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Didn’t think we’d be here a year ago.  Or near.  Dear, what an irrational fear.  Your grandmother is not going to get run over by a reindeer.  Greybot, malfunctioning, stuck in rhyme loop.  Must.  Find.  Way.  Out.  Talking.  Like.  William.  Shatner.  Does.  Not.  Help.  By the way, when William Shatner is asked his middle name, he should reply, “Period.”  Notice how there’s no sexual assault allegations regarding William Shatner?  That’s because there’s a pause every three seconds when you can run away.  Trevor Story went from a 1st round value in two-thirds of a season to a 2nd round draft pick to “Hmm, Zack Cozart is still on the board in the 12th round, and Trevor Story, but, damn, I don’t want Trevor Story do I?  I’d ask Grey, but he’s malfunctioning Greybot with a simplistic rhyme scheme like Pitbull.”  I resemble that remark!  Let’s go down memory lane for a second.  *opens mail*  I got a ticket because I didn’t have an E-Z Pass for Memory Lane?  Oh c’mon!  In 2016, Trevor Story hit 27 homers, stole 8 bags and hit .272.  In a full season last year, well, you didn’t want to own him.  I mean *shudders*  He ain’t got no alibi.  You feel me?  Okay, can you stop touching me, I’m a germaphobe.  So, what can we expect from Trevor Story for 2018 and what makes him a 2018 fantasy baseball sleeper?

Excellent question, Intro Paragraph.  “The question about E-Z Pass?”  No, Intro Paragraph, forget it.  Story’s biggest weakness?  No, not a rushed 3rd act.  It’s strikeouts.  This is my worry with guys like Story, Aaron Judge, really anyone that strikes out 30% of the time.  Their BABIP goes in the toilet, they press and strikeout even more, and they end up hitting .220.  Last year, Story struck out 34.4% of the time up from 31.3%, and his average plummeted to .239.  There’s positives in the splits, thankfully.  In the 2nd half, he hit .254 and his strikeout rate came down two percentage points.  Also, his fly balls came way down from 52% to 44%.  That sounds like a negative in Coors, and it could be, if his fly balls weren’t so abundant to begin with.  There was a lot made of his swing changes; he was lifting everything last year, especially in the 1st half.  54% is the top fly ball hitter in the majors (Joey Gallo), and, well, let’s just say, hitting everything in the air is fine, and all, but over 50% is crazy.  Hit a few line drives or even a ground ball or three.  A 44% fly ball rate is still plenty of fly balls, and would’ve been top 20 in the majors last year.  Story doesn’t need to hit more than fifty percent of balls in the air, and I think he figured that out as the season went on.  Also, he missed sixty games the previous year, and maybe he was rusty in the 1st half of last year, that would also explain his better 2nd half.  Finally, as he stopped hitting everything in the air, his Hard Contact percentage went from 31% to 49%.  49% would’ve been the best Hard Contact rate in the entire major leagues, to give you an idea how well he was seeing the ball in the 2nd half.  Story was a tale of two halfs, and the worst of times and the best of times, until he started hitting the Dickens out of the ball.  All of this is positive, and I haven’t even mentioned Coors, except in passing.  Oh my God, Coors passed away?!  Shut up, Random Italicized Voice.  This, my over-the-internet friends, is a sleeper.  For 2018, I’ll give Trevor Story the projections of 78/31/89/.247/8 in 575 ABs with a chance for much more.

   
  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    1000%! Here’s hoping that I can redraft my Story keeper (would have been $14) for much less than that keeper price in my 12 teamer.

  2. Five-On-One says:
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    575 ABs? No playing time concerns?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not right now, unless they trade for someone…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, c’mon Grimey! Give him one more chance!

  3. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Damn, you make a great case, but please don’t suck me back into Story!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cool Story, brah.

