Back in October I sequestered myself into a sound-proof booth to create a top 100 fantasy baseball prospect list free from the mad cries of the echo chamber. Shortly thereafter I went to work breaking down the top prospects for each MLB team. A week after coming up for air following my 30-team deep dive into the minor leagues, I’m excited to share my updated hundred!

 

*Note: I’ve written about each of these guys if you’d like more and are curious enough to follow the threads to October’s Top 150 for 2020 Fantasy Baseball or my organizational top ten lists.

 

Rank Player Position Team ETA
1 Wander Franco SS TB 2021
2 Luis Robert OF CHW 2020
3 Jo Adell OF LAA 2020
4 Gavin Lux 2B LAD 2019
5 CJ Abrams SS SD 2023
6 Julio Rodriguez OF SEA 2021
7 Marco Luciano SS SF 2022
8 Jasson Dominguez OF NYY 2024
9 MacKenzie Gore LHP SD 2020
10 Vidal Brujan 2B TB 2021
11 Dylan Carlson OF STL 2020
12 Jarred Kelenic OF SEA 2021
13 Andrew Vaughn 1B CHW 2021
14 Kristian Robinson OF ARI 2022
15 Jesus Luzardo LHP OAK 2019
16 Oneil Cruz SS PIT 2021
17 Royce Lewis SS MIN 2021
18 Corbin Carroll OF ARI 2022
19 Adley Rutschman C BAL 2022
20 Brennen Davis OF CHC 2022
21 Bobby Witt Jr. SS KC 2023
22 Evan White 1B SEA 2020
23 Alex Kiriloff 1B MIN 2020
24 Alex Bohm 3B PHI 2020
25 Nate Pearson RHP TOR 2020
26 Spencer Howard RHP PHI 2020
27 Brendan McKay LHP TB 2019
28 Carter Kieboom 3B WSH 2019
29 Forrest Whitley RHP HOU 2020
30 Tarik Skubal LHP DET 2020
31 AJ Puk LHP OAK 2019
32 Dustin May RHP LAD 2019
33 Casey Mize RHP DET 2020
34 Matt Manning RHP DET 2020
35 Nick Madrigal 2B CHW 2020
36 Luis Patiño RHP SD 2020
37 Brailyn Marquez LHP CHC 2021
38 Nick Solak U TEX 2019
39 Luis Matos OF SF 2022
40 Noelvi Marte SS SEA 2022
41 Xavier Edwards SS TB 2022
42 Trevor Larnach OF MIN 2021
43 Sean Murphy C OAK 2019
44 Aaron Bracho 2B CLE 2022
45 Jazz Chisholm SS MIA 2020
46 Jeter Downs SS BOS 2021
47 Michael Kopech RHP CHW 2018
48 Joey Bart C SF 2021
49 Sam Hilliard OF COL 2019
50 George Valera OF CLE 2022
51 Drew Waters OF ATL 2020
52 Cristian Pache OF ATL 2020
53 Jose Urquidy RHP HOU 2019
54 Robert Puason SS OAK 2024
55 Yoshi Tsutsugo OF TB 2020
56 Heriberto Hernandez C TEX 2022
57 Kyle Lewis OF SEA 2019
58 Nico Hoerner SS CHC 2019
59 George Kirby RHP SEA 2021
60 Monte Harrison OF MIA 2020
61 Jordan Groshans 3B TOR 2022
62 Alek Thomas OF ARI 2021
63 Simeon Woods-Richardson RHP TOR 2021
64 Gilberto Jimenez OF BOS 2022
65 Brendan Rodgers 2B COL 2019
66 Erick Peña OF KC 2024
67 Austin Hays OF BAL 2018
68 Kevin Cron 1B ARI 2019
69 Greg Jones SS TB 2023
70 Riley Greene OF DET 2024
71 Nolan Gorman 3B STL 2022
72 Edward Cabrera RHP MIA 2020
73 Josiah Gray RHP LAD 2020
74 Heliot Ramos OF SF 2022
75 Sixto Sanchez RHP MIA 2020
76 JJ Bleday OF MIA 2022
77 Randy Arozarena OF TB 2019
78 Hedbert Perez OF MIL 2024
79 Jose Garcia SS CIN 2021
80 Nick Lodolo LHP CIN 2021
81 Josh Jung 3B TEX 2021
82 Kody Hoese 2B LAD 2021
83 Hunter Greene RHP CIN 2023
84 Triston Casas 3B BOS 2022
85 Luisangel Acuña SS TEX 2023
86 Maximo Acosta SS TEX 2024
87 Jaylin Davis OF SF 2019
88 Jorge Mateo SS OAK 2020
89 Ronny Mauricio SS NYM 2023
90 Michael Busch 3B LAD 2021
91 Orelvis Martinez 3B TOR 2023
92 Misael Urbina OF MIN 2023
93 Grayson Rodriguez RHP BAL 2022
94 Ian Anderson RHP ATL 2020
95 Ryan Mountcastle 1B BAL 2020
96 Joey Cantillo LHP SD 2021
97 Alexfri Planez OF CLE 2023
98 Joe Ryan RHP TB 2020
99 Bryce Ball 1B ATL 2022
100 Keithron Moss SS TEX 2023

