Oh!  Yeah!  Of course!  Willy Adames!  That old chestnut from Battlestar Galactica with his pock-marked face and–FRACK!  Captain Adames, they’re all Cylons!   *cough*  Nerd!  *cough*  Looking through middle infidel sleepers, I almost made this post about Ronny Rodriguez.  Wait…WHO?  Ronny Rodriguez, y’all!  I mean, no dur, right?  Then, I almost made this post about Niko Goodrum.  Fun fact!  If you spray that guy with pineapple juice, you have Niko Gooddaiquiris.  Handsomely turns to the mirror, “You and I both deserve the very best, that’s why I put boba in my daiquiris.”  *casts fishing pole out*  Okay, let’s reel this one back in.  I realized quickly I was only saying Niko Goodrum was a sleeper, because I wanted to be able to draft him while swirling an imaginary sifter glass.  Okay, hashtag be best, so I went back to the well, and I found Willy Adames and Baby Jessica.  Hearing in my head, leave the baby, take the Willy, I found myself here with Adames.  Then, as I dug through this tub of butter and magic, I started to wonder how Willy Adames wasn’t more obvious, then I realized if he wasn’t obvious to me, he may not be to other people.  Frank Voila!  Anyway, what can we expect from Willy Adames for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year in 288 ABs in the majors, Willy Adames went 10/6/.278.  You know how much I hate Mr. Prorater, but he insists that I tell you, “If Willy Adames had a full season, he would’ve went 20/12/.280 with 560 ABs.  Also, if you were to send one letter a day to the Pope asking him how much he wants for the Pope-mobile, your annoying letters to the Pope, when stacked, would reach the moon after 27 years.”  So, some good information from Mr. Prorater and some unrelated information.  Adames is only 23 years old, and will be the Rays’ everyday shortstop because he’s a righty who hits righties and can play defense, so he should be able to get to 560 ABs, but about the rest of those numbers?

Willy Adames had a .378 BABIP (bit high) and .278 average, so that’s high too.  Couple that with his 29.4% strikeout rate and he’s lucky he didn’t hit .230.  Thankfully, in the minors, he struck out a lot less, and he’s not slow, so the BABIP could be around .320.  He swung at only 27% of pitches outside the zone, which would be top third in the league.  That’s good. However, he swung at around 70% of pitches thrown inside the strike zone and only connected 81% of the time.  That would be bottom five percent in the league.  All of this is to say, I don’t think we’re gonna see a .270+ average without a lot of luck.  His strikeouts were less in the minors, he’s young and getting better, so he could take a step forward, but, yeah, not that big a step on average.  Next up, his power.  Adames had a 17% HR/FB, which is high, but he did rope the ball (average homer 406 feet).  He needed that high HR/FB% because he didn’t hit many fly balls.  Thankfully, he’s always hit more fly balls than that previously.  If he can get to 38% fly balls and a 12% HR/FB%, which seems right in his wheelhouse, that’s 17-20 homers easy, and possibly 24 homers.  For a random comp, 38% fly ball rate and 12% HR/FB was Asdrubal last year, who hit 23 homers.  Finally, the steals.  He runs into a lot of outs.  He stole six bags last year against 11 attempts.  As a stereotypical Italian would say, that’s-a notta-so-good.  He’s young, though, and Kevin Cash was raised on caffeine and nicotine and likes to run, so 12 steals feels way within the range of possibilities.  So, you’re looking at a 20/12/.260.  Hmm, Mr. Prorater wasn’t too far off.  But there’s upside in every one of his numbers.  23-25 homers?  Yup, maybe.  12-15 steals?  Sure, why not!  Or Y not, if a 14-year-old is reading.  .275?  Okay, maybe, prolly not!  This is a guy I think you have to take a flyer on for a late MI.  Yes, this is like the 6th Rays sleeper post and I wanted to write one about Joey Wendle too.  Must be something in the air in Tampa.  Maybe it’s the natural scent in the air from the 27 local area Hooters restaurants.  For 2019, I’ll give Willy Adames the projections of 61/20/74/.254/12 in 549 ABs with a chance for more.

  1. Matt says:

    Hey grey, question for you 12 team dynasty. We do 40 players of those 35 can be kept, and 10 of the 40 must be prospects. 7×7 format: r, hr, rbi, sb, avg, obp, xbh and w, ks, sv, era, whip, qs, h/9.

    My team is listed below if you could give an opinion on it, as well as who you would move for a more viable 1b or if you have a break out guy you can give me some advise to look and get on the low. (I just traded Correa and freeman for Stanton story and McCullers) thanks!

    C. Jt Realmuto
    1b. Justin smoak
    2b. Jonathan Schoop
    3b. Nolan Arenado
    Ss. Trevor story
    Of. Christian Yelich
    Of. Khris Davis
    Of. Giancarlo Stanton
    Util. Tommy Pham
    Util. Jake Lamb
    Be. Yoenis Cespedes
    Be. Carlos Gonzalez
    Na. Kyle Tucker
    Na. Heliot Ramos
    Na. Estevan Florial
    Na. Lazaro Armenteros
    Na. Nolan Jones
    Na. Leody Tavares
    Na. Daulton Varsho
    Na. Brent Rooker
    Na Jazz Chisholm

    Sp. Blake Snell
    Sp. Trevor Bauer
    Sp. Walker Buehler
    Sp. Robbie Ray
    Sp Lance McCullers
    Sp. Kenta Maeda
    Sp. Alex Cobb
    Sp. Felix Pena
    Sp Jon Gant
    Sp. Trevor Cahill
    Rp. Blake Treinan
    Rp. Corbin Burnes
    Rp. Adam Ottavino
    Na. Logan Allen

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      Can you move Realmuto for anyone? Can you move Pham for anyone? Can you move CarGo for anyone? Team does look decent overall, I’d be happy with who you have, except 1B obviously

  2. The Great Knoche says:

    Adames. Woof.

