No Doubt

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Justin Verlander HOU @CIN @NYY
Clayton Kershaw LAD SF COL
Jose Berrios MIN BOS @KC
Jacob deGrom NYM @ATL @CHC

In the last 15 months, Justin Verlander has married Kate Upton, had a baby girl, and is leading the player rater among pitchers. It’s been a good stretch for Verly. While he likely doesn’t maintain the current sub 2.50 ERA and sub 0.75 WHIP with a .171 BABIP and 92.1% LOB rate, I doubt anyone will complain about a high 2s to low 3s ERA with a 30% K rate for one of the best teams in the league. I don’t really know what else to tell you about this group, so, here’s a Kate Upton gif.

 

Pretty…Pretty Good

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Luis Castillo CIN HOU @MIL
Mike Soroka ATL NYM @WSH
Brandon Woodruff MIL @SD CIN
Jack Flaherty STL MIA LAA
Patrick Corbin WSH PHI ATL

Luis Castillo and Mike Soroka should really be in their own tier and I considered putting them in the No Doubt tier, but Castillo wtih 2 bad match-ups and Soroka going to Washington keeps them down one tier. After getting touched up by the Pirates, Brandon Woodruff has back to back quality starts with a combined 16 Ks. Woodruff’s velocity is up each month of the season and it’s good to see he’s not tiring yet as we get ready for summer ball. Flaherty and Corbin get one more shot before being demoted to a lower tier, but I have to believe the talent will win out.

 

Start Em If You Got Em

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Kenta Maeda LAD SF COL
Yonny Chirinos TB @NYY @OAK
Cole Hamels CHC CWS NYM
Mike Clevinger CLE @TEX DET
Lance Lynn TEX CLE CWS
Masahiro Tanaka NYY TB HOU

Mike Clevinger may welcome a return to the mound with the off the field issues around him. He gets 2 plus match-ups in his return from the IL. It’s always a little risky starting a pitcher coming back from injury, but rehab news was positive with 5.1 IP of shutout ball in his last outing hitting mid 90s with the fastball. A good showing this week will continue Clevinger’s rise to become a legitimate ace.

 

Serviceable

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Zach Plesac CLE @TEX DET
Zack Wheeler NYM @ATL @CHC
Zach Eflin PHI @WSH MIA
Miles Mikolas STL MIA LAA
Mike Fiers OAK BAL TB
Merrill Kelly ARZ COL SF
Michael Pineda MIN BOS @KC

Zach Plesac got touched up for the first time, but I’m still bullish on the young righty. Plesac mixes a mid 90s fastball with a nice change up. The slider and curve are decent pitches, but still works in progress. However, he has a calm demeanor on the mound and consistently gets ahead of batters with a 61.3% first strike rate, which would be top 40 if he qualified.

 

Do You Feel Lucky Punk? 

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Marcus Stroman TOR LAA @BOS
Wade Miley HOU @CIN @NYY
Danny Duffy KC @SEA MIN
Tyler Skaggs LAA @TOR @STL
Rick Porcello BOS @MIN TOR

We’ve been waiting for Tyler Skaggs to put it together, and it feels like we’ll always be waiting. This season is a microcosm of his whole career with glimpses of greatness followed by the fantasy baseball equivalent of being kicked in the nuts. St. Louis and Toronto are both bottom 6 offenses so far in June and bottom third against lefties for the season. I’m feeling lucky and willing to give him a chance.

 

Brown Paper Bag

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Felix Pena LAA @TOR @STL
Jake Arrieta PHI @WSH MIA
Adrian Sampson TEX CLE CWS
Anthony DeSclafani CIN HOU @MIL
Ryan Yarbrough TB @NYY @OAK
Mitch Keller PIT DET SD
Yusei Kikuchi SEA KC BAL

Mitch Keller is seemingly a polarizing prospect despite having strong rankings across the board. Nobody will be surprised if he doesn’t get both starts as the Pirates continue to play with his service time and try to keep him rookie eligible through 2029. His first 2 looks at the majors this season have no been strong, but I do believe he will be a solid pitcher for years to come. He just may take more of the Jose Berrios learning curve than the Walker Buehler dominance out of the gate.

