Ladies and gentlemen, the moment you’ve all been waiting for is just a few sarcastic and synergistic sentences away. With draft season about to explode on us like animals in heat, I thought it was time for me to publish my position-adjusted overall rankings before some of you found out where I lived and started beating on my door. I actually got an email from someone asking me if my rankings would be ready in time for his draft and if I expected them to be good. I replied “unsubscribe”. Well without further ado allow me to reveal the name of the top ranked player. That player is Ryan Braun! Wait, what??!! Can’t be! Sorry about that I stepped away to grab a beer and Steve Harvey swooped in a typed that. That will teach me to leave my MacBook unlocked. The actual number one player, for two years in a row, is Clayton Kershaw.

Okay, so for those of you wondering how I came to such a conclusion I will explain my methods of madness.

The first step is get your hands on a reliable set of projections. Without projections you are more or less dead in the water. Next, apply your league’s scoring system to said projections to generate projected fantasy points for every player. The beauty of points leagues is that, at the end of the day, everything boils down to one category. POINTS. And here’s a very important thing to remember. Not all points are created equal, but it doesn’t matter (at all) how they were created. If player “A” scored 5 points by getting 5 singles and player “B” scored 5 points by taking 5 walks, they are both equal. Or are they?

Their contribution to your team’s cause is equal, but depending on each player’s position, one contribution will likely have more value than the other. The reason Troy Tulowitzki has been ranked so high for the last many seasons was because he did what he did as a shortstop. If he was a first baseman, he would have been ranked much lower. Position matters. So does size. If she tells you otherwise, she is lying. Oh, and my condolences for being in the position that she felt she needed to tell you as much.

The key to determining position-adjusted rankings is trying to figure out how much more valuable each player is than the replacement level player at his primary position. The replacement level player is the guy that can be typically found on the waiver wire. You always want to make sure you have a player better than this player.

My calculation assume the following roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Util IF, OF (4), SP (4), RP (2), Bench (7)

This gives each team a total of 23 players. In a 12-team league that’s 276 players. Based on my findings here are the number of players at each position I am using to find the replacement player.

C (14), 1B (20), 2B (14), 3B (16), SS (14), OF (60), SP (62), RP (28)

The nth+1 player at each position is the replacement player. Once we have our list of players at each position completed we can calculate each player’s z-scores.

Z-SCORE = (Player’s Projected Points – Average Projected Points For All Players At That Position In Our Pool) / Standard Deviation For That Data Set

The next step is to determine each player’s fantasy value over replacement. We do this by taking the replacement player and subtracting his z-score value from everyone else at his position. The result is fantasy value over replacement. Once we’ve done this for each position, we can then start to compare players across positions.

Before we jump into the results I’d like to point out the scoring system used in this post.

RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+2), 3B (+3), HR (+4), BB (+1), KO (-1), HBP (+1), SB (+1), CS (-1), SF (+1)
WIN (+5), LOSS (-5), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+5), BLOWN SAVE (-3), ER (-1), HIT (-1)

Here are the top 227 position-adjusted fantasy point earners:

