This week is a big shuffle-up now that we have more data to go. Injuries are being factored in, players have been pushed down, hot starts are being factored in, and the cream is rising to the top. Of some of that cream, is a couple of Tommys that are surpassing expectations… Holy Schnikes!

Tommy Edman – I’ve been wanting to talk about him for a while now, but wanted to wait until some more data on his batted balls comes in—now we have a bigger sample to look at (that’s what she said!). Edman is hitting the ball well to all fields and has improved his average exit velocity to a new career-high of 89.0 whereas his previous high was 87.5… the skinny boy is growing into his man muscles!

The max velo for Edman is a bit of a mirage because it’s essentially the same as last year, there are just several players underperforming; but, it IS respectable and nice to see the gains he made last year are holding. His plate discipline also passes the eye test and a large part of his success is tied to him identifying and crushing offspeed pitches. The one area of concern (not pictured) is his GB% rate is still over 50%. But, with that sprint speed, he should still get on base at a good clip.

Tommy Pham – The other Tommy. We assumed he was CUTE without the E, cut from the team (like his strip club knife fight) but he got a new lease on life when he was signed by the Reds. Probably a top 5 place for him to land with that park and division even considering the fire sale. Since there is no longer deep talent on the team, he has consistently been hitting in the meat of the lineup. And though he started slow, his under the hood numbers looked like he was going to break out of his slump like a fat guy in a little suit.

Pham’s average exit velo is currently the best of his career, as is his hard-hit rate. Currently sitting at 55.3% Pham trails only players named Judge, Stanton, and Yordan. That’ll play. Most of his power is coming off sitting on fastballs with room to grow and a sparkling 24.7% line drive rate. The one area of concern, most of his whiffs are coming off of breaking balls, so we’ll see how the league adjusts but a career-high walk rate for a guy that’s always had a good walk rate is a great thing to see paired with a .295 xBA.

Taylor Ward – What can I say that I haven’t already? We are watching a real breakout in action. Over the last couple of weeks, Taylor Ward leads the league in nearly every hitting metric: AVG, OBP, SLG, ISO, all of it. That’s the prime rib of breakouts right there. Sure, you could get a good look at a T-bone steak by sticking your head up a bull’s [statcast], but wouldn’t you rather take [Coolwhip]’s word for it?

How about a spray chart? Most of Ward’s power is going to dead center while using the whole field… that’s how you know he’s locked in. Also, he’s maintaining a crisp 25.4% line drive rate paired with a 15.5% barrel rate. He is also posting positive run values on every pitch type. This is a top 20 outfielder, full stop.

Tyler O’Neill – On the other end of the spectrum, O’Neill is not hitting like a top 20 outfielder. His hard-hit rate, SLG (xSLG), and xBA all are looking very pedestrian so far and haven’t shown much improvement yet. The plus side is walk rate and K rate has improved compared to last year along with a barrel rate still north of 10%. These seem to suggest he can come out of it though I think the dead balls are certainly working against his current batted ball profile. “Helen, we’re both in sales…”

Christian Yelich – I am regretting not having at least 1 share of Yelich this year. I thought about it several times but usually passed for pitching in that round. He was definitely a “bargain” this year and is returning solid value. We might never see 40/30 Yelich again but a 30/20+ Yelich could be in the cards. He’s currently in the top 10% of the league in most batted ball metrics and an above-average walk rate paired with GB% back down under 50. Tommy likey.

Bryce Harper – He jumped up quite a bit despite playing with one wing… how long does this last? who knows. But we know what he CAN do and seems to still be doing it to the tune of top 5% in all major metrics with 9 HR and 6 SB… so, party on.

