The tinkering is finished for tonight.

At this point in my highway hypnosis of staring at a spreadsheet for two weeks, I’m just hoping to park the car safely.

I’d love to discuss the work with you all, so drop a thought in the comments if that appeals to you.

The only real guide I’d offer to reading these rankings is the top group is fluid. The big two of Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. have built their own little neighborhood. Both should have played in the majors this year. Julio is flat out embarrassing AA pitchers. I maintain my stance that Jerry Dipoto chose foolishly when he decided to push Jarred Kelenic and slam the breaks on Rodriguez, a choice he apparently made sometime back in February and never once revisited throughout the season.

After the top two, there’s not much distance between CJ Abrams at #3 and Adley Rutschman at #8, a group that’s built in part by the injuries to Abrams and Carroll and the tanking of Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit. Can make a pretty strong case that all the healthy players in the elite eight earned a shot at major league pitching this year, but that’s baseball these days. Let’s get romantic about the rest of the list!

Rank Player Position Age 4/1/21 Team ETA
1 Julio Rodriguez OF 20 SEA 2022
2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS 20 KC 2022
3 CJ Abrams SS 20 SD 2022
4 Spencer Torkelson 1B 21 DET 2022
5 Corbin Carroll OF 20 ARI 2023
6 Riley Greene OF 20 DET 2022
7 Brennen Davis OF 21 CHC 2022
8 Adley Rutschman C 23 BAL 2022
9 Vidal Brujan 2B 23 TB 2021
10 Luis Matos OF 19 SF 2022
11 Marco Luciano SS 19 SF 2023
12 Noelvi Marte SS 19 SEA 2022
13 Jose Miranda 3B 23 MIN 2022
14 Triston Casas 3B 21 BOS 2022
15 Francisco Alvarez C 19 NYM 2023
16 Gabriel Moreno C 21 TOR 2022
17 Grayson Rodriguez RHP 21 BAL 2022
18 Hedbert Perez OF 19 MIL 2024
19 Josh Jung 3B 23 TEX 2022
20 Orelvis Martinez 3B 19 TOR 2023
21 Hunter Greene RHP 21 CIN 2022
22 Nick Pratto 1B 22 KC 2022
23 Jordan Walker 3B 18 STL 2024
24 Nick Gonzales 2B 21 PIT 2022
25 Jarren Duran OF 24 BOS 2021
26 Miguel Vargas 3B 21 LAD 2022
27 Zac Veen OF 19 COL 2025
28 Jasson Dominguez OF 18 NYY 2025
29 Eddys Leonard SS 20 LAD 2024
30 Jose Barrero SS 23 CIN 2020
31 Anthony Volpe SS 20 NYY 2023
32 Robert Hassell III OF 19 SD 2024
33 Dustin Harris 3B 21 TEX 2022
34 Nick Yorke 2B 18 BOS 2023
35 Henry Davis C 21 PIT 2023
36 Everson Pereira OF 19 NYY 2023
37 Shane Baz RHP 21 TB 2022
38 Joe Ryan RHP 24 MIN 2021
39 Reid Detmers LHP 21 LAA 2022
40 George Kirby RHP 23 SEA 2022
41 Pedro Leon SS/OF 22 HOU 2022
42 Keibert Ruiz C 22 WAS 2020
43 Oneil Cruz SS 22 PIT 2021
44 Greg Jones SS 23 TB 2023
45 Oswald Peraza SS 20 NYY 2022
46 Kahlil Watson SS 17 MIA 2025
47 MJ Melendez OF,C 22 KC 2022
48 Diego Cartaya C 19 LAD 2025
49 Mark Vientos SS 21 NYM 2023
50 Brett Baty 3B 21 NYM 2022
51 Brayan Rocchio SS 20 CLE 2022
52 Cade Cavalli RHP 22 WSH 2022
53 Nolan Gorman 3B 21 STL 2022
54 Nick Lodolo LHP 23 CIN 2021
55 Gunnar Henderson SS 19 BAL 2023
56 Liover Peguero SS 20 PIT 2022
57 Tyler Soderstrom C/OF 19 OAK 2023
58 Jack Leiter RHP 20 TEX 2022
59 Heriberto Hernandez OF 21 TB 2022
60 Marcelo Mayer SS 18 BOS 2025
61 Eury Perez RHP 18 MIA 2023
62 Brady House 3B 17 WAS 2024
63 Jairo Pomares OF 20 SF 2023
64 MacKenzie Gore LHP 22 SD 2022
65 Ronny Mauricio SS 20 NYM 2023
66 Max Meyer RHP 22 MIA 2022
67 Edward Cabrera RHP 22 MIA 2021
68 Andy Pages OF 20 LAD 2023
69 Bryan De La Cruz OF 24 MIA 2021
70 Royce Lewis SS 21 MIN 2022
71 George Valera OF 20 CLE 2023
72 Sal Frelick OF 20 MIL 2023
73 Jake Meyers OF 24 HOU 2021
74 Reggie Preciado SS 17 CHC 2024
75 Colton Cowser OF 20 BAL 2023
76 Jose Ramos OF 20 LAD 2023
77 Matthew Fraizer OF 22 PIT 2023
78 Aeverson Arteaga SS 18 SF 2024
79 Kevin Alcantara OF 18 CHC 2023
80 Jose Rodriguez SS 19 CHW 2023
81 Roansy Contreras RHP 21 PIT 2022
82 Kristian Robinson OF 20 ARI 2024
83 Diego Castillo 2B 23 PIT 2022
84 Joey Wiemer OF 22 MIL 2023
85 Wilman Diaz SS 17 LAD 2025
86 Jake Eder LHP 22 MIA 2022
87 Jonathan Aranda 2B 22 TB 2022
88 Cody Morris RHP 24 CLE 2022
89 Peyton Battenfield RHP 23 CLE 2023
90 Luis Campusano C 22 SD 2020
91 Michael Harris II OF 20 ATL 2023
92 Alek Thomas OF 20 ARI 2022
93 Kyren Paris SS 19 LAA 2023
94 Bubba Thompson OF 22 TEX 2022
95 Garrett Mitchell OF 22 MIL 2023
96 Gilberto Jimenez OF 20 BOS 2023
97 Landon Knack RHP 23 LAD 2022
98 Jayden Murray RHP 23 TB 2022
99 Josh Lowe OF 23 TB 2021
100 Asa Lacy LHP 21 KC 2022