Thanks for reading! Next hundred coming next week!

 
  1. TK says:
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    Taylor Trammell has dropped that far? Darn. Unless I’m blind (which is quite possible), I don’t see him in the top 100 at all.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, TK!

      Your eyes are all good!

      Well . . . I’m not at all qualified to make that diagnosis . . .

      but I can verify that Trammel is not in my top 100.

  2. Timber Maniac says:
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    How close is Tyler Stephenson, the Reds catcher? I don’t know how good he is defensively. He looks like a pretty good hitter. Though, I remember power being his thing back when he was drafted and it hasn’t really materialized. I’d never even heard of Jose Garcia. Guessing he’s defense first?

    Fantasy keeper question, as well. I’m keeping Mookie, Tatis, Devers, and Strasburg. My final 2 are between Mondesi, Eloy, and Snell. According to Yahoo ranks, Eloy should be the odd man out. But I really wanna keep him. So I guess the question comes down to how valuable Mondesi’s SB potential is vs. a Snell bounceback.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks for reading, Timber Maniac!

      Garcia made a leap with the bat late last year and had already been pretty good for being young in a pitching-heavy league. He is a plus defender, but he’s developing into a force on offense and might continue down that path.

      I’m not real big on Stephenson for exactly the reason you note here. While his receiving skills have come along nicely, his power has not. Could still pop and has definite value in two catcher leagues with minor league spots.

      With that last keeper spot, any chance of a trade?

      If not, I think it’s okay to toss Snell back in a league without many keepers, depending on the settings.

      For what it’s worth, I’d keep Snell and Mondesi.

      If it’s 5×5 roto, Mondesi is a must keep. But you’d have a better read on how the league would value the pieces than anyone. I think it’s best to trust your gut and make room for Eloy, and if Snell’s gotta go, so be it. Might be able to get him back.

    • Jolt In Flow says:
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      Itch, thanks for posting! This is just what I needed. Jasson Dominguez quick rise + future potential is reflected in this version of your earlier ranking, in my estimation.

      I wanted to elaborate on Timber’s question. I’d be tempted to toss (or package a trade with Strasberg) Strasberg back in. I think this past year will be incredibly tough for him to repeat. He seems to have an injury history. And although he’s an incredible pitcher, I think there’s too much uncertainty.

      Thoughts?

      Thanks.

  3. senormota says:
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    Itch, Love the List! Need some Minors Keeper help. Here’s my minors roster. Its a 16 team league with QS instead of wins, and SPs are very valuable. Anyone I should cut before the FYPD?

    C: OPEN
    CI: Luis Garcia, INF, WAS
    CI: OPEN
    MI: Nico Hoerner, CHC
    MI: OPEN
    OF: Brandon Marsh, LAA
    OF: Khalil Lee, KC
    OF: Yusniel Diaz, Bal
    UTIL: Brennen Davis, CHC
    UTIL: Leody Tavares, TEX
    P: MacKenzie Gore, SD
    P: Mitchell White, LAD
    P: Jorge Guzman, MIA
    P: JB Bukauskas, ARI
    P: Eli Morgan, CLE
    P: Thomas Szapusky, NYM
    P: OPEN

    I also have the 2nd pick in the FYPD and need to fill one of those spots. Was looking at Vaughn, then Adley. Whatcha think?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks for the kind words, senormota!!

