Here’s what A.J. Hinch said regarding Riley Greene and his teammate, who I just covered in my Spencer Torkelson fantasy, “It’s gonna be big drama, and you guys are gonna ask a lot, and I love that. I love the pressure on these guys. And then we’ll see where it takes us. I hope they put all kinds of pressure on us for Opening Day.” Trying not to lose my shizz that every prospect, who is ready, should be called up when they’re ready. The system is so broken when they look at guys and think, “He’s going to make it tough on us. We know he’s ready, but we also don’t want to pay him in the landmark case of sooner vs. later.” For me, I know a guy is ready when they rip up Triple-A, which Riley Greene did:  8/4/.308 in only 159 ABs. Tigers prospects to finally get excited about (with Spencer), huh? Gotta love it (that’s an order). Mean Gene Riley Greene’s 2022 is going to have a lot to do with how much the Tigers are playing Service Time Games, which sounds like a bad Chris Isaak song. (Are there good Chris Isaak songs? Don’t answer that.) And how well Greene does in the spring. If he has a 5/5/.400+ type spring, he might force his way into the Opening Day roster. It’s not like the Tigers have anyone else in front of him to stop him. Like Cuban regimes, they’re basically rotating in and out of Castros. Willi Castro here, Harold Castro there, neither Castro is any good. So, what can we expect from Riley Greene for 2022 fantasy baseball?

Combining his 124 games at Double and Triple-A, Riley Greene went 24/16/.301 with 25 doubles, eight triples and a 11.5% walk rate and 27.6 K%. That last rate worries me a tad. He is 21 years old (he was the youngest guy at Double-A this year), so I’m not writing him off as a guy who can’t make contact, but when a guy with a 27% strikeout rate comes up, here’s what happens:  The strikeout rate balloons to 32%, then people are like, “Damn, I wanted to like Riley but he comes with a .230 average, and I can’t afford that. Maybe some other time!” Then his strikeout rate falls back to 27% and people are like, “That’s better, but he’s still a .250 hitter, and I already have Mark Canha.” Finally, when Riley’s forgotten, his strikeout rate drops to 20%, he hits .285 and people are like, “Wow, where did that come from? He’s breaking out late in his career,” and he’s really only 23 years old. That’s obviously a trend I’ve seen happen more than once. So, he might hit .230 this year, what about the power?

Looks like he’s getting jammed there and still drives it the opposite way to the wall. By tee dubs, I’m not basing anything on one video. I’m looking at two! No, I kid. I’m watching a lot of videos and reading what people are saying about a guy. Anyway, here’s what he does when he can pull the ball:

Five tools gets a bad rap because it’s tossed around with hyperbole, but this guy is five tools without the hyperbole. On Prospect Itch’s top 100 fantasy baseball prospects, I watched the top 20 or so, and from what I’ve seen, Riley Greene has earned his 6th overall ranking, while also getting short shrift because the guys in front of him are so good. Guess Riley is Greene with envy. *falls down a staircase, sits up* Tah-dah!

My biggest concern is early Ks, which could mean he hits .210 in spring, and is sent to the minors until June/July. He still is so young. If I knew right now, he was breaking camp in March, I’d give him insanely solid projections for a rookie, but I’m not that optimistic yet. Think we don’t see him for a couple months. For 2022, I’ll give Riley Greene projections of 41/15/47/.247/7 in 306 ABs with a chance for more based on promotion date. He’s the type that I would reach for in early deep leagues, because if he does well in the spring, and breaks camp, he’s a ROY candidate for real and especially fantasy. Speed and power rules!

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The Itch
7 months ago

Solid quote pull and close-reading, Grey!

“Gonna make it tough on us.”

Fuck you talkin about? I know it’s a cool thing to say right now around this issue, but damn, I’d never thought of it in these terms. It’s a PR gaff but we’re so used to hearing this kind of crap it just went in one ear and out the other before now.

‘Make it tough on us. Because the kid is good. And we’re trying to be the opposite of that. Good players cost money, so we’re trying to have as few of those as possible.’ Ffs.

Anyway, back to the Rockies write-up for me. Waiting on that Coors Light train to plow through my office with a big party any minute now.

The Itch
Reply to  The Itch
7 months ago

It’ll be especially maddening in Detroit bc the pitching side of their rebuild is ready to push now.

Toolshed
Toolshed
7 months ago

Luis garcia made it into your top 40. Do I foresee a future schmuck post coming up on him? I can keep him for virtually nothing on one league which is good, but I am on the fence. He should have been shut down months ago. That scares me. He was way past any type of reasonable innings cap. The fact that hou just kept rolling him out there in the reg season was bad, but the playoffs too? Huge mistake. I couldn’t wrong and usually am, but I have a lot of concern.

whatever
whatever
7 months ago

Hi Grey

12 team keeper with obp. A 3 dollar ohtani at UT/P and 11 dollar Yuli gurriel for 7 dollar vlad?

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  whatever
7 months ago

Good thing is we are using fantrax so I can move ohtani in and out of P slot

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Interesting. Is that from a repeatability standpoint? Or gurriel is just not a good enough player to justify downgrade from vlad to yuli?

