As mentioned many times in the past, there’s different types of fantasy baseball sleepers. They can’t all be, “Who the H-E-double hockey sticks are you talking about?” Some guys are going to be no dur sleepers. Jake McCarthy is interesting because I think he might be both, depending on what kind of league you’re in. I could see him being a “What the H-E-double hockey sticks” in some leagues with people who are immersed in fantasy baseball all year long. There’s others though, who don’t follow fantasy baseball year-round. and these people are the real freaks. They have lives six months of the year when there’s no baseball? That sounds nuts, to be honest. For those absolute freaks, they might not realize how good Jake McCarthy was last year, and could let him slip in drafts. The slightly hilarious thing is the big box sites like ESPN are in this group, as they also cater to the freaks. I have no idea at this point, as I write this in October, and you read it in December, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jake McCarthy ranked around 275 overall at ESPN, if at all. He’s the kind of guy that is just completely overlooked. Therefore, ergo, vis-a-vie, if you’re seeing Jake McCarthy 2023 fantasy baseball sleeper and thinking, “No dur.” You’re right, he should be no dur, but he won’t be no dur for all people. If you’re thinking, “Okay, if you’re writing this for freaks, and I’m reading it, does it make me a freak?” No, you’re reading this in December. You’re no freak. Unless you read this in March. Then you be a freak. So, what can we expect from Jake McCarthy for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Jake McCarthy sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hanukkah miracle! Or late Hanukah miracle, depending on when Hanukkah is this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Jake McCarthy sleeper:
In 230 at-bats in the 2nd half, Jake McCarthy stole 21 bags and was caught only three times (and one of those was a steal of home). Oh, and he hit five homers. Hey, not to grab a random top 15 overall player from back in the day, but is his full name Jacoby Ellsbury McCarthy? Can we get eyes on his birth certificate? Also, is Jacoby Ellsbury a time traveler? Has he returned as a Diamondback? I got questions, y’all! So, with Jacoby Ellsbury–excuse me Jake McCarthy, or so he says he is, he absolutely hot schmotato’d in the 2nd half, right? We can’t just prorate that out…*devilishly looks both ways*…can we? But he stole 21 bags in 63 games. That’s elite speed, right? Yeah, Broseph Jonas, I’m interested. Could he steal 50 bags? That’s what Grey said!
Okay, that’s my thoughts on his speed, which is the most obvious aspect to his game, so onto to the more interesting and less obvious elements to his game. Call them the unobtainium elements to his game. His Launch Angle (8) and 28.6% fly ball rate are a little “Larry David making the meh face.” You don’t really want someone with his speed hitting lots of fly balls, but I don’t think he was cheated with his eight homers. He had a 4.8% Barrel rate and 87.4 MPH exit velocity, which honestly might be some of the worst numbers I’ve seen in a sleeper. If homeboy didn’t have 200 horsepower and go gallop-gallop, I might not be here with a sleeper post.
Also, I’m a little concerned about his home/away splits. The DumbBacks made their once-great-hitting park a bit of a nightmare for guys with warning track power. The three-year rolling average for Arizona puts it around 25th in the league with PNC, another crap stadium, and last year Arizona was 29th in the league, only better than the Oakland Coliseum. Return humidors to cigar stores and get them out of baseball parks! Jake McCarthy is only 25 years of age, and has shown power at the last few stages of the minors, but he feels like a guy who we’d more likely see a 5/35 season from than 20/40. So, McCarthy is more “every year of Ellsbury” than that one random year when Ellsbury hit 32 homers. Usually Steamer is pretty conservative with projections, but giving McCarthy 16 homers in 150-ish games feels way more like a ceiling projection than realistic. Hey, Steamer, you been hanging out with Mr. Prorater? “If you were to teach your dog how to poop into plastic bags, you’d save 47.5 hours in your lifetime.” Oh, shut up, Mr. Prorater!
Finally, Jake McCarthy makes decent contact (21.5% strikeout rate, 74.4% contact rate). They’re near-league averages. His BABIP should be a bit inflated, maybe .325, and his walk rate will sit around 8-9.5%. It’s a .260-ish average with neutral luck. Maybe .265 if the BABIP can stay a little high based on the speed. He hits a lot of ground balls, so the lack of the shift might benefit him even if his exit velocity is kinda bleh. ACKSHUALLY, the dribblers he hits might help his average. Hit doinkers, and run, Forrest, run. For 2023, I’ll give Jake McCarthy projections of 86/11/71/.263/33 in 561 ABs with a chance for more.
Hey Grey. How does mccarthys value change with the varsho trade?
He was the three hole hitter with Varsho and he still is, if anything Carroll now hitting lead off could boost his value even more
Dang it, I was hoping to get McCarthy late in my draft, now you go and right a sleeper post on him.
How do you see the playing time shaking out now that AZ has Kyle Lewis, Corbin Carroll, Varsho and McCarthy all looking for at bats?
Lewis is in DH platoon
And gets hurt before April ends!