  4. Moneyball says:
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    Chapter 3: Story’s Revenge

    The puns and play-on-words alone are enough to bump him a round or two vs his ADP. (whatever it turns out to be in March)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Chapter 4: Story Breaks, An Intermission

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        @Grey:

        Chapter 5: Story works at Barnes and Noble

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Chapter 6: A Happy Ending To This Story

  5. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
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    I’m such a sucker for Coors too. Looking forward to actually being able to draft Story this year, his ADP was 24 in the RCLs last season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I saw in early mocks he’s not going until about 100 picks after that…

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
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        That’s prime pickins!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Prime Pickins sounds like a nickname of character in The Grapes of Wrath

          • Jack Deth says:
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            @Grey: or Slim Pickins better looking cousin

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Prime Pickins, I don’t mess with no divisible integers…

              • Jack Deth says:
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                @Grey: yup? You mad bro?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, nah… Just watching news as Netflix announces its crossover special between Shot in the Dark and Fire Chasers…

                  • Jack Deth says:
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                    @Grey: HAHAHA…Shit in the Fire? ….I mean Shot in the fair. I couldn’t undo that typo.

                    how is that air quality over there? We have a handful of clients near that skirball fire. Crossing fingers over here.

                    • Jack Deth says:
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                      Shot in the fire. Im typing too fast over here

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      HA, Shit on Fire is about right… Air quality is fine where I’m at in the flats… A bit of a smoke smell… I can see the smoke, and Skirball isn’t too far from me, maybe 10 miles… But it’s ten miles through a full on city landscape, which I don’t think fire can do *stop googling huge fire in San Fran at turn of century*

                    • Jack Deth says:
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                      You should be fine unless the winds kick up really bad then it can jump all over the place like Q-Bert

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, then I’ll be screaming &@$/!?

  6. Count de Monetball says:
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    Ha ha, Rafael Palmero is going to attempt to come back at the age of 53; What do you project for him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’ll be better than Joe Mauer

      • M says:
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        @Grey: is he still on the juice

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Which? Viagra?

          • Jack Deth says:
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            @Grey: he wants in on the juiced ball

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Everyone does, I do, for sure

              • Jack Deth says:
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                @Grey: I just looked up the highest HR/9 pitchers (qualified) of the last ten years and AJ Griffin (1.77) was numero uno. I was hoping Jared Weaver was on there because I was going to say with these juiced balls and 100 at bats I could hit a dong off him…..in Colorado….on a hot day…with a 20 mph wind going out to left….and an aluminum bat

                Other interesting notes. In the last 10 years the top 4 HR/FB pitchers are Perdomo, Tanaka, Keuchel and Severino. Funny that the top guy comes from a pitchers park and the other three hitters parks. Another side note as I clicked on Keuchel. He went back to similar usage patterns to 2015 and got not as good but similar results to that year. Oddly in 2016 his strand rate was an abysmal 68%. Obviously he had other things going on…… speaking of strand rate, Last year the worst starter for strand rate (among qualified) was Fulmer at 65.6%, which considering he had a 3.83 ERA makes him kinda enticing (he had a 79% the year before). Is that the league catching up with him? The fact he was on a team that mailed it in at the break? Another guy that caught my eye was Arrieta. a 72.8% strand rate, good for 20th worst (among qualified) and an ERA less than 4. When I scrolled down I noticed that rate has been going the wrong way the last two years like a lot of his stats. SWSTR at a low of 8.7, contact up at 80%, FB% up over 6%, more hitters pulling the ball, velocity drop, cutter in the negative for once. Now, I’ve watched him pitch and he can still pitch, but I wonder if the Cubs are really shitty with their pitchers. I remember when he came to the Cubs he said he did so well because they let him throw, didn’t try to change him and just let him do his thing. Now this may have worked then but I think dude needs to go to a team that can fix his issues. Regardless of the numbers he can still pitch when he needs to. On the right club and he could be really good again….damn Steamer has him as a 4.20 pitcher next year.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I hate Arrieta, have for two years… Hitters will catch up to him one of these years and I agree with Steamer, he’s just not the guy he used to be… Fulmer’s had major surgery, so he’s bleh anyway… That makes sense with Keuchel, funny the last few news reports on him have been from TMZ…

                  • Jack Deth says:
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                    @Grey: Fulmer could be a kinda deal next year. If Arrieta gets with the right team ie pitching coach then I think we might have something worth owning or at least worth where you would have to draft him. It seems like the Cubs handle pitchers not so good

  7. Willy Mo says:
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    Trade darvish for story?

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Grey: where about roughly do u see darvish go in early drafts?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He’s going around top 70

          • Willy Mo says:
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            @Grey: thanks, yeah that sounds about right. maybe he goes a round or 2 earlier caus of name value.