Name P FPTS FVARz RK ADP ADPR ADPD ADPRD
Clayton Kershaw SP 703.8 4.381 1 2.25 1 1.25 0
Mike Trout OF 467.39 4.224 2 3.04 3 1.04 1
Bryce Harper OF 452.39 3.913 3 2.67 2 -0.33 -1
Carlos Correa SS 389.49 3.859 4 12.34 8 8.34 4
Jose Bautista OF 445.38 3.768 5 16.9 15 11.9 10
Buster Posey C 397.56 3.696 6 25.22 25 19.22 19
Jose Altuve 2B 420.3 3.680 7 20.88 19 13.88 12
Mookie Betts OF 432.62 3.503 8 32.4 31 24.4 23
Max Scherzer SP 631.7 3.490 9 8.21 7 -0.79 -2
Andrew McCutchen OF 428.64 3.421 10 18.43 16 8.43 6
Kenley Jansen RP 382.19 3.285 11 64.42 64 53.42 53
Paul Goldschmidt 1B 469.58 3.276 12 4.54 4 -7.46 -8
Chris Sale SP 602.65 3.132 13 16.42 14 3.42 1
Craig Kimbrel RP 374.4 3.097 14 75.61 75 61.61 61
Josh Donaldson 3B 447.22 3.058 15 8.09 6 -6.91 -9
Manny Machado 3B 443.81 2.993 16 18.99 17 2.99 1
Miguel Cabrera 1B 449.88 2.943 17 15.59 13 -1.41 -4
Madison Bumgarner SP 586.53 2.933 18 12.94 9 -5.06 -9
Anthony Rizzo 1B 448.94 2.927 19 13.28 10 -5.72 -9
Mark Melancon RP 367.26 2.924 20 110.27 107 90.27 87
Aroldis Chapman RP 365.61 2.884 21 126.04 119 105.04 98
Jake Arrieta SP 580.99 2.864 22 7.81 5 -14.19 -17
David Price SP 580.56 2.859 23 20.98 20 -2.02 -3
Jeurys Familia RP 363.34 2.829 24 92.32 90 68.32 66
Trevor Rosenthal RP 358 2.700 25 93.5 91 68.5 66
Nolan Arenado 3B 426.53 2.664 26 21.89 21 -4.11 -5
Edwin Encarnacion 1B 433.38 2.664 27 24.16 23 -2.84 -4
Corey Kluber SP 563.93 2.654 28 27.48 27 -0.52 -1
Robinson Cano 2B 383.47 2.640 29 62.38 60 33.38 31
A.J. Pollock OF 387.3 2.564 30 29.57 28 -0.43 -2
Zach Britton RP 351.99 2.555 31 106.03 100 75.03 69
Stephen Strasburg SP 547.96 2.456 32 34.65 33 2.65 1
Ian Kinsler 2B 376.95 2.456 33 104.68 98 71.68 65
Giancarlo Stanton OF 380.65 2.427 34 13.85 11 -20.15 -23
David Robertson RP 346.44 2.420 35 135.52 132 100.52 97
Zack Greinke SP 542.97 2.395 36 14.46 12 -21.54 -24
Cody Allen RP 344.37 2.370 37 129.91 123 92.91 86
Jason Heyward OF 374.03 2.290 38 85.15 82 47.15 44
Felix Hernandez SP 533.68 2.280 39 25 24 -14 -15
Albert Pujols 1B 410.56 2.278 40 75.31 74 35.31 34
Joey Votto 1B 410.49 2.277 41 33.39 32 -7.61 -9
Jose Abreu 1B 408.71 2.247 42 30.85 30 -11.15 -12
Wade Davis RP 337.47 2.203 43 72.38 71 29.38 28
Adam Jones OF 369.12 2.188 44 57.26 55 13.26 11
Michael Brantley OF 368.77 2.181 45 99.94 97 54.94 52
Charlie Blackmon OF 367.68 2.158 46 66.78 65 20.78 19
Prince Fielder 1B 403.26 2.155 47 111.69 108 64.69 61
Dallas Keuchel SP 522.63 2.144 48 19.68 18 -28.32 -30
Jacob deGrom SP 516.84 2.072 49 23.87 22 -25.13 -27
Xander Bogaerts SS 332.24 2.047 50 71.38 68 21.38 18
Hector Rondon RP 330.3 2.030 51 135.38 131 84.38 80
Ken Giles RP 330 2.023 52 124.78 115 72.78 63
Ryan Braun OF 359.97 1.998 53 68.58 67 15.58 14
Jon Lester SP 510.15 1.990 54 51.04 44 -2.96 -10
Justin Upton OF 359.14 1.981 55 56.99 53 1.99 -2
Gerrit Cole SP 508.53 1.970 56 35.76 34 -20.24 -22
Yoenis Cespedes OF 358.53 1.968 57 62.37 59 5.37 2
Chris Archer SP 507.74 1.960 58 48.56 41 -9.44 -17
Carlos Carrasco SP 503.54 1.908 59 52.67 46 -6.33 -13
Matt Harvey SP 501.54 1.883 60 25.87 26 -34.13 -34
Johnny Cueto SP 499.44 1.857 61 55.24 51 -5.76 -10
Kyle Schwarber C 303.24 1.856 62 41.97 39 -20.03 -23
Brian Dozier 2B 354.94 1.835 63 63.41 61 0.41 -2
Nelson Cruz OF 351.42 1.821 64 51.03 43 -12.97 -21
Matt Carpenter 3B 381.97 1.816 65 51.7 45 -13.3 -20
Freddie Freeman 1B 382.15 1.798 66 81.13 78 15.13 12
Jonathan Lucroy C 299.16 1.777 67 96.78 95 29.78 28
Huston Street RP 318.2 1.737 68 136.59 134 68.59 66
J.D. Martinez OF 347.28 1.735 69 59.85 57 -9.15 -12
David Ortiz DH 376.56 1.703 70 109.3 106 39.3 36
Francisco Lindor SS 321.18 1.697 71 54.31 49 -16.69 -22
Cole Hamels SP 486.39 1.696 72 40.13 38 -31.87 -34
Brian McCann C 293.61 1.669 73 85.52 84 12.52 11
Kyle Seager 3B 373.94 1.663 74 107.37 102 33.37 28
Francisco Rodriguez RP 314.24 1.642 75 157.76 151 82.76 76
Eric Hosmer 1B 372.4 1.633 76 95.19 92 19.19 16
Shawn Tolleson RP 313.54 1.625 77 176.46 172 99.46 95
Adrian Beltre 3B 371.17 1.611 78 68.04 66 -9.96 -12
