Remember when it was July and we were all watching Stranger Things for the first time and getting Covid for the fourth time and I mentioned that a lot of fantasy baseball leagues were a matter of weeks away from the playoffs? Hey Siri, tell me what I said a few weeks ago. Weird thing is, Siri could actually do that, but Siri just doesn’t want you to know they could do that. Just like I could tell you that Grey has been wearing the same pair of “lucky” socks since 2007, but he doesn’t want you to know that. ENYWHEY.
As we look into the crystal ball that reveals the pitchers of the future, let’s take a special look to see which pitchers might take a breather along the way and become less useful for fantasy managers in the playoffs. Before we get too far, it’s worthwhile to note — this kind of discussion isn’t an exact science. However, there are factors that clue us in to which pitchers will be less or more useful to fantasy managers in the playoffs.
News and Notes
Tony Gonsolin: Gonsolin is perhaps the least interesting 13-1 pitcher in MLB history. Even his 1.9 WAR recognizes this. I mean, Jose Quintana is 3-5 and has a higher WAR (2.2) than Tony Gonsolin (1.9). We’ve seen Gonsolin come back to earth recently, and he sports a 5+ ERA with a FIP near 4 over the past month. Probably more relevant to the fantasy playoffs, is that Gonsolin has made it to the 6th inning only once in the past month and in 3 out of his last 8 games. Gonsolin’s fastball is still doing its thing and he’s not exhibiting ridiculously obvious levels of “give me a break,” but Gonsolin hasn’t pitched more than 120 combined innings in a year since 2018. His IP count in 2022 so far? 110. What’s more, is the Dodgers will have a handful of starters coming back from injury who will need to get some innings under their belt before the real MLB playoffs. Those extra mouths will chomp IP, and whether they come at the cost of Gonsolin’s appearances remains to be seen. From a fantasy perspective, if your team has relied on Gonsolin this year, I recommend diversifying your pitcher portfolio fast. Dustin May is available in a ton of leagues and has a similar K/9 profile as Gonsolin. May will be back in MLB any minute — add him to balance out Gonsolin.
Nestor Cortes: If there’s a classic profile for “load management,” it would be a guy like Nestor Cortes. Cortes has multiple years topping out around 110ish total IP, and Cortes just reached 112IP for 2022. But what’s really, really special about Nasty Nestor? His fastball is increasing in velocity as the year goes on. There are some weeds in the Nestor nest — a mere 7.7 K/9 over the past month with an xFIP above 4.00 — but the stats are suggesting that Nestor should finish out 2022 well enough for fantasy managers. With the recent announcement that Luis Severino will be on the IL until mid-September, the Yankees’ rotation is uncongested for the bulk of the foreseeable fantasy future. Stay nasty, Nestor.
Shohei Ohtani: Clearly, Ohtani’s never missed arm day. Whatever is going on with those limbs, I want some of that. Last year, when Ohtani was still “recovering” from Tommy John surgery, the Angels never quit Ohtani. They practically walked him up the mountain in denim and cowboy hats and made us want a sequel. So, 2022: the Angels are completely out of the running for a playoff wild card spot, and Trout and Rendon are hurt again. The Angels already discussed trading Ohtani at the deadline, and have indicated they’re interested in trade talks during the off-season. Even if the Angels decide that they’re holding Ohtani oh so close, then they still have to consider that Ohtani is up for arbitration this winter, and allowing him to pitch more could increase his wages. Perish the thought! But we saw something similar-ish happen last year when Shane Bieber said he was healthy enough to come back from injury, but the Guardians kept him away from the mound for most of the second half of the season. The fishwraps reported the “bonus” that Shane Bieber received when the Guardians rewarded a $6-million contract to their Cy Young-award winning, 2-time All-Star pitcher. Just so we’re clear, Antonio Senzatela — who is the same age as Shane Bieber and has half of the career WAR in roughly the same innings — makes $7.2 million per year. ENYWHEY. Think about the Bieber situation in the context of Ohtani. You’re the Angels, and you’re rebuilding around Ohtani via trade or via commitment. Do you keep Ohtani working hard in 2022, when there’s zero chance of the playoffs and a veritable cornucopia of arms willing to finish out 2022? Or do you let the face of your franchise –and the reigning MLB MVP — take it easy down the stretch and protect your investment for whatever you chose to do in 2023? This one could go either way. You choose your own outcome here, but I would be suspicious of pitcher Ohtani’s value in the fantasy playoffs.