Thanks for reading!

I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.

  1. toolshed says:
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    I’ve seen Hassell with a lot of helium on some rankings. I am more comfortable with your ranking. Is it simply because of the power? Wilman diaz has tumbled from where you had him before. I haven’t heard much about him. I do know the LAD system is rich and he is in a good spot to develop. Is his slide more due to proximity or was it performance related / do you have other concerns? I remember hearing that he was highly sought after as a guy to get this year. Thanks

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Big fan of Hassell, who carried a lot of helium into the season and has delivered. I’m curious to see what kind of stolen base threat he’ll be outside the three-throw-over rule.

      I think it’s a great buy window on Wilman. Had to drop him a little bc so many have played really well, but he’s way ahead of the age-to-level math and hitting fine for a 17 yo in a complex league.

  2. Ray says:
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    Great job with the rankings, Itch.
    Love the rankings for Vargas and Pages.
    Quite amazing the number of Dodgers on this list. Not complaining as I am a Dodgers fan. Just proves that the Dodgers player dev is 2nd to none.
    Is Bryan de la Cruz the OF on Miami?

    Ray

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Ray! Thought you might like that Pages placement : )

      They really are scary there in LA. Even making monster trades the last two years, they’ve got wave after wave incoming.

      Yeah, on BDLCruz. forgot to update that spot

  3. Jones says:
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    I have to drop one of Joe Gray Jr. or Wiemer. the latter is performing better but Gray has the steals. obviously you ranked one and not the other, do you think it’s close though or not so much? thx

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yeah it’s close

  4. Player X says:
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    Great job with the posts. One of the best parts of Sunday mornings. What do you envision a peak Noelvi Marte season being, something like Starling Marte with a little more power and less speed?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks!

      Lil less speed and contact, more thump, I think

  5. Steve says:
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    A few questions

    Why so low on 2021 high school draftees?

    Volpe at 31 seems low

    Luciano has been AWFUL at high A. Surprised he hasn’t fallen further. How concerned are you with him?

    Thanks!

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      You’d have to be more specific on the draftees. I feel like I’m pretty aggressive on House and Watson.

      Volpe is right next to Eddys Leonard and Robert Hassell, players producing at High A at same age or younger. Where would you put him? List gets pretty stacked up where he’s at now.

