The tinkering is finished for tonight.
At this point in my highway hypnosis of staring at a spreadsheet for two weeks, I’m just hoping to park the car safely.
I’d love to discuss the work with you all, so drop a thought in the comments if that appeals to you.
The only real guide I’d offer to reading these rankings is the top group is fluid. The big two of Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. have built their own little neighborhood. Both should have played in the majors this year. Julio is flat out embarrassing AA pitchers. I maintain my stance that Jerry Dipoto chose foolishly when he decided to push Jarred Kelenic and slam the breaks on Rodriguez, a choice he apparently made sometime back in February and never once revisited throughout the season.
After the top two, there’s not much distance between CJ Abrams at #3 and Adley Rutschman at #8, a group that’s built in part by the injuries to Abrams and Carroll and the tanking of Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit. Can make a pretty strong case that all the healthy players in the elite eight earned a shot at major league pitching this year, but that’s baseball these days. Let’s get romantic about the rest of the list!
|2||Bobby Witt Jr.||SS||20||KC||2022|
|32||Robert Hassell III||OF||19||SD||2024|
|69||Bryan De La Cruz||OF||24||MIA||2021|
|91||Michael Harris II||OF||20||ATL||2023|
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
I stashed a bunch of guys in the last couple weeks: Josh Lowe, MJ Melendez, Andres Munoz, Simeon Woods Richardson, Oswald Peraza, plus I have Andres Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk, Leody Tavares, and Huascar Ynoa. Who are likely to be my trade candidates next March? Who should I hang onto?
everson periera, that’s quite a move up (pretty sure nothing till now 36), can’t remember you talking about him much.
also what’s up with the m.harris and gilberto falls?
I think the cart got way out ahead of the horse on Harris. Fine player. Doesn’t really have impact tools for our game.
Gilberto is kind of a chamber thing. He’s never been valued anywhere near where I’ve typically ranked him, so I just backed up a little. Plus I’m a little worried he won’t get on the field for Boston. Not a death knell by any means, but he’s gonna have to find some thump to enter the everyday picture for them.
Yeah he’s been incredible. Yankees keep pushing him and he keeps producing. Was a top 100 ish guy for me a few years ago on mostly hype and mechanics then just didn’t hit. Well, now he’s unstoppable. I’m not sure his season had started last time I did this list.
was lately able to drop harris and x.edwards (hasn’t seen top 100 in a while, harris falling fast lately here) for eddys L and e.periera just now. 13 teamer 50 max rosters active, a league that got moved to fantrax from yahoo and i upped the rosters to 50 and since some previous owners ignored prospects stash slots i had a slow draft that is all the way up to round 15 (many are filled by now, but many weren’t earlier), it’s gotten VERY slow moving since probably july, but lots of missed picks (me too, had no picks since round 11, just used up 12-13 on these 2). kept gilberto though (OF’ers not owned above list are scarce, far more SS’s but i also have already a lot of those too)
I know you have always been lower on Jordan groshas than most everyone else. But hes not even ranked in the top 100.. How come so low on him now? He’s not even top 100?
hasn’t had him in all the last few top 100’s
Yeah he’s gonna have to change my mind with loud numbers because I just don’t like his swing. Seven HR in 75 games isn’t gonna do the trick for a corner-only bat. He’s certainly held his own at 21 in AA, but he’ll have to do more than that to leap the guys ahead of him. Lotta taking in the minors these days.
Long time, no chitty chat. Hope all is well.
Thx for the list, as always.
I just posed this same question to G on today’s article…
Can I score a Jose Suarez take? Just grabbed him in a deeper dynasty for free. Idea being, I’m just gonna ride out the rest of Sept and see how his next few starts go. He’ll still be Minors eligible for my league if he doesn’t hit 200 Career IPs (he has 166 at the moment). So could be a decent trade candidate over the winter.
Always good to see you around!
I think you might as well see how it goes. When he’s commanding his change-up, he can be a tough AB, and he’s been pretty good all year. Exactly what that team needed. Though of course it didn’t matter.
Who has more reliable power? Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas?
Casas bc the hit tool allows him to access the power more consistently in games.
I’m in a keeper league where I can keep 3 minor leaguers. I think it is three, might be 2. I have C.J. Abrams, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, and Noelvi Marte, so it will be an interesting decision time this offseason.
If your league values speed then you need to keep Abrams. If it was me I’d keep Luciano for his plus plus power, and Abrams for his plus plus speed. I think that all four will hit.
Jhonkensy Noel? Vinnie Pasquantino? Whereabouts would you say?
Honestly kinda wishing I’d included Noel.
Pasquantino just missed, too. Both have earned their spot.
I put Lacy in over Noel, in part because the trade market can be kind of trap when building these lists. I think it tripped me up here. On the one hand, it should be irrelevant and I try to only give it a small piece of my rankings recipe. On the other, I don’t want to be suggesting people go out and flip Lacy for Noel when I believe they could likely get something nice along with Noel if that’s a trade that appeals to them.
I’m moving Noel up my list right now though as I think it through. Doesn’t matter that he’s 1B only. Dude has never not raked. Gotta start giving him more credit for that.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply!
Great List Itch!
Where would you slot Bobby Miller? Would he be in the top 150?
Also I need an OF for the playoffs Was offered Teoscar for Kelenic and Miranda. Would you pull the
trigger on that deal?
He’d be just outside the top 150 today but that’s the range for me.
I think so, yeah, on the deal. Love me some Teoscar, and you only get so many chances to go for the gold.