Justin Verlander: This [waves arms around at Justin Verlander being #1 on the Razzball Player Rater] wasn’t supposed to happen. 39-year-olds coming back from Tommy John surgery aren’t supposed to be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball, not when there’s guys like Miles Mikolas around. So, how ya doin’ Verny? Oy vey. Let’s get the Tiger out of the room: much of Verlander’s 2022 value has come from luck: he’s got 15 wins in 20 games started. He’s got an ERA that’s 1.20 points lower than his xERA, and 1.70 points lower than his xFIP. His SIERA — which is the most predictive stat once a volume of IP accumulates — is 3.30, which is [does napkin math] way higher than his 1.70 ERA. Mind you, 3.30 is still very good. It’s just not Pedro Martinez-levels of good. You know what they say: Red sky at night, Astros delight. Red sky at dawn, Astros take…prawns. I dunno. What’s clear is that Verlander should be tiring out soon, but there are some factors that come into play, like the fact that this could be his last year pitching. Verlander has a player option on his contract after 2022, but what are the odds he comes back? Not a lot of starting pitchers past 40 years old in MLB: Rich Hill and Adam Wainwright this year, and then the previous one was 45-year-old Bartolo Colon in 2018 (memories!). Verlander has $300+ million in career earnings, an MVP, 2 Cy Youngs, and a World Series ring. He could literally pitch until his arm fell off in 2022. But truth is, the Astros need a guy like Verlander in the playoffs, and they have a 12-game lead in the AL West. Perhaps the most likely narrative is that Verlander eases a bit on IP in the regular season (bad for the fantasy playoffs) and then cranks it up for the MLB playoffs (irrelevant for fantasy). That said, we’re dealing with a first ballot HOF’er — Verlander can call his shot. He’ll want to go out on top, and fantasy managers will ride along no matter what.
Logan Webb: Fastball in his last start was down 2MPH over his season average, and he’s approaching his career max IP. Tread cautiously.
Adam Wainwright: Not that he’s a velocity monster, but he’s lost over 1.5MPH from his fastball in the past few starts. Watch out for pain, right?
Shane Bieber: Fastball is still there, but it’s also 2-3 MPH lower than where it was in 2020/2021. If I’m Bieber, there’s not a ton of motivation to throw as hard as I can: the Guardians jettisoned a bunch of their top talent, and they’re still in second place in the worst division in MLB. What’s more, Bieber is still not eligible for free agency, and he won’t be for another fraking 3 years. Bieber’s been pretty good recently, but it’s worth pointing out that he’s 30IP over his 2021 volume already.
Shane McClanahan: For fracks’ sake people overreact to natural variations in performance. Long-time readers will remember that Gerrit Cole regularly goes through really tough spots every year. Like, Gerrit Cole has a 5 ERA over his last six starts and I’m still watching touts cheer him every outing. Over McClanahan’s last six starts, he has a lower ERA (3.41), lower FIP (2.76), and higher swinging-strike rate (16%) than Gerrit Cole. Why do people lose faith so quickly? McClanahan’s fastball is struggling a bit, but there’s no major sign of worry. Sure, he’s matching his career-high for IP and he plays for the Rays — tons of opportunities for IP limits coming up. But McClanahan’s style of pitching is efficiency-based, and he needs only 150-160IP to put up the same fantasy value as 180IP+ pitchers. Keep rolling with McClanahan through your fantasy playoffs. Variance is natural — there will be better performances and worse performances, and sometimes the timing of this variance is inconvenient for your fantasy success. But the far worse mistake is to doubt the stats behind a player’s success.