    He’ll be lucky to hit .230, but I’m gonna give him a projection of .254.
    His power was inflated 2nd half of last year once he got to majors. 14 Total HRs in 520+ ABs.
    Add that to his 12 SBs he seems to get like clockwork and ShaaBAM!



    Loved every other sleeper post so far though, How were the holidays?

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      They were good, we played Pictionary and my 91 year old grandfather kept drawing “breastfeeding”…

      • Sweatpants Nation says:

        @Grey: Haha. Could have been worse… I suppose…

        • Grey

          Grey says:

          Haha, yup

  3. knucks says:

    I know you’ll get to it, but I’m sorry to see that some of the shine in your Tyler Austin/Jake Cave thoughts were just ruined a bit.

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      Yeah, bummer with Cruz… oh well… maybe he’ll get injured in the spring… what a lame move by the Twins…

      • The Great Knoche says:

        @Grey: Trade bait.

        • Grey

          Grey says:

          Yeah, I guess

  4. Nightpandas says:

    If I have no pitching keepers is Kluber and Hicks a fair return for Springer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      I’d take Springer, but you are paying

  5. Dave D says:

    This Bill Adams guy sounds great… sounds like the vacation is going well, daiquiris and all….

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      Wasn’t bad, headed back right now

  6. Francisco says:

    This is a 16 team head to Head points keeper league (keeps 9+4 farm team)
    Please rank the following outfielders:
    Teoscar H
    D Fowler
    F Reyes
    C Frazier


    • Grey

      Grey says:

      My rankings will be out next month

  7. Trust The Process says:

    Grey.. 12 team roto.. burned my team down last year to load my minors and also get the first picks in the rookie , supplemental, and regular draft.. all missions accomplished .. can keep up to 10 but 6 min … would like to do that to pluck 4 good players from the top teams in supp…

    Nimmo all for sure

    Need 2 more of Franmil, Bell, Urias, Meadows, Dansby, Franchy, Teoscar , Margot, Tyler White

    Thank you as always

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      Meadows and coin flip…Prolly White, bc why not… Bell is safer, fwiw

  8. Down Goes Frazier says:

    If Clint Frazier were still a prospect, where in the top 100 would you rank him? Do you still like his future and what do you see his upside?

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      He needs a full time job, which he’s nowhere near getting yet…

  9. southside dom says:

    Hey G. Hope you’ve had a nice holiday season.

    10 team dynasty roto, 6×6 with OBP/QS. Can keep up to 17. We start 1 at each position, 3 in the OF, a util, plus 7 pitchers.

    I’ve broken down my team into definite keepers, possible keepers, and then fringe guys. Was hoping to get your advice on the 7 remaining slots.

    1. Trea Turner
    2. Goldschmidt
    3. Rendon
    4. Springer
    5. Rosario
    6. Khris Davis
    7. Carrasco
    8. Paxton
    9. Greinke
    10. Moncada

    1. Mallex Smith
    2. Ian Desmond
    3. Dozier
    4. Moustakas
    5. Buxton
    6. Gregory Polanco
    7. Kopech
    8. Darvish
    9. Eduardo Rodriguez
    10. Wheeler
    11. Leclerc
    12. McCullers

    1. Pivetta
    2. Gausman
    3. Glasnow
    4. Heaney
    5. Palka

    Thanks for your help. We have deep benches and can throw injured guys on the DL on opening day, which makes it easier to hold someone like Kopech, or even Polanco.

    Appreciate your wisdom. Won the league 2 years ago and finished runner-up this past season, so I am still in win-now mode.

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      Thanks, you too! So 17 keepers? 1st ten and Mallex, Polanco, Glasnow, Wheeler, LeClerc, Moose and a bunch of wild cards… Maybe Buxton, maybe Moose, depends where him and Dozier sign…

  10. DonnieB says:

    Who do you like the best of these for your 5th outfielder:

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      My rankings will be out in a few weeks… I think Grichuk

  11. Bterry says:

    12 team h2h traditional 5×5, keep 4 forever

    I am keeping Trout Arenado and Harper and have Kluber, Mondesi, Rendon as options for a 4th keeper. My question is, should I toss all 3 of those guys back and pick one of the guys I think will be thrown back in draft (two of rizzo, kershaw, buheler, Freeman should be avail) or just keep one of those 3? And if it’s keep one of those three, which one?

    • Grey

      Grey says:

      I’d go Freeman, so toss back

      • Bterry says:

        @Grey: I think you’re right. And at worst.. kershaw and walker aren’t much more risk than kluber. Mondesi will probably be around in this league till the 7th. They aren’t typically believers in August/sept hot youngins like I am. One guy is choosing between Freeman and Rizzo as his 4th keeper, so I’ll hope whichever he picks is around when I pick in the 4th keeper round.

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