Prospect News: Rankings Redux: Eury and the Henderson
In a recent post, I found myself saying Milwaukee OF Jackson Chourio was on track to be a top 50 prospect by mid-season, which got me thinking, as I should be this time of year, about updating the top 100 list.
I made a trade offer for Baltimore SS Gunnar Henderson this week in the 20-team Highlander Dynasty League. Was just Arizona DH Seth Beer straight up, but that league is weird, with a double utility spot. Deepest hitting set-up I’ve ever played, unless I ran that math wrong way back when I half-sprinted through it just to create some context. It’s a half-step or so deeper than the Razz30, and the full-week freeze of lineups adds another wrinkle I haven’t played with a whole lot in a superdeep dynasty format.
Also went a little overboard in trying to secure Colorado SS Ezequiel Tovar this week.
Anyway the natural first question for most readers at this point is who’s rising the fastest, like Chourio and Tovar. Or maybe that’s just the most enjoyable question because its opposite might be equally immediate to most fantasy players: who’s feeling that baseball gravity?
I tend to avoid the second question, if I’m honest. Players lose mind-share of course but it happens kind of quietly in the back of my mind as I build a list. Herbert Perez, is a recent player I can recall who I never really soured on in any real way. The evidence at present just didn’t support some trust-based ranking. But I’ll try to be proactive on that front and chronicle it here as I work through the list. If it’s a little dry or boring in the end, I’m hoping you just fast-forward a bit because that’s way easier with reading than it is on, say, HBOMAX.
So who’s rising as I start building a rankings reshuffle?
Milwaukee OF Jackson Chourio. I don’t have anything to add, just resetting all our eyes a bit.
Colorado SS Ezequiel Tovar. On Thursday May 12, I traded Nick Pratto, Travis Demeritte and Eddys Leonard for Tovar in a 15-team dynasty where I just needed to consolidate somehow with guys coming off the IL and my insatiable need to add players, especially Mets OF Alex Ramirez this time around.
Week one dreamboat Boston OF Ceddanne Rafeala has seven home runs and nine steals in 28 games, which works pretty well along with a .295 batting average for a 21-year-old in High-A. Safely within the top 100 today.
Miami RHP Bryan Hoeing might not crack the top hundred, but hot dang he’s just devouring impressive innings this season and looks intriguing to me.
Cubs OF Nelson Velazquez looked like a major leaguer to my eyes on Friday night in Des Moines, knocking in the game winning run with a solid single after hitting the ball hard all over the park all night long. I think he’s got a strong case for the late hundred.
Cleveland RHP Daniel Espino was on the fast track to being baseball’s top pitching prospect before he sidestepped to the injured list. Always hard to rank a beleaguered arm, but Espino was so nasty when he was right that he’ll hold serve at a minimum.
Miami RHP Eury Perez is 6’8” 220 lb 19-year-old rocking a 31.6% K-BB rate in High-A. Probably a top ten guy at the moment.
Houston SS Jeremy Peña is under the limit for another few games. How high is too high for his graduation spot? Oh and Happy Graduation Day if that applies to you this weekend! I think it’s tough to push him outside the top fifteen or so.
San Diego LHP MacKenzie Gore and Seattle RHP George Kirby are both climbing. Kirby didn’t have much mountain left above him.
I’m not sure what to make of Pittsburgh OF Captain Jack Suwinski, but he ‘s pairing plus defense with explosive offense in an era when more rookies are struggling, so I’m in for now to say the least. If I had to divvy it up today, I suspect he’d make the 100. Yes, I think the whole Johnny Depp redemption tour helps Suwinski’s dynasty stock, in case you were wondering.
If you’ve been around a minute, you might suspect I’m excited to see Pittsburgh SS Liover Peguero hitting .324 with 3 HR and 7 SB across 27 AA games, and you’d be right. He won’t turn 22 until New Year’s Eve.