The Board

Rank Name Team POS CWT CW$
1 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 1 9.11
2 Aaron Judge NYY OF 1 8.93
3 Juan Soto WSH OF 1 8.88
4 Bryce Harper PHI OF 1 8.39
5 Luis Robert CHW OF 1 8.27
6 Mike Trout LAA OF 1 8.12
7 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF 1 7.84
8 Mookie Betts LAD 2B/OF 1 7.50
9 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 1 6.88
10 Byron Buxton MIN OF 1 6.59
11 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 1 5.67
12 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 1 5.29
13 George Springer TOR OF 1 5.24
14 Taylor Ward LAA OF 2 4.45
15 Nick Castellanos PHI OF 2 4.27
16 Seiya Suzuki CHC OF 2 4.22
17 Starling Marte NYM OF 2 4.14
18 Tommy Edman STL 2B/OF 2 4.07
19 Daulton Varsho ARI C/OF 2 4.06
20 Whit Merrifield KC 2B/OF 2 3.99
21 Randy Arozarena TB OF 2 3.93
22 Kyle Schwarber PHI 1B/OF 2 3.86
23 J.D. Martinez BOS OF 2 3.82
24 Christian Yelich MIL OF 2 3.77
25 Jared Walsh LAA 1B/OF 2 3.73
26 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 2 3.70
27 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 3 3.49
28 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 3 3.47
29 Adolis Garcia TEX OF 3 3.45
30 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR 1B/OF 3 3.41
31 Brandon Lowe TB 2B/OF 3 3.23
32 Tommy Pham CIN OF 3 3.23
33 Hunter Renfroe MIL OF 3 3.12
34 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B/OF 3 3.11
35 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 3 3.10
36 Josh Bell WSH 1B/OF 3 3.03
37 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF 3 2.95
38 Franmil Reyes CLE OF 3 2.82
39 Kris Bryant COL 1B/3B/OF 3 2.60
40 Eloy Jimenez CHW OF 3 2.54
41 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 4 2.42
42 Randal Grichuk COL OF 4 2.35
43 Ketel Marte ARI 2B/OF 4 2.30
44 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 4 2.26
45 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 4 2.01
46 Max Kepler MIN OF 4 2.00
47 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 4 1.89
48 Jorge Soler MIA OF 4 1.85
49 Ian Happ CHC OF 4 1.82
50 Joey Gallo NYY OF 4 1.50
51 Myles Straw CLE OF 4 1.48
52 Austin Meadows DET OF 4 1.38
53 Tyler Naquin CIN OF 4 1.37
54 Austin Hays BAL OF 4 1.26
55 Trent Grisham SD OF 4 1.20
56 Jesse Winker SEA OF 4 1.11
57 Avisail Garcia MIA OF 4 1.08
58 Anthony Santander BAL OF 4 1.04
59 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 4 1.01
60 Michael Brantley HOU OF 4 1.01
61 AJ Pollock CHW OF 5 1.00
62 Harrison Bader STL OF 5 0.94
63 Andrew Benintendi KC OF 5 0.82
64 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 5 0.81
65 Andrew Vaughn CHW 1B/OF 5 0.76
66 Andrew McCutchen MIL OF 5 0.66
67 Jo Adell LAA OF 5 0.56
68 Amed Rosario CLE SS/OF 5 0.53
69 Chris Taylor LAD 2B/SS/3B/OF 5 0.52
70 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 5 0.48
71 Manuel Margot TB OF 5 0.48
72 Connor Joe COL 1B/OF 5 0.39
73 Dylan Carlson STL OF 5 0.31
74 Joc Pederson SF OF 5 0.27
75 Wil Myers SD OF 5 0.15
76 Josh Naylor CLE 1B/OF 5 0.15
77 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 5 0.05
78 Enrique Hernandez BOS 2B/OF 5 -0.09
79 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 5 -0.09
80 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS/OF 5 -0.18
81 Patrick Wisdom CHC 1B/3B/OF 5 -0.36
82 Robbie Grossman DET OF 5 -0.37
83 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B/OF 5 -0.44
84 Raimel Tapia TOR OF 5 -0.47
85 Mark Canha NYM OF 5 -0.50
86 Gavin Lux LAD 2B/SS/OF 5 -0.50
87 Steven Kwan CLE OF 5 -0.53
88 Adam Frazier SEA 2B/OF 5 -0.58
89 Adam Duvall ATL OF 5 -0.64
90 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 5 -0.80
91 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B/OF 5 -0.90
92 Hunter Dozier KC 1B/3B/OF 5 -1.01
93 Josh Lowe TB OF 5 -1.07
94 Tony Kemp OAK 2B/OF 5 -1.13
95 Luis Arraez MIN 2B/3B/OF 5 -1.16
96 David Peralta ARI OF 5 -1.16
97 Seth Brown OAK 1B/OF 5 -1.18
98 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 5 -1.19
99 Akil Baddoo DET OF 5 -1.22
100 Michael A. Taylor KC OF 5 -1.24