Maybe in an OBP league, especially in one of those setups without homers.
Still a solid real life prospect, tho he’s slugging just .379, which would be pretty close to unplayable in the 15-to-20 team dynasty leagues I build these around.
General strategy question. Playing Ottoneu—this year was the league’s first year. I had a few tough injuries and made the early decision to sell and get some cheap young guys. I acquired guys like: $3 Mullins, $3 Bryan Reynolds, $11 teoscar Hernandez, $16 sandy alcantara, $2 houck, $1 cj Abrams and more.
Also have hoarded every available top prospect (Carroll, Mitchell, hassell, Volpe, alek Thomas, orelvis, nick gonzalez, joe Ryan, Yorke, mayer, Francisco alvarez, matos, Moreno) in addition to already owning wander, brujan and Brennan Davis pre-sale. So— where do I go from here? How many prospects can I reasonably hold going into next year with a 40 man roster? My guess is: try to identify when my competitive window will re-open and make moves to win then (2023 perhaps)?
I know that was a lot! Thanks
I think that build is ready to push toward 2023. Might even look like the front runner by the end of 2022.
I’d start seeking big league and/or upper minors help in exchange for Garrett Mitchell and Alek Thomas.
Thanks! Looking forward to the offseason!
In my keeper league I have been in rebuild mode and am middleof pack this year with a good shot to compete next year. Who do you see being up early and contributing the most from my young guys?
Leon, Duran, Tork, Miranda, J. Lowe
Tork and Miranda should both be up early, and they’ll both provide power in an everyday role.
Love the list, Itch. I’ll be using this until next March.
Another Volpe question. He had one of the best seasons in all of minor league baseball this year, demonstrating strong skills in all facets of the game.
He’s six months older than Noelvi Marte, and Marco Luciano and outperformed them both, and not by a little bit.
Why are they so much higher on the list? Historical opinions? Is Volpe maxing out his tools while the international guys are just tapping into theirs?
Also, will Pedro Leon become a better fantasy player than Jose Barrero?
Yeah Volpe’s been amazing. Gap between him and the guys you mention is tiny and fueled by that dream that they’re just getting going, as you say.
My money is on Barrero there, tho it’s close to a coin toss.
Josh Lowe – Power/Speed profile, with high BB rate and K rate in 20’s. On the surface looks like top level production, but the lower ranking has me wondering if there are some holes in his game?
Yeah he’s got some holes in the swing that I think will get exposed in the majors. He can adjust at that point tho. He’ll be low here if Tampa makes him a big-side platoon guy next year, but that’s likely his role as long as he’s a Ray.
A few questions
Why so low on 2021 high school draftees?
Volpe at 31 seems low
Luciano has been AWFUL at high A. Surprised he hasn’t fallen further. How concerned are you with him?
You’d have to be more specific on the draftees. I feel like I’m pretty aggressive on House and Watson.
Volpe is right next to Eddys Leonard and Robert Hassell, players producing at High A at same age or younger. Where would you put him? List gets pretty stacked up where he’s at now.
I agree this might be too high on Luciano.
Sorry, marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler were the high schoolers. Not even sure you had Lawler on your list. MLB.com has Mayer in its top 10.
Wow that’s an odd looking list. Lawler is 13 for them despite wrecking his shoulder. He’s just outside my 100 at the moment. Lotta good prospects for the fantasy game.
That’s the discrepancy to a large extent. They’ve got Nick Yorke ranked 99th. I’ll bet Boston sees these guys a lot closer than that.
Pipeline’s lists swerve hard in the opposite direction of 5×5 dynasty value. They love pitchers and catchers over there and don’t care about speed or proximity.
Plus they fold their pre-draft coverage into their lists. Mayer getting a huge boost here bc they loved him coming into the draft. Lotta recency bias there I think bc they spend so much time on the draft. Every year’s new guys leap players who’ve proven a lot more against much better players, like Brennen Davis for instance, who I believe would go ahead of Mayer in a full-minors draft
Great job with the posts. One of the best parts of Sunday mornings. What do you envision a peak Noelvi Marte season being, something like Starling Marte with a little more power and less speed?
Lil less speed and contact, more thump, I think
I have to drop one of Joe Gray Jr. or Wiemer. the latter is performing better but Gray has the steals. obviously you ranked one and not the other, do you think it’s close though or not so much? thx
Yeah it’s close
Great job with the rankings, Itch.
Love the rankings for Vargas and Pages.
Quite amazing the number of Dodgers on this list. Not complaining as I am a Dodgers fan. Just proves that the Dodgers player dev is 2nd to none.
Is Bryan de la Cruz the OF on Miami?
Thanks, Ray! Thought you might like that Pages placement : )
They really are scary there in LA. Even making monster trades the last two years, they’ve got wave after wave incoming.
Yeah, on BDLCruz. forgot to update that spot
I’ve seen Hassell with a lot of helium on some rankings. I am more comfortable with your ranking. Is it simply because of the power? Wilman diaz has tumbled from where you had him before. I haven’t heard much about him. I do know the LAD system is rich and he is in a good spot to develop. Is his slide more due to proximity or was it performance related / do you have other concerns? I remember hearing that he was highly sought after as a guy to get this year. Thanks
Big fan of Hassell, who carried a lot of helium into the season and has delivered. I’m curious to see what kind of stolen base threat he’ll be outside the three-throw-over rule.
I think it’s a great buy window on Wilman. Had to drop him a little bc so many have played really well, but he’s way ahead of the age-to-level math and hitting fine for a 17 yo in a complex league.