St. Louis 1B Juan Yepez is counting those base hits like the Martians do on Sesame Street when they “Yep!” their way through the number of the day. Fangraphs came out with a downbeat report on him this week, doubling down on what may make sense in a non-fantasy realm, spread across the long term, but I think they’re just plain short on Yepez’s long-term potential. Fantasy players are probably in agreement at the moment, but you might want to send an offer or two out for him in case his team reads a lot of that site. For my money, he’s looking like a 1B,3B,OF eligible guy who’s easily playable at each spot for our game.
Is Minnesota SS Royce Lewis a top 25 guy again? Oh yeah, I’d say so. Give him a little up-arrow carrot while you’re at it.
Angels RHP Chase Silseth debuted with six shutout innings against Oakland, who is not great but did just rock some rookie Tigers. He’s done only good things so far in 2022 and belongs on a roster in just about any sized dynasty league.
I’m gonna drop a weirdo sidebar in here, but please if you want to win your dynasty leagues be the team that responds to trade offers. Reject them, if you don’t like them. Counter or don’t. Reply in the message section why you’re rejecting it or don’t. I suspect a lot of slow-moving dynasty players don’t realize how many options they’re leaving on the table just by making the game out to be more than it is. Spin the wheel or don’t. You’ll make some bad calls. But every day has value. Real shizz moves around in the standings every day. Don’t just sit on offers for half a week. Value your trade partner’s time and your own. It’s more fun if you’re getting more options along the way than the other teams because you move fast and pay attention.
Also, play at your own pace, which I realize contradicts everything I just wrote. All I’m saying is you shouldn’t make it so serious in my opinion, and don’t get down bad just cuz one thing goes awry. Just keep swimming. Forget everything. Remember everything. Become nothing. Become everything. Trade everyone. Value every day as if it’s the only day.
Whew . . . wtf just happened . . . think I had a blood-rush-brain moment there, sorry.
Or maybe a brain freeze. We are about to discuss who’s freezing their way down the lists, often through no fault of their own.
Detroit OF Riley Greene, like I said: through no real fault of his own. Now that the team has proven itself atrocious on the field, I worry about Riley’s timeline. Willi Castro looks pretty good in center, too.
Cincinnati RHP Hunter Greene is kind of a red light in tight-ratio formats, to go with the color-scheme theme, but I’m actually all about giving the green light to most attempts at acquiring Hunter Greene on the dip. I reckon he’ll make the pirates walk the plank today.
UPDATE: Yarrrrrrrrrrrrr. 7.1 no-hit innings with 9 strikeouts. But did the Pirates really have to walk the plank if they won the game? I mean, they have the ship now, right? Having won the day?
San Diego SS CJ Abrams threw some paint on his Buy window by homering twice in his AAA debut, but you never know what someone’s feeling after their expectations get involved. Might be worth your time to send an offer in Abrams’ direction.
Seattle RHP Matt Brash lost control of his double-plus stuff and fell like sands through the hourglass; these are the days of our lives.
Seattle OF Jarred Kelenic: Not a prospect anymore but relevant to our conversations nonetheless. I don’t know how else to say this except to be blunt: don’t buy the dip on this one unless we’re talking about faab stuff. I still see some crazy deals built around this Twitter-star.
UPDATE: Saw Kelenic traded about ten hours after this went to post (along with Kyle Manzardo) for . . . drumroll . . . Christian Yelich and Craig Kimbrel. It’s a 20-team saves/holds league, so there’s that . . . I guess. Blink twice if you need help. Someone was in the comments a few weeks ago dead set on dealing Yordan Alvarez to get Kelenic. Be careful out there, dear reader.
By no means is either list exhaustive here. I’m hoping you’ll chip in with a name or two in the comments section and sort of talk through Razzball’s impending prospect reshuffle with me.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Yo Itch! Hope all is well with you brother. I’m catching up with this week’s post a little later than I normally do and haven’t written up a nice long diatribe for ya in a while, so here we go…
Even more excited to see where Churrio lands now that I read this post this AM. Just scooped him in a few places a week or so ago. But seems like I missed the boat on Ceddanne in all leagues, which is looking right now like a fun guy to have a share of, oh well, can’t land them all. Curious to see which is higher in the next update.