The Rankings
I’m cutting down even further — I think there’s only Garrett Whitlock remaining for the Roleless Robs. Feel free to start players in favorable matchups regardless of their ranking. Good luck!
Tier | Name | Team | Confidence | Own% | L30$/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | 5.424 | 100 | 23.9 |
1 | Carlos Rodon | SF | 5.264 | 100 | 22.6 |
1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 5.257 | 100 | 1.3 |
1 | Shane McClanahan | TB | 5.176 | 100 | -2 |
1 | Max Scherzer | NYM | 5.054 | 100 | 39.2 |
1 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 4.992 | 100 | -2 |
1 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 4.941 | 100 | -4.4 |
1 | Dylan Cease | CHW | 4.827 | 100 | 53.1 |
1 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 4.822 | 100 | 1.9 |
1 | Cristian Javier | HOU | 4.765 | 100 | -21.4 |
1 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 4.666 | 100 | 10.7 |
1 | Blake Snell | SD | 4.499 | 100 | 30.8 |
1 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.176 | 100 | 16.3 |
1 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | 3.922 | 98 | -22.6 |
1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 3.922 | 100 | 28.9 |
1 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 3.899 | 100 | 35.5 |
1 | Max Fried | ATL | 3.878 | 100 | -11 |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 3.839 | 95 | 15.8 |
1 | Hunter Greene | CIN | 3.833 | 55 | 5.1 |
1 | Alex Cobb | SF | 3.825 | 70 | -11.1 |
1 | Yu Darvish | SD | 3.760 | 100 | 33.8 |
1 | Justin Verlander | HOU | 3.672 | 100 | 64.5 |
1 | Jon Gray | TEX | 3.658 | 66 | 10.7 |
1 | Joe Musgrove | SD | 3.639 | 100 | -38.4 |
1 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 3.639 | 100 | 11.9 |
1 | Luis Castillo | SEA | 3.606 | 100 | 29.5 |
2 | Alex Wood | SF | 3.548 | 70 | 9.1 |
2 | Corey Kluber | TB | 3.543 | 86 | -12.3 |
2 | Frankie Montas | NYY | 3.531 | 100 | -5.9 |
2 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | 3.518 | 100 | -2.6 |
2 | Tyler Mahle | MIN | 3.517 | 100 | 14.1 |
2 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 3.510 | 100 | -9.9 |
2 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 3.510 | 100 | -27.4 |
2 | Charlie Morton | ATL | 3.479 | 100 | -2.6 |
2 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 3.474 | 98 | -35 |
2 | Chris Bassitt | NYM | 3.472 | 100 | 8.8 |
2 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 3.458 | 100 | 20.2 |
2 | Martin Perez | TEX | 3.457 | 100 | 9.1 |
2 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 3.450 | 100 | 42.4 |
2 | Robbie Ray | SEA | 3.448 | 100 | -31.1 |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 3.424 | 100 | -4 |
2 | Alek Manoah | TOR | 3.413 | 100 | 20.2 |
2 | Brady Singer | KC | 3.398 | 73 | 3 |
2 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 3.393 | 100 | 7.7 |
2 | Logan Webb | SF | 3.382 | 100 | -13.6 |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 3.377 | 100 | -3.5 |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 3.377 | 100 | -3.5 |
2 | Jose Quintana | STL | 3.361 | 39 | -10.7 |
2 | Tyler Anderson | LAD | 3.354 | 100 | 19.8 |
2 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 3.346 | 100 | 0 |
2 | Justin Steele | CHC | 3.344 | 16 | -4.7 |
2 | Jeffrey Springs | TB | 3.336 | 73 | -4.2 |
2 | George Kirby | SEA | 3.327 | 93 | -2.2 |
2 | Julio Urias | LAD | 3.316 | 100 | 34.2 |
2 | Kyle Wright | ATL | 3.312 | 100 | 4.1 |
2 | Sonny Gray | MIN | 3.290 | 100 | -19.6 |
2 | Luis Severino | NYY | 3.287 | 91 | -103.9 |
2 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 3.273 | 100 | 17.5 |
2 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | 3.259 | 73 | 6.7 |
2 | JT Brubaker | PIT | 3.257 | 14 | -54.6 |
2 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 3.227 | 100 | -35.8 |
2 | Sean Manaea | SD | 3.218 | 95 | -33 |
2 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 3.216 | 100 | 16 |
2 | Jameson Taillon | NYY | 3.210 | 89 | -24.7 |
2 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 3.204 | 100 | 6.7 |
2 | Jordan Montgomery | STL | 3.178 | 100 | -25.3 |
2 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 3.147 | 43 | -84.2 |
Hi Blair,
should I stay with the plan;
1. start Mikolas and sit Aaron Ashby?