      I agree this might be too high on Luciano.

      • Steve says:
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        Sorry, marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler were the high schoolers. Not even sure you had Lawler on your list. MLB.com has Mayer in its top 10.

        • The Itch

          The Itch says:
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          Wow that’s an odd looking list. Lawler is 13 for them despite wrecking his shoulder. He’s just outside my 100 at the moment. Lotta good prospects for the fantasy game.

          That’s the discrepancy to a large extent. They’ve got Nick Yorke ranked 99th. I’ll bet Boston sees these guys a lot closer than that.

          Pipeline’s lists swerve hard in the opposite direction of 5×5 dynasty value. They love pitchers and catchers over there and don’t care about speed or proximity.

          Plus they fold their pre-draft coverage into their lists. Mayer getting a huge boost here bc they loved him coming into the draft. Lotta recency bias there I think bc they spend so much time on the draft. Every year’s new guys leap players who’ve proven a lot more against much better players, like Brennen Davis for instance, who I believe would go ahead of Mayer in a full-minors draft

  6. dude says:
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    Josh Lowe – Power/Speed profile, with high BB rate and K rate in 20’s. On the surface looks like top level production, but the lower ranking has me wondering if there are some holes in his game?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yeah he’s got some holes in the swing that I think will get exposed in the majors. He can adjust at that point tho. He’ll be low here if Tampa makes him a big-side platoon guy next year, but that’s likely his role as long as he’s a Ray.

  7. Philip says:
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    Love the list, Itch. I’ll be using this until next March.

    Another Volpe question. He had one of the best seasons in all of minor league baseball this year, demonstrating strong skills in all facets of the game.

    He’s six months older than Noelvi Marte, and Marco Luciano and outperformed them both, and not by a little bit.

    Why are they so much higher on the list? Historical opinions? Is Volpe maxing out his tools while the international guys are just tapping into theirs?

    Also, will Pedro Leon become a better fantasy player than Jose Barrero?

    Thanks, homey!

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Philip!

      Yeah Volpe’s been amazing. Gap between him and the guys you mention is tiny and fueled by that dream that they’re just getting going, as you say.

      My money is on Barrero there, tho it’s close to a coin toss.

  8. dude says:
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    In my keeper league I have been in rebuild mode and am middleof pack this year with a good shot to compete next year. Who do you see being up early and contributing the most from my young guys?

    Leon, Duran, Tork, Miranda, J. Lowe

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Tork and Miranda should both be up early, and they’ll both provide power in an everyday role.

  9. Kcc26 says:
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    General strategy question. Playing Ottoneu—this year was the league’s first year. I had a few tough injuries and made the early decision to sell and get some cheap young guys. I acquired guys like: $3 Mullins, $3 Bryan Reynolds, $11 teoscar Hernandez, $16 sandy alcantara, $2 houck, $1 cj Abrams and more.

    Also have hoarded every available top prospect (Carroll, Mitchell, hassell, Volpe, alek Thomas, orelvis, nick gonzalez, joe Ryan, Yorke, mayer, Francisco alvarez, matos, Moreno) in addition to already owning wander, brujan and Brennan Davis pre-sale. So— where do I go from here? How many prospects can I reasonably hold going into next year with a 40 man roster? My guess is: try to identify when my competitive window will re-open and make moves to win then (2023 perhaps)?

    I know that was a lot! Thanks

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I think that build is ready to push toward 2023. Might even look like the front runner by the end of 2022.

      I’d start seeking big league and/or upper minors help in exchange for Garrett Mitchell and Alek Thomas.

      • Kcc26 says:
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        Thanks! Looking forward to the offseason!

  10. Jose says:
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    Austin Martin?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Maybe in an OBP league, especially in one of those setups without homers.

      Still a solid real life prospect, tho he’s slugging just .379, which would be pretty close to unplayable in the 15-to-20 team dynasty leagues I build these around.

  11. junior56 says:
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    Great List Itch!

    Where would you slot Bobby Miller? Would he be in the top 150?

    Also I need an OF for the playoffs Was offered Teoscar for Kelenic and Miranda. Would you pull the
    trigger on that deal?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, junior56!

      He’d be just outside the top 150 today but that’s the range for me.

      I think so, yeah, on the deal. Love me some Teoscar, and you only get so many chances to go for the gold.