Some other random names I’m rostering and hoping to see where or if they land on the update. Clearly was using your lists during this winter’s startup draft… Vinny P, Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Corbin Carroll, Luis Matos, Everson Pereira, Roansy Contreras
I saw your note about chipping in names, here’s some I’m interested in. Not looking for you to have to comment on all of these but I guess looking for maybe one that you might feel is your fav to buy and one to sell?:
Traded some randomly rostered player recently that I was going to have to cut for Peyton Burdick. I know he kinda just missed the most recent Marlins update during the offseason. And with BDe La Cruz getting a share of ABs recently, is that OF too crowded to think we’ll see Burdick up in 2022 at any point? He seems like he’s behind a handful of other OFs in the system too, like Bleday and so forth? I don’t think I’m down with waiting around for a low batting average player. If you can’t tell, I’m looking for a reason to drop him. Do you like him more than some of the other names on that list of 12 above though?
Any word on why Luis Matos hasn’t played in two weeks? Doesn’t look like he’s on the IL? Also curious if he’s just been unlucky or if it’s a lot of soft contact in his slow start.
I’ll see what I can find. Don’t know anything off the top of my head, but I am guessing it’s an issue of his swing-heavy approach being exposed against better spin.
Hey, what do you think about T.Casas problems against lefties? Is he only a strongside platoon at 1B or could he be an everyday player…
Too young to know, reps and years -wise. I’ve never been as high as the true believers on Casas’ futures, but I like his ability to handle lefties in the long run.
League context: 12 team, roto, 6 player keep forever … for the sake of this post, I’m rocking with Bichette, Acuna, Robert, Ohtani, Tucker and Witt. Also have some nice arms like Freddy P, McClanahan, Musgrove and others. We have 6 man bench and two IR spots. My queries are as follows;
A) Currently sitting on Kelanic and Miranda (bench bats) … do you think I would regret dropping one or both of them? I could use the roster spots to some hot ‘shmotatoing’
B) Love me some prospects, is Corbin Carroll worth rostering in a league such as this? Is it possible we see him this year? Could he be ‘next’ years Bobby Witt or Ju-Rod?
C) Speaking of my dude, Bobby Witt, what’s your expert opinion/assessment of his first 30 games as a pro?
Thanks ‘The Itch’, much respect for all that you do!
Good sir Itch! How solid does your belief in Miranda remain? In my 30 team dynasty I just sold high on Merrill Kelly for a straight up swap. Curious for your thoughts.
How’s it goin, Moon Shots!?
Not real solid. I’m afraid the fooly balls impact a high-fly back-spin guy like Miranda more than most. I still like that deal. Reasonable price.
Itch, you’re the greatest.
Where are you at on Andrew Painter? He’s a free agent in my Ottoneu leagues, but the natives at the bottom of the standings seem restless and I fear the time to sneak snag him for $1 might be peaking soon.
Also, Tovar, Orelvis, Lawlar and Gunnar Henderson are all available in one league. Who should I hitch my wagon to?
I fought the law a little bit in FYPD season, and I gotta be honest, the law won.
I’ll go Lawlar, then Tovar-Hendo in a flip-flop photo finish that could change on a given day
Totally agreed on Painter. Better ask Sherwin-Williams if you can stop in yet tonight on that one : )
Thanks, man! I really admire your work. Looking forward to the midseason list!
Which 2 of these dudes to drop & make room for Chourio?
Those 10 fill my NA spots and I have Duran on bench.
Thanks in advance for the advice brother!
That team is loaded.
I kinda think you’re at capacity.
I might rank Chourio over one/some of these dudes before press day, but nothing jumps out to me. I’ve never been real in on Volpe, but he’s so far ahead of Chourio on paper that it doesn’t really wash to jump him. Maybe you could package him with a big leaguer for an upgrade on that side then pick up Chourio when the spot opened up?
Thanks for another great writeup. Thoughts on Pete Crow-Armstrong. Have him on a couple dynasty teams that I took over.
Yeah he’s another early flier up the lists.
Just saw him get traded for Khalil Watson in the Highlander and thought, yeah, top 25 for PCA feels about right.
Interesting in that three of the players mentioned above have been asked for in a trade offer.