2. Start Tyler Anderson and sit Brady Singer?
thanks again!
martin
Hi Blair,
would you waive Jeffrey Springs to get Nick Pivetta?
thanks!!
Martin
Yeah that’s fine — Pivetta has a couple nice matchups coming up so I’d switch to him
thanks
14 Team Dynasty
A or B?
A. Ketel Marte, Ashby and Dunning
B. Nolan Jones, Jesus Sanchez, Brady Singer and Aroldis Chapman
A. Ketel Marte, DJ Lamahieu, Ashby, Dunning
B. Nolan Jones, Jesus Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Brady Singer
Hey Dude!
Honestly they’re all pretty close. Maybe I’ll put it this way: I’m not interested in Dunning, Chapman, Singer, or Lemahieu at this point. Sanchez worries me too. So, that makes it Ketel/Ashby vs Jones/Luzardo. I think Jones/Luzardo has more upside in dynasty, so I go in that direction.
Not sure if this helps, but that’s my thought process! :)
Hi Blair,
I was thinking of your advice
I have Josh Bell, Rowdy Tellez, Wilmer Flores and Kris Bryant (IL) who are available to play first base. I was thinking of therefore offering CJ Cron and Jeffery Springs for Framber Valdez. Is this a good idea?
Thanks!!!
Sure, give it a shot
thanks!!
no joy in Mudville. He turned it down. not unexpected. thanks for helping. As the legendary Bill Veeck said “ sometimes the best trades are the ones that you don’t make”.
Hi Blair,
1. One of the managers offered me Framber Valdez for Corbin Burnes who is my ace. i was going to turn it down. Do you agree?
2. He also has Yu Darvish and Shane Bieber on his staff. what about asking for one of these two as well as Valdez. Who would you ask for? i then could also add Jeffrey Springs if you think that I should. What are your thoughts?
thanks again!
martin
great advice! thanks!
Hi Blair,
Do you feel like a genus? i followed your advice and started Brady Singer (plus 30 points) and I also sat Mikolas at Colorado (he was minus 39 points). Thanks so much!
1. Singer’s next start is at KC against the Dodgers. I was going to sit him. What are your thoughts?
2. Singer’s next start after LAD is at Tampa. i was going to start him against TB. Do you agree?
3.St Louis’ Mikolas next start is at home against the Brewers. Would you start him?
Thanks again! Life is good when you make the right fantasy pitching dec!
martin
Just doing my best, but you’re the one doing the work!
Because you’re running out of GS, I’d sit Singer vs LAD and sit Mikolas vs MIL. Singer vs Tampa is a close call but if his LAD outing is tolerable, then I’d let him start vs Tampa. Singer hasn’t really put together a string of outings this good in his career before so we’re getting pretty risky.