      What’s the benefit of making a cut before the draft? Do you get a pick back?

      I think Vaughn’s fine at 1.2 In a 16-team, one-catcher league, I’m not that into Adley. I’d still take him somewhere but would have him behind Abrams, Dominguez, and Carroll for sure.

      If you get a pick back for the cut, I’d be looking at White, Guzman and maybe Bukauskas.

      • Senormota says:
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        Yep, I get another pick for every guy I don’t keep.

        Thanks for the advice!

  4. For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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    he mentioned him in the earlier list as being near 100 i think. that 30 team dive list has a link to the earlier top 150.

    • For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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      this was for the trammell guy.

      • For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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        gorman really moved down too. even since sept pretty sure.

  5. For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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    asked grey already, see what you think. non super deep short keeper questions

    1. 16 team roto. keep 4 per year at last year’s end of season ADP’s. rosters:
    1 of each hitting spot + a CI, MI, 4th OF, 3 utils, 5 SP, 5 RP, 1 P (max innings 1800, max starts 170)
    scoring: 5×5 stuff with OBP over AVG, slugging, OPS, total bases, hits, steals % for hitters, and holds, K/BB, K/9, QS, holds and net saves + holds.
    possible keepers:
    bregman (1)
    mookie (1, so can’t keep both of him and bregman)
    soto (2)
    gallo (7)
    hiura (28)
    laureano (14)
    otani (hitter, 11)
    mostsuckass (9)
    hampson (13)
    h.dozier (28)
    degrom (1)
    bieber (10)
    corbin (3)
    ed rod (10)
    gallen (28)

    2. same keeper settings, but NL only and only keep 3 and it’s 10 team h2h.
    rosters: 1 of each + a CI a MI, 4th OF, 1 util, 5 SP, 4 RP
    scoring: 5×5 except OBP over AVG, net steals over steals, total bases added for hitters, QS over wins, holds added for pitchers
    possible keepers:
    edman (25)
    freeman (2)
    harper (1)
    hoskins (3)
    stressbird (4)
    lux (25)
    conforto (7)
    mcneil (16)
    l.castillo (8)
    j.urias (15)
    lucchesi (11)

    3. 3. same exact settings as NL only, but AL only.
    options:
    antana (tons of positions, 25)
    gallo (5)
    vlad (3)
    k.davis (2, nope)
    mercado (25)
    altuve (1, last year i had the 1.2 and wanted judge, but went altuve when judge was gone)
    odor (6, probably nope)
    s.murphy (25)
    ed rod (7)
    yarbrough (15)
    minor (14)
    paxton (3, nope)
    pressly (14)

    leagues 2 and 3 are h2h not roto, with 35 min innings per week. so usually i’d have 1 total BN spot for hitters, the others for pitchers, ending up with about 8 SP (usually 1 streamer). also max DL’s in all these leagues. 1 NA in the AL/NL onlyies, 2 in the 16 team mixed.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hiya, Akron!

      1) Hiura, Bieber, Soto

      2) Lux, Urias, Edman

      3) Mercado, Vlad, Gallo

      • For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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        in #1 it’s keep 4. grey/DT threw mookie at break even value in there (makes sense as he’s one of the safest round 1 floors in the game), they went exactly the same on the other 3.