As always, the individual ranks (and to a degree the dollars) don’t really matter, what’s important are the tiers, and more important than that now—your roster construction. Any outfielder not listed, consider them tier 5.

If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
23 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Doug
Doug
24 days ago

O’Neill still ranked so high is…puzzling. Then you have a guy like Yasztremski at 90 and his statcast data (along with actual fantasy contributing stats) is better than half the guys in the top 50.

TIM CHILDS
TIM CHILDS
1 month ago

I need to decide on a keeper for a while. Pham, Naquin or Naylor.

TIM CHILDS
TIM CHILDS
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 month ago

Thanks. He would you keep for the next few weeks?

TIM CHILDS
TIM CHILDS
Reply to  TIM CHILDS
1 month ago

I shouldn’t have used the word keeper. Sorry. I was more or less looking over the next few weeks or so.

Watson
Watson
1 month ago

Looks like Kyle Lewis is ready to return on Monday. Numbers look good in his rehab, curious to see where he settles in on your next round.

Watson
Watson
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 month ago

Sweet, thanks for the thoughts and great work as always!

Parks
Parks
1 month ago

Does Yepez not make the list or is that position eligibility related? He is OF in Yahoo

Grey
Admin
1 month ago

O’Neill bums me out so much

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

You have O’Neil at top of Tier 3? The EYE Test says he’s Tier 5. Why isn’t Bellinger (2021)a valid comparison?

Five-on-One
Five-on-One
1 month ago

While I appreciate your faith (as evidenced by your rankings) in Arozarena, O’Neill and Gurriel, my offense is struggling mightily with those three as the core of my OF (12-team 5×5 league). Hold tight, or look to sell any of them for whatever I can get?

icefire1
icefire1
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 month ago

Tyler O’Neill sucks. Period.

omar
omar
1 month ago

10 team OPS Weekly H2H:
A: Rodon, Alcantara, Taillon, Yepez
B: Wheeler, Kopech, Sandoval, Tyler Oneill

omar
omar
Reply to  Coolwhip
1 month ago

I’m currently B. I’m punting saves and looking to consolidate high-end talent (staff) and shrink number of bench bats.

c – Rutschman
1b – Bell
2b – Ketel
ss – Bichette
3b – JoRam
if – Merrifield
of – Soto, Robert, Suzuki, J-Rod
**IL – Tatis, Eloy
util/bench – Muncy, Tellez, O’Neill, Chris Taylor

Staff: Cole, McClanahan, Wheeler, Webb, Kopech, Cobb, Sandoval, Javier, Whitlock, Kirby

*In the deal, Taillon and Yepez are best available on the wire, included as fallback options for context. I’m actually thinking about switching Bell for O’Neill so the trade partner doesn’t think I’m trying to fleece with how bad TON is right now. I’ll just bench him until he comes around or gets demoted. My biggest concern would be whether Tellez/Muncy would be serviceable enough for 1B going forward. I have a glut of OF, especially with Eloy and Tatis on the horizon. I also have a ton of position flexibility. Currently in 1st, so I can coast on a strained roster for a few weeks, and my opponents coming up are at the bottom of the standings. Really want Rodon, and like the steadiness Sandy brings. Love Kopech’s stuff, but don’t trust him at all (yet). Wheeler is fine, but I like Rodon a ton more.

The deal would essentially be Wheeler, Kopech, Sandoval and Bell for Rodon and Sandy, and in all honesty, I’d probably pick up high end set up men for ratio boosting and to vulture a W or two here and there (or stash Grayson – just dropped Meyer after today’s blowup) or just stream. I know it’s giving up a lot, but I’m good with it. Thoughts?