Well, I had a nice introductory paragraph set to go here for everyone. I really did. Then I decided to go have a peek at YouTube to find a wrestling clip to fit with our lede/title. Lo and behold, after a bit of a slip down said YouTube rabbit hole, I managed to find the perfect (open to interpretation) analogy of Jake McCarthy’s season…
Let’s assume that Jake is the title character here and our ‘Macho Man’ is Dominic Fletcher.
Jake starts out a bit rough, takes an ‘elbow to the chops’, (AAA Reno assignment), then when it looks like his opponent has the upper hand, he manages to turn the tables and finish him off with a patented DDT.
Apologies to those of you that aren’t fans of those old 80’s (or any) wrestling matches, but it feels like Jake McCarthy has managed to avoid that figurative minor league flying elbow. With the optioning of Dominic Fletcher, McCarthy is officially back in business in Arizona. There’s no need to pull the snake out…(hey-o!)…but even Jake ‘The Snake’ Roberts would appreciate this kind of reversal and finishing move by the D-Backs outfielder.
That’s a good thing for our fantasy baseball lineups as we’re almost into June and things are heating up! Gone are the days of the small sample size, as all teams have passed the 50 game threshold and are officially a third of the way through the season.
I wrote up McCarthy in one of my preseason SAGNOF profile posts, (here’s the link if you want to dive in further – SAGNOF: Quantity Over Quality), but I can pull a couple of quotes just to save you a click or two…
“McCarthy isn’t getting as much helium as his rookie teammate and OF neighbor, Corbin Carroll. A deeper dive into his numbers should explain why there’s been a crescendoing whisper about Jake in fantasy circles this draft season.
McCarthy’s Forecaster SPD score is a whopping 147, good for third behind the aforementioned Carroll and Steven Kwan (in >400 AB). His 70 grade speed (!) is almost as good as it gets. But has he hit those ‘standards of swiftness’ in his pro career?”
“Two seasons of 30+ steals in pro ball should be a good enough indicator for future success, but the fact that he swiped 23 in less than 360 major league at-bats means he should have an even higher number over a full MLB season.”
As our Fantasy Master Lothario would say, “…and that’s me quoting me!”.
But why now? Did McCarthy do anything in the minor leagues since his demotion, and has he hit the ground…uh…running since his callup?
The quick answer is, “enough…and, yes”.
In 90 MiLB at bats this year, McCarthy managed to hit 4 HR, steal 4 bases, and post a triple slash line of .333/.419/.533. Not a bad showing in Reno, and definitely worthy of a recall.
Since his call-up (call-back?) on May 26th? 3-for-11 with 3 SB and a nice stat fill on Monday evening with a 2-for-4 night and 2 SB. Personally, that alone makes my (significant) overpay in Sunday night’s TGFBI FAAB run feel a bit more palatable.
McCarthy probably isn’t going to challenge for the home run title anytime soon, but expecting 7-10 homers the rest of the way with a very healthy SB total (25+) should be more than reasonable. His contact rates should be good enough that he won’t sink your team batting average either. Let’s not forget, Grey had this guy on the shortlist for a 2023 sleeper post too.
Heading back to the info that I started sharing a couple of weeks ago, here are the top 5 best teams to run against (so best opponent SB% by team). Just as a heads up, I’m sorting based on qualified catchers now (looks like that’s any catcher above 10 opportunities)…
| TEAM | OPP. SB% | NEXT 7 GAMES | PRIMARY CATCHER | CS% (CS/ATTEMPTS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | 91.8 | SD/OAK/KC | Jacob Stallings | .043 (1/23) |
| Padres | 89.4 | @MIA/CHC | Austin Nola | .083 (3/36) |
| Dodgers | 89 | WSH/NYY | Austin Barnes | .089 (4/45) |
| Pirates | 88.7 | @SF/STL/OAK | Austin Hedges | .103 (3/29) |
| Mets | 86.5 | PHI/TOR | Francisco Alvarez | .105 (4/38) |
Some quick hits here…
- Apparently, if you’re planning on having a child anytime soon and want them to become a defensively strong MLB catcher, don’t name them Austin.
- Jacob Stallings was the one I chose in Miami, but Nick Fortes is just as worthy of a highlight/lowlight in this chart. He’s caught just 3-of-36 baserunners for a cool .115 CS%.
- That Tampa game where the Rays had 7 SB against the Mets last week really cemented Alvarez in the top 5 here. That said, Tomas Nido hasn’t been much better (1/9 – .111 CS%).
Speaking of steals…and of course we are…here are the team leaders up to, but not including, Tuesday night’s games…
| TEAM | GAMES PLAYED | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 57 | 74 | 16 |
| Pirates | 53 | 58 | 19 |
| Athletics | 56 | 53 | 12 |
| Diamondbacks | 54 | 47 | 8 |
| Guardians | 54 | 46 | 9 |
| Orioles | 55 | 45 | 10 |
| Reds | 54 | 43 | 17 |
| Marlins | 55 | 43 | 11 |
| Cardinals | 57 | 43 | 10 |
| Brewers | 54 | 42 | 10 |
| Blue Jays | 55 | 42 | 12 |
A quick check in on some of the teams from our chart…
Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds are new to our list here and for good reason. They stole 8 bags over the last 7 days and were caught just once.
