The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball. These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings. The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting. Shortly, there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man. I’m thinking this afternoon. Monday funday! The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves. It’s a fool’s errand. If fool’s errand means what I think it does. Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling Albert Nobbs) don’t even attempt to predict saves. Saves come down to opportunity. This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys. Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Craig Kimbrel – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Storen. I call this tier, “Young, dumb and full of speed gun.” To illustrate further why you shouldn’t draft a top guy, the top three closers when rankings came out last year were Carlos Marmol, Neftali and Soria. I wasn’t bonkers with a side of delusional when I put those three at the top. It just shows you the fickliosity (Made Up Word of the Day!) of the closers. The good news is the guys I told you to target later are now on the top of the rankings. Sure, I’d love to get Kimbrel. Like I’m Samuel Gerard. Just don’t think it’s happening. 2012 Projections: 5-2/2.20/1.08/110, 40 saves
2. John Axford – I love the fact that he accepted K-Rod coming to the Brewers, took a dump in his locker* and kept on saving games. (*Unsubstantiated claim that K-Rod assumed was his father-in-law. K-Rod and his father-in-law are now thick as thieves and have decided to settle all arguments with a round of laser tag.) 2012 Projections: 5-1/2.40/1.16/90, 38 saves
3. Drew Storen – You want a donkeycorn?! You can’t handle a donkeycorn! Cause they’re wild, bucking animals. You should get a lamb. They’re peaceful. 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.50/1.04/75, 38 saves
4. Mariano Rivera – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Putz. I call this tier, “Not young, not dumb, but will get the job done.” These guys are not flashy names anymore. Well, maybe Mo a little, but for the most part there’s no shine on these guys. Whatever, you just want saves. Stop being so greedy. 2012 Projections: 2-3/2.40/0.95/55, 40 saves
5. Jonathon Papelbon – Whatever junk Papelbon was smoking in 2010 when his ERA was 3.90, he stopped smoking it in 2011 when his K-rate was 12+ and his ERA was 2.94. Or maybe he wasn’t smoking in 2010 and was smoking in 2011. Or maybe he wasn’t smoking either year, but standing near Terry Francona when he was smoking. Either way, Papelbon now faces the NL and not the Yankees for 18 games a year, 17 of which are televised. 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.65/1.00/80, 37 saves
6. Jose Valverde – Everyone is picking the Tigers for the World Series, so naturally Valverde is going to be five kinds of wonderful with a side of “This is better than sex!” Then again, the Cards and Rangers’ closers weren’t so good last year, so, yeah, it makes little difference. Not to say I don’t like Valverde, just putting shizz into perspective. 2012 Projections: 3-3/3.00/1.22/65, 35 saves
7. Brian Wilson – He had a bit of a junky season last year. Yet, he still had 36 saves and a 3.11 ERA. You could’ve done worse *cough* Soria *cough* 2012 Projections: 5-3/2.90/1.32/70, 35 saves
8. J.J. Putz – I struggled with whether to put Putz (almost stutterer!) in the next tier of guys that I’m wary of or if I should say he’ll be fine in this tier. After battling with myself over this Putz for about fifteen minutes, I worried I might go blind and just ranked him here. He is a bit of a one man MASH unit, which makes sense since his full name is Jamie Jfarr Putz. 2012 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 32 saves
9. Heath Bell – This is a new tier. This tier goes to Hanrahan. I call this tier, “High ranked closers that I’m a bit wary of. Not enough to kick out of bed, but enough to wonder why I’m in bed with them.” The factory underneath Petco that produces middle men that become all-world closers released a report after Bell signed with Miami. “Miami has a team? Oh, Florida! We’re sorry to see Heath Bell leave our organization. He was a valued member of our bullpen. But, really, anyone can close games in Petco. Have you seen our fences? Trick question. You haven’t seen the fences because they’re three miles from home plate. Good luck in Miami!” 2012 Projections: 4-3/3.25/1.18/50, 37 saves
10. Carlos Marmol – I usually tell you to ignore potential trades and that other foolishness, but Epstein is dead set on shaking up the Cubs and putting his stamp on the club, so I could see Marmol setting things up for a playoff contender by mid-summer. I know if I was headed to the playoffs I’d love to have Marmol in the 8th inning. 2012 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.35/100, 25 saves
