A Scottsdale Surprise might sound like something you’d find listed in the Urban Dictionary, but it’s really just the last two teams in our Arizona Fall League preview series. Some of the best prospects in baseball will be getting their extra reps in this fall. Each team in the majors is represented across the six Arizona Fall League teams and we’ve already covered a few of the fantasy relevant prospects on Mesa, Glendale, Salt River, and Peoria. You can follow the links at the end of this post to view those. Stats included are the cumulative stats for 2014 across all minor league levels. Strong farm systems like the Pirates and Red Sox are represented on the Scottsdale and Surprise rosters, so let’s take a look at some fantasy prospects from each to put a bow on this thing.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Josh Bell, OF | PIT

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
465 58 138 22 4 9 59 7.1% 11.8% 9 5 .325 .375 .459

Bell checked in at #35 in Baseball America’s midseason top 50 rankings and is one of the best fantasy prospects in a strong Pirates’ system. At only 22 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder is already showing solid power and the ability to hit for average. He didn’t go yard after his promotion to Double-A, but he still showed a good eye at the plate and his power numbers should only improve in time. It looks like he’ll get some reps at first base in the AFL and he’ll likely return to Double-A for the start of 2015.

Brandon Nimmo, OF | NYM

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
558 97 130 21 9 10 51 15.4% 18.8% 14 4 .278 .394 .426

Nimmo also cracked BA’s midseason top 50, taking the #48 spot in the rankings. The 21-year-old made half of his plate appearances at Double-A in 2014, where he hit six homers and posted a .339 OBP. His walk rates have been solid at every level and if he continues to develop more power, he could become a fantasy relevant outfielder even if it’s not in center field. His ETA is still sometime in 2016, so there’s a lot of development left here.

Roman Quinn, OF | PHI

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
382 51 84 10 3 7 33 9.4% 20.9% 32 12 .257 .343 .370

Originally a shortstop, Quinn has made the transition to center field thanks to the emergence of J.P Crawford as the Phils’ shortstop of the future. Speed is Quinn’s best tool, posting solid OBP numbers and stealing 30+ bases in each of his last three minor league seasons. The 2014 numbers are especially impressive given that the 21-year-old ruptured his Achilles tendon this past spring and then had to learn a new position.

Tyler Glasnow, RHP | PIT

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
12 5 1.74 23 23 0 124.1 74 29 24 3 4.13 11.36 .174

We knew Glasnow was good from his 2013 numbers, but in 2014 he was even better. The Pirates are loaded with talent even after promoting Gregory Polanco to the big club. Glasnow is a 6-foot-7, 21-year-old righty with an upper 90s fastball, sharp curve, and good changeup. The 4+ walk rate is the only blemish on his stat line, but that should improve with time. In fact he made improvements just this past season, posting a BB/9 of 2.9 from July forward.

Surprise Saguaros

D.J. Peterson, 3B | SEA

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
547 83 146 31 1 31 111 8.2% 21.2% 7 1 .295 .358 .549

Peterson could actually end up being a first baseman since it sounds like his glove isn’t going to cut it at third. But since we’re talking about fantasy, his defensive position isn’t as big an issue. The 22-year-old hit 13 of his 31 dingers after his promotion to Double-A and even though he hit a poor .223 there in August, he still managed six homers for the month. It will be interesting to see how the Mariners handle their former first-round pick next year. His bat could force its way onto the major league roster at some point in late 2015.

Hunter Renfroe, OF | SD

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
567 63 134 33 3 21 75 9.3% 23.6% 11 4 .267 .342 .470

Renfroe has raw power and looks like a major league right fielder in the making. At 22 years old, he is probably the best hitter in the Padres’ system after Rymer Liriano’s promotion to the bigs. Renfroe was the 13th overall pick in 2013 and he handled a promotion to Double-A in just his second season. While he hit only .232 in 60 Texas League games, he still managed to swat five homers and 12 doubles. He’ll return to the Texas League for the start of 2015 and should be up with the Padres at some point in 2016.

Jesse Winker, OF | CIN

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
341 57 81 20 0 15 57 15.8% 19.9% 4 1 .287 .399 .518

Winker showed some serious hitting chops for most of the season but understandably struggled after his promotion to Double-A as a 20-year-old. After hitting .317 with 13 homers in the California League, he hit just .208 with two home runs for Double-A Pensacola. Take it with a grain of salt, however, since he was one of the ten youngest players in the league and it’s, well, normal. It’s also important to note that he suffered a hand injury that essentially ended his season despite trying to play through it. Winker’s going to hit, and he should also develop more power as he matures.

Rusney Castillo, OF | BOS *MLB stats

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
40 6 12 1 0 2 6 7.5% 15% 3 0 .333 .400 .528

The latest big name to come out of Cuba, Castillo made his debut with the Red Sox this September. The jury is still out with only limited looks of the 27-year-old, but at first glance he looks like the type of player that could be really useful in fantasy. It’s likely that he’ll provide more value with his legs than his bat, but he showed glimpses of both in his 40 plate appearances this fall. The Red Sox, like the Pirates, have a strong minor league system. With the addition of Castillo, it looks like they’ll have a stacked outfield heading into 2015 as well.

More AFL Previews…

Salt River/Peoria

Mesa/Glendale

  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Mike!

    Great write-up! Looks like all eyes will be on Winker and Castillo but one never knows who will take the headlines. This is great stuff, I never tire of reading about prospects.