        2. this one grey/DT went the farthest from you, and way different than they usually go (i.e. pitchers), they went freeman (2, super safe floor a round later than he’d probably go in an actual draft post keepers), stressbird (4, safe ace in 4th round, some other owners would draft this level SP earlier) and l.castillo (11, here is where i thought they’d pick one of lux/edman/mcneil or even urias). before asking i thought it would’ve gone freeman, 1 of edman/mcneil/lux and stressbird. it’s very odd and i’m quite loath to go 2 SP out of 3 total keepers in any sized league. l.castillo in the 11th is of course good value, but it wouldn’t cost much more to guarantee i’d draft him back a round or a few earlier. harper i could likely get again in the 1st anyway (similar to hoskins in his round 3 or 4). my guess is mcneil is a boring floor guy (lower speed than his metrics indicate, always has been) that could be gotten by paying a few extra rounds (but maybe 5 or more), no huge HR upside, AVG/OBP high floor guy. edman at least is a floor guy across all categories (my guess is grey/DT might worry about playing time if he goes cold though). lux i’d have to think has the crazy upside and 25th rounder pays for itself (not only that but he’ll be quite a bit more expensive this year).

        3. AL only. everybody agrees on vlad (3). they both agree on antana due to the 25th round likely. mercado probably has more of a future though, we’ve seen antana not be much besides some speed for numerous years before last year. grey is quite worried about gallo’s wrist and is devaluing him everywhere (but i could probably draft him again slightly more expensive than 5th round too).

        • For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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          oh if this matters, we pick our draft slots from reverse standings, and i won last year. those with a 1st round keeper but not a 2nd draft latest in odd rounds (snake here), those with no 1st want earliest pick in odds (i mean, almost every time), and me here i’d get whatever pick slot is left, and that is almost always in the 4-7 range of odd rounds, usually exactly 5 or 6 (which is good, i like being in the middle, you can get hurt from positional runs least, for online you get the most information in between picks)

  6. Matty says:
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    I missed the news about Elijah Tatis when he first signed, but happened upon some of it more recently.
    He’s my new last round lottery ticket. Hopefully FTSr. isn’t doing his best Lavar Ball impression when he says that Elijah is the better son.

    • Matty says:
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      Forgot my question-
      It looks like there was some shifting around in the upper tiers since September, partly within the tiers, and a few guys climbing or falling from one tier to another (Robinson from 7 to 14, Julio Rodriguez from 10 to 6, Xavier Edwards from 14 to 41)- is this a function of moves by the big league club, something we saw in fall or winter ball, or something else?
      Thanks for all the insights.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Hi, Matty,

        Little of both.

        I was thinking of Edwards as a fast-mover with an invitation to play second or center in San Diego. In Tampa, he’s confusing amid all that depth. At least at the moment.

  7. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    kevin cron needs a shot,Great post here Itch

    • Eric the Waiter With Hands for Hands says:
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      yeah trade him to AL and watch him beat the hell out of whatever ford/bird/voit have ever done at say NYY or somebody else.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        seconded

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, AL!!

      DH coming to the NL in how many seasons . . .

      a career or nine are on the line here . . .

      • Eric the Waiter With Hands for Hands says:
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        just gotta hope he’s not another aj reed (clearly he’s done better and for longer than aj reed ever did but so far similar MLB career path)

  8. NUX says:
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    Straight fire, thx for this list man

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks Nux!!!!

  9. sal says:
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    what kind of stats do you project franco to put out in a full season

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      That’s a dangerous game, sal . . .

      You mean peak Franco?

      .350 with 30 homers and 10 steals?

  10. Jesus take the wheel says:
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    Points league – 11 teams; 10 keepers each; LF, CF and RF (as opposed to 3 OFers), 2 Util; 5 SP; 2 RP.
    Keeping:

    1. Trout – CF
    2. Story – SS
    3. Alonso – 1B
    4. Y. Alvarez – LF
    5. Stanton – Util
    6. J. Abreu – Util
    7. Vladito – 3B
    8. Strasburg – SP
    9. Severino -SP

    Deciding between Luzardo, Lux, and Gary Sanchez for my last keeper. Any help appreciated (and needed!)

    Thx.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Lux is probably my play here, but I don’t think you can go wrong.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        I might consider tossing Severino back . . .

        any chance of a consolidation trade?

  11. thatguy says:
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    That Pache rating seems very pessimistic. He should be a lot higher if only by virtue of the number of AB he is likely to get this year. Seems like you’re drinking the haterade

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, thatguy,

      Where would you put him?

      52nd seemed pretty aggressive to me for a speed guy who’s gone 15 for 34 on stolen base attempts over the past two seasons.