Sonny Gray SP 477.42 1.585 79 37.68 36 -41.32 -43
Jonathan Papelbon RP 310.29 1.546 80 131.01 126 51.01 46
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 367.1 1.544 81 58.32 56 -22.68 -25
Salvador Perez C 285 1.501 82 125.94 117 43.94 35
Melky Cabrera OF 335.36 1.488 83 200.25 198 117.25 115
Will Smith RP 307.89 1.488 84 190.63 187 106.63 103
Starling Marte OF 335.22 1.486 85 71.75 70 -13.25 -15
Josh Reddick OF 334.73 1.475 86 166.37 160 80.37 74
Glen Perkins RP 306.85 1.463 87 170.64 165 83.64 78
A.J. Ramos RP 306.33 1.450 88 172.83 168 84.83 80
Chris Davis 1B 360.53 1.433 89 38.02 37 -50.98 -52
Danny Salazar SP 463.46 1.413 90 77.37 76 -12.63 -14
Kris Bryant 3B 360.56 1.409 91 29.82 29 -61.18 -62
Carlos Santana 1B 356.58 1.366 92 147.54 139 55.54 47
Carlos Gonzalez OF 328.93 1.355 93 82.32 80 -10.68 -13
Noah Syndergaard SP 456.83 1.331 94 48.74 42 -45.26 -52
Jose Quintana SP 455.24 1.312 95 106.77 101 11.77 6
Daniel Murphy 2B 335.63 1.290 96 96.33 94 0.33 -2
Lorenzo Cain OF 325.13 1.277 97 53.69 48 -43.31 -49
Brad Boxberger RP 298.53 1.262 98 167.53 161 69.53 63
Adam Eaton OF 323.73 1.248 99 173.94 170 74.94 71
Jeff Samardzija SP 449.58 1.242 100 111.88 109 11.88 9
Ben Zobrist 2B 333.17 1.220 101 88.62 86 -12.38 -15
Garrett Richards SP 447.69 1.218 102 64.06 62 -37.94 -40
James Shields SP 447.03 1.210 103 108.92 105 5.92 2
Victor Martinez 1B 346.86 1.202 104 160.46 152 56.46 48
Todd Frazier 3B 349.24 1.193 105 64.2 63 -40.8 -42
Shin-Soo Choo OF 320.51 1.181 106 136.25 133 30.25 27
Nick Markakis OF 319.4 1.158 107 235.43 221 128.43 114
Tyson Ross SP 441.57 1.143 108 105.94 99 -2.06 -9
Elvis Andrus SS 303.08 1.125 109 163.49 155 54.49 46
Francisco Liriano SP 440.07 1.124 110 87.96 85 -22.04 -25
Yasiel Puig OF 316.42 1.096 111 95.37 93 -15.63 -18
Troy Tulowitzki SS 301.62 1.078 112 56.34 52 -55.66 -60
Ben Revere OF 315.12 1.069 113 169.35 163 56.35 50
Gregory Polanco OF 313.47 1.035 114 165.73 159 51.73 45
Jordan Zimmermann SP 431.4 1.017 115 91.62 88 -23.38 -27
David Peralta OF 311.96 1.004 116 176.46 173 60.46 57
Russell Martin C 259.05 0.995 117 124.71 114 7.71 -3
Collin McHugh SP 428.62 0.983 118 81.42 79 -36.58 -39
Kole Calhoun OF 310.66 0.977 119 172.21 166 53.21 47
Santiago Casilla RP 286.67 0.975 120 151.96 146 31.96 26
Matt Kemp OF 310.37 0.971 121 126.54 120 5.54 -1
Evan Longoria 3B 336.94 0.959 122 132.61 127 10.61 5
Jason Kipnis 2B 323.42 0.945 123 123.7 112 0.7 -11
Jacoby Ellsbury OF 309.03 0.943 124 124.66 113 0.66 -11
Julio Teheran SP 425.19 0.941 125 129.72 122 4.72 -3
Anthony Rendon 2B 323.23 0.940 126 92.3 89 -33.7 -37
Dustin Pedroia 2B 323.1 0.936 127 120.1 111 -6.9 -16
Rougned Odor 2B 323 0.933 128 124.99 116 -3.01 -12
Curtis Granderson OF 308.22 0.926 129 108.89 104 -20.11 -25
Matt Holliday OF 307.85 0.919 130 150.72 144 20.72 14
John Lackey SP 422.19 0.904 131 133.77 128 2.77 -3
Jose Fernandez SP 422.09 0.902 132 37.25 35 -94.75 -97
Christian Yelich OF 306.34 0.887 133 141.47 138 8.47 5
Brett Gardner OF 306 0.880 134 163.37 154 29.37 20
Dee Gordon 2B 321.1 0.879 135 47.17 40 -87.83 -95
Hunter Pence OF 305.92 0.879 136 126.97 121 -9.03 -15
Hanley Ramirez OF 305.91 0.878 137 140.17 137 3.17 0
Stephen Vogt C 252.85 0.874 138 155.73 150 17.73 12
Alex Gordon OF 303.43 0.827 139 167.7 162 28.7 23
Masahiro Tanaka SP 415.87 0.826 140 71.47 69 -68.53 -71
Carlos Gomez OF 302.52 0.808 141 73.77 73 -67.23 -68
Corey Seager SS 292.46 0.788 142 81.02 77 -60.98 -65
George Springer OF 300.86 0.774 143 57.01 54 -85.99 -89
Mike Moustakas 3B 326.98 0.770 144 165.25 158 21.25 14
Kevin Pillar OF 300.23 0.761 145 221.34 214 76.34 69
Wei-Yin Chen SP 408.4 0.733 146 183.27 177 37.27 31
Carlos Martinez SP 407.06 0.717 147 52.73 47 -94.27 -100
Jake Odorizzi SP 404.76 0.688 148 134.88 130 -13.12 -18
Andrelton Simmons SS 288.86 0.675 149 224.3 216 75.3 67
Ender Inciarte OF 296 0.673 150 217.19 210 67.19 60
Jay Bruce OF 295.08 0.654 151 183.48 179 32.48 28
Travis d’Arnaud C 241.51 0.653 152 137.57 136 -14.43 -16
