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Please see our player page for Druw Jones to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

1. SS Jordan Lawlar | 21 | MLB | 2023

The sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft, Lawlar was on schedule to take over the shortstop spot at some point in 2024 but lost a huge chunk of the season to a thumb surgery. He played well when he played in the minors, slashing .318/.417/.482 in 23 games, and I think he’ll be a good value for people who buy early in the redraft season. In 2023, he hit 20 home runs and stole 36 bases in 105 games across two levels. 

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I’m working on a Top 100 update right now, and I’m struggling to make a case for anyone above Pirates RHP Paul Skenes. Sure, Jackson Holliday is a safer bet given the reality of every pitcher who’s ever thrown this hard getting hurt, but Skenes is such a unicorn, I’m inclined to stop treating him like a regular human baseball player. Part of it is the struggle to keep my brain functioning exclusively in the fantasy baseball realm, where of course it makes sense to pick the hitters over the pitchers 99.9 percent of the time. I just think this feels like that 0.1 percent of the time, and it’s hard to imagine any real baseball teams would prefer another prospect to Skenes. A guy like him can carry you through the playoffs, if you happen to make the playoffs, especially if he’s paired with another dynamite young arm like Jared Jones. I ranked Skenes 12th in my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects: Opening Day 2024, and I feel pretty foolish about that today. I had some worries about his health given how long it had been since we’d seen him pitch and how he finished 2023, but that’s a distant memory now. 

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Please clap for Busch’s slash line of .323/.431/.618 with 27 home runs across 98 Triple-A games in 2023. Now that he’s out of Los Angeles and being all but handed the first base gig in Chicago, he can finally stop faking second base and fully flower as a hitter. Or so goes the thinking that led the Cubs to acquire him, anyway. 

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1. SS Jordan Lawlar | 21 | MLB | 2023

The snakes slithered into the World Series on the strength of Corbin Carrol’s fantastic rookie season and some dynamite outings from the starting rotation. Lawlar’s on the books with a chance to repeat Carroll’s rookie of the year feat and establish himself as an everyday player in the top half of a contending lineup. At 6’2” 190 lbs, Lawlar plays plus defense at shortstop and brings plus power and speed on offense. The hit tool was his only question mark, but Lawlar answered that with a midseason surge that landed him in Triple-A, where he slashed .358/.438/.612 with five home runs, three stolen bases and 12 strikeouts in 16 games. He joined the big league club in September but couldn’t keep the hits coming and batted (and slugged) .129 with a 32.4 percent strikeout rate in 14 games. Would’ve been nice to see him help enough to have an obvious job entering 2024, but a couple weeks of 0-fers is no big deal for a guy his age debuting during a pennant race.

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We all have bad days. 

Weeks.

Months.

Years.

It happens. 

Nothing to do but peel yourself off the pillow next morning and try again. 

Just this week, my last day of classes for the year was a total shitshow. We had to squeeze in the last few speeches from the last few stragglers and foot-draggers. Didn’t even have time to say goodbye. Just four life-draining speeches then welp, that’s our time, see you around, maybe. So it goes. I’ll try to do something to prevent that next year. Live and learn. Then get Luvs. In case you keep shitting yourself in the clutch the way today’s featured players have been so far in 2023. 

Sitting next to me on the struggle bus is Giants LHP Kyle Harrison owns a 1.98 WHIP through six Triple-A starts. He’s walked 21 batters in 15.2 innings. Get this man some Dramamine. He seems dizzy from motion sickness. 

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1. Cardinals OF OF Jordan Walker | 20 | AA | 2023

At 6’5” 220 lbs with 80-grade power, plus athleticism and easy speed, Walker belongs to a rare class. No offense to Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson, I’m just slightly more confident Walker will be an impact fantasy player. Check out Grey’s Jordan Walker, 2023 Fantasy Outlook for more. Fun videos in there. Really drives home how easy it can look for Walker when he’s on his game.

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1. Orioles SS Jackson Holliday | 19 | A | 2026

The number one overall pick in 2022’s amateur draft, Holliday is a 6’1” 175 lb left-handed hitter who appears to have inherited his father’s all-out approach to baseball. He’s probably in a batting cage or a weight room right now. Everyone works hard at this level, but Holliday’s had access to baseball resources for a long time, and you can see the results in his game and his build. He dominated on the complex for just eight games before the team had seen enough and sent him to Low-A for the final two weeks of the season, where he posted a .439 on base percentage. He’ll likely head back there to open the year but should be able to force a promotion at some point. I suspect we’ll see more aggressive timelines with this next cohort of young Orioles in general. Holliday could be a nice bellwether for that. 

