First off, we’re taking me out of the equation…[removes earth skin, ghost-like figure sits in spinning office chair, saying, “Wheee…” Sees another ghost, “Oh, wow, you got a bedsheet? The eye-holes are so perfectly cut! Damn, and a mouth hole? That’s amazing. Hey, where’d you get that bedsheet? Is there like a ghost bedsheet check-in desk where you can get your own bedsheet? You’re a dead Klansman? Oh, I see,” awkwardly moves spinning chair away from dead Klansman] …So, taking me out of the equation, but not taking off earth skin, has me looking at Steamer’s projections. Their Rafael Devers projections are 93/31/92/.270/4 in 560 ABs. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections have him at 97/32/100/.269/4 in 598 ABs. Stepping myself back in, I have him projected for 95/27/89/.277/5 in 542 ABs. His stats last year were 87/28/83/.272/3 in 525 ABs. Wait it gets even more boring! His 2nd half stats were 25/5/22/.244/1 in 209 ABs. Yo, serious question, is Rafael Devers now Ty France? I see London, I see Ty France, I see Rafael Devers and he looks like Ty France. Call him Rafael Depardieu. Put him on a bicycle drunk wearing a beret with a quiver of baguettes, and make stinky-stinky-poo-poo face as he smells his own armpits to see if it’s him who smells. It is. Rafael LePew that [waving smell away] 2nd half of the season. Sure, there’s a shoulder injury that was hampering him, so…[finger to earbud]…I’m being told we don’t know if his shoulder is good now. “Can Rafael Devers only face Gerrit Cole?” Sorry, I’m not asking you, I’m asking who this is in my earbud. Hello! Earbud! So, what can we expect from Rafael Devers for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Something happens with fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) where they repeatedly rank and draft a specific player at the same spot (a lifetime ADP? Someone should come up with that concept.) and since the player is always drafted and ranked there, they are drafted there even when they shouldn’t be. Last year on the Player Rater, Rafael Devers was the 6th best 3rd baseman, and 53rd overall. He’s currently being drafted and ranked around 30th overall, as he always is. I’d contend (for the Light-Light-Light Heavyweight Title) that Devers shouldn’t even be drafted around 53rd overall, as he ended last year, because of how bad his 2nd half was, but that would at least make more sense. The 2nd round where he is being drafted? Stop being daft with your draft. Symmetry points!
In his 64 ABs in September, Rafael Devers’s Hard Contact was 22.7%. Would be about the 4th worst in baseball if over the course of the year, and same as Luis Arraez. Look at his exit velocities by month:
Sure, sure, I know! Buh-buh-buh-buh-but his shoulder was bothering him so he’s fine now. Again: How do you know that to be the case? Listen, if he were the type to have a 30/20/.300 profile normally and he could offset some of the shoulder-is-still-hurting risk, then I’d be big whooping here. I’d be Mr. Big Whoop big whooping all the way to the bank if he could have 20 steals, as well. But if he does have a 27/.270 season with no speed, because he has no real speed, then what are you drafting as your 2nd rounder? Nolan Arenado? Isaac Paredes? A poor man’s Burger? Is Devers an em-effing White Castle square-burger? ACKSUALLY, I like White Castle, and I don’t like Rafael Devers.
