No Doubt
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | Chris Sale | TEX | @BAL |
| LAD | Hyun-Jin Ryu | @LAA | CHC |
| TB | Charlie Morton | OAK | LAA |
| NYY | James Paxton | NYM | @CWS |
If you ask Trevor Bauer, it’s no coincidence that Charlie Morton took a big jump forward upon arriving in Houston in 2017. Then again, maybe Trevor Bauer should ask for a trade to the Astros to get himself right, but I digress.
Charlie Morton is throwing his curve more than ever before (36%) and it’s yielding phenomenal results. On the surface, he has career best ERA, WHIP, and K rate (30.4%). The curve is getting a 20% whiff rate (best of his career), 55.74% GB rate, .110 batting average against, and a .153 slugging against. Keep throwing those Uncle Charlies up there, Charlie.
Start Em If You Got Em
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
| DET | Spencer Turnbull | @KC | CLE |
| MIN | Martin Perez | SEA | KC |
| COL | German Marquez | CHC | SD |
| PIT | Joe Musgrove | @ATL | @MIA |
| LAA | Griffin Canning | LAD | @TB |
| TEX | Mike Minor* | @BOS | @CIN |
In late August 2018, Martin Perez gained 2-3 mph on his pitches and the increase has carried over to 2019 with the highest average velocity on the FB he’s ever shown. In addition to the velocity gains, he ditched his mediocre slider in favor of a cutter, which has a better whiff rate and batting average against than the slider ever did. He also seems more confident in the cutter than the slider throwing it 33.75% whereas the slider has never been throw even 13%.
I tend to be skeptical about new pitches as teams tend to pick on on them the more they see of it, and that fall may have started already, but he has two juicy match-ups this week to earn some trust back.This is likely the weakest second tier of two start pitchers that I have seen all year. Competing for top surprising pitcher of the year is Martin Perez along with the likes of Matthew Boyd, Jake Odorizzi, and Mike Minor.
Serviceable
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
| BAL | John Means | TOR | BOS |
| PIT | Chris Archer | @ATL | @MIA |
| CHC | Jose Quintana | @COL | @LAD |
Some of you may be surprised to see John Means on the list, but he’s earned it at this point with a sub 3 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP on the season. Primarily a FB/change up guy coming through the minors, it seems as though Means has found the right mix to hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s getting more comfortable with the slider, and is using it not only against lefties, but throwing it down and in to righties as well recently. His usage rate on the slider has more than doubled in May from under 10% previously to around 20%.
The K rate isn’t anything to write home about and the Red Sox are a less than ideal 2nd start, but he’s avoided bad blow ups this season outside of one 5 IP, 5 ER effort at the White Sox. This grouping is up and down, but for this week, serviceable feels about right.
Brown Paper Bag
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
| TOR | Trent Thornton | @BAL | @HOU |
| WSH | Anibal Sanchez | @CWS | ARZ |
| ATL | Mike Foltynewicz | PIT | PHI |
| PHI | Jerad Eickhoff | ARZ | @ATL |
| SEA | Mike Leake | @MIN | @OAK |
| ATL | Kevin Gausman | PIT | PHI |
None of the names on this list inspire much confidence. In fact, per Rudy’s player rater, the best rating of the group is .5 for Mike Leake. However, in a 2 start week, these are options you can start, but maybe not watch.
After 3 solid starts, Kevin Gausman has gotten lit up the last 2 starts. As far as I can tell, he’s just had terrible location on his pitches with too many hanging over the middle of the plate. Gausman has all but eliminated the slider from his pitch mix limiting it to the fastball and splitter, and I wonder if teams are catching up to that as well.
Eyes Wide Shut
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
| STL | Dakota Hudson | @MIA | @NYM |
| KC | Jakob Junis | DET | @MIN |
| CHC | Yu Darvish | @COL | @LAD |
| SF | Shaun Anderson | SD | MIL |
| MIA | Sandy Alcantara | STL | PIT |
| TEX | Ariel Jurado | @BOS | @CIN |
| ARZ | Jon Duplantier | @PHI | @WSH |
Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Jakob Junis
It seems like the Streamonator and I never agree on Junis. I would need some kind of blindfold to start him, but the ‘nator gives him the benefit of the doubt.
Immediately Regret This Decision
| Team | Player | Opponent 1 | Opponent 2 |
| OAK | Daniel Mengden | @TB | SEA |
| NYM | Jason Vargas | @NYY | STL |
| ARZ | Taylor Clarke | @PHI | @WSH |
| CWS | Dylan Covey | WSH | NYY |
Side Notes
- The Cardinals have a TBD for Monday. The educated guess is Daniel Ponce de Leon and he’d be in the Eyes Wide Shut category for me.
- Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 8 times in a row, well, I guess I should apologize. The Padres don’t let Chris Paddack get 2 starts even though he lines up for it every week, and I’m assuming this week won’t be any different. For the record, I’m not worried about Paddack. He’s just been missing his spots recently.
- Griffin Canning should have 2 starts next week, but the Angels have used 6 man rotations and there’s a chance it could be Felix Pena as well.
- The Red Sox have a TBD for Tuesday. Looks like it could be Ryan Weber and he’s a Regret This Decision guy for me.
- The Rockies have a TBD for Tuesday. Could be Peter Lambert who also goes in the Regret This Decision grouping.
- Surprise, surprise, the Rays have a TBD on Tuesday. I believe it will be Jalen Beeks as the primary/bulk pitcher. Stick him in the Brown Paper Bag grouping as the limited amount of innings makes it basically one full start for him in a 2 start week.
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| AL EAST | |
| BAL | Tuesday |
| BOS | Monday, Tuesday |
| NYY | Monday |
| TB | Monday, Tuesday |
| TOR | Tuesday |
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| AL CENTRAL | |
| CWS | Monday |
| CLE | X |
| DET | Tuesday |
| KC | Tuesday |
| MIN | Tuesday |
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| AL WEST | |
| HOU | X |
| LAA* | Monday |
| OAK | Monday |
| SEA | Tuesday |
| TEX | Monday, Tuesday |
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| NL EAST | |
| ATL | Monday, Tuesday |
| MIA | Monday |
| NYM | Monday |
| PHI | Monday |
| WSH | Monday |
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| NL CENTRAL | |
| CHC | Monday, Tuesday |
| CIN | X |
| MIL | X |
| PIT | Monday, Tuesday |
| STL | Monday, Tuesday |
| Team | Projected 2 Start Pitcher Days |
| NL WEST | |
| ARZ | Monday, Tuesday |
| COL | Monday, Tuesday |
| LAD | Monday |
| SD* | Tuesday |
| SF | X |
*Possible 6 man rotation