- An excellent question in the game of “Baseball Player Name or Old English Poet”, Stuart Fairchild, led the Reds with 3 SB over the last week.
- The rest of the Reds SB list makes sense when you think of how many are known for their speed skills. Jonathan India, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Nick Senzel, Jose Barrero are all in that top SB group.
- Our profile from last week, Matt McLain, has one SB in his first 13 games but should start to boost that total by a bunch much sooner than later.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jake The Snake was our lede up above and has already started flexing those 70 grade wheels with 3 SB in 4 games since the recall. Even better, he singled and stole another last night during my final edits.
- Corbin Carroll is fuelling the D-backs ranking here with 14 SB and just 2 CS.
- Josh Rojas (6), Ketel Marte (5), and Geraldo Perdomo (5) are the next on the list.
- I was pretty surprised to see catcher Gabriel Moreno with 3 SB on the year, too.
Chicago Cubs
- Wait, these guys didn’t make the list. Yep. This is more of a check-in as to why the Cubs have fallen off. Chicago was a top SB team in 2022, and had started off 2023 with a bang, but over the last two weeks they’ve had just three players steal one or more bases.
- Nico Hoerner hasn’t stolen a base in 11 games since his return from injury. Cody Bellinger has been out since May 15th, too (eligible to come back June 8).
- Over the last 7 days, the Cubs had one SB. This one might call some owls out of the rafters if you say it out loud, though: Miles Mastrobuoni.
For the profile this week, I’ll reference the Hittertron SB$ values for some of our best plays (May 30 – June 6). Just a reminder that you can have full access to all of this, along with Streamonator and Relievonator (and more) with our 2023 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.
Willi Castro – 3B/OF – MIN – SB$ ranking : 28th 3B, 80th OF ($0.6)
I swear I thought this guy was at least 30 years old.
No, not that Willie. And, ok, maybe not that old.
Willi Castro was someone I had as a fill-in for injuries last year in the AL-only pool, and he was just as overlooked this spring as he was last year.
The 26 year old (!) was signed as an international free agent way back in 2013 by Cleveland. He played his first pro season at Rookie ball in 2014 at the age of 17! Despite a couple of minor league seasons with 11 home runs, Castro didn’t profile as much of a difference-maker with the bat.
The scouting scores point to an average to above average 45-55 grade in most categories. The power and hit tool came out at 45, which is basically a platoon or average regular player. The speed, fielding, and arm graded out at an above average 55.
The minor league steals totals back up the scouting. From 2015 through 2019 Castro stole double digits every year (capping out at 19 in 2017).
In 125 games with Detroit in 2021, Castro stole 9 bases. In 112 games with Detroit in 2022, Castro stole 9 bases.
Want to guess how many he has with Minnesota in 42 games this year? If you guessed 9, you still don’t get a prize but you’re right.
The good news is Castro is a sure bet to crack the double digit barrier in steals this year as he’s been getting regular at bats in the Twins lineup. In May, he has a .309 AVG, 3 HR, 12 R, 8 SB, and just 1 CS. Pretty solid numbers for a guy that qualifies at the corner and OF in most leagues, and even more spots depending on how low your league’s eligibility thresholds are.
The bad news? Over that same span, Castro’s BB% is 1.4 and he’s swinging through some pitches at a 31.9 K%. Ouch.
I’m not saying to blow your FAAB wallet trying to “Free Willi” from your waiver wire, but I think there are worse options to look into if you’re seeking out a replacement for the injured Manny Machado, like I did in TGFBI this weekend, or for other corner infielders on the IL.
Ride the hot hand. It is SAGNOF, after all.
Before I leave for the week, here are our top 10 SB leaders (individual and, again, as of Tuesday afternoon). I’ll try to keep the chart handy for you each week just to use as a reference point if you find that it helps.
| NAME | TEAM | STOLEN BASES | CAUGHT STEALING | ON-BASE PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteury Ruiz | Athletics | 27 | 3 | .338 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 22 | 3 | .408 |
| Wander Franco | Rays | 20 | 5 | .361 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | 16 | 3 | .267 |
| Ji-Hwan Bae | Pirates | 15 | 5 | .327 |
| Starling Marte | Mets | 15 | 3 | .316 |
| Jorge Mateo | Orioles | 15 | 2 | .275 |
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | 14 | 2 | .369 |
| Jazz Chisholm | Marlins | 14 | 2 | .291 |
| Whit Merrifield | Blue Jays | 14 | 2 | .339 |
That’s all, Razzfolks! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!
