There are certain stretches of baseball that make you want to hold a player forever. The ball is finding the grass, the fantasy stats are piling up and suddenly the guy who looked like a perfectly useful roster piece. That’s usually when I start getting nervous. I’m not looking for players who are simply lucky. Everyone gets lucky. What I’m looking for is a hitter whose current production has moved well beyond what the underlying skills suggest, particularly when the recent numbers are getting better while the quality of contact underneath them isn’t. If the market is going to pay me for what happened over the last month rather than what is most likely to happen over the next six weeks, I’m going to take the money. For this week’s Hitter Profiles, I went back through the full-season numbers and compared them directly with the last 30 days, looking at the actual production, expected statistics, batted-ball quality and the underlying contact profile. I also wanted players who actually matter in fantasy leagues. These aren’t guys I’m telling you to dump because they are bad. Quite the opposite. They’re three hitters who have enough value right now that I think somebody else should be the one taking on the risk. And because I don’t particularly enjoy telling people to trade somebody without having an idea of what to do with the roster spot, I’ve included a cheaper alternative for each one.
Please, blog, may I have some more?