Strongly debated not writing this post. It bums out to write it. I loved Teoscar Hernandez last year and told everyone to draft him around 200th overall. What a fantastic time was had by me and you, and him, I guess. What pushed me over the top thinking Teoscar Hernandez was overrated was our Steamer auction values. Not saying that’s the end all be all, but the icing on the shizz sundae? Oh, yeah, for sure. On our auction values, he’s ranked around that of Nick Solak. *stares into the abyss, the abyss stares back, unblinkingly* Yo, abyss, you best be blinking when I stare at you forlornly! The more I thought about Teoscar Hernandez being ranked around 150 overall for Steamer, the more I thought, “That’s prolly where he would’ve been ranked and drafted this year if we had 162 games last year. Also, why am I choking?” Then I realized I had the end of a hot dog lodged in my throat, and fell on my beanbag to dislodge it. “My beanbag” is a euphemism; I don’t live in a 1970’s basement den. Now I’m much closer to the once-absent-for-a-week Mr. Belvedere. If you know, you know. Actually, if you don’t know, I’ll tell you. Mr. Belvedere once missed a week of filming because he sat on his testicles. HA! Sorry, but everyone should know that. If you Google “Mr. Belvedere” you only need to add an S and it autofills “sat on his own balls.” I’m sorry, that will never get old. Okay, okay. Trying to move on, but I am snorting! What the eff, Mr. Belvedere? Teoscar is going around 70th ADP overall, and Steamer has him for 150, and I have him after the top 100, so…Well, again with some stank! So, what can we expect from Teoscar Hernandez for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Getting out of the way up front (after all that other nonsense), Rowdy Tellez, Randall Grichuk, and Alejandro Kirk. Not saying they’re all the meow of the cat, but they’re just not gonna play at all? I’m not saying Teoscar Hernandez will be benched every third day, but his at-bats are a lot more precarious than I think a lot of people are considering. As is my wont in these overrated posts to help objectivity, Teoscar’s Steamer projections are 71/28/82/.236/8. Our Steamer projections give him a lot fewer at-bats than most projections systems (478), but if you were to chuck an extra 100 ABs on his line, which I’m not sure you should do, his batting average won’t get much better, and, well, he turns into a 31/9 guy with ten more runs and RBIs. Some comparisons: Anthony Santander is projected for 27/5/.257 and Ian Happ is 27/9/.238. They’re all ranked higher on our auction values. Santander by a lot, ACKSUALLY. (Here’s my Anthony Santander sleeper. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, kazoo.)
If I had any Photoshop skills, I’d circle the .236 average as the biggest problem area. The runs and RBIs will be fed from that too. If that average drops too low, you really think the Jays will hesitant to put someone else in the lineup? Also, by sheer obviousness, a worse average equals worse counting stats. So, about that average. I hate making anything about average, because a guy can luck into a decent average, but Teoscar hit .289 last year, and that took the hat off Luck’s head, placed it on his own head, and he said, “I’m luck now.”
He’s a 30% strikeout rate guy. Let’s see how many guys hit .289 in 162 games who have a 30% strikeout rate…Hmm…Let’s grab their names now, shall we…Um…Looking…In the last twenty years, one guy hit .289 with a strikeout rate of 30+%. See if you can guess his name, I’ll give you a hint. I’m writing a post about him right now. Obviously that was in a season that was only 60 games long. Next closest was Jose Hernandez who hit .288 with a 32.3% strikeout rate and a .404 BABIP. I’d laugh, but I’m too tired. Just take my word for it, that’s hilarious. A 30% strikeout rate doesn’t just stop someone from hitting .280+. It stops them from hitting .240+. Of course, there’s some guys who have done it, but you strikeout a lot, you’re not hitting for a good average. Teoscar’s career K% is 31.6%. Him and .240 might be a pipe dream. Of course, other things factor into this. Hit a ton of line drives or a rate near where he hit them last year, and it’s a good start, but, again, that was in 190 at-bats! His previous “full season” was 26/6/.230 in 417 ABs. This is legitimately the goofiest schmohawk post, because he shouldn’t be drafted within three rounds of where he’s going. People have lost their damn mind. Stamp him schmohawk, and revel in the fact you’ll get Teoscar for cheap next year.