Kenta Maeda SP 401.59 0.649 153 152.37 148 -0.63 -5
Maikel Franco 3B 320.52 0.647 154 60.69 58 -93.31 -96
Yordano Ventura SP 400.35 0.634 155 147.65 140 -7.35 -15
Scott Kazmir SP 400.22 0.632 156 151.66 145 -4.34 -11
Shelby Miller SP 399.79 0.627 157 113.56 110 -43.44 -47
Gerardo Parra OF 293.7 0.625 158 198.97 196 40.97 38
Dellin Betances RP 271.93 0.618 159 186.21 184 27.21 25
Denard Span OF 293.33 0.618 160 205.92 201 45.92 41
Raimel Tapia OF 293 0.611 161 270 225 109 64
Evan Gattis OF 291.74 0.585 162 204.3 200 42.3 38
Hyun-soo Kim OF 291.62 0.582 163 195.47 192 32.47 29
Neil Walker 2B 310.35 0.576 164 192.57 189 28.57 25
Erick Aybar SS 285.74 0.576 165 226.08 217 61.08 52
Jhonny Peralta SS 285.53 0.569 166 183.38 178 17.38 12
Starlin Castro SS 285.44 0.566 167 152.24 147 -14.76 -20
Dexter Fowler OF 290.74 0.564 168 181.65 176 13.65 8
Andrew Miller RP 269.19 0.552 169 173.71 169 4.71 0
Gio Gonzalez SP 393.68 0.552 170 149.25 143 -20.75 -27
Justin Verlander SP 392 0.531 171 97.03 96 -73.97 -75
Michael Wacha SP 390.68 0.515 172 72.41 72 -99.59 -100
Alcides Escobar SS 283.66 0.510 173 209.98 206 36.98 33
Lucas Duda 1B 305.72 0.506 174 148.96 142 -25.04 -32
Yadier Molina C 233.97 0.505 175 211.19 208 36.19 33
Billy Burns OF 286.96 0.486 176 186.07 183 10.07 7
Alexei Ramirez SS 282.42 0.471 177 189.73 186 12.73 9
Hisashi Iwakuma SP 384.18 0.434 178 91.08 87 -86.92 -91
Michael Pineda SP 383.7 0.428 179 130.05 124 -48.95 -55
R.A. Dickey SP 380.87 0.393 180 194.26 191 14.26 11
Matt Duffy 3B 307 0.389 181 107.51 103 -73.49 -78
Miguel Sano 3B 306.55 0.381 182 83.1 81 -98.9 -101
Brad Ziegler RP 261.36 0.363 183 190.67 188 7.67 5
Roberto Osuna RP 260.96 0.353 184 207.64 202 23.64 18
Delino DeShields OF 279.75 0.336 185 221.33 213 36.33 28
Rick Porcello SP 376.14 0.335 186 209.29 205 23.29 19
Adam Wainwright SP 375.58 0.328 187 54.72 50 -132.28 -137
J.T. Realmuto C 224.63 0.323 188 184.34 180 -3.66 -8
Nori Aoki OF 278.99 0.321 189 270 226 81 37
Stephen Piscotty OF 278.95 0.320 190 85.32 83 -104.68 -107
Kyle Hendricks SP 373.79 0.306 191 189.34 185 -1.66 -6
Derek Norris C 223.44 0.300 192 207.97 203 15.97 11
Yasmani Grandal C 223.21 0.296 193 164.27 157 -28.73 -36
Mike Leake SP 370.96 0.271 194 192.76 190 -1.24 -4
Wade Miley SP 369.08 0.248 195 234.29 220 39.29 25
Taijuan Walker SP 368.34 0.239 196 126.01 118 -69.99 -78
Mark Teixeira 1B 289.71 0.236 197 134.58 129 -62.42 -68
Adam Lind 1B 289.13 0.226 198 203.17 199 5.17 1
Ian Kennedy SP 365.19 0.200 199 185.42 182 -13.58 -17
Trevor Plouffe 3B 296.97 0.198 200 176.14 171 -23.86 -29
Joe Mauer 1B 285.36 0.162 201 268.43 224 67.43 23
Martin Prado 3B 294.75 0.156 202 228.94 218 26.94 16
Edinson Volquez SP 361.24 0.151 203 197.57 193 -5.43 -10
Khris Davis OF 270.43 0.143 204 130.62 125 -73.38 -79
Michael Conforto OF 270.16 0.138 205 181.54 175 -23.46 -30
Kevin Kiermaier OF 270.14 0.137 206 270 227 64 21
Lance McCullers SP 359.22 0.126 207 137.08 135 -69.92 -72
Carlos Beltran OF 268.7 0.108 208 213.88 209 5.88 1
Jayson Werth OF 268.68 0.107 209 198.09 195 -10.91 -14
Jake McGee RP 250.38 0.097 210 222.63 215 12.63 5
Phil Hughes SP 356.18 0.089 211 184.34 181 -26.66 -30
Mike Fiers SP 355.01 0.074 212 197.87 194 -14.13 -18
Marco Estrada SP,RP 354.73 0.071 213 163.88 156 -49.12 -57
Anthony DeSclafani SP 353.68 0.058 214 210.73 207 -3.27 -7
Wilson Ramos C 210.91 0.056 215 237.13 223 22.13 8
Drew Storen RP 247.77 0.034 216 199.43 197 -16.57 -19
Jason Hammel SP 351.45 0.030 217 209.07 204 -7.93 -13
Mark Trumbo OF 263.91 0.008 218 172.37 167 -45.63 -51
Marcus Semien SS 267.54 0.000 219 230.69 219 11.69 0
Jose Reyes SS 267.54 0.000 220 147.84 141 -72.16 -79
Corey Dickerson OF 263.51 0.000 221 153.85 149 -67.15 -72
Brandon Belt 1B 275.77 0.000 222 161.46 153 -60.54 -69
Yan Gomes C 208.05 0.000 223 170.05 164 -52.95 -59
Kolten Wong 2B 289.95 0.000 224 178.11 174 -45.89 -50
Kyle Gibson SP 349.01 0.000 225 217.26 211 -7.74 -14
Fernando Rodney RP 246.36 0.000 226 217.77 212 -8.23 -14
Pablo Sandoval 3B 286.55 0.000 227 236.97 222 9.97 -5