Of course, ha
“write” not “right”. Geez…what a maroon
Just in case anyone is interested in getting in another early draft I have signed up for the $50 2 Hour Gladiator Draft currently filling on NFBC. This is the 23 person 15 team draft ultimate Best Ball. No pickups. Your 23 guys are it. All. Year. Long.
Should be a challenge, Oh and a challenging group. That Phil Dussault guy is in this one also.
Ooh, I kinda wanna try it
Well you know where to go. I was only going to do the one early draft, but I think they are limiting this format to 1500 entries and I think they’ve filled 900 spots already between the nightly drafts and slow drafts. Wanted to try at least one.
I like the idea of having one just to see what it’s like, I kinda hate that it’s going on while I’m doing another draft tho
Yeah, not that I can’t handle two, but now I suddenly feel like an addict
It’s funny how that works. Draft addiction!
Haha, yeah, trying to avoid that!
I keep reminding myself that I have to manage them for six months. That brings me back to earth. The first one is always a blast…
Yeah…tho, that league Knoche is talking about has no managing involved…It’s set it and forget it
I’d bet they still have them going when were done with the first one. I figured I dont have to worry about finding my 13th starting pitcher in this one.
Haha, I’m not sure I have a 3rd starter!
I’m with you there. I’ve got a full team of position players minus a second catcher, but only four starters and two closers (hopefully).
My entire pitching staff can be defined as: Hopefully
Haha… I’m not far behind you on that sentiment.
Like it Knoche! Just signed up for a DC, but might give it a look afterwards
hey knoche, is the gladiator league you are in the only 2 hour that’s currently in NFBC Lobby??
I’m in anyways, trying something different, lol
Sounds very cool Hernan, different for sure.
Yes. Now 9/15 spots filled and you are one of them.
I can’t take drafting vs all you sharks again this soon!
y’all with your spreadsheets and analytics while I’m over here winging this shit haha
Haha, I’m sorta winging this first draft, I don’t even have my starter rankings yet
It’s getting to the fun part now. Peeps be grabbing anyone and everyone ADP de damned!
I know, I saw Yoshida had an ADP of 450 so I thought I could wait, and I lost him
I traded mccarthy for Helsley in a Dynasty league. Same value for both players. Did I make a good move.
Water under the bridge, right? Sounds fine
Snagged McCarthy last year in our 13 team 5×5 dynasty league! Great write up! Thoughts on Conforto? Does he sign and is he worth grabbing? I know you don’t have a crystal ball but your insights are greatly appreciated! Thank you!
I’m kinda surprised that Conforto hasn’t signed yet…Figure a team like the Jays could use him at DH
a. I got heem in my dynasty. Here’s how, based on a true story.
1 Guy in my league DRAFTED him in our FYPD for the 2022 season in the 10th round of our minor-league supplementary draft. Being freak-ish at the time, I dissed him for taking him when other better prospects were available. My complaint was based on him purposely tanking instead of taking prospects if it were a true dynasty.
2 The transaction history is kind of weird. It shows that our league is filled with freaks.
3 August 2, I picked up Jake off the WW.
b. George Carlin quote of the day for December 12, 2022
‘We will, we will, however, be talking about those little moments that seem to last forever. Have you ever been in a serious social situation when you suddenly realize you have to pull the underwear out of the crack in your ass? Do you take this woman to be your lawful wedded wife? Huh? Who, her? Oh, hell yeah. Well, it’s one of life’s little moments, isn’t it? It’s one of those little moments you have to deal with at the time. You can’t postpone that. You can’t put that off and be walking around like this. You’ve got to get in there and clear that thing out. You’ve got to rescue your underwear. There’s a letter in your mailbox. That’s right. And you have to rectify that situation so that you can move along to your next embarrassing moment, which is probably scheduled immediately. That’s the way life is, full of those little moments. Everybody knows them, everybody recognizes them. You ever been at a really loud party, I mean, a good loud party where the music is playing too loud and everybody is talking too loudly, and in order to be heard even by the person standing right next to you, you’ve got to be screaming at the top of your lungs. But every now and then at a party, it seems as though everyone shuts up at the same time. And only your voice, can be heard. Right, I know. I know. Well, what I’m going to do, I’m going to have my testicles laminated. Life’s little moments. You ever been talking to someone and you laugh through your nose and blow a snot on your shirt. And you have to just kind of keep talking, you know, and make believe it’s part of the design. Works all right if you’re wearing a Hawaiian shirt, but otherwise they’re going to notice. Ed, you got a big snot on your shirt. Some guys are really cruel, you know. And some of these things are not even your fault. These little things that happen, you didn’t cause the situation, a lot of time you’re the victim. You walk into some situation, and suddenly you’re the one who’s taking all the heat. Not your fault. Give you an example of the kind of thing I mean. Did you ever meet somebody and you go to shake the guy’s hand and you suddenly realize he doesn’t have a complete hand? And you got to make believe it feels great, Right, you can’t go ahhhhhhhh, ahhhhhhhh! Ahhhhh! You can’t do that. It’s not even an option. You got to hang in there and say hi, hey, swell hand. Give me three. Hi 3, yo! Not your fault. You didn’t cause that. You weren’t even there when it happened to the guy.’
DOIN’ IT AGAIN (1990)