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The snakes have a strong system with several waves of help on the way. They have a lot of pieces to sort through and just this week designated OF Stone Garrett for assignment, trading for Kyle Lewis in a separate move that feels connected. Third base could be a platoon between Josh Rojas and Emmanuel Rivera. Roster resource has Pavin Smith penciled in at Designated Hitter, but I imagine that spot’s earmarked for Kyle Lewis or Rivera. Smith slugged just .367 last year as a rag-ball casualty. Lewis would have to get healthy and stay that way to make the lineup, where he could be a key right-handed cog amid a lot of promising lefties. I still think they should find room for Garrett and suspect he’ll clear his own path unless someone else claims him. You just don’t see many weak-hitting teams releasing power hitters who post a 131 wRC+ in their first 27 games as a major leaguer. 

 

1. OF Corbin Carroll | 22 | MLB | 2022

A lightning-quick lefty, the 5’10” 165 lb Carroll calls Mookie Betts to mind for his surprising core strength and plus barrel control. It’s a lofty thought, but Carroll warrants the optimism, cruising through the minors despite losing a season to a major shoulder injury. His all-fields power and double-plus speed helped him to 15 extra base hits in 32 big league games. In 93 games across three levels, Carroll slashed .307/.425/.610 with 24 home runs, 31 stolen bases, 22 doubles and eight triples. I’m not sure how high is too high for redraft leagues, but I suspect his ADP will rise month-over-month from here through April.

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Here’s where the introductory words would go, if I thought any of us really wanted to see some introductory words. 

1. OF Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | 21 | AAA | 2023 

2. SS Gunnar Henderson | Orioles | 21 | AAA | 2023

3. OF Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 18 | A+ | 2024

4. 3B Jordan Walker | Cardinals | 20 | AA | 2023 

Corbin Carroll lived alone in his own tier at the top early in the process, but the other three have such strong cases for the top spot I had to include them.

Gunnar Henderson quickly found his rhythm after a rough start at Triple–A and has been arguably the best player at the level since the break. 

If you want to rank Jackson Chourio first, don’t let me stop you. He’s slashing .333/.396/.476 with a home run and a stolen base in 10 games at High-A. He’s also posting a 10.4 percent walk rate and 16.7 percent strikeout rate, shushing the whispers around his 28 percent K-rate in Low A.

I had Jordan Walker in the tier below at one point, but you can only watch so many multi-homer games from a 20-year-old in Double-A without moving a dude up the list, even if he’s already at the summit. Is this ETA light on Jordan Walker? The Cardinals added pitching at the deadline and moved an outfielder. Lars Nootbar is playing well, but Walker would be following a long tradition of elite players joining their clubs late in the season to push for the playoffs. 

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I try to take a fairly simplistic view of the draft. My mind resists at times because the Major League Baseball Draft is an exercise in antitrust-exemption hyper-capitalism run amok, spotlighting primarily the lucky few blessed with generational gifts of wealth and circumstance along with their considerable physical skills. It’s a barefaced look at how structures that appear to be egalitarian in their theoretical bones are anything but in practice.   

Whoops, I did it again. Got lost in the games. Keep It Simple, Guy.

Reset: it’s about the organizations as much as it is about the players. You’ll see Jackson Holliday third here even though I like Elijah Green more as a player because I think the Orioles are doing well when it comes to communicating with their young players and aiding their development. No knock on the Nats, who have developed some hitters of their own, but Elijah Green brings some swing-and-miss risk along with the big power and elite speed, and I can’t remember this team developing someone with that specific hang-up. Plus, I don’t know . . . something about the whole organization feels bad right now. Can’t put my finger on it. Oh yeah, they’re doing this weird dance with Juan Soto a year after giving Trea Turner to the Dodgers to offload Max Scherzer’s contract. Their minor league system is weak, partly because they insisted on major-league-ready players in return for Turner and Scherzer. Their 2021 first round pick Brady House, also a high school hitter, has not played particularly well this year (0 HR, 2 BB, 31 K in his last 20 games before landing on the IL).  

I also like to take my time on stuff like this. Would prefer to see how these guys adapt to the pro game before ranking them for fantasy purposes, but I know some people have drafts that begin immediately after the MLB draft ends, so I burned the midnight oil for the past few weeks in hopes of replicating my best successes from FYPD lists of summers past like CJ Abrams, Corbin Carroll and James Wood.  

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