Here’s quick explanation of some of the columns.
FPTS=fantasy points, FVARz=fantasy value above replacement based on z-score, RK=rank, ADP=average draft position, ADPR=rank based on ADP, ADPD=difference between ADP and overall rank, ADPRD=difference between ADP rank and overall rank

Yes, just like last year Buster Posey has first round value. But again, just like last year, it would be foolish to draft him in the first round when his ADP (25.22) has him being selected in the early third round in 12-team leagues and mid third round in 10 teams. This leads me right into the best way to use the above chart. This chart ranks all of your “draftable” players. Based on the league’s scoring system, this is the order (more or less) that the players “should” be drafted. But it’s not reality. First of all, no one else in your league is going to have this list. Instead they will have some other set of rankings, perhaps ADP, and be using that to guide them through the draft. Your list is optimized for your league. There’s is not. But not only do they not know this, but they don’t care. Especially since everyone else in the league is likely using a very similar set of rankings. Heck, if you’re doing a online draft (which most do), the majority of your league mates will just use the cheat sheets provided by the site’s draft software. And this means they are all using the same rankings.

If you know how your opponents have the players ranked, you can use this to your advantage. Here’s how. Let’s use Robinson Cano as an example. According to my rankings Cano is the 29th ranked player, meaning he should be selected with approximately the 29th pick. His current ADP is about 63. That means if you get him with any pick after 29, you are getting value based on these rankings. The trick is being able to play the game of chicken and seeing how long after, but before his ADP you can wait until you draft him. My suggestion is to take him with whatever pick you have between 48 and 60. The closer to 60 you go the better the value, but the bigger the chance someone else is going to scoop him up a few picks early. But remember, if you believe in your rankings, then even taking him with the 45th pick is still a value pick.

This principle can be applied to many players in this list. The best way to identify players that fall into this category is to look for players with high ADPD and ADPRD values. You can just sort those columns in descending order. Now might be a good time to explain the difference in those columns. ADPD is the difference between my ranking and the player’s ADP. As you will notice ADP values are usually fractional as they represent the average position in a draft a player is being picked. My column “ADPR” stands for ADP Rank. What I did here was order the players in ascending order based on ADP and then ranked them based on this order. Clayton Kershaw has an ADP of 2.25, but that is the lowest ADP of all players. Therefore, based on ADP, he is the top ranked player. ADPRD is the different between my ranking and the player’s ADPR. Got it? Good.

When you sort by these columns you will notice a lot of RP come to the top. This is because RP is often a position that gets punted in drafts. Then there will be a run on closers and POOF the top 10 RP are off the board. This list should help give you an idea of where each RP ranks amongst everyone else.

Ignoring closers for now, let’s look at the hitters with a high ADPD. These are players that can be drafted at a discount and prove to be well worth their weight in points when compared to where you were able to draft them.

Nick Markakis is at the top of the list. His ADP is around 235 and I have him ranked 107. Do yourself a favor and grab him in the 18th round. And you might want to consider grabbing Melky Cabrera in the 17th. Other, more relevant players, that I think can be drafted at a discount in points leagues include Prince Fielder, Nori Aoki (ignori his ADPRD), Adam Eaton, Kole Calhoun, Gregory Polanco and David Ortiz. Ortiz is one of the most underrated players in points leagues. His ADP is about 109. I’ve got him at 70. I’m drafting him around 85. You’re welcome.

On the flip side, we can also use our list to identify players to avoid. These are players that based on our rankings and ADP are being drafted much earlier that we have them ranked. If your rankings have a player at 60 and he is being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round, let him go. I usually cross those players off before the draft even starts. It is one thing to reach for a player that you feel strongly about, but when you need to reach several rounds based on how you’ve ranked a player, it might not be worth it. Fantasy players that let emotion overrule intelligent decision making often end up falling short of the championship. To find some of these jabronies, just sort by ADPR in descending order.

Okay, so here’s the deal. I’m attaching my spreadsheet to this post, but calculating specific rankings for your league like I’ve done above are not going to be easy unless you have at least a small set of Excel skills. You do not have to be an expert, but you need to have some working knowledge. I will try and spell out the steps as best as I can.

Step one is to update the “Points System” worksheet with your league’s scoring system. This will automatically update each player’s FPTS on all applicable worksheets. It will also update their FVARz values. If you go to the “Overall” worksheet and re-sort the FVARz column in descending order, this should re-rank the players. But here’s the catch, if your league has more than 12 teams or employs a larger starting lineup that would require your calculations to account for more players at a specific position than I am using in this post, then you are not going to be able to update that. At least not without my help. If you are in that situation, let me know in the comments and I will see what I can do. No promises.

That’s about it. Good luck, and Baba Booey to you all!

Download the spreadsheet.

 
  1. de nachos says:
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    “I can’t really hear that good but I can see it all. And I see OJ. I see OJ, man.”

