The front offices of Boston and St. Louis have been on the phone with each other (or texting back and forth) all offseason, culminating in two big trades so far.
Around Thanksgiving, the teams agreed to swap RHP Sonny Gray (36) along with $20 million for RHP Richard Fitts (26) and LHP Brandon Clarke (22, A+).
Gray should play as a known quantity, and it sounds like he’s eager to pitch in the AL East again. “It’s easy to go to a place where it’s easy to hate the Yankees,” he said at this introductory press conference, instantly endearing himself to a new fanbase. He also restructured his contract to turn a guaranteed year into a mutual option that Boston can refuse for a $10 million payout. With the Cardinals covering $20 million, Gray will cost $11 million for the Red Sox in 2026. If he’s good for them, Boston can bring him back next year for $30 million at a $25 million luxury tax hit.
Cardinals RHP Richard Fitts (26) allowed 11 home runs in just 45 major league innings in 2025, recording a 5.00 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He throws pretty hard (95.7 mph) and gets batters to chase (32.8%), but it seems like they’re chasing because they see the ball really well against him and think they can wallop just about everything he throws. I’m not optimistic about his chances in St. Louis, particularly for our purposes. He might eat enough innings to earn his keep in the NL Central, but the ratios are unlikely to help us.
Cardinals LHP Brandon Clarke (22, A+) is most of what the money’s for in this deal. They’re paying quite a bit to get him (and Fitts) in Gray plus the $20 million, and while they didn’t want to pay Gray during a retooling cycle, they clearly believe in Clarke and his dynamite stuff at 6’4” 220 pounds from the left side. He struck out 60 batters in just 38 innings across Low-A and High-A on the strength of a double-plus fastball-slider combo. He’ll be coming up alongside fifth overall pick LHP Liam Doyle, creating some potential nightmare weekends for left-handed minor league hitters. Heck, for all minor league hitters. If the club can actualize both of those guys, look out.
When the next Holiday season came around, Craig Breslow and Chaim Bloom got together again, swapping 1B Willson Contreras for RHP Hunter Dobbins, RHP Yhoiker Fajardo and RHP Blake Aita. It makes sense that Bloom should know Boston’s system pretty well, having had a major hand in building it up until September of 2023.
The Contreras piece of this is pretty cut and dry. He should have an excellent couple of seasons in that setting, surrounded by hitters who make things happen. I’m not sure what to make of Triston Casas, except to say that he’s probably on the trade block in real life and in your leagues. I’m not buying at the moment.
I will be buying Cardinals RHP Kyle Leahy (28), who’s expected to join the rotation after posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in 88 innings in 2025. At 6’5” 225 pounds with 96th percentile extension, he’ll be the big winner in this deal if he can approximate those outcomes as a starter, especially in terms of his personal finances and perhaps for ours.
Cardinals RHP Hunter Dobbins (26) enjoyed an excellent 2024 across Double-A and Triple-A, allowing just two home runs in 125.2 innings along with a 3.08 ERA. It’s pretty tough to fake that kind of home run suppression in the higher minors, and Dobbins was able to survive the majors for 61 innings (11 starts) in 2025 largely due to that skill in creating weak contact. He picked up four wins and just one loss before a torn ACL in his right knee ended his season in July and built a little extra uncertainty into his pricing this winter. It’s kind of hard to grade this trade for St. Louis because I think they have extra bats that need to play and not much incentive to pay $40 million for a first baseman over the next two seasons.
Cardinals RHP Blake Aita (22, A+) is geared toward generating weak contact, which has worked well enough in college and the lower minors. In 115.1 innings across Low-A and High-A, he recorded a 1.05 WHIP and 3.98 ERA across 23 outings (19 starts). He struck out 21.4 percent of the batters he saw against a 6.5 percent walk rate. He’s shown aptitude for spin and currently leans heavily on a plus slider but was lean thing the Sawx trademark cutter and has some upside if can separate the slider and cutter and spot the chase up along with adding a little velocity on his 6’4” 215 pound frame. Nothing to write home about but not a bad third piece in a deal like this.
Cardinals RHP Yhoiker Fajardo (19, A) is what the money’s for in this deal, and I think he’s well worth it. He’s got impressive command of a nasty slider and a fastball with plus run that he spots well up in the zone. He’s even got a better changeup than a 19 year old should. It added up to a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 72 innings spread between the complex league and Low-A. The balance and power throughout his delivery suggests a lot of upside beyond what’s already an impressive arsenal.
Thanks for reading!
Thoughts on Reid Detmers going back into the rotation…thank you happy holidays