As mock drafts and real drafts begin, we can start to see the results of where players are being drafted. At this early stage, patterns start to form and ADP will fluctuate for certain players based on type of league, for example: Eloy Jimenez may have a higher ADP in a dynasty league than a redraft league… you get the idea.

Yasiel Puig current ADP 102 – The Wild Horse is a popular breakout candidate it feels like every year. I believe this is the year he breaks into the top-20 OF. For starters, he will get more opportunities to flourish in Cincinnati. In 401 ABs last season, he hit 23 bombs playing in a pitcher-friendly home park. Puig was also moved around the lineup frequently and was never able to get comfortable in a spot in the lineup. Then you have the Dave Roberts factor of hating him, so he missed his chances to play every day. And finally, the most important thing is that he is moving to a hitters park with his BFF and hitting coach. For Puig, this year I can see .265/80/32/85/15 in 530 ABs.

Matt Olson current ADP 124 – Another .230 hitting first baseman who can hit 30 bombs? I feel like these guys are everywhere. I think this is the year Matt Olson really breaks through and touches close to 40 bombs. Olson in the second walked 30 times in 263 ABs, compared to 40 BB in 397 Abs in the first half. His power numbers went down, but his average went up and he proved he can hit the ball to the opposite field. His value will be peaked in OBP leagues and he will finish among the 7 best first basemen for fantasy in 2019. Olson for 2019 .257/83/37/90/2 in 553 Abs.

Rafael Devers current ADP 148 – Devers came up with high expectations and did not live up to them.  He was supposed the answer at third base for the Red Sox for the foreseeable future, but when he struggled at the plate he lost some playing time. I for one have not given up on Devers. Devers BABIP is below league average so if a few more balls bounce his way the average and OBP go up. This is the Devers coming out party. This is the year he slides into the 5 hole for Boston and offers security for Betts and Martinez. For 2019, I think Devers is the guy we thought he would be .270/73/29/77/1 in 529 ABs.

German Marquez current ADP 159 – Am I about to write how a Rockies pitcher might not only be worth owning, but might be a better pitcher than advertised? Yes I am. Marquez pitches better at Coors Field, he gives up over full run less at home. In 93 innings in the second half he had a 2.81 ERA to go with 1.00 WHIP and he struck had a K/9 of 12. So basically, Marquez will more than likely get overlooked in most leagues because they will see his body of work and be disappointed, but when you see how he finished 2018 I think he Marquez has a great 2019. 12-8/235/58/3.47/1.18 in 201 innings is very doable for Marquez.

Ramon Laureano current ADP 256 – Laureano makes the list mostly out of opportunity. He is going to bat leadoff and start the season as the everyday CF for the Athletics. He is an intriguing guy, in 2 months last season hit .288 and stole 7 bases in 8 attempts. There is some strikeout risk here, but I still see a guy who is going to get every opportunity to succeed. I am drinking the Kool-Aid on this guy. Steals are can be hard to come guy and Laureano could very well snag 20 bases. If he can drop his K rate and get his OBP even closer to .400 I think he could finish near the top 40 OF for 2019. This year Laureano will go .268/81/15/61/23, if the OBP is over .400 he could push for 30 steals.

 

 

  1. chet says:
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    for a cats H2h league, would you rather 1yr of bogaerts and 5 yrs of puig for 5 of MONDESI?

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @chet: I’d take the chance Grey is right on Mondesi

  2. Baer

    Robert Baer says:
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    I would take Puig and Bogaerts.

  3. True and Correct says:
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    Big problem with your “under the greydar” is your adp’s.
    Puig’s adp is 69 (33 spots before your 102).
    Marquez’ adp is 80 (1/2 of your 159)
    Laureano’s adp is 160 (100 spots before your 256).

    Undercuts the bulk of your article.

    • Baer

      Robert Baer says:
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      @True and Correct: when I had written this that’s where they were at on espn and yahoo as an average. Obviously things are changing as we get closer to opening day.

      • True and Correct says:
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        @Robert Baer: Only adp to use is NFBC.

        With that in mind, do you still believe that Puig, Marquez, and Laureano are still under the greydar ?

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