Ya know when people really love the starters I love? About a year after I love them. I’m happy for Kenta Maeda, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Plesac and Sonny Gray. Really, I am. And I might own some of them this year. Happy to pay the price. Know when I told you to draft them when their price was still dirt cheap? Last year around this time. I drafted Yu Darvish, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Woodruff and Lamet on a bunch of teams last year for half of their price or less, and, when I did, people were like, “Wow, you have a handsome face, but obviously you’re dumb as balls.” Who’s having the last laugh now? Me, a soft chuckle that builds into a loud, wildly obnoxious cackle. I don’t just happen to state my bona fides in this post for s’s and g’s. I think I need to lay out my case for why I’m not crazy to want to draft Tyler Mahle. Prior to this year, T. Mahle was best known for “Tuesday’s special that give you indigestion.” So, what can we expect from Tyler Mahle for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Tyler Mahle sleeper, just wanted to announce all my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now. So II, the Tyler Mahle sleeper:
Going on assumption that many people don’t know Tyler Mahle as well as they should, so let’s do this:
Tyler Mahle, Overpowering 97mph Fastball. ?
11th K. pic.twitter.com/L3zboZFoUd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2020
And this:
Tyler Mahle, Wicked 89mph Splitter. ?? pic.twitter.com/jF7oikXOd2
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2020
And finally:
Last weeks #3 pitch with most movement by TYLER MAHLE, 3.20 inches of total movement! ??? pic.twitter.com/NVMglDaYfa
— PitchingPralines (@PitchingPraline) September 24, 2020
Last year, Tyler Mahle’s stats we can concern ourselves with: 11.3 K/9, 4 BB/9, 4.59 xFIP, average 94 MPH on fastball (can hit 97, obviously as pictured in movement above), and lots of movement on his pitches. The walks jump off the page as a reason why my Kevin Gausman sleeper was a slam dunk, and this sleeper is more like a buzzer-beating three-pointer (Grey knows basketball — news at 11!). To better familiarize myself with Mahle, I consulted with Doug Dennis of Baseball HQ. He’s had George Foster sideburns since 1976, and slides head first into his Trans-Am screaming, “Move it, Ray Fosse!” So, we’re talking a big, big Reds fan. I gave Doug a multiple choice question, “Is Tyler Mahle on the brink of becoming an ace: True or false?” Maybe that’s not a multiple choice, but more of a true or false. Any hoo! Doug said no, he’s not on the brink of being an ace, and deflated my enthusiasm like when I found out Meredith Baxter Birney was no longer interested in men, and 40 years older than me. Life’s not fair! On the plus side, I can soldier on with the best of them.
Doug’s major issue with Tyler Mahle was his inability to go through a lineup for a third time. I did a google, and Doug’s right. It gets ugly fast in the later innings. Dot dot dot. In 2019. 1st to 3rd time through in 2019: 3.59 ERA, 3.58 ERA, 12.88 ERA. Eek, indeed. This past year, he didn’t have many opportunities to see a lineup three times, but, in 9 1/3 IP, his ERA was 1.93 the third time through. He only saw 17 2/3 IP one time (3.57 ERA) and 17 1/3 IP two times (3.63). So, yeah, I don’t know if his third time through troubles are fixed. The small sample makes declaration of ‘Mahle is headed for aces’ impossible. He did abandon a curve this year, which was a negative pitch, and focused his attention where it belongs, on his fastball, splitter and slider. His curve was especially problematic for home runs, which he cut down.
His biggest issue takes us back to about 600 words ago. He needs to command his fastball. His Zone% on the fastball went from 58.6% to 52.3%, and his command overall went 2.4 BB/9 to 4. He’s still only 26 years old, and previously graded out as a prospect on command at a 60. This past year seems like his four-seamer was moving a lot more on him. Maybe he was just learning how to get it jumping out of the grip. His velocity did go up. Again, this isn’t a slam dunk, but for his price (roughly 175 ADP), I love the flyer for a guy who could be a 11 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.30 xFIP ace. For 2021, I’ll give Tyler Mahle projections of 9-11/3.89/1.27/174 in 151 IP with a chance for more.