Silseth Gore Kirby Torkelson for McClanahan and J. Bell ?
Good deal here.
I like the side where I trade Torkelson. 1B rankings are a tough road to hoe.
I like Bell and Sugar Shane a lot.
Thanks, deal got done, but I added Bellinger and Yorke, but I kept Kirby.
Silseth Gore Yorke Torkelson and Belly for McClanahan and J. Bell.
Satisfied with the result, and looking forward to your mid season or thereabouts rankings!!
You’re the best, Itch! Good stuff (even though you didn’t mention any of my guys).
Are any of these guys going to be all stars: Wiemer, E. Ruiz, L. Garcia, Winn, Choirio?
I know that’s a stupid question, but I’m wondering who I should keep or who I should trade. I need to move one or two of them. I’m leaning towards trading garcia and Winn.
Also, in a 20 team dynasty are you moving Kirilloff or Franimal?
Thanks, Philip!! (I’m try to get some next time : )
All Stars in the baseball sense, I like Winn’s chances bc fame and fanbase and general fun-to-watch factor.
Fantasy sense, I’ll go with Ruiz, Winn and Chourio with the best chance at roto-stardom.
Not a stupid question at all. Kind of the only question, really, after a fashion, if you want to cut it fine.
Yeah I was never really on Kirilloff but would be ready to move him if I had been.
I think I’m moving Franimal for the right price, but I don’t want to sell low. Cleveland should have a little burst of offense when they get some extended weather and covid-free games, if such a thing can happen. Looked like Franny was heating up when the clubhouse started going viral.
Think Meyer comes up sooner than later with Luzardo on the shelf?
Yeah I hope so, though I’ll bet they go with Cabrera next.
Recently promoted SPs, who do you prefer? Pepiot or Silseth?
Great Article Itch!
I missed out on Tovar!
a) Where does Ceddanne end up defensively?
b) What’s Graceffo ceiling? Will fastball play in the MLB?
c) Does Noah Song finally get a chance to pitch in 2022?
Yeah I kinda missed on Tovar, too. People had to buy him in most leagues this off-season or early this year, and the evidence at the time didn’t all point to supporting a heavy investment. Good eye-test buy for those who made it.
a) wherever they need him, I think. Brujan made a crazy play in right field the other day, and that’s not his position, really. I think Rafaela offers similar value as a plug-and-play defender.
b) Team photo for best fantasy pitching prospect in the game, then the same type of ceiling those guys have because b) yes, I think the heat will cook.
c) Good catch in the news there! Song has applied and all we know now is, we’ll see. I’ll bet he’s pitching by the off-season program if that’s what he wants to do.
Thanks again! Hope you have a good week!
Hey Itch – I’ll have a decision to make at some point between Michael Busch, Brett Baty and Jordan Walker. How would you rank those three? My main concern with Walker is that he is forced to move off third due to Nolan Arenado blocking his path. As a corner outfielder, if that is where he lands, I think he loses value.
Thanks as always!!
Hey MJ888 —
Baty and Busch
I see your point on Walker but also think he might gain value in the outfield. Depends on the league a little bit, but I play in several where outfield is just as tough as third. I do think his path looks fairly blocked at the moment, but something tends to clear up when the time is right.
Itch, thoughts on Adell? Time to cut him loose or buy the major dip? As a bonus question if possible, do you feel he might get traded?
Thanks as always!
What up, Jolt!?
Much more into buying an Adell dip than a Kelenic dip. Price is lower. Upside is higher. Player is good enough to be dangerous in the box already.
Have you seen what Esteury Ruiz is up to? 350/500/590 with 22SB and 5HR? K rate and BB rate both in the mid teens…that is absurd for a guy who was dropping off top 100 lists and Fangraphs’ top Padres prospects list entirely.
He has to be close to a top fantasy prospect in the high minors after Carroll, Abrams, Gorman and Lowe
(among hitters, specifically)
Yeah he’s a genuine problem and definite Top 100 guy at the moment in my opinion. The Padres are among the sink-or-swimmiest organizations in baseball, so when a guy suddenly clicks something into place there, I’m into it. He might’ve figured that out on his own.
