your draft list than Cole come draft day?
Yamamoto 2024 Predictions
We’ve established we have a size concern for Yamamoto — he seems less likely to produce IP than your random other SP. But maybe he can contribute Jacob deGrom-like stats in a smaller IP volume? Let’s find out!
Yamamoto has a stellar W-L record that would make any old school stat head swoon: 75-30 across his Japanese professional starts, which would place him third overall in W-L record in MLB, right ahead of Charlie Morton. Ah, your first round draft pick Charlie Morton, right?
Most of Yamamoto’s dominance has come in the post-Covid era. And was it really that dominant? His K/9 remained steady at 9.5ish over the nearly 500+ IP thrown in that period. In terms of MLB qualified comparisons, that would put Yamamoto near Nestor Cortes and Lance Lynn — two starters who are firmly off your draft radar.
But EWB! I hear you shouting. His BB/9 is stellar! Great. BB/9 isn’t a great predictor of fantasy success. Blake Snell‘s BB/9 was 4.5 combined from 2021-2023 and he won the Cy Young and was SP3 on the 2023 Player Rater. Spencer Strider‘s BB/9 in his MLB career barely drops below 3 and he’s been a gargoyle-like protector of the top of the Player Rater for two years straight.
Probably the closest high-Win, middling-K/9, low BB/9 pitching comp I see is Julio Urias. That’s OK (from a stat perspective, not a life choices perspective).
Some of these stats from the NPB are simply unlikely to repeat in the MLB. In 2023, Yamamoto started 23 games and had a decision in 22 of them — 16 of them for Wins. Same thing goes historically — 15 wins in 26 starts in 2022, and 18 wins in 26 starts in 2021.
So yeah, Julio Urias-levels of Win luck are at play. Maybe the Dodgers really are the best landing spot for Yamamoto. But no fantasy manager can expect a nearly 75% win conversion rate — that’s just not sustainable in MLB, especially in this age of starters averaging less than 5IP per start.
In 22 drafts conducted over at the NFBC since the new year, Yamamoto is averaging an ADP of 48, with a high pick of 36 and a low pick of 66. So, he’s already building consensus among early high-money drafters, and they’re placing him in the 4th-5th round.
Yamamoto is essentially SP 10 by ADP at the time of writing. And Tarik Skubal is SP11, but let’s cover that later, aight?
I think it’s too risky to put Yoshinobu Yamamoto as your SP10 — effectively your team SP1 (or SP2 if you’re a pocket aces drafter) in a money league. Yamamoto’s skill set has pedestrian comps throughout the majors, and we’re probably looking at some time for adjustment. Yamamoto is just 25 years old. Remember everybody going wild for Sawyer Gipson-Long at the end of last year as he made his cup of coffee debut? SGL is 25 years old. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez? Turns 24 this year. Graduated top prospect and now top 10 ADP starter George Kirby? 26 years old when games start. We can argue both ways about age, but many 25-year olds are just starting to dig their cleats into the mound. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yamamoto also struggle a fair amount in his debut season.
I’d say the median line for Yamamoto in 2024 is something like 12-7, 3.00 ERA, 9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, with a +/-10% variance on each number. That’s a fine SP2-3 for your money team, although I think drafting Yamamoto as SP2 would require advancing your next SP interest up the draft board a fair amount. I think the lower bound (10% chance) is 7-7, 4+ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. Upper-bound (10% chance) is 15-7, sub-3.00 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2 BB/9.
For dynasty managers, Yamamoto is the clear #1 expansion draft pick for 2024. However, don’t treat him like he’s the second coming of Gerrit Cole. If another manager wants that pick or wants a trade, I’d make them pay premium — ask for a big haul in return, but make the trade. I think Yamamoto might take 2-3 years to really track in MLB, and you can re-acquire Yamamoto for a cheaper price once the shine was worn a bit. Even Shohei Ohtani took about 2 years to click in MLB as he worked through adjustments and injuries.
What are your thoughts on Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Drop them in the comments below. In 2024, I’m starting the pre-season with some pitcher profiles. We’ll announce some news as we get closer to the reveal date.