      Takes some faith to believe he’ll figure that out or hit for enough power to cover the loss of that category, and I was thinking 52 suggests he’s got a good chance of finding a path to one or the other.

      Manuel Margot was a playing time floor investment, too. So was Orlando Arcia. I’m sure there’s plenty who went the other way, but it’s not an easy road for him on a contender with two good centerfielders looked in.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        good god i had drafted BOTH of those in different 1st rounds/different years in one dynasty (arcia/margot). neither reside on my roster anymore, (arcia for a long time).

        • The Itch

          The Itch says:
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          Sorry to hear that, goodfold2.

          Weren’t many realists to ground the defense-inflated hype about those two.

          • goodfold2 says:
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            yeah the razzball prospectors (re: mostly you) have improved on ranking for fantasy-centricness likely from those days is one guess.

            • goodfold2 says:
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              i mean you since you are currently that guy, not that mike wasn’t doing that, specifically his most recent time here.

      • thatguy says:
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        Check out Acuna’s stats by level and compare with Pache. Not that dissimilar. Things like that SB rate happen when you are young and being challenged at every level. You have to do more work than just looking at the surface stats with players like that.

        • The Itch

          The Itch says:
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          I know these are humans—not stat lines—and as a coach I’ve seen kids make big leaps in short summers, but Pache’s best ever wRC+ of 134 would’ve been Acuña’s worst as a prospect.

          I have no idea why the two would be compared except that they play for Atlanta.

          It’s unfair to Pache to hold him up against Acuña as a measuring stick. I’ve seen Pache hit enough to know he’s not Acuña. 52nd is a very optimistic ranking.

  12. Joe Shmoe says:
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    No India?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I think we lost him in Brexit

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi again, Joe,

      I meant to copy and paste this in here from a previous article:

      Down:

      We begin with a presumptuous series of Reds whose outlook hangs in the balance with the shoulder of Eugenio Suarez. I’m going forward under the premise that he’ll be okay because of that time he broke his wrist and only came back stronger, but this is a throwing shoulder injury for a third baseman, so if he’s hurt, that opens a lane.

      3B Jonathan India | CIN
      Speaking of seasons without sun, the Reds have blocked Jonathan India nineteen times over this winter. Maybe he’s not the kind of special talent who forces the issue, but he just had a .414 on-base percentage in his first 34 AA games and had a realistic shot at MLB playing time in 2020 before all the signings. One thing you never expect when taking a top five pick out of college atop your own supp draft is that you’ll be waiting a half decade to see him on the field. Tough spot here. Maybe a cloud will shift someday, but he’s one of the toughest holds in dynasty right now. Can’t drop him. Hard to trade him. The Reds are clearly willing to make moves, but they’ve got a lot to make, and his 2020 value disappeared before it had a chance to materialize.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    You 100% made up the name Keithron

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      If that’s all I’m remembered for in the end, I’ll take it!!

    • Matty says:
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      I read KeithTron.
      Either way, makes me think of the character in Righteous Gemstones

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Had the exact same thought reading Grey’s comment.

        Good stuff!!

  14. PhilOssie says:
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    Great work as always Itch.

    I snagged Matos in my draft this year much to the chagrin of the guy picking behind me who’s the best prospector in my dynasty league. Tip o the hat to ya on that one.

    Wondering what made you drop Wong from top 50 to out of the top 100.

    Also, how do you feel about a trade of Tyler Stephenson for Trevor Rogers and a late round minor league pick.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Phil!!!

      Matos!!!!! Love hearing you got him!

      Wong was a case of me being wildly above the chamber on him, so I felt I could back off and still ensure anyone who read me and could use him would get him.

      The trade has juiced his value some, so there’some optical illusion to him “falling” like this, but really I just worried I was costing readers profit by having him so high when they could get him a bit later.

      I like that trade if you don’t need a middling-upside catcher who’s not a starter yet.

      Which . . .

      A 6’6″ Marlins lefty first round pick coming into his own after having dominant stretch in 2019 . . . I’m in, and I always like collecting picks.