11. Joakim Soria – Could totally bounce back, but why am I risking it if he doesn’t? There’s no other closers? Of course there is. If I can avoid risk with a fairly high ranked closer, I am. 2012 Projections: 3-2/3.35/1.25/65, 35 saves
12. Joel Hanrahan – Hanrahananananan is a bit of wild card. I think he can save 40 games again with a 9 K/9 and a sub-2 ERA or he can save 25 games and a high-3 ERA. Plus, drafting him is a bit like OD’ing on tryptophananananananan. Snooooooooze. (BTW, after this blurb, my spellchecker quit on me. Just got up and walked out of the room.) 2012 Projections: 2-4/3.35/1.20/65, 34 saves
13. Ryan Madson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Street. I call this tier, “I’ll probably own these guys on multiple teams; this tier name doesn’t rhyme and isn’t pithy.” You want guys that can become the top four for (stutterer!) next year. Here’s your tier, snitches! Assuming Madson doesn’t stumble for any extended period of time, he’ll be more valuable than this ranking. The only big issue is Dusty waking up with his toothpick on the wrong side of his mouth and deciding Madson’s no longer his closer. 2012 Projections: 5-2/3.00/1.22/60, 32 saves
14. Kenley Jansen – I have a bit of a soft spot for high upside mid-tier closers. Or is that a hard spot? It’s why I ended up with Kimbrel and Axford on multiple teams last year and will be eying Jansen this year. As of right now, he’s not officially the closer, but I think it happens. If you want him, you’re gonna have to draft him around here. I say do it. 2012 Projections: 1-3/2.25/1.00/85, 25 saves
15. Jason Motte – I’m hoping with La Russa’s Feathered Hair moving on to grayer pastures that the Cards bullpen will be a lot more stable. If I had Madson, Jansen and Motte on every team as my only closers, I’d be so happy I’d cancel all future shrink appointments, except the ones on Tuesday because I stepped on a sidewalk crack last week. 2012 Projections: 3-4/2.50/1.10/65, 27 saves
16. Huston Street – If you hold what I said about Heath Bell in the mirror, that’s what I have to say about Street and why I like him this year. Of course, he can’t stay healthy without the help of magical potion or whatever it was that Ryan Braun took. 2012 Projections: 2-4/3.00/1.10/50, 30 saves
17. Andrew Bailey – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Thornton. I call this tier, “Closers that I’m probably going to miss out on, but SAGNOF tells us saves are saves are saves so I could draft one of these guys.” A few things separate Huston Street from Andrew Bailey. 1.) Tougher home park. 2.) Tougher league. 3.) There’s no 3. 4.) Bailey’s going much higher in drafts than Street. 2012 Projections: 3-1/3.30/1.10/50, 34 saves
18. Sergio Santos – If someone said they were a time traveler and they just returned from 2013 and Santos is now the top closer, I wouldn’t be surprised though I would wonder why they used their time traveling ability for something so trivial. My problem with Santos is his walks and he has a capable closer behind him. A few screw ups and he’s out. I did flip-flop on Santos since the last time I wrote about him. A girl and Grey have a right to change their mind. I do know what I was thinking with that post. Ks, Ks, Ks… And more Ks. Now, I’m getting cold feet. Stupid poor circulation! 2012 Projections: 3-5/3.70/1.24/80, 25 saves
19. Rafael Betancourt – Maybe once and for all he can shake the Cuddle Boy label. Maybe I don’t want to risk it on my team to find out. Fairly wellesley, Dame Betancourt! 2012 Projections: 4-2/3.50/1.10/65, 25 saves
20. Matt Thornton – He’s 35 years old and he has 20 career saves. By season end, Hawk says about Thornton, “He gone!” and the White Sox try out Addison Reed or Jesse Crain. 2012 Projections: 5-4/3.75/1.22/65, 20 saves
After the top 20 closers, there’s a lot of names you should draft and I’ll go over all of them. Here’s three that stand out:
Chris Perez – Coming off a season with a 5.88 K/9 and a 3.92 BB/9. That’s the new blech. Again, I would take any closer that had a job, but don’t let Perez’s 36 saves last year cause you to overpay. 2012 Projections: 2-5/4.00/1.28/45, 25 saves
Joe Nathan – When he went to the Rangers, I wrote my Joe Nathan fantasy. If you hold it up to a mirror, it’s very difficult to read. 2012 Projections: 3-4/3.75/1.18/45, 30 saves
Juan Abreu – Who? Did I mean to type Joan Abreu, Bobby’s loving Momsie? I think I might’ve. And I think Bobby’s Momsie is the favorite to get saves in Houston. Whatever! SAGNOF! If someone’s getting saves, draft them! 2012 Projections: 1-4/2.70/1.28/70, 20 saves
