Can put this Tony Gonsolin sleeper in the same bucket as my Rowdy Tellez sleeper. The numbers were just too good to not write it. Tony Gonsolin also has the feel to me like a “smart” person’s sleeper, which means he’s not a sleeper if you’re in a league with a “smart” person. Those quotes are short for “people who think they’re smart and drive the price of a guy up to the point where they are no longer sleepers or at all reasonably priced.” You can see why I shortened it with quotes. There’s no explanation for why I spelled it out anyway. In some friendly, office leagues, where Karen pops are head in and is like, “Hey, what are you guys doing? A fantasy sports draft? Fun!” then she goes directly to HR to get you all busted — Don’t draft on company time; Karens says. But in those leagues, no one’s drafting Tony Gonsolin, so he will be a sleeper in those leagues. Also, he feels like the kind of guy that ESPN barely ranks, then next year they talk about how great he is, approximately 18 months after us. I can understand the trepidation with drafting Gonsolin. Is he in the rotation? I don’t know. That’s a bit of a bummer and why he might be slightly overrated in “smart” leagues and not talked about at all at ESPN. They (ESPN) are not not talking about him because they’re smart enough to know Gonsolin won’t get the innings. No, they’re not not talking about him because they think their audience won’t know him, and they’re 100% geared towards telling people what they know already. Quadruple negative equals a positive there. Again, the numbers were too good; Gonsolin needed a sleeper post for those of you in not “smart” leagues, which are the real smart leagues. This is not a confusing post at all! So, what can we expect from Tony Gonsolin for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Tony Gonsolin sleeper, just wanted to announce all my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now. So II, the Tony Gonsolin sleeper:

There’s not too many pitchers who are in the top 20 for Swinging Strike rate; top 15 for First Strike Rate; top 30 fewest for Contact rate, and the top eight for Swing rate. There’s deGrom, Maeda, Plesac and one more guy. I’ll let Dolly Parton tell you who:  Gonsolin, Gonsolin, Gonsolin, Gonnnnnnnsolin. I’m begging of you please don’t take my man before I get to draft him. Gonsolin, Gonsolin, Gonsolin, Gonnnnnnnsolin. Please don’t take him just because you can, and you read this post and want to jump the gun on me. Tony Gonsolin has some kind of special numbers when it comes to contact rates. Ace-like. Just the Swinging Strike rate (14%) and the Swing rate (50.9) alone. To put that to you in real world terms, he’s around the strike zone, and hitters are ready to get on him, until the ball falls out of the zone and they miss.

Tony Gonsolin operates with mostly a four-seamer (47.5% of the time), and it produced a .191 BA and .270 SLG. He had the fifth best fastball in the majors but, wait, there’s more! His split finger that he threw 29.8% of the time produced a 42.2% Whiff Rate. But if you like that, wait until you hear this! His slider was thrown 16.7% of the time, produced a .156 BA and .219 SLG, and 47.1% Whiff Rate. On Statcast, they compare him to Zach Plesac, and, yeah, that makes sense, except at no point did Gonsolin leave the team’s quarantine to attend a pizza party at Shakey’s. Gonsolin is an ace, just waiting for a rotation spot. Which brings us to the problem going into this post and where we’re still at. Dodgers have a solid five in front of him. Thankfully, no pitchers stay healthy, and, in a year after no pitchers threw more than a few dozen innings, it’s going to be even more pronounced. It’s mostly pronounced: Cur-sh-aw-wil-bray-ache-daun. Or Julio Urias and Dustin May, while lovely, will wrestle with innings limits. Finally, is David Price even pitching this year? Gonsolin may not be penciled in for a rotation spot, but he should still see ~125 IP, and, with his stuff, it can make him a top 40 starter. For 2021, I’ll give Tony Gonsolin projections of 8-3/2.97/1.02/117 in 121 IP with a chance for way more.