    Thanks for the Excel file. Time for my annual screed that a points league plays a lot more like real MLB GM than roto, minus salaries. That is, in traditional roto you might be able to punt a category or two and win, but in points you can actually punt offense (2010 San Fran) or punt pitching (2008 Phils) and have a realistic chance to succeed. Or you can play it safe (category style) and build a well rounded team. More mouse trap options.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @de nachos: He looks scared! Good luck…

  2. Sandersman says:
    (link)

    So in a keeper H2H points league where the difference in the Kershaw to [other SP] gap and the Trout/Harper to [other OF] gap is even bigger than the scoring system you have above, Kershaw is a for-sure no-brainer #1 overall pick over Trout? That’s what I’m getting from this.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Sandersman: You know it…

  3. Mike says:
    (link)

    About a month ago I spent a day calculating Z scores. I should’ve waited for this!

    Anyway, some dudes are all messed up because of position changes (e.g., Desmond). His position on the board cratered from about 30 to 95 (offense and pitching are separated because it’s impossible to mix them with QS bonuses). My biggest concern is how far to reach. Posey will not go 5th overall (I have him 4th overall with the SD ranking, Correa 1). Any recommendation for how far to go? I arbitrarily chose a 75 point “reach limit.” Reaching for Dozier in the 4th round (have him ranked 6th round when looking at total points) seems ok, but where is the limit?

    Also, one thing I noticed was how easy it is to grab a 1B. A guy like Duda will go undrafted and can be a top 20 1B. Not bad for the 26th round.

    This is my first year attempting to account for position weight (I was AWFUL at catcher all year last year), so let’s see how it goes.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Sorry man. I did this last season too. Some multi-position players might be better suited in another list. As for when to select (reach) a player I try to balance between my ranking and ADP. I don’t like to reach more than 3 rounds. But after 10-12 rounds just about anything is fair game. Duda can definitely pull his weight. Don’t discount Travis d’Arnaud at catcher.

  4. Schlurricane

    Schlurricane says:
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    You sir are right on time. Drafting tomorrow. 10 teams. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 4 OF, 3 UTIL, 6 SP, 3 RP, 8 Bench. Can we attempt to convert this bad boy?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Schlurricane: I’ll do it later tonight. After I take my “dad” hat off…

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Schlurricane: What’s the scoring system?

      • Schlurricane

        Schlurricane says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: I think I can adjust that myself right?

        If not

        1B 1.5
        2B 2
        3B 3
        HR 4
        R 1.5
        RBI 1.5
        SB 3
        CS -1
        BB 1
        HBO 1
        SF 1

        IP 3
        K 1
        BB -.5
        H -.5
        W 7
        QS 3
        L -5
        S 9
        BS -3

  5. Chris says:
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    My last keeper in a 10 team H2H pts league is between Cano and Starling Marte. I keep going back and forth. I think Cano could out score Marte on the year but I can keep Marte forever. Which do you like better in a point league?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Cano

  6. Tom says:
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    14 team. C 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 U, 5 SP, 2 RP, 6 Bench. You are the man and thanks for all you do. Still on the fence between Correa and Betts by the way!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Tom: I need the scoring system too. But I still say Correa!

      • Tom says:
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        @malamoney: I get the whole position scarcity thing, but they should score about the same and Betts would be round 10 vs round 6 for Correa! CarMart in the 21st is also enticing.

        Scoring System:
        1B Singles 1 point
        2B Doubles 2 points
        3B Triples 3 points
        BB Walks (Batters) 0.5 points
        CS Caught Stealing -1 point
        CYC Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
        GDP Ground Into Double Plays -0.5 points
        HP Hit by Pitch 0.5 points
        HR Home Runs 4 points
        KO Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
        R Runs 1 point
        RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
        SB Stolen Bases 1 point
        BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
        BS Blown Saves -2 points
        CG Complete Games 3 points
        ER Earned Runs -1 point
        HB Hit Batsmen -0.5 points
        INN Innings 1.5 points
        K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
        L Losses -6 points
        NH No-Hitters 15 points
        PG Perfect Games 20 points
        QS Quality Starts 1 point
        S Saves 6 points
        W Wins 6 points

      • Tom says:
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        @malamoney: Think you might have time to do this today? Draft is in two days!

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Tom: Drop me an email at [email protected] and I will get you the results…

  7. jash says:
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    OHHH man this is amazing, and I’m two hours late in reading this. I just finished my points league draft and immediately following accepted a trade sending posey for Rizzo thinking I made out… wah

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @jash: Thanks! Who is your other catcher? And who was your 1B?

      • jash says:
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        @malamoney: I’m replacing Posey with Beefy Wellington and moving Ortiz @ 1b to utility. As you know, it’s a pitching heavy league/points scoring system so my pitching is insane with Kershaw, Sale, Lester, Hamels and Liriano rounding out my top 5 starters. I won last year with a similar strategy so hoping for more of that…

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @jash: How many teams in your league that you have to resort to Beef Wellington. Which, by the way, is a delicious meal. I tried cooking it for New Year’s and it came out pretty decent..

          • jash says:
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            @malamoney: ha! Only 10 teams but I figured he’s the best out on waivers and Grey has him ranked above the rest of the guys here… would you pick any of Weiters, Realmuti, Ramos, Montero, gomes, castro, or swihart over The Beef? Thanks!

  8. Jose says:
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    Malamoney i just trade michael brantley for carlos gonzalez…do you think is a good trade?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Jose: I’d want Brantley…

  9. Shivdaddy says:
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    When I change any of the scoring system, the FVARz gets screwed up. Any Ideas? #DIV/O!