            I prolly made a bad trade last year in a max keep your best 4 players at no cost for up to 3 years 12 teamer.

            2 for 1 – sent anthony rizzo for jose abreu and yu darvish. I thought darvish would be worth keeping but really if the player isnt like top 50 i should send him back to the player pool and take a draft pick for the 4th round. I have altuve, abreu and springer nobody else top 50

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’d prefer Rizzo overall, but that’s not a terrible deal… Abreu is close to Rizzo and Yu’re throwing him in…

  8. William Hung says:
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    I am picturing a team with Aaron Judge, Trevor Story, Joey Gallo, both Kris/Chris Davis, Thames, and Tim Beckham… I shall call it… POWER SURGE!!! or Power Outage when they all go 0/15 with 13 Ks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hahaha… The All or Nothing Gang

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Not Your AVG Joe (or AVG anything)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Your AVG Joey Votto, how have I not said that before?

  9. Test Kitchen says:
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    Grey,

    Where should I be valuing Severino? Top 10 SP?

    Where should I be valuing Rendon in an OBP/SLG keeper league? Top 50 are kept. Is he maybe in the 30-40 overall range?

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes, around top 10, he’s around 40-55

      • Test Kitchen says:
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        @Grey: Much appreciated.

        Think Pham is in that same 40-55 range? Having a hard time figuring him given his age/lack of history to back up his performance.

        • Jack Deth says:
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          @Test Kitchen: His chances of repeating are slimmer than pickens

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, I wouldn’t touch Pham there

          • Test Kitchen says:
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            @Grey: What about Bregman or Lamb in OBP/SLG, borderline top 50 Keepers? Severino over both of them I assume?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Bregman is, Lamb’s not…Bregman and Severino are toss up

  10. John says:
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    So I should focus on Story vs, JP Crawford as my starter in keeper league next season?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Story

      • John says:
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        @Grey: What about Crawford? Is he distined for stardom or overrated. And what pos second, third or short?

  11. Jack Straw says:
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    Who do you like better for 2018 (and to a lesser degree beyond 2018):

    W. Merrifield in an AL only 10 team roto

    Or

    A. Wood in an NL only 10 team roto

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s apples and oranges… Guess go hitter… Merrifield

  12. los locos says:
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    Rank Kluber for next season.

    I can keep 3 pitchers kershaw strausburg and.. either Nola or tailon but possiblly trade for kluber.

  13. Matt says:
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    Interesting take on Trevor Story. I’ve had him for four years, yes two of them he was in the minors. Obviously, with that kind of investment, I’m not giving up on him after just one bad season. And, yes, I was much happier with his second half. Thanks for the info on the flyball rates and hard-contact rates changing like they did. I’m sure he must have adjusted his swing or approach at the break.

    Here’s my question. Do you think beyond 2018 Story sticks at shortstop or Brendan Rodgers bumps him off the position? My personal opinion is Rodgers gets moved to 2B, he’s played there in the minors quite a bit, and LeMahieu won’t be re-signed as he becomes a free agent following 2018. I’ve seen the Rockies in person, three games last year in STL, and Story is a fabulous fielder, better than Rodgers. All Story has to do is hit .240 to stay in the lineup. LeMahieu didn’t impress me at all. His numbers appear spiked by the friendliness of Coors. Do you agree or do you think Story eventually loses his job to Rodgers with LeMahieu sticking at 2B.

    • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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      @Matt: Indeed, Story’s D is baddabing, will ensure AB’s, he’ll be the guy unless he collapses again w bat. Rodgers might push LeMahieu out in ’18 and get 180 AB’s in 2017 filling in, but that infield D is toit. I’m hoping they don’t change a thing.

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