Rolling In The Deep: A Deeper Dive Back To First

Happy February Everyone! Last week, we talked about first base and some general draft trends and tiers when taking a broader overall look at the position. Today, we’ll return to our deep-league roots to look further down the first base rankings in search of some gems — or at least escape hatch plans — once we are deep into a draft or running out of money in an auction. None of these are names that we’ll want to rely on as our primary first basemen in even the deepest of leagues, but that doesn’t mean they might not have some value as back-ups, bench depth, or just an emergency plan in a draft that goes completely off the rails.

Rather than going by straight ADP, which, as we touched on last week, can be particularly misleading the deeper into the rankings you get, I’m going to use the “minimum pick” number as my threshold for this list. Using the last month of overall NFBC ADP, we’ll look at two trios of players: one group of players who each haven’t been picked higher than #250 overall in any draft, and a second who haven’t gone any higher than #350 overall. I’ll also include the player’s overall ADP as well as their max pick number. So, let’s take a peek into the proverbial bottom of the first base barrel and see if we think any of these names may be able to rise above their lowly preseason rankings and ultimately provide some deep league value.

Minimum Pick 250+

Josh Bell (min/max 260/467, ADP 388). Let’s not get ourselves into thinking that Bell is ever going to return to the fantasy baseball contributor he once was back in the day. But as landing places go, Minnesota doesn’t seem like a bad spot in terms of opportunity. With regular at-bats, the power should be there if you need some late thump out of a corner spot. I think this price is beyond fair and maybe even a potential value for a guy whose batting average over the last three years is probably better than you thought it was (.245).

Spencer Horwitz (min/max 277/456, ADP 415). Horwitz is a guy I had targeted late coming into draft season, but still haven’t rostered somehow. In my first draft, he went way sooner than I expected him to. In my second, he fell further, but at that point in the draft, the way my roster was constructed, I had higher priorities than corner infield depth. The Pirates have made some relatively impactful (for them) additions this offseason, so there are a lot of moving parts, and right now I’m having trouble predicting playing time in Pittsburgh. That being said, this late in a draft, I think there’s just enough upside with Horwitz to make him a fairly intriguing option.

Nathaniel Lowe (min/max 283/622, ADP 583).  One of the reasons I’m even including Nate Lowe is that he’s a solid example of how one or two aberrant picks can really skew a guy‘s ADP once you’re past a certain point in drafts. While Lowe’s minimum pick number is very close to Bell’s, as you can see, there is a huge discrepancy in their overall ADP. Lowe is still a free agent, which in and of itself can suppress ADP until there is news one way or another about a signing. I actually drafted him very late in one of my draft and hold leagues, but I’m starting to wonder if the baseball world as a whole has just about given up on him, and I’m half expecting a note about him playing overseas one of these days. While he was never anything close to a fantasy stud, he was at least a batting average stabilizer and general stats accumulator for a while, but for now, I think I’m out at any price until and unless we hear about a moderately intriguing signing.

Minimum Pick 350+

Pavin Smith (min/max 374/585, ADP 559). I think the D-Backs signing Santana (who hasn’t been picked higher than #591 yet; we’ll see if that changes) took many by surprise, at least those who were expecting an end-of-career return to the desert for Paul Goldschmidt. It’s hard to imagine Santana has much left in the tank at this point, and for me right now, Arizona’s 2026 lineup is one of the hardest to project. Will the switch-hitting Santana actually be the everyday or at least sort of regular first baseman, with Smith being the strong side of a DH platoon? Will Adrian Del Castillo end up fitting into the mix, and just how hurt is Tyler Locklear? Is Blaze Alexander actually going to play outfield? (Dude literally got traded while I was turning this post in… so, one question answered, anyway!) Will Alek Thomas still be on the team next month? And did the Arenado signing drive Jordan Lawlar completely out of the picture for now? Are we 100% convinced that Ketel Marte truly isn’t going anywhere any time soon? It all seems very murky, and those aren’t always the most fun situations to navigate during draft season, especially in early February. But if you can grab the right guy at the right price, there could be some value to be had out of this mess. He may not be a fountain of upside, but I think there’s a non-zero chance that Smith helps on the right roster in the right league.

Paul Goldschmidt (min/max 376/592, ADP 546). It’s probably been a few years since I mentioned Goldy two blurbs in a row, and I have to say I’m having trouble figuring out if he’ll be of any value at all this year, or if he’s officially reached roster clogger status even in deeper leagues. I think the folks surprised that he didn’t end up back in Arizona may now be expecting him to return to the Big Apple, and if that happens, I’d expect it to boost his draft stock noticeably if not overwhelmingly. While last year’s .274 average was certainly helpful, it’s just not comforting to see that Goldschmidt only managed 10 homers in a much larger number of at bats than I realized he had (489). I suppose this isn’t a crazy grab if you can get him well after pick 500, but I wouldn’t go near him anywhere near his min pick number.

Jake Bauers (min/max 394/595, ADP 601). Welcome to the closest thing we’re going to find to a legitimate power/speed threat on this list. Yes, the bar is low. Bauers hit 7 homers and had 8 steals in 183 at bats last year, and I should probably mention that he did it while only hitting .235, so it wasn’t like he was helping in the average category either. The fact that he also qualifies at outfield is likely why he’s going even this high in drafts, since much of the NFBC data is driven by draft and hold leagues where multi-position eligibility can add significantly to a player’s value. There’s no reason to think his playing time will increase this year, but I do want to point the CBS’s projections for Bauer include not only 308 at bats, but also 14 homers and 12 steals. That feels extremely optimistic to me, but if it happened, that’d be a pretty decent return for a guy whose ADP sits right at the 600 mark.

Well, if nothing else, this list has shaped up to be a reminder that I don’t want to get caught in any league, deep or otherwise, without a solid option at first base, as I’m realizing just how ugly the scramble to fill the position gets later in a draft. There’s a few other free agents in this range, like Rhys Hoskins and Ty France, that I didn’t even include as flyers since I’m not buying in even as depth until we know more. Thanks for reading, and happy drafting to all!