We’re really winding down on draft season now, with official games starting on Thursday.  This is the last Tuesday without baseball for some time and I’m giddy about it. We’re sitting at 73 Razzball Commenter Leagues right now (12 more than last year!) and 64 of those have drafted.  Only two of our legacy leagues remain undrafted with ECFBL and the ‘Perts League drafting late Wednesday night. Nothing like waiting until the last moment. All of our leagues are full as of now, but if we have any dropouts, make sure you’re following myself (@MattTruss) and/or @Razzball on Twitter.  That tends to be the first place I go to blast out league openings. If you didn’t get in on the fun, well, there’s always next year, don’t procrastinate so much next season! Speaking of fun, I had fun going over the new and improved ADP data by taking a look at the ADPs of all Grey’s Sleepers. Even though the ADP Sheet is Razzball-centric it can still give you some interesting tidbits of information.  So, let’s do some last minute cramming for those final drafts and see what we can see.

Preseason trading has been in full swing.  I tend to like to let my team marinate a little before making any trades, but I’m in so many I had to autodraft a couple this year.  That led me to already making a deal in a league where I had no one projected for double digit SBs. Here are the trades we have had so far:

DATE LEAGUE DETAILS
3/7/2019 RCL #2 Team Crab1106 traded Ken Giles & Randal Grichuk to Team edg88 for Marco Gonzales, Tommy Pham & Forrest Whitley
3/9/2019 RCL #10 Team Docholiday19 traded Jose Altuve & Gary Sanchez to Johnny Utahs for Trea Turner
3/9/2019 RCL #10 Team Docholiday19 traded Garrett Hampson to Team Docholiday19 for Mallex Smith
3/12/2019 RCL #14 Team Domme62480 traded Bryce Harper to Johnny Utahs for Freddie Freeman
3/12/2019 RCL #14 Team Domme62480 traded Noah Syndergaard & Jose Martinez to Johnny Utahs for Shane Bieber & Stephen Piscotty
3/21/2019 RCL #20 Team Dealthegame traded George Sprigner to Team Jbmwlgraphs46 for Michael Conforto
3/22/2019 RCL #30 Team MattTruss traded Jonathan Schoop & Michael Conforto to Team Tango for Dee Gordon & Max Kepler
3/24/2019 RCL #35 Team Marine61 traded Anthony Rizzo to Team ParkBarkley for Nomar Mazara

Nothing too crazy here except for that Rizzo for Mazara trade.  What’s that all about? Yikes.

Had I known there was a world where I could trade Michael Conforto for George Springer, I surely wouldn’t have traded him for Dee Gordon.  Yeesh.

DRAFT TRENDS

We new have 64 leagues worth of data to dig through, so no more small sample sizes.  This week I thought it would be fun to take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers from his sleeper posts this preseason.  Maybe you weren’t around in December and haven’t caught up with all his sleepers.  This will not only serve as a handy guide to Grey’s loves, but also let you know where you need to strike to snipe those luscious sleepers.  I’m also tossing in a chart with change in ADP data. This will show risers and fallers in ADP from two weeks ago compared to this past week.  You’ll notice some sheets in the ADP spreadsheet that note ADP by time frame. Now you can grab the most recent week’s worth of ADP data so you can stay current on the latest trends.  Hope you enjoy.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our 59 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.

PLAYER ADP HI LO DIFF
Shane Bieber 131.47 93 164 71
Eduardo Rodriguez 144.28 105 187 82
Andrew Heaney 199.67 146 300 154
Nick Pivetta 155.38 113 243 130
Joey Lucchesi 152.92 70 216 146
Tyler Glasnow 156.64 101 196 95
Carlos Martinez 146.8 113 285 172
Cedric Mullins 258.92 167 300 133
Willy Adames 231.23 173 300 127
Jonathan Villar 92.66 43 122 79
Max Muncy 97.5 66 120 54
Tyler Austin N/A N/A N/A N/A
Luke Voit 164.13 49 210 161
Austin Meadows 180.52 144 214 70
Daniel Palka 269.25 136 300 164
Ramon Laureano 180.95 138 240 102
Michael Conforto 89.86 54 117 63
Harrison Bader 158.52 121 186 65