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Yusei Kikuchi. He got it together and put an acceptable outing together against the Twins and gets two bottom 7 offenses.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Homer Bailey KC @SEA MIN
Brett Anderson OAK BAL TB
Jhoulys Chacin MIL @SD CIN
Daniel Norris DET @PIT @CLE
Andrew Cashner BAL @OAK @SEA
Gabriel Ynoa BAL @OAK @SEA

The case could be made for Bretty Anderson to move up one grouping as he’s performed admirably this year, but a lack of Ks (12.6%) only has minimal fantasy impact outside of deeper leagues. He does have 5 straight starts without giving up more than 3 earned runs at least if you’re digging deep.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Player Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Shaun Anderson SF @LAD @ARZ
Erick Fedde WSH PHI ATL
Tyler Beede SF @LAD @ARZ
Elieser Hernandez MIA @STL @PHI
Antonio Senzatela COL @ARZ @LAD
Jordan Yamamoto MIA @STL @PHI
Edwin Jackson TOR LAA LAA

 

Notes

  • The Padres continue to employ a 6 man rotation and/or bullpen days, but Joey Lucchesi would be Serviceable for me if he does get 2 starts.
  • Pirates are scheduled for a 4 man rotation this week, so, I ranked Mitch Keller, but there’s a chance he only gets 1 even he if performs well.
  • Tigers may also use a 4 man rotation for the week, which would give Daniel Norris 2 starts to fit in as an Eyes Wide Shut starter.
  • Last, the Red Sox may use a 4 man rotation this week and put David Price up in the Start Em If You Got Em group.

 

Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days

AL EAST
BAL Monday, Tuesday
BOS Monday
NYY Monday, Tuesday
TB Monday, Tuesday
TOR Monday, Tuesday

 

AL CENTRAL
CWS X
CLE Monday, Tuesday
DET X
KC Monday, Tuesday
MIN Monday, Tuesday

 

AL WEST
HOU Monday, Tuesday
LAA Monday, Tuesday
OAK Monday, Tuesday
SEA Monday, Tuesday
TEX Monday, Tuesday

 

NL EAST
ATL Monday
MIA Monday, Tuesday
NYM Monday, Tuesday
PHI Monday, Tuesday
WSH Monday, Tuesday

 

NL CENTRAL
CHC Tuesday
CIN Monday, Tuesday
MIL Monday, Tuesday
PIT X
STL Monday, Tuesday

 

NL WEST
ARZ Tuesday
COL Tuesday
LAD Monday, Tuesday
SD Monday
SF Monday, Tuesday
  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    The JV x Kate connection is real! Where would JA Happ fall in the tiers? Think he gets CIN and HOU.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Happ would be Serviceable with those 2 starts.

  2. Pousse-Poussev says:
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    Why don’t you got Joey Lucchesi down for two starts? You need me to break your knee cap for yous?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thoughts and prayers to B_Don

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        loll

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      I mentioned Joey down in the notes. The Padres have been employing a 6 man rotation most of the season. They fooled me 85 times in a row with Paddack, so, until further notice, the Padres need a 7 game week to get a 2 start pitcher.

      • Pousse-Pousse says:
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        Hey, this wiseguy’s alright, hear me. Hes alright. Tanks for the tip.

  3. prestige says:
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    Any interesting thoughts on this matchup for tomorrow?? Liking Kelly

    M Kelly home vs Rockies (Sensatela)

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Interesting thoughts… hmm… In June Kelly is throwing the curve more, up about 10% from the start of the season. Whiff rate on the curve also doubled from sub 10% to over 20% in June. Batting avg and slugging against the pitch is down to .091. He’s also increased the usage of the cutter to over 25%. Whiff rate on the cutter is up to 12.35% with a .111 avg against and a .222 slugging against.

      At home he has a 2.35 ERA compared to 4.95 on the road with a 0.81 ERA in his 3 starts in June with the adjusted pitch mix mentioned above. On the road, the Rockies are 23rd in runs scored and 29th in HRs.

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