  15. Jon Gray’s Broken Toe says:
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    As always I love the common sense approach to Razzball rankings – this is a great list. Most of these guy pass the sniff test and are in the right vicinity.

    Notwithstanding, I think there is a trio of 6’6” pitchers from the 2018 draft class that are going to burn a hole through this list … between Daniel Lynch, Grayson Rodriguez, or Logan Gilbert. Individually none of them look like aces, but they all have very good control for 6’6” and are one adjustment away from breaking out. As a group one of them has very good odds to become an ace in short order.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I do think I’ll move Gilbert up on my first update. Just got squeezed off here as I tried to synthesize a lot of factors, but I do really like him, and the market is climbing.

      I’m not quite as wild about Lynch and Rodriguez, but they’re coming up right around the corner.

  16. Alan says:
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    Thanks for the list. Is there a reason that Logan Gilbert was #4 on your Mariners list, but dropped from the top 100?

    • The Harrow says:
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      and the SEA list wasn’t that long ago, unlike say the top 150.

  17. Terrytown says:
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    Itch I see you’re really down on Gorman. Think he bounces back or is his K rate going to continue to haunt him?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, Terrytown,

      I think the K’s will wane a little. He’s really far ahead on the age-to-level math. It might take some time, and that’s always the toughest factor to measure. If you’re competing now, Gorman’s probably in the definite-flip camp, so his value is hurt a bit by that. He might’ve been on a level where contenders were more or less holding him heading into last year.

  18. HamPorter says:
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    Good Stuff Itch!

    I’m in a deep AL-only league that carries 10 minor league spots. I traded away some solid guys last year for key pieces for a championship and stocked up on players in last years draft. I have 8 keepers: Rutschman, Witt Jr., Whitley, Noelvi Marte, Greg Jones, Josh Jung, Riley Greene, and Logan Gilbert. At the auction in March, we can draft anyone. With the AL having 5 of the first 6 picks where do Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin stack up with Xavier Edwards, Aaron Bracho, Jeter Downs, Erick Pena, and Gilberto Jimenez? Also, all of these available options are better than Leody Taveras correct? I have had him for three years and I’m ready to move on.

    Thanks for all of the articles this past year!

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
      (link)

      Thanks, HamPorter!!

      And double thanks for your thanking me for all the articles!! : )

      They’re all above Leody for me. In a deep league like that, proximity and floor complicate everything, but I prefer all the guys you listed and think you can trade them for more than you could get for Leody as well.

      I think Tork would be atop that list in this format for me, largely because he’s headed to the land of designated hitting and seems like a near lock to bring you MLB return at a not-great position in the AL right now with 1B.

      Martin’s a lot tougher in part because he’s much more appealing to NL teams. If he’s there for Miami at 3, I think they’d enjoy that. So he might have to go top 2 or you just lost a year and a chance at one of these rising stocks? Or maybe I’m not hip to the set up?

      Could see him right in step with these guys or just a touch above, but this feels like the right range. If you get nothing if Miami drafts him, I think I’d prefer the bird in the hand.

      • HamPorter says:
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        Itch,

        Thanks, that’s what I was thinking too, especially with the lack of prospect depth at first base in the AL. The more I look into, I’m really turning into a big fan of Bracho. I didn’t realize that he was a switch hitter. Once again, thanks for all of the hard work!

  19. BC says:
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    Itch

    Out of the 8-9 top 100 lists I’ve read so far this is the most in my humble opinion that hits it out of the park. Only question I have and it’s more of why (he’s on everyone’s list) but Jassons ranking at such a young age and size wise he’s only 5-10 at best and 190 and from what I’ve seen and read seems close to filled out. What is it about this kid that has you putting him so high, Vladitio at 17 wasn’t this high nor was Wanders. Curious as to what it is, otherwise truly a great list and appreciate it.

    Yours truly
    BC

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
      (link)

      Thank you thank you, BC!!!

      I’m thrilled to hear the work stands out to you! Lotta good lists out there.

      I think one of the main thing with Dominguez is that rankers were wrong on Vlad and Wander.

      Well . . . maybe “wrong” doesn’t tell the full story . . .

      but they were certainly too conservative to ensure their readers had a chance to get these players.