    Thanks

    • NCPhilly says:
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      @Shivdaddy: I saw this #DIV/O! value in the FVARz column of all sheets, prior to me changing anything, in OpenOffice Calc. The solution on each position’s sheet was to scroll down beneath the list of players at that position and click on the cell beneath “Standard Dev FPTS” and in the formula bar erase LONG( and one of the closing parentheses, then click the checkmark icon in the formula bar.

      • Shivdaddy says:
        (link)

        @NCPhilly:

        So I went to catcher and scrolled down and I see #DIV/O! for Standard Dev FPTS and Replacement Z. When I click on each cell I get the following.

        Standard Dev FPTS
        =STDEV(LARGE($C$2:$C$24,{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14}))

        Replacement Z
        =LARGE($E$2:$E$34,14)

        What do I need to delete change? Thanks for your help.

        • NCPhilly says:
          (link)

          @Shivdaddy:
          Change Standard Dev Pts to:
          =STDEV($C$2:$C$24;{1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;11;12;13;14})

          I didn’t have to change Replacement Z: after I changed Standard Dev Pts the Replacement Z showed up instead of #DIV/O!

          If you’re using Microsoft Excel, I might be leading you astray: I’m working from OpenOffice Calc and do not have an Excel license on my computer.

          • Shivdaddy says:
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            @NCPhilly:

            So I made the changes like you said and no longer have the error for z scores. BUT, now the top player at each position has a 0 Z- Score and everyone below him has a negative one. What went wrong?

            Thanks

            • NCPhilly says:
              (link)

              @Shivdaddy: I have the same thing (e.g. Kershaw has 0 Z-Score on the starting pitcher sheet, but I don’t think that is incorrect. I didn’t even notice if the top player at each position had a 0 Z Score or not before I started “fixing” the #DIV/O! problem.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Shivdaddy: What is the scoring system you are changing to?

      • Shivdaddy says:
        (link)

        @malamoney:

        I am only changing the values of stats you already have listed. I also am not using excel. I am using LibreOffice Calc. I would get the error for all batters as soon as I would change singles from 1 point to 1.3 or changing wins from whatever to 10 points.

        Pitching Categories Points
        Win 10
        Loss -4
        Save 7.5
        Blown Save -2
        Inning Pitched 2
        Strikeout 1
        Walk -1
        ER -1
        Hit -0.2
        Hold 0
        Quality Start 2.3
        Complete Game 5
        Shutout 6.5
        No Hitter 10
        Perfect Game 20
        Hit Batsman 0
        Wild Pitch -0.25
        Balk -0.5
        Start 0
        Run 0
        HR Allowed -0.5
        Intentional Walk 0
        Pickoff 2
        @malamoney:

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Shivdaddy: I don’t have any experience with LibreOffice Calc. I have it on one of my Ubuntu machines, but haven’t tried it…

  10. NCPhilly says:
    (link)

    One additional step after customizing to input your own scoring system, if you happen to be using OpenOffice Calc instead of Microsoft Excel: after sorting the FVARz column in descending order on the Overall sheet, you will have to fix the Rank column. Change the value of E2 to 1 and E3 to 2. Then click once on cells E2 and E3 while holding down the Ctrl key (or the CMD key if you’re using a Mac). Release the Ctrl key and double-click the bottom right corner of the E3 cell (you probably see a small square in the border there). This step is necessary in order for ADPRD to be accurate.

    • Shivdaddy says:
      (link)

      @NCPhilly:

      Great tip NCPhilly!

  11. Deuce says:
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    Malamoney! Great stuff man. My league is a bit different and drafts in 20 hours. If you can find time, can you tweak the spreadsheet for my draft? Here is the league rundown:
    14 team league. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 3 OF, 1 UTL, 5 SP, 2 RP, 7 Bench.

    Hitting Categories / Points
    Run Scored 2
    RBI 1
    1B 1
    2B 2
    3B 3
    HR 4
    Walk 1
    Strikeout -1
    Hit By Pitch 1
    Stolen Base 3
    Cycle 25

    Pitching Categories / Points
    Win 5
    Loss -5
    Save 7
    Blown Save 0
    Inning Pitched 3
    Strikeout 2
    Walk -1
    ER -2
    Hit -1
    Hold 0
    Quality Start 5
    Complete Game 7
    Shutout 7
    No Hitter 25
    Perfect Game 40
    Hit Batsman -1

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Deuce: Drop me an email (not a deuce) at [email protected] and I can send you the results.

  12. ebudz says:
    (link)

    You have been successfully unsubscribed!

    this is exactly what i needed! my only question after inputting my scoring system in and re-sorting the FPTS column in the overall rankings tab is if i should pull the trigger on a trade i received earlier tonight? he offered me correa for donaldson and my 1st pick (pick number 40)

    i’m in a 10 team keeper league where we start C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Util, (3), SP (4), RP (3), Bench (5) and i got last pick in tomorrow night’s snake draft. the 3 keepers make up our first 3 picks so essentially the draft starts in round 4 and i was planning on keeping trout, scherzer and donaldson. i’m not sure if my roster settings and league size would affect the excel calculations have correa ranked #4 and have donaldson ranked #15 … i declined the trade earlier but after seeing these outputs i’m not sure if i should pull the trigger considering i can still pick at 41 and get back to back picks throughout the rest of draft?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @ebudz: How is your first pick number 40? Or is that based on after keepers? I’m not sure I can make that trade. I LOVE Correa, but Donaldson and a first pick is a lot. Or is it Donaldson and a 5th round pick (after keepers)? How long can you keep a player?

