Listen, I’m a realist when it comes to numbers.  I understand that trends are written in there somewhere and the analytic guys use their Little Orphan Annie decoder rings to decipher everything.  I, my friends, am not that guy.  I look at something and then relay the message to you.  I am a sharer, an over excessive high-fiver, and extremely (and most importantly) excessively inappropriate in public.  I have looked at the numbers and I am telling you that the stolen base is the new punt stat.  Everyone always talks about punting stats from time-to-time in their ramblings of delusion, but I am being serious.  The downward trend in baseball is written in the stats.  I will even slap a handy chart in this post to clarify my thinking, (the chart is through the end of May for all other years but this), but the trend is going down the way of the SAGNOF drain.  I wish it weren’t true, because I loved watching the go-go 80’s and guys like Vince Coleman make a living being this generations, chuckle… Billy Hamilton.  Those days are gone.  Do we even remember the last guy who stole 100? 90? or even 80 bases in a year?  The answers are: 1987, 1988, and 1988 again.  The last significant stolen base total was when Jose Reyes was single and not suspended in 2007 with 78 swipes.  Like I said, I hate it to be true, but the days of amassing a significant total from one player, and having that player be a fantasy asset are dead and gone.  Running just doesn’t happen as frequently…  This is based on delivery times to plate, video technology, and basically the game evolving.  So I am sorry that this week’s report is a sad trombone of fantasy reality, which is an oxymoron, but I just wanted people to realize the decline in stat that they chase on a weekly basis.

Year Sb’s thru May Season Total
2016 646 646 (on pace 2584)
2015 978 2505
2014 832 2764
2013 978 2693
2012 878 3229
2011 1114 3279
2010 958 2959

So for those of you that don’t believe me or believe that the numbers lie, I have looked ahead at the upcoming week and who plays what and where, and pulled out some gems for the deep end of the steals market…

Leonys Martin – The power stroke is nice, as his his availability, 85% owned in Yahoo and an even better 6% in ESPN.  He is hitting at a .467 clip over the last week but with zero swipes.  With Ketel Marte heading for the DL, I think the onus will be more on him to move over through his feet.  He faces an Oakland team that has allowed the fourth highest amount of stolen base opportunities, and Minnesota which is last in BAA, and bottom three in WHIP and runs allowed per game.

Chase d’Arnaud – Not the catcher, but the middle infielder.  Has been getting regular playing time for the going nowhere Bravos, and the thing that makes him shine in ole’ Smokey’s eyes is that he is getting on base at .456 clip.  Unsustainable, heck no, but he has regular at-bats for the time being.  He gets a Milwaukee team that has let up 31 steals, good for fourth worse and is especially a sneaky play for Tuesday versus Jimmy Nelson.

Brandon Guyer – While the sexier name may be Desmond Jennings, it really isn’t.  Dez runs like a wobbly shopping cart with a circular object stuck in his wheel.  Guyer is the more top of the order bat, where as Jennings hits well down the line-up.  Granted, the Rays have honed their inner power bug and run very sporadically.  Guyer has more playing time now that Keirmaier is on the DL so don’t expect much, but the gathered stats like runs and OBP are nice for a guy owned in less then 1% universally.

 

 
  1. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I can confirm you are excessively inappropriate in public. Handsy too….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That reminds me of this Selena Gomez song, okay, gonna pretend I just said that to myself

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:
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        @Grey: at least say Ariana Grande makes me feel trashy when I am compared to Selena

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: can’t get to second base without using your hands my friend

  2. ryanoger says:
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    Weakest closer going forward?

    K-Rod, Casilla, Madson, Dyson, Gomez?

    thanks smokey!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @ryanoger: yikes you basically have the 14-18th ranked closers, I mean anything can happen in a week’s time but Dyson just got the job but that could be a good thing. Do I have to choose and can it be a 5 way tie?

      • ryanoger says:
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        @Smokey:

        Looking to deal one and I have come to like my crew of closers, prob a little too much. Think the person is willing to take whichever one I throw out there…Grey said lose Gomez…wanted to get your take?

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @ryanoger: I would go with the one with the most trade value for best return. K rod or Madson would be might bait

          • ryanoger says:
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            @Smokey:

            It’s actually to stash Trea Turner? Or should I hold and try to get more value elsewhere?

            thanks so much man

            • Smokey

              Smokey says:
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              @ryanoger: I would hold win your league saves stat by august 1st lol. Stashing is nice but would Turner be better then what you have at 2b ss thats the question

              • ryanoger says:
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                @Smokey:

                Pedroia is my 2b…I’m now thinking just hold then right?

                • Smokey

                  Smokey says:
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                  @ryanoger: yes sir

  3. JimmyJackJames says:
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    Smoke, great writeup.

    As a sad Perkins owner, I just picked up Trevor May despite his recent struggles – Jepsen is horrific and likely to be traded – do you see May getting a shot if Perkins shoulder continues to noodle?

    Also, are you a Boxberger believe when he returns?

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @JimmyJackJames: the Twins bullpen is a fantasy mess, I don’t condone you go anywheres near it but if desperate for stats I can understand. I think Colome stays with it until he fails

  4. Scott says:
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    How do you like Goeddel?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Scott: I like him and he is getting regular at bats lately and is rewarding them in kind 11-26 in last 7. If he continues to get regular AB’s he could give sneaky of4 value

  5. Luvdarooks says:
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    Casilla looks locked in. Should i cut bait on strickland who has to stay on my active standard 5×5 only roster?
    Just picked up S Dyson and could use a starter.
    The extra closer would have been sweet trade bait and to cut hiim a shade too soon would be a tragety while holding him too long will be debilitating to my k and wins. Donchalovedisgame?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Luvdarooks: Yea Strickland has been passed imo and Romo is looming fir his return as well

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