      I agree on the build. That concerns me a little and was honestly the final straw that broke me Abrams’ way on the FYPD list. Sure he looks good hitting among teenagers: he’s a fully developed adult man, physically speaking.

      We don’t get many D1 running back types in baseball, so I’m more eager to see how his extreme athleticism plays than I am worried it will cause flexibility, health, contact issues.

      One thing to keep in mind, he signed for 5+ million but would’ve signed for a lot, lot more than that in an uncapped system. Might’ve been the highest paid international signing ever if that was possible. Feels like he’s got much more hype than Kevin Maitan.

      The videos of him hitting are NSFW . . .

  20. icefire1 says:
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    Auction Keeper Points League

    Keep $3 Kopech or $10 Lux?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Can see why it’s tight with the points aspect, and if we knew Kopech would be full go, there’d be an interesting league-settings discussion, but as it I think it’s Lux.

      Might be able to just flip him for a 30-start-ready arm if that’s what you’d prefer.

  21. Need more bangers says:
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    Thanks for the list.

    I still can’t shake when you wrote (in an older post)about Roberts steamer proj and saying he’s a 2nd rounder masquerading as an 8th.

    What is the earliest you’d take him in a redraft?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      You’re more than welcome, Need more bangers!

      And thanks for remembering the line!!!

      He’s going 82.43 in NFBC drafts since Jan 7 (five days after the extension).

      That puts him between Gallo (82.2) and Soler (87.18) among outfielders.

      I’d try to move a bit before that, maybe round 5 in a 15-teamer.

      Now as to the earliest . . . man . . . kinda depends on the build because if I’d gone pitching heavy and needed steal-upside come round 4, I’d have no problem taking him then.

  22. hitzone says:
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    16 team dynasty pts
    -.25AB/K, 3.5/hr/sb, 1 pt for BB/H/RBI/R

    Trade my Olson and one of Honeywell/Michael Busch/Braden schewmaker for

    1)Austin riley/Pearson
    2) Evan white/Pearson

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, hitzone,

      I’m thinking this trade is all about Pearson?

      Might be a real beast in points, for sure.

      I’d pick Shewmake of the guys to kick in and prefer White to Riley by quite a bit, but I don’t think I’d do these trades. Olson might have another level in 2020, just following his trajectory to this point.

      You know your league tho–just wondering if you can get Pearson without losing Olson.

      Maybe offer Honey and Shoe? Maybe a future pick?

  23. Swill says:
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    Thanks for the list and your work!

    Curious about Oneil Cruz. Seems really high. I own him in my league. What do you see from him that stands out to be ranked that high?

    • The Harrow says:
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      unless i’m misremembering, something along the lines of nobody hits the ball harder than that guy. obviously this isn’t the only thing he said about him, even if what i just said is accurate.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Swill!!!

      I’ll grab a graph from my Pirates preview here: https://razzball.com/top-2020-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

      1. SS Oneil Cruz | 21 | AA | Early 2021

      Cruz is probably my favorite player in the minors. Dude is a different species. An evolutionary step forward. If you buy in now, you can laugh at people as you travel toward the bank. All the way to the bank, as they say. I hope it’s close by. And that you stay hydrated. Not sure how long humans can healthfully laugh. Let’s find out.

      • The Harrow says:
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        i can probably be forgiven by remembering the MUCH easier to remember earlier blurb. however, i may have been misremembering it with somebody else, HOWEVER even if that IS true, i knew (knew is a strong word here as i did not check this earlier) it was close. there’s probably like a 5% chance i just got lucky. i KNOW for SURE i obtained this dude last year where ever possible though.

  24. Swfcdan says:
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    Great prospecting work, miss my boy Ralphie but you are certainly scratching that missing itch mighty well.

    Got my prospect draft starting, well, tommorow! Got 1.9 and I’m realisticlaly looking at Bishop, Pena or Puason. I know your rank Puason highest and don’t even rank Bishop, but in an OBP league like mine would that change things? I’m tempted to target the huge upside though in Puason (prefer him to Pena mainly for org development) anyway, which way would you call it?