I have the sleepers listed in the reverse order that Grey wrote his posts.  He gets a mulligan on C-Mart for the injury and also on Tyler Austin for the Twins duping him.  I know I’ve personally made pitching staffs of entirely sleeper pitchers. Bieber, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucchesi, Glasnow sounds pretty decent to me after starting with 8-10 straight picks of offense and a closer or two.

Villar and Muncy are the most popular of this bunch, with both checking in above pick 100.  Meanwhile, Daniel Palka is both the lowest ranked and the most volatile with him going anywhere from pick 136 to undrafted!

RECENT TRENDS

Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from two weeks ago to this past week.  The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.

PLAYER ADP (3/12-3/18) ADP (3/19-3/25) DIFF
Hunter Strickland 282.13 209.8 72.33
Alex Colome 240.93 207.2 33.73
Ryan Brasier 297.67 265.8 31.87
Cedric Mullins 279.33 251.37 27.97
Ryon Healy 299.73 272.9 26.83
Chris Paddack 234.07 207.43 26.63
Andrew Miller 228.73 203.1 25.63
Domingo Santana 178.2 155.33 22.87
Julio Urias 272.87 251.4 21.47
Mike Foltynewicz 96.4 123.87 -27.47
Willy Adames 213.67 242.43 -28.77
Joey Wendle 204.93 233.73 -28.8
Jesus Luzardo 235.4 264.8 -29.4
Andrew Heaney 190.53 220.03 -29.5
Dellin Betances 235.27 268.87 -33.6
Kevin Gausman 216.13 251.87 -35.73
Carlos Martinez 128.6 164.67 -36.07
Scooter Gennett 92.6 149 -56.4
Matt Olson 92.27 170.87 -78.6
Corey Knebel 137.2 261.57 -124.37

Hunter Strickland is our big winner here.  That has a lot to do with the fact that RCL stats are backdated.  Therefore, you can grab a crappy closer and get a two save lead on your league!  Bonus! Same goes for the helium in Domingo Santana’s ADP. If you were grabbing him anyway, now you grab him a little early and get a head start on HR and RBI.

I blame Paddack’s ADP rise on Ralph.  His ADP the first week of drafts was 271!  There really is no such thing as a sleeper anymore.

Per usual the bottom of this list features the injured, the suspended, the demoted, the unemployed and Dellin Betances.

THE FIRST ROUND

Finally, here’s a fun chart that shows all of the data from the first round of RCL drafts:

Slot >>>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL
Mike Trout 59 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
Mookie Betts 4 57 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64
Jose Ramirez 0 1 32 11 9 4 3 3 0 0 1 0 64
Nolan Arenado 0 0 5 13 3 8 13 5 5 9 3 0 64
Ronald Acuna Jr. 0 0 5 7 10 9 6 8 8 5 3 3 64
Trea Turner 0 0 6 4 11 9 6 6 8 9 3 2 64
J.D. Martinez 0 0 2 7 13 10 8 10 5 4 4 0 63
Christian Yelich 0 0 8 8 7 6 7 6 9 4 6 2 63
Max Scherzer 0 0 0 5 4 9 10 5 10 9 7 2 61
Francisco Lindor 0 0 0 8 7 6 5 12 7 5 2 2 54
Alex Bregman 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 4 8 15 15 53
Bryce Harper 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 7 5 19
Jacob deGrom 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 11 19
Aaron Judge 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 9 15
Manny Machado 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 6 13
Javier Baez 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 3 7
Chris Sale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 6
Jose Altuve 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Trevor Story 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
Gary Sanchez 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Paul Goldschmidt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Freddie Freeman 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Giancarlo Stanton 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Gerrit Cole 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

As of right now Razzballers have five unanimous first round picks in Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trea Turner.  J.D. Martinez and Christian Yelich are right there as well with each missing the first round in one league.