    Thanks for the fantastic intelligent writing, man!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks!

      Winker looks like a legit bat. Could be a nice buy in dynasties with the injuries and initial AA numbers.

  2. Lville Jim says:
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    Any chance Ji-Man Choi gets a shot with the M’s next season? Not a lot of power but great obp numbers. Maybe they could get Billy Beane to trade for him.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Hard to say, but he could end up as like a DH/1B type. Like you said, problem with fantasy is he’s more OBP than HR. Some spec’ing that DJ could move across the diamond to first base too.

      • Lville Jim says:
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        @Mike: Already have Belt and Adams in my dynasty league who are Choi with more pop, but was looking at possibly adding another bat at the expense of one of my n/a spots. His path to the majors looks to maybe involve an injury call up or being traded for a middle relief type pitcher at some point next year, barring him going bonkers at AAA early on.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          cool. yeah that path is a little muddy. Is Olson from the A’s still available? He’s probably got more power upside than Choi

          • Lville Jim says:
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            @Mike: No, the cupboards are pretty bare. Choi and Story are the only hitters of Interest remaining.

  3. LurveGuru says:
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    What ever happened to Brian Goodwin? He seemed to be heading towards fantasy relevance and 20/20 projections but he seems to have fallen off the map big time.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      yeah, he made the jump to AAA and kind of sucked across the board stats wise. I’d give him another look at that level next season. He’s still a top ten guy in the Nats’ system and the speed could still play in fantasy even if he doesn’t hit for as much power as we originally thought he would.

  4. Birdmann says:
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    Hey Mike your AFL stuff has been on point and far more useful for both real and fantasy ball, great read. MLB.com stuff is weak on AFL, thanks for doing a great job.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I really appreciate that! I’m glad it was helpful.

      • Birdmann says:
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        @Mike: I read the site all the time, but don’t comment on everything. I will be looking forward to reading this section, you have really showed that you can write about a bunch of things this year, not just SAGNOF, keep it up.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          thanks!

  5. Andre says:
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    Mike! Great write up…already got my eye on Winker in my dynasty league. Thanks to your write ups I won my first a Fantasy Baseball Championship this season. Because it’s never too soon to think about next year…what are your early thoughts on who to keep for next season out of this group? 6×6 league, 5 keepers that can be kept forever. H, R, Avg, HR, RBI, Stls….W, Ks, QS, Whip, Sv, ERA

    Stanton (no brainer), McCutchen (no brainer), Posey (no brainer), Rendon, Arenado, D.Gordon, Darvish, Scherzer, Harvey, Pederson, AGon, Pence

    That’s a big list but any insight would be appreciated! Keep up the great work.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      congrats! Rendon and Arenado IMO

  6. Wake Up says:
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    Nice work my friend.

    My one and only visit to Surprise, AZ tasted like a 3 alarm chili fart wrapped in a skunk’s tail smathered with toe jam…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Dude, can I call you back later? I’m sexting with your grandma…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ask her to make you her monkey bread for ‘dessert.’

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: *wipes chin*
            I’ve been eating her monkey bread for 45 minutes…my dongue ia dumb…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Better not be trying to fit a banana in the ol’ tailpipe…

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                why would anyone put a banana in their tail…oh…oh my

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  is it a wet tail pipe?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha…I hope Wake hasn’t upset your tender sensibilities….

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    haha…my sensibilities are still intact no worries

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha, sweet!

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Grey: Don’t you dare try to turn this around on me! I was simply referencing some innocent risque picture sending and a smidge of octogenarian oral sex…I made no mention of trying to disable anyone’s vehicle!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Fair enough, I was outta line.

                • Wake Up says:
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                  @Mike: I think he’s saying that I was trying to make it that her car wouldn’t start…I would never!

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    Hahaha

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Ha! Thanks Wake…

  7. asdfasdf says:
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    Hi Mike, in a dynasty league with OBP/SLG, how would you rank the top 5 or so out of these guys: Longoria, Donaldson, Brantley, Ellsbury, Price, Scherzer, CarGo, Castro, Dee Gordon, Votto, Braun, Marte, Dozier, Kipnis? Sorry that’s a lot of names, just the top 5 is good. Thanks :)

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      No problem…Marte, Donaldson, Brantley, Longoria, and either Cargo or Braun…hard to rank them against each other but those five or six names jump out at me from that list

      • asdfasdf says:
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        @Mike: Okay, thanks! What about Votto, since this is an OBP league?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Might make sense in that format. To me he kind of falls in that Cargo, Braun group with the age and injury.

          • asdfasdf says:
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            @Mike: Yeah, okay. Thanks again

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              No problem

  8. Sherwood says:
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    How would you rank, these players for a keeper league, all players are a $1. Tomas. R.Castillo, Rodon, Kenta Maeda if he is posted,Schwarber, Aiken and Kolek. This is a 16 team keeper no roster limit, any help is appreciated.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Hmmm. Interesting mix there. I’d rank the bats Castillo, Tomas, Schwarber and the arms Rodon, Aiken, Kolek. Hard to rank Maeda but obviously he sounds nasty. Tomas is tricky too since we don’t know where he’s going to sign yet.

      • Sherwood says:
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        Would you rate Castillo over Rodon.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          If it’s a keep forever, I’d lean Rodon

Comments are closed.