Member what I said in my Cody Bradford sleeper about leaning into command specialists? Spencer Arrighetti had a 4 BB/9. Go to sleep, Grey, you’re drunk. Just a stupid flip-flopping flip-flopper! There’s nothing I hate more than a flip-flopping flip-flipper even when it’s referring to myself! It’s very nice that Spencer Arrighetti had a 10.6 K/9 in 145 IP and is only 24 years of age. I do not care, you flop-flipping flop-flipper! Did you just flip-flop a “flip-flopping flip-flopper” to flip it to “flop-flipping flop-flipper?” Son of a–[sees that I called Spencer Arrighetti a future 2025 fantasy baseball sleeper more than anyone else during the 2nd half of the season during my 2nd half roundups] Hmm, what was August-Through-September Grey going on about? Was he behind my flip-flopping? Is he the reason behind my flip-flopping of flip-flopper to flop-flipper?! Did I enter a contest for most times flip-flop flip-flopping flip-flopper to flip it to flop-flipping flop-flipper could be used in a fantasy baseball post? Maybe, yes. I just had a small little chuckle thinking about ChatGPT trying to train it’s AI model about fantasy baseball by feeding it this post. I am making robots dumber, one post at a time. So, what can we expect from Spencer Arrighetti for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Tanner Bibee sleeper:
So, I did call Spencer Arrighetti a sleeper more than any other player in the 2nd half last year and still do want pitchers with excellent command and Spencer Arrighetti had a walk rate north of four. All of that is true, but as you might’ve reasoned by now, I called him a sleeper so much because his command wasn’t egregious in the 2nd half. In August, Arrighetti had a 13.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. I’m sorry, are you trying to become Tarik Skubal? That was in 32 1/3 IP, and when I began to start to fall in love with him. In 65 IP in the 2nd half, he had a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 21.4% K-BB. That would’ve been top ten in MLB if it was over the course of the season, between Wheeler and Shota. (For some reason, at first I wrote Shota’s name as Shotsky. Ha, he hasn’t been in Chicago that long.) On the season, Arrighetti had a 16.8 K-BB%, which is the 30th best, right behind Corbin Burnes. In the 2nd half, 21.4% K-BB% was 15th best, between Shotsky and Ober. As I’ve said so many times, if you were to just draft starters based on K-BB%, you could only go so wrong.
How has Spencer Arrighetti turned water into butter like a Pitching Jesus? A 94 MPH fastball setup pitch that gets rocked if he mis-locates, which he does, but an unhittable array of other junk. His curve produced a .171 BAA and he threw it 20% of the time. It was basically the third best curve in baseball last year. It’s Blake Snell, Zac Gallen then him. (Give or take, Flaherty and Fried are there too.) His 81 MPH sweeper, that he threw 11% of the time, had a .113 BAA. That ranked third in the majors, even when including relievers. It was Bryan Hudson, Porter Hodge then Arrighetti. Next starter was Severino with a .139 BAA, then Sonny Gray with .142 BAA. Finally, his 88 MPH cutter, which was 15th best in the majors. If his command gets better (why wouldn’t it) and he locates his fastball better, he is going to be a top five starter in baseball. As it is, he’s sitting there with a “just okay” fastball (because of location) and three lights-out pitches.
Oh, by the by, last year? That was his rookie year. Full stop. Actually, no full stop. Saying it again in a different way, the 24-year-old Spencer Arrighetti got that much better in the 2nd half of his rookie year. What’s he going to do for an encore? 10.5 K/9, 3 BB/9? If that’s what we get, we’re going to get an ace for 140 IP and maybe some iffy starts for 30 IP. That’s being conservative. He’s being drafted around 220 overall. You know you can bench a guy in bad matchups, right? Hate a patient team matchup that might hit Arrighetti hard if he falls behind in counts? Bench him. If I’m getting 140 IP of ace-shizz, I want that ace-shizz at 220 overall. For 2025, I’ll give Spencer Arrighetti projections of 11-9/3.61/1.32/204 in 172 IP with a chance for more.