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Fair enough. He has Walsh at 6 so I was trying to get him to go in that direction. Haha

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Fair enough. He has Walsh at 6 so I was trying to get him to go in that direction. Haha

Sport...again
Sport...again
7 months ago

More questions from my Starting Pitcher research. I think one factor that just using K/9-BB/9 and FIP doesn’t account for if someone values getting 180 innings out of pitchers. For redraft leagues I play in yahoo where 1400 innings is the cap vs. games started. This is advantage in my opinion to using guys you can find cheap who may not throw 180 to 200 innings.

Every time I look at my research Rodon’s name comes up near the top with 10.14 K/9-BB/9 and 2.65 FIP. But he consistently going around 70 to 75 in early expert mocks and ADP projections. Is there an injury concern or is it simply the lack of getting past 130 innings that concern people?

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Sweet! I know alot can change come next February/March but I hope those ADP’s hold steady!

Thank you!

Sport
Sport
7 months ago

Thanks for another great write up! You think Detroit adding Tucker implies any urgency to compete early on? If so, maybe that gets Greene up sooner than later.

Four days ago, in a 14 team dynasty that I just won, I offered Buster Posey and Chris Taylor for Aaron Nola, AND it was accepted. The trade was just completed this morning. Although, most will say Posey retiring is tough luck for the new manager and that’s the breaks in fantasy sports, my conscience is telling me to make it right. I actually felt I won the deal easily before the retirement! So I have Aaron Civale who I am currently shopping. You think Civale/Taylor would have been fair for Nola? Or you think I could possibly get a little more?

Thank you as always.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
7 months ago

Grey!!!

Awesome!!

Signed up for a free, fantrax, 4×4, dynasty, 45-round draft, keeper league with 15 minor league slots and 8 injury slots and 8 bench slots. Draft is 4-hour slow clock, starting this Monday (Nov. 8).

Four=OBP, RC, TB and SB!!
Four=K/9, sv+h, QS and WHIP!!

1. There will be a 30-round draft for the MLB roster. Anyone without a green flag (minors in Fantrax) at draft can be taken in this part.

2. There will be a separate 15-round MiLB prospects draft.

3. NO WAIVER WIRE LIMITS AND NO MAXIMUM INNINGS PITCHED, JUST MINIMUM 1000 IP.

Questions!!!

a. Soto must be #1 overall, right? Maybe because little speed, but 3/8 categories in 1 player is Soto.

b. I pick 8th. Trout in 8 is good or just wait for the best?

c. Any main strategies regarding drafting SP? I’m going to hit Burnes, Woodford and Peralta hard in this format.

d. Prospects strategy.

1. My top 6 prospects with MLB experience
Cruz
Ashby
LoweJ
Brujan
Duran
Baz
Ryan
Meyers

Cruz at 77 is not TOO early right?

2. My top 21 MiLB only experience prospects
Corbin
Abrams
JuRod
Witt
Walker
Jung
Adley
Tork
Miranda
Matos
Noelvi
Riley Greene
Whiteman
Luciano
Casas
Hunter Greene
Lodolo
Cavalli
Vaughn Grissom
Brennen Davis
Royce Lewis
Hedbert Perez
Ji-Hwan Bae
Jake Vogel
Bishop
McCray

Any and all advice WELCOMED!

Cheers,
Ante

Fungazi 2.0
Fungazi 2.0
Reply to  Ante Galic
7 months ago

I wouldn’t pick Trout in a dynasty first round. Assuming Soto and the Jr’s crew are top 4, at 8 you would be looking at getting at least one of Bichette, Devers, Franco, or Tucker.

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Fungazi 2.0
7 months ago

Yeah, I would agree, Soto, and the Juniors go top 4. It’s going to be interesting after that. Fantrax put out a dynasty ranking list a couple weeks ago. If managers go off of it, or the ADP that now shows up, Turner and Bichette won’t make it to 8. Tucker, Ohtani, Ramirez, Devers, Harper, LouRob, Betts, and Wander are all names being considered with Trout. And you never know how managers will select a SP in the top 8!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Ante Galic
7 months ago

I have a few dynasties on fantrax. Yours looks very interesting.

Right at the end of the year, Grey mentioned targeting Houck next year. Maybe a name to add to your list of prospects with MLB experience.

I’m curious to see Grey’s thoughts on Ashby. Seems like a target for redraft leagues, let alone dynasty.

Pick 8 is very interesting. with it being OBP, Harper might be golden. And Jose Ramirez and Devers could also be available you know Grey loves them!

Sorry for the rambling. I have a slow draft in December and I love to dig as much info as possible and peek in Grey’s brain.

How many teams in your new league?

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Sport
7 months ago

More info regarding the pitchers in D.1
pitcher K/9 K/9minusBB/9 fip hardhit%
Ashby 11.29 7.79 3.58 35.8%
Houck 11.35 8.61 2.58 35.1%
Ryan 10.31 8.59 3.43 31.3%
Baz 12.37 10.31 4.07 32.1%

Small sample size for them, especially Baz, but my next homework assignment is to look at minor league stats to see how they compare.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Grey!

Cruz was O’Neil but maybe he’s not great in this format.

Ty for the pitching advice. Will go SP, RP, Bat from 45 onwards. Will need one or all of Hendriks, Hader and Iglesias.

Cheers
Ante