    Oddly Fangraphs ranks neither of these guys on their top 100, I’m sure P&P will be in their ‘picks to click for 2021’ section, but having no Bishop there does seem odd so seems like they’re sour on him also.

    While im here, projecting my 2nd round pick, am expecting one of : Daniel Lynch, Josh Lowe, N Lodolo, Gregg Jones, Josh Jung. Would mighty appreciate a quick ranking there also, superhero. Thanks!

    • Swfcdan says:
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      And just dealt Manaea (who I’m not keeping) and Noelvi Marte for Oneil Cruz, who I know you’re high on. Did the boy done good there?

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Thanks, Swfcdan!

        Sorry I didn’t get this quicker!!

        I see now it was time-sensitive!! Sorry about that. Who’d you take?

        Depends a little on build with that Round 2 pick. I like Lodolo and Jones a lot and would probably choose between those two.

        I like Manaea a lot, but if you weren’t keeping him, that seems fine.

  25. James says:
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    I’m in a 12-team H2H keep-forever league.

    The categories are: R H HR RBI BB K SB TB AVG OPS and IP W QS K/9 K/BB ERA WHIP HRA NetSV+HLD.

    I’m a rebuilding team. I’ve received a trade offer where I trade Kelenic and a 5th+6th round pick in the FYPD for Kepler/Gallen and the #8+#11 picks in the FYPD.
    I also own the #3/#4 and #7 picks in the FYPD.

    Adding Kepler/Gallen won’t push me to be a competitor but they will help. Which side would you choose–Kelenic or Kep/Gal and the picks? Selling low on Kelenic?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, James,

      12 is right at the border where I’d do that. In 15, I’m taking Kepler and Gallen for sure, but not knowing the contours of how your 12 plays, I’m not sure how far above replacement level either guy is.

      Given that you’re rebuilding, I might counter without the picks on there.

  26. Ryan says:
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    So I’m currently drafting next for my rookie/fa draft in my 14 team h2h dynasty league. This is the 5th year of this league. I’m having a hard time deciding which prospect to draft next. The draft so far has gone: Vaughn, Rutschman, jasson dominguez, adbrams, witt jr and bleday. Who do you suggest I should take next? I have my eye on Riley Greene or Skubal. Now I marte is another guy I’m looking at. Just not sure if there is someone else I should look to see that is available.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, Ryan,

      Who’d you take!?

      I’d be happy to have Skubal or Greene there but would pick Tarik myself and Noelvi over Greene, too.

      • Ryan says:
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        I ended up with jeter downs. Did I pick wrong lol?

  27. Harley Earl says:
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    No Jose Garcia? No Robert Puason? No Bayron Lora? Come on Itch, I expect better from you!

    Haha! Seriously, Nice list my friend. You do great work! Love, love, love reading your stuff.

    SIDENOTE: I do think Julio Rodriguez should be ahead of Abrams at #5, and I think one could argue Rodriguez should be ahead of Lux and Adell. I know I wouldnt trade him for either of those three. But Robert and Franco are in the same class as he if not better.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, Harley!

      I went back and forth a lot on Julio and can definitely see the case.

      He’ll have to mash soooooo much to be better than those guys without help from the SB category.

  28. Grant says:
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    Hi, I see you have Spencer Howard ranked 10 spots above Luis Patino and I realize that is probably not a big difference in terms of your values. Do you see Patini having more upside than Howard, but also more risk. Or is Howard just as strong ceiling wise in your opinion. Thanks

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hi, Grant,

      Good question. I do think their ceilings are similar.

  29. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Great post Itch! Which 2021 eta guys could you see hitting themselves into a late summer debut?

    Also, for Dylan Carlson, what do you see as his realistic upside for the first couple years? Is he a “professional hitter type prospect who doesn’t excel in any one area like a Senzel, or could he make an immediate impact?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Duda!

      Wander and Julio jump out as those types. Same with Oneil Cruz, Trevor Larnach and Jeter Downs.

      I think people have undersold Carlson’s topside a little because he’s always been young for the level. Kind of a weird case where people say the clay is dry so don’t dream, but I’m a dreamer and think baseball is more than muscles and clay.

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