Thanks for remembering about GS.
i appreciate all these details!
martin
Hi Blair,
i am leaning to sitting the Cards Mikolas at Colorado. Do you agree?
thanks again for all your help!
martin
I’m fine with that — no point in using up a start in Coors with a low K/9 pitcher
thanks so much!!!
Hi Blair,
always enjoy your in-depth responses!
is it worth trying to trade for Jesus Lazardo of Miami or Edward Cabrera of Miami? if yes, would your offer CJ Cron and Aaron Ashby?
Thanks!!
Yeah, try for Luzardo. He’s pretty similar to Ashby but Luzardo has more MLB experience and an even higher K rate — upside ahoy! You can try that offer — i think it’s fair.
thanks!!
thank you!
Mahle is a top ___ AL starter next year.
In my heart: Top 10.
In my stat sheet: Top 25.
Most likely: Twins trade him. We’ll see what happens with that weird Correa contract — if Correa’s out, Twins will either move Mahle in the off-season or do a mid-season trade of Mahle next year.
I agree that a compressed list is appropriate from now forward. And as I read the list, I see at least 10% further omissions next week.
a. Severino; Jon Gray; Skubal; and Hunter Greene are no longer active.
b. Manaea; Pivetta; and Kyle Wright also now seem to have lost any relevence.
Yeah I’m running into some issues with the “games remaining” metric. Likely need to jettison that entirely next week. Thanks for the heads up!
Maybe I just don’t understand your math. I’m confused by the high Ashby ranking.
He’s a loser of 4 straight, and a WHIP killer.
How do you lose to that Reds lineup??
His stuff is naaaaasty
Rankings are highly impacted by K/9 and FIP, which are great predictors of future performance. Recent Ashby is 11.5 K/9 (way above average) and a 3.80 FIP (remembering: Dylan Cease’s combined FIP since 2020 is 3.75). So, there’s signs that Ashby can be dominant. Problem is, the true skill metrics indicate what should happen, and reality is sometimes vastly different. Comes with the ranking territory, unfortunately.
Lynn is getting me excited. Velo keeps ticking up.
I just want to see him yelling at people after strikeouts. Put that on repeat.
Hi Blair,
i am down to 340 innings or 56 starts.
Should I try to limit my picks to seven or eight starts per week. Do you agree with this approach? If i follow this approach then i would start:
1. Corbin Burnes at St. louis
2. C. Javier home against Oakland
3. Tyler Anderson at KC
4. Mikolas home against Milwaukee
5. Mike Clevinger at Washington
6. Pablo Lopez at home against Atlanta
7. Alex Wood at home against Pitt
1. Do you agree with the decision to start these above seven?
2. Please let me know if you would start or sit:
A. Jeffrey Springs of TB at Milwaukee.
B. Brady Singer at home against CHW
C. Alex Cobb at home against AZ
d. Miles Mikolas of StL at Colorado
3.Should I keep Aaron Ashby?
Thanks for all your help and insight!
Martin
Yeah, those are all fine starts — I’m more worried about Anderson from doing some research this weekend but not enough to stop starting him.
I’d try Singer vs CHW, Cobb vs AZ. As much as my system likes Ashby (11.5 K/9! 3.80 FIP!), fantasy leagues aren’t won by waiting for things to happen — time is running out and you can let him go.
Thanks! Great insight!
would you waive Ashby to pick up Justin Steele of Chi Cubs for Steel next start at home against Washington or considering my inning just pass on this move? His razz dollars are minus 7 although some fantasy writers like this start?
one other question. i was going to pass and sit the Giants Cobb at SD. do you agree?
thanks again so much for your detailed responses!
martin
Fantasy writers hate the Nationals and they want to start everybody against that lineup. So, it’s a tossup for Steele, but Rudy’s system is telling you to be extremely careful — I’d avoid.
Yeah, SD looks like a lineup to avoid, and I wouldn’t start any non-ace vs SD once Tatis is back in the lineup.
great advice! thanks!