We are in the thick of draft season now and we have real, live draft data to sift through. Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts, and ADP, oh my! It was a busy week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP. We’ve had 14 leagues drafted already! That’s plenty enough to start drawing some conclusions from. We have plenty more leagues to fill up, including some spots in some money leagues which tend to be a little more competitive (including one drafting Friday night that I have joined and will likely be autodrafting, so come steal my money), as well as some legacy league openings (Original Recipe and Crab Army).
PSA: We don’t want to have any leagues get axed, so if you notice your league is not full the day of or the day before the draft, hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know. You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring. Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure.
DRAFT TRENDS
We’ve got 14 leagues’ worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.
THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2023 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…
Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) – There is no surprise here. If anyone was going to pass on Acuna at the 1.01, it would have been during knee news, but that was quickly squashed. Still, one team opted to take Ohtani over Acuna. Maybe a big Ohtani Stan (was it Coolwhip?). If Ohtani was pitching this year, I’m actually on board with that pick, but without pitching, that’s a bit of a head-scratcher.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 14 league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes. If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out. This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 25.57 | 14 | 33 | 19 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 43.5 | 28 | 56 | 28 |
| Nolan Jones | 45.57 | 35 | 65 | 30 |
| Evan Carter | 70.71 | 43 | 100 | 57 |
| Eury Perez | 85.93 | 66 | 111 | 45 |
| Jordan Walker | 105.93 | 91 | 139 | 48 |
| Jackson Chourio | 111.36 | 60 | 149 | 89 |
| Anthony Volpe | 108 | 50 | 155 | 105 |
| Wyatt Langford | 120.86 | 59 | 169 | 110 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 124 | 72 | 149 | 77 |
| Shota Imanaga | 168 | 113 | 205 | 92 |
| Junior Caminero | 195.71 | 150 | 221 | 71 |
It doesn’t seem like Grey’s Elly De La Cruz schmohawk article did much to hurt his ADP. People are so tempted by the upside. I’m out at this price.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is very much the shiny new toy and you’re going to need to draft him in the fourth round if you want him. My dream of a Yamamoto/Nolan Jones 4 / 5 turn will only happen in some leagues it seems.
Evan Carter is getting more and more helium as drafts progress but Wyatt Langford could soon be stealing his thunder and moving ahead of him in ADP. Seems crazy, crazy like a fox.
I’m selling Eury Perez though. I’ve said it a few times, love the kid, so fun to watch, but I’m worried about the innings jump last year. We’ll see.
Grey told the writers if Jordan Walker isn’t on your team by round 7, you’re fired. So, be warned when playing with any of the Writers.
I’m very much in on Jackson Chourio & Shota Imanaga at these prices.
It will be fascinating to watch Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s ADP rise in the coming weeks.
Now, out with new, in with the old:
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 12 | 7 | 15 | 8 |
| Jose Altuve | 35.57 | 27 | 46 | 19 |
| Mike Trout | 47.29 | 32 | 60 | 28 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 57.86 | 32 | 70 | 38 |
| Nolan Arenado | 85.86 | 52 | 101 | 49 |
| Sonny Gray | 124.64 | 83 | 153 | 70 |
| Justin Verlander | 169.14 | 142 | 202 | 60 |
| Charlie Morton | 206.93 | 167 | 239 | 72 |
| J.D. Martinez | 238.29 | 187 | 293 | 106 |
| Max Scherzer | 263.64 | 222 | 293 | 71 |
Freddie Freeman, hard pass. I’m out on Freeman like B_Don is out on Bichette.
I’m normally out on Altuve as well, but I did grab him in my TGFBI draft. I had this conversation on Cards & Categories too. If you are more comfortable going safe early and upside late, than Freeman and Altuve are fine. I had some upside targets later (ONeil Cruz, Jackson Chourio) so Altive fit what I was thinking there.
Mike Trout is…old now, I guess? I’m still buying around this price point though. I haven’t had a shot at him yet, but I will before draft season is over.
Paul Goldschmidt & Nolan Arenado each take an ADP hit this year, Arenado dropping almost 50 spots and Goldy falling a few, but still not to his lowest point in 2021 when his ADP was around 80.
Sonny Gray will likely take a hit now that an IL stint is certain. Of these other old pitchers, I’m still in on Morton at that price, but that’s about it.
Any of these vets you’re nervous about drafting?
If you made it this far, you earn a reward. I told you I was a numbers nerd. Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected. I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often. Next, head down to the spreadsheet below and fill up some more leagues so we have even more data to chew through!
TO JOIN A LEAGUE
Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and voila, you’re in. If you’re not signed up at Fantrax, you need to do that too (it’s free). Damn, that’s too easy. Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference. That’s it! You can join as many leagues as you like. If you accidentally join a league, you can quit a league by going to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom). Now go join some leagues!
Want to be my internet pal? That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss or here: @matttruss.bsky.social