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    Great fantasy sleeper on Gonsolin!

    a. Love me Gonsolin and as you say, nobody wants him. In roto mocks I’m doing in CBS and fantasypro, he is going undrafted by 11 bots and myself too. If I draft him, his ADP will go up and we don’t want that. Ervin Santana is being drafted by 11 bots in later leagues but not good ol’ Tony! I’d risk a 15th-round-ish pick on him in early drafts in 12-team razzball leagues with the hopes that he gets to much more (as you say) or even the 125 IP and then patch other stuff together to get to the IP limit.

    b. Interesting question I saw on my FB feed for Fantasy league commissioners. How does one adjust the GP played per position requirements for 2020 games played ahead of the 2021 season? Like if a guy played 5 games at a position in 2020, that’s like 20 in 2019 right? Anyway, things to make you go hmm and definitely needs to be answered by the Rudy’s of this world for sure (on how to adjust the default, not on whether or not 5 games (2020)=20 games (2019)!!).

    c. MLB quote of the day for January 11, 2021

    1. Lloyd McClendon, born January 11, 1959

    ‘The only thing I asked was that the playing field be even. Judge me on who I am and what I have to say. I never doubted that if all those things were even, I’d come out on top.’

    Lloyd McClendon in Sports Illustrated (Stephen Cannella, 11/30/2000, ‘Little League Legend Grows Up The Pirates’ Lloyd McClendon is the youngest in a new generation of managers’, Source)

    2. Rey Ordonez, born January 11, 1971

    ‘The mark of any artist is to take a situation and do something with it that others don’t normally do,’ says former Mets GM Joe McIlvaine. ‘If you watched Ordonez on a daily basis, pretty near every game you saw him do something that you don’t see others do.’

    1998 Topps Baseball Card (Topps Inc., 1998, Number 103)

    3. Monte Irvin, died January 11, 2016

    ‘Look at the contrast in salaries between today and my day. I wish my mama had better timing.’

    Monte Irvin

    4. Orville Jorgens, died January 11, 1992

    ‘He (Orville Jorgens) has a remarkable motion for a right-hander – almost as deadly as the southpaw motion which Sherry Smith, of the Dodgers, used and with which he nipped so many off the base.’

    Sportswriter Daniel M. Daniel in Baseball Magazine (October 1937)

    5. Jophery Brown, died January 11, 2014

    ‘The Taurus Lifetime Achievement Award was awarded to Jophery Brown, a legendary stunt man whose career has spanned over 30 years and includes stunts in over 400 films and television shows. Jophery got into the stunt business after a torn rotary cup ended his career as a major league pitcher for the Chicago Cubs. His natural athleticism helped him rise in the industry as one of the first African-American stunt men in Hollywood. In addition to serving as stunt coordinator for legendary films such as Scarface and Action Jackson, he has performed memorable stunts like driving a bus over a gap in the freeway in Speed and crashing cars in the television show A-Team. His work navigating a big rig through a high speed chase in Bad Boys II even garnered him a Taurus Award in 2004 for Best Work with a Vehicle. In his long career, Jophery has doubled Morgan Freeman, James Earl Jones, Denzel Washington, Bill Cosby, and Sidney Poiter.’

    IMDB Biography (Jophery C. Brown, 1990-2014, Source)

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      Loving these quotes, Ante. Hope all is well. God Bless

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        MP!!!

        Thank you much. We are all good. Take care too.

        Cheers,
        Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. Don’t you dare draft him!

      B. I believe NFBC is doing 7 games, and they usually do 20 games at a position — I doubt ESPN or CBS changes for this year because they put no money into their product — Yahoo is always 5 games started, so I think they’re fine

      3. Amen, Monte!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        Grey!!!

        a. Amen, Monte, indeed! His momma was upset with the quote, but hey, that’s the way love is!

        b. Not drafting him, just observing. Trying to boost ADP of Votto and Senzel so autobot will draft them in their place. A lot of guys not being drafted – bats and pitchers. Bots don’t like Nola for some reason, curious. I consistently wait for round 20 to pick up Nola versus 11 bots. Isn’t that criminal?

        c. Thought you’d get a chuckle out of Jophery C. Brown being the double for Bill Cosby (Hey, Hey, Hey!) but I digress!

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I was actually googling Jophery, I didn’t remember his name but he does look super familiar

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            And looking up what happened to Lloyd McClendon, he can’t catch a break

            • Ante GALIC says:
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              Grey!!!

              a. McClendon foiled by the MAN yet again!

              b. Had no clue who good ol’ Jophery was so thank you for recruiting me to do the quotes that I signed up for! He just Tom Sawyered me into a role by Huckleberry Finn! Damn you, Grey! [Shakes fist at the sky.] Just kidding, mensch! You had me at hello.

              c. Gotta look up Jophery now and see if I can catch him versus the stunt double.