In addition to J.D. and Yelich there are three other consensus first rounders; Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor and Alex Bregman.

Yes, you are seeing that correctly…Gary Sanchez has been taken twice in the first round, once first overall and once second overall.  I think Gary’s mom is playing the RCLs this year!

Hopefully some of this data helps you out these last couple days of drafting.  Check back next week when we’ll have four whole days of real baseball stats to over react to!  It will be awesome!

Want to be my Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss

  1. MattH says:
    (link)

    12 more leagues than last year. That’s great. Playing ADP chicken with the RCL-ADP sheet is risky business. I was scrambling several times last weekend after waiting too long on guys. You missed Zac Rosscup. He’s flying up the ADP! Good work, Truss.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      ROSSCUP! FREE WIN!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Haha

  2. Matty says:
    (link)

    Wow. Two people are super high on Gary Sanchez. I’d be interested to see the balance of their teams.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Sánchez, Gary C
      Cabrera, Miguel 1B
      Gordon, Dee 2B,OF
      Suárez, Eugenio 3B
      Seager, Corey SS
      Devers, Rafael 3B
      Moncada, Yoán 2B
      Benintendi, Andrew OF
      Ozuna, Marcell OF
      Bradley Jr., Jackie OF
      Happ, Ian 3B,OF
      Meadows, Austin OF
      Grichuk, Randal OF
      Olson, Matt BN

      and

      Sánchez, Gary C
      Rizzo, Anthony 1B
      Albies, Ozzie 2B
      Sanó, Miguel 3B
      Taylor, Chris SS,OF
      Olson, Matt 1B
      Gordon, Dee 2B,OF
      Bauers, Jake 1B,OF
      Dickerson, Corey OF
      Gallo, Joey 1B,OF
      Tucker, Kyle OF
      Renfroe, Hunter OF
      Realmuto, J.T. C
      Smoak, Justin BN
      Ohtani, Shohei BN

      Sooo, not the best of squads

      • srpst23 says:
        (link)

        Gottal love the 2 catchers in a one catcher league!

  3. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Interesting that Jo-Ram has gone in the top 5 over 50 times, Scherzer in the first round 60 times, and Baez in the entire first round only 7 times. This tells me that either the readers don’t actually read Grey’s rankings or completely ignore it. And this validates my position that the majority of them don’t know what the hell they’re doing!

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Haha, well said Cram!

      • johnnyhobbes says:
        (link)

        So….. “Come play in the RCL while we berate you as a dumb fuck” is the business plan ?

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          Naw man, you do you, no one is name calling. I’ll call out questionable trades and weird draft picks (Like Gary Sanchez in the first round) and stuff like that, but that’s about it. It’s all in good fun man, after all, it is called RAZZball. If you can’t take a little razzing than you are taking yourself too seriously.

          • johnnyhobbes says:
            (link)

            you right my bad

  4. Florida Cracker says:
    (link)

    I know what you mean. I forgot to draft stolen bases in DFS. Lucky I grabbed Kiermair in the 24th round or I’d really be in trouble and he’ll probably get hurt sometime during the season.

  5. hatrikhawk says:
    (link)

    First Year subscribing and playing in RCLs and the drafts were great for my home league prep. I also had the fortune of being in 2 of the drafts that started late, #1 and #35 (Sanchez went 2nd), I blame the Vietnamese water spaghetti. As an aside to your adp numbers above, in RCL 61 Sale dropped to 29th and I was dumbfounded. I was interested in the lowest spot that the top end starters went, outside of Kershaw. Is that easily attainable info?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      There is the “LOW” column for everyone, so you can see the lowest spot each of the starters you are interested in were drafted. Is that what you’re looking for?

Comments are closed.