  12. American Troutfisher says:
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    Jhonkensy Noel? Vinnie Pasquantino? Whereabouts would you say?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Honestly kinda wishing I’d included Noel.

      Pasquantino just missed, too. Both have earned their spot.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        I put Lacy in over Noel, in part because the trade market can be kind of trap when building these lists. I think it tripped me up here. On the one hand, it should be irrelevant and I try to only give it a small piece of my rankings recipe. On the other, I don’t want to be suggesting people go out and flip Lacy for Noel when I believe they could likely get something nice along with Noel if that’s a trade that appeals to them.

        I’m moving Noel up my list right now though as I think it through. Doesn’t matter that he’s 1B only. Dude has never not raked. Gotta start giving him more credit for that.

        • American Troutfisher says:
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          Thanks for the thoughtful reply!

  13. NCPhilly says:
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    I’m in a keeper league where I can keep 3 minor leaguers. I think it is three, might be 2. I have C.J. Abrams, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, and Noelvi Marte, so it will be an interesting decision time this offseason.

    • Scratch says:
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      If your league values speed then you need to keep Abrams. If it was me I’d keep Luciano for his plus plus power, and Abrams for his plus plus speed. I think that all four will hit.

  14. scoboticus says:
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    Thanks Itch!
    Who has more reliable power? Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Casas bc the hit tool allows him to access the power more consistently in games.

  15. NUX says:
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    Hey man!
    Long time, no chitty chat. Hope all is well.
    Thx for the list, as always.

    I just posed this same question to G on today’s article…

    Can I score a Jose Suarez take? Just grabbed him in a deeper dynasty for free. Idea being, I’m just gonna ride out the rest of Sept and see how his next few starts go. He’ll still be Minors eligible for my league if he doesn’t hit 200 Career IPs (he has 166 at the moment). So could be a decent trade candidate over the winter.

    Thoughts?

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Hiya, NUX!

      Always good to see you around!

      I think you might as well see how it goes. When he’s commanding his change-up, he can be a tough AB, and he’s been pretty good all year. Exactly what that team needed. Though of course it didn’t matter.

  16. Harley Earl says:
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    I know you have always been lower on Jordan groshas than most everyone else. But hes not even ranked in the top 100.. How come so low on him now? He’s not even top 100?

    • goodfold2 says:
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      hasn’t had him in all the last few top 100’s

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        Yeah he’s gonna have to change my mind with loud numbers because I just don’t like his swing. Seven HR in 75 games isn’t gonna do the trick for a corner-only bat. He’s certainly held his own at 21 in AA, but he’ll have to do more than that to leap the guys ahead of him. Lotta taking in the minors these days.

  17. goodfold2 says:
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    everson periera, that’s quite a move up (pretty sure nothing till now 36), can’t remember you talking about him much.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      also what’s up with the m.harris and gilberto falls?

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
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        I think the cart got way out ahead of the horse on Harris. Fine player. Doesn’t really have impact tools for our game.

        Gilberto is kind of a chamber thing. He’s never been valued anywhere near where I’ve typically ranked him, so I just backed up a little. Plus I’m a little worried he won’t get on the field for Boston. Not a death knell by any means, but he’s gonna have to find some thump to enter the everyday picture for them.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Yeah he’s been incredible. Yankees keep pushing him and he keeps producing. Was a top 100 ish guy for me a few years ago on mostly hype and mechanics then just didn’t hit. Well, now he’s unstoppable. I’m not sure his season had started last time I did this list.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        was lately able to drop harris and x.edwards (hasn’t seen top 100 in a while, harris falling fast lately here) for eddys L and e.periera just now. 13 teamer 50 max rosters active, a league that got moved to fantrax from yahoo and i upped the rosters to 50 and since some previous owners ignored prospects stash slots i had a slow draft that is all the way up to round 15 (many are filled by now, but many weren’t earlier), it’s gotten VERY slow moving since probably july, but lots of missed picks (me too, had no picks since round 11, just used up 12-13 on these 2). kept gilberto though (OF’ers not owned above list are scarce, far more SS’s but i also have already a lot of those too)

  18. Question says:
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    I stashed a bunch of guys in the last couple weeks: Josh Lowe, MJ Melendez, Andres Munoz, Simeon Woods Richardson, Oswald Peraza, plus I have Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk, Leody Tavares, and Huascar Ynoa. Who are likely to be my trade candidates next March? Who should I hang onto?

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