I think he’s closer to Gorman and Lowe than Carroll or Abrams, but I agree he’s still pretty quiet for what he’s doing. The big tools were always present. Fun to see them actualizing.
As always….thanks for the great stuff!
Looking to get your thoughts on a deal that was offered to me.
6×6 OBP and DT
6×6 QS, Holds and Saves are sep cats
I give J Walsh….. Receive N Lowe and R Detmers
Id drop G Hampson.
Thanks, Joe Buckyourself!
I want the Walsh side there.
I think big power and R+RBI are going to be tough to come by, and I’m worried about Lowe in that park with this baseball.
Itch, between Tovar and Henderson, who do you like better. They both seem to be boosting their stock this year, and curious which one your leaning towards.
Tovar for me. Rockies plus defense plus speed . . . I like the player a little better, too, but the environmental factors really matter in this case.
Hey Man, 12 team, H2H, ROS-Sonny Gray or Jose Berrios? thanks.
Berrios. He’s lost it for stretches in the past but tends to find his way. Good coaching there in Toronto, too. I like em both the rest of the way.
Great stuff! Thoughts on Bubba Thompson, does he make an impact this year?
He could. I do not love the 1.7 percent walk rate, but he’s hitting .325 with 17 steals in 26 games. Only been caught once.
I suspect he’ll get a chance later this year if he starts swinging less.
Hedbert Perez….ugh…not looking for him right now….so many Ks. Can he turn it around?
Hi Itch, great article as usual! I have a quick question. I’m in a 12 team H2H 10×9 keeper league (40 man rosters—32 MLB and 8 MiLB). No $ or contracts. Hitting categories are: R H HR RBI SB BB K TB AVG OPS and pitching categories are: IP W QS SV+HLD HR K/9 K/BB ERA WHIP. I received an offer where I trade away Juan Yepez and a 3rd round pick in next year’s FYPD draft for Eduardo Rodriguez and a 5th round pick in next year’s FYPD draft (annual 12-round draft). I want to improve my team’s pitching (currently I have Buehler, F. Peralta, Sandoval, Skubal, J. Ryan, Mikolas, Lorenzen, Mize). However, I don’t want to trade away a potentially good young hitting prospect in Yepez. I know Yepez’s playing time is unknown (although he’s played every game since he’s been called up). My current 1B/CI situation is Tellez, N. Lowe, Naylor and Yepez. Is this a no-brainer deal? As in, should I accept ERod and run, or should I hold Yepez and hope for the best? I’m torn here because while I have zero reason to trade away Yepez (hoping he can keep this level of production up albeit with a more normal BABIP), I’m tempted to acquire ERod (even though he’s been subpar so far). However, the old dynasty adage is to take the bat over the arm. Interested in your thoughts. Which side would you want in a keep forever league?
Crystal ball for Max Meyers’ eta? Grayson?
Meyer = June 15
Grayson = ????? but probably the same range
Wow holly s… deep thoughts in that middle of the article!!
Now about Dinasty….what to do about K Robinson? Cannot find any update on his legal status(not playing yet) and holding the roster spot it’s getting heavier every day…hold or cut the bait for someone like Chourio, Rafeala or even Jack sparrow suwuinsky?
Same on Robinson applies to C.Colmenarez, an expensive pick with no data to justify a roster spot so far…any thoughts about him?
Good stuff Itch! Please rank these young pitchers long term: Baz, Espino, Meyer. Also, what are your thoughts on Atlanta’s Schuster? Thanks
I don’t really see enough daylight between those three that I strong preferences, but I’ll lay em just how you have em here at the moment.
Shuster looks great! Good time to scoop him up. Has rediscovered the command and velocity that made him a first round pick and looks ready for AAA.
Yeah just an odd lull in fantasy baseball responsiveness as much as anything, and I suspect one key factor here is people being in too many leagues to care much about a given day in any one of them. I know I’ll have to cut a league or several this year.
I would drop K-Rob for Chourio or Rafaelo but not Captain Jack at the moment.
Colmenarez, I do think I’d drop him for Sparrow.