              Cheers,
              Ante

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                A. Yeah, just read his Wiki page and it goes like this: Manager for Tigers for six days then AJ hinch took over and fired Lloyd

                B/C Haha, you’re the one that found him!

  2. Jose says:
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    Hi Grey, What do you think of Schwarber signing with the Nats? He seems highly motivated, he was super happy to be reunited with his former coach, now manager D. Martinez. What kind of projection do you have for him this year? I just picked him up. Thanks,

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My rankings start next week, or they’re on Patreon now

      • Jose says:
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        Come on Rey, give me a hint of what to expect, PLEASE.

        • Dave D says:
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          Dont be a cheapskate, Jose. Just pony up already.

      • Charlie says:
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        Grey,

        Absolutely love your content and have no problem ponying up every single year. WIth that said, what is the difference between the MLB Roto Deluxe for $35 through the Razzball website vs your content on Patreon? Is it the same but just gets posted to Patreon first, or is there additional fantasy baseball content on Patreon?

        Thanks and keep up the great job!!

  3. Jimmy says:
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    Is J.T Brunaker worth a sleeper post? Do you think J.T. Brubaker has more value in a 20 team keeper league 5×5 than Ross Stripling? Great stuff as always! I

    • Jimmy says:
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      Out of these 3 Stripling-Brubaker or Trevor Rogers… thanks! 20 team 5×5 keeper…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Prolly Rogers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s not in the Pirates rotation as of right now

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    good call, def on the list! great guy to stash on reserve, knowing he’ll be starting sooner or later.

    In a keep-5 OBP OPS (QS W) league, who is your final keeper between $8 Yordan, $6 Voit, $5 Bohm, $5 Sixto, $5 Ian Anderson, and $15 Glasnow? Leaning towards a bat.

    Other 4 keepers are easy picks – Story ($16), Bellinger ($14), Soto ($11), and Robert ($8 – though he’s an OBP suck).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Yordan or Voit, prolly Yordan

  5. Roberts showed some confidence in Gonso and I like him to shine in ’21. Don’t think Price will pitch well, if he does. Clean delivery with easy mechanics point to Tony staying healthy. DD can’t claim this one, hahaha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yeah, I kinda think Price is out this year, but even if he isn’t

      • Dave D says:
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        Ha! Good point, Smitty. My hitting streak is over. Time for a new one to start? Admittedly I’m focused more on hockey now, but I’m still keeping tabs here on you guys!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh, snap, that’s right…Sorry, Dave D, better luck tomorrow!

  6. Matty says:
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    I love sleeper season because I can feel smug about reading closely all year and already having most of these guys on my dynasty roster.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, nice!

  7. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Goof afternoon Grey (or goodmorning if you are on the West Coast). Teams are coming to me with trade offers. The lastest i just got was I give up JD Martinez ($39) and I get get Staling Marte ($23), and Alex Verdugo ($6). Would you make that?

    • NUX says:
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      Def take that deal.

      But I will brace for your follow-up where everything changes in 3…. 2….. 1… ?

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        LOL Nux

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Verdugo side

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        SO MAKE THE DEAL GREY?

        • Scott Kimmel says:
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          sorry for the caps Grey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Verdugo side

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Goof afternoon to you too!

      Verdugo side

  8. Garrett says:
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    Hey Grey! Love sleeper season and ranking season. Loved it so much couldn’t wait and review Patreon content daily.

    Curious if you expand your take on Rowdy and Jared Walsh. It looks like you lean Rowdy a little higher but both projections are somewhat similar. Curious if you love one more than the other or if one has greater risk. Also given walsh offeseason news of them leaning his way on 1B reps looks like he should be able to easily profit on some of the plate appearance projections.

    I’m all over both but if you could only get 1 curious which one you like more.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I like them both, expand more than my sleeper posts for them?

      • Garrett says:
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        I’ve looked at the ranks in regards to 1b and they look right behind each other.

        i’m targeting both in FA bidding in a keeper league as we froze all our drafted teams and waivers are now running FA bids.

        Both appear to be upgrades over Hunter Dozier and Walker for my util spots. Both path to playing time appears to be there. Do you like 1 to outern projections more than the other or do you see them very close to each other overall.

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