Welcome guys and five girl readers to another edition of SAGNOF as we look for targets to prop up our stolen base totals on the season. We’ve taken looks at lots of different angles over the first two months of the season. I am especially proud of our “Speed Dials” (Grey we adding this to the glossary or what? Full credit to VinWins) section of the article where we have now nailed 8 out of 36 stolen base daily streaming targets.
Today we dive into a recent call-up who is going to fly under the radar, especially in shallow leagues. He comes to us via the Seattle Mariners and looks like he has potential to be the second coming of my favorite SAGNOF player coming into the year Jose Caballero. Perhaps another similar player will come along next year and then I can finally write the “Three Caballeros” article Razzball deserves. This second Caballero has something Jose is slightly lacking and that is a little power in his bat. The man I speak of is Ryan Bliss.
Bliss has 17 Home Runs across 517 AAA plate appearances and checks in with a 22.1% K-Rate and beautiful 14.1% walk rate. He’s also snagged 53 AAA steals across 2023-2024 (28 just this year). So to recap, a little pop, a great walk rate to get on base, and a knack for stealing bases.
One possible issue is that for all his speed (29.0-29.5 Ft/Second sprint speed) his BABIP only sits at a little under .290 in AAA. That sets up for a .250ish ceiling on the batting average which isn’t awful, and could be higher if he can make a little harder contact. On the other hand, it could be lower with some bad luck. Second possible issue is where he will find at-bats in the Seattle line-up. I think they’ll find a way to use him in creative ways though as he showed what a spark plug he can be stealing a pair of bases in Saturday’s contest to set up a run. It might mean Dylan Moore spends more time in the Outfield, but if he’s getting on base I don’t see how they keep him on the bench.
He should be available in most leagues and if you need some supplemental stolen bases I wouldn’t hesitate to get him onto your roster and plug him in the lineup whenever he is starting.
Here’s the Stolen Base Leader Board through Monday 6/3
The Speed Dials
We went 1 of 4 last week. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. That means we are now 8 for 36 on the season. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Rangers vs Tigers – Wednesday June 5th
Leody Taveras – Against right handed pitchers Taveras has been hitting 5th in the lineup and providing a little power and a little speed and a few runs. His sprint speed is solid at 28.5 Ft/Sec and he is 19 of 25 in pilfering bags the last two seasons. He will face Kenta Maeda who allows .111 SB/IP and has an 84.2% success rate against him on the base paths. There’s a big difference in catchers for the Tigers as Carson Kelly is a top 10 throwing catcher with a 33% cut down rate while Jake Rogers is at 19%.
Pirates vs Dodgers – Thursday June 6th
Ji-Hwan Bae – Bae has been in the lineup against all right handers since his return from the minors and has already stolen two bases in 24 plate appearances this year after swiping 24 bags last season. While he doesn’t have elite sprint speed at 27.7 Ft/Sec he does seemingly get some great jumps, but does get cut down a fair share at only a 72.2% success rate. He’ll oppose recently returned Walker Buehler who hasn’t quite rounded into form yet coming back from injury. He’s allowing .160 SB/IP in only 25 big league innings since coming back up. He is blessed with a top throwing catcher in Will Smith, but it’s possible we will see Austin Barnes in the final game of the series and that’s a green light catcher to run against.
Red Sox vs White Sox – Friday June 7th
Ceddanne Rafaela – The Raf still isn’t hitting for average. Or walking. He is however stealing a little now up to eight on the season. His biggest problem is he has been caught four times to go with that so they may limit his chances some. I don’t think they’ll take away the green light against Nick Nastrini and the White Sox. Nasty Nick has allowed a perfect 7 for 7 in stolen bases against him in just 20.1 IP in the majors. That’s a .344 SB/IP folks. It’s not all on the catchers either as Korey Lee and Martin Maldanado rank 33rd and 34th out of 67 qualified catchers in MLB the last two seasons at cutting down runners the definition of average.
Royals vs Mariners – Saturday June 8th
Dairon Blanco – The ultimate SAGNOF player for the 2024 season Blanco has 12 steals in 64 plate appearances. This game sets up on paper for a pitchers dual with Luis Castillo facing Cole Ragans. I doubt Blanco faces Castillo as part of the regular lineup, but if this is a close game late and someone gets on first base there’s a good chance we’ll see Blanco pinch run. He has top 8 MLB sprint speed at 29.8 Ft/sec and has 83 SB vs 14 CS across AAA and MLB since the start of 2023. He would be facing an uncertain pitcher and potentially Top 10 throwing catcher Cal Raleigh, but I don’t think it matters cause if he pinch runs he’s taking second base.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