      • ebudz says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: this is year 2 of this keeper league and so far i believe we would just keep keeping any 3 players before the start of each year?

        my picks look like this:
        round 1: pick 10 [overall 10] (keeper selection)
        round 2: pick 10 [overall 20] (keeper selection)
        round 3: pick 10 [overall 30] (keeper selection)
        round 4: pick 10 [overall 40]
        round 5: pick 1 [overall 41]
        round 6: pick 10 [overall 60]
        round 7: pick 1[overall 61]
        round 8: pick 10 [overall 80]
        round 9: pick 1 [overall 81]
        etc… total of 21 rounds

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @ebudz: I couldn’t make that trade. Even though you still have a pick at 41, then you don’t pick again for 18 picks! So if the first real pick is at 31, then between 31 and 59, you will have picked one player in 28 picks. Yes, I realize you then get 2 picks at 60 and 61, but then you wait another 18 picks. See if you can do Donaldson and your pick at 60. That I’d consider. But even that I’m not very thrilled…

          • ebudz says:
            (link)

            @malamoney: alright cool i appreciate the help man!

            any other tips you might have or a general draft strategy? it’s tough not knowing 100% who everyone is keeping so i just realized trying to mock draft is impossible so i’m just going into my draft with my excel rankings and a pen to cross guys off

            my rankings have a lot of RPs highly ranked so i’m also tempted to grab jansen and/or kimbrel with my 1st picks? i remember last year i used your rankings and i think i went back to stud RPs at one point so maybe it’s no coincidence i won my league?

            if it helps at all here’s my scoring settings:
            hitter scoring: HIT (+1), RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 2B (+1), 3B (+2), HR (+3), BB (+1) SB (+1)

            pitcher scoring: WIN (+3), LOSS (-3), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+3), ER (-2), HIT (-1), NH (+10) PF (+15)

            thanks again for all the hard work you put into this!

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
              (link)

              @ebudz: I definitely wouldn’t grab an RP with my first pick if there are still studs for the taking. Just keep this in mind, your first round is really the 4th round. As simple and obvious as that sounds, not everyone completely does the math. Unfortunately you pick at the end of the round, but often there are teams with more keepers than they can keep. These are players that would be drafted in the first 3 rounds if there were no keepers. These players become first (actually 4th) round steals. Posey in the 4th would be great. Same for Cano…

              • ebudz says:
                (link)

                @malamoney:I’m now being offered Correa, his 5th round pick (44th), and his 7th round pick (64th) for Donaldson, my 5th round (41st), my 7th round (61st), and my 9th round pick (81st)… worth it?

                • malamoney

                  malamoney says:
                  (link)

                  @ebudz: So if I have this right, it’s really Correa for Donaldson and your 9th. You’re just swapping picks in the 5th and 7th rounds.

                  • ebudz says:
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                    @malamoney: yup basically… so accept the trade?!

                    • malamoney

                      malamoney says:
                      (link)

                      @ebudz: Sort the “Overall” by both FVARz and ADP and look at the players around 81 and see if you are comfortable giving up Donaldson and one of those players for Correa…

  13. Jerry says:
    (link)

    Hey, Malamoney! Great article and insight. Do you like Holliday, Melky, or Alex Gordon for this season? Im in a head to head points league and am looking at a left fielder bench spot. Thanks for the help!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Jerry: Thanks Jerry. Melky then Gordon then Holliday. I could see going Gordon over Melky if you preferred…

  14. malamoney

    malamoney says:
    (link)

    Torii Hunter should be deleted from both the “OF” and “Overall” worksheets…

  15. Jerry says:
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    Ok, thanks. How about Piscotty this year? Would you take a flier on him or play it safe with Gordon or Melky?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Jerry: Sure, I like Piscotty. He will probably play more RF though. Still might lean towards Melky. It’s just about 6 of one, half dozen another…

  16. Tulanian says:
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    Awesomeness. But I don’t get how I should adjust to match the numbers of players at each position in my league? We use C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF,OF,OF,Util,Util,P x 7, with 9 bench. Does this relate to the “C (14), 1B (20), 2B (14)..,” numbers in the STDEV(Large(…)) functions?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Tulanian: Thanks!

      You are probably ok with not changing the numbers of players at each position. The values used in this spreadsheet are close enough for your league. Just update the point values for the different hitting and pitching categories.

      • Tulanian says:
        (link)

        @malamoney:
        That’s reassuring… but I’d like to better understand what the magic numbers for each position represent. I’m not afraid of hacking my Excel to tailor it more closely. What if I wanted to increase the priority of picking one position, like SP?

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          @Tulanian: I have a program that uses number of teams and number of players started at each position to determine how many players to include at each position. It also accounts for average number of points scored at a position. Once I run this program and get the results, the numbers you see in the Excel sheet are just my way of using Excel to account for said number of players…

  17. Diti51 says:
    (link)

    So I am in a 12 tm H2H pts league. Get 10 puts for wins, 7 for saves, and Kershaw clear #1 asset. I pick at 4 spot, so already confirmed: Trout, Harper and Goldy will be gone. Would you draft Kershaw at #4?
    C-1B-2B-SS-3B-OF-OF-OF-Utility. SP-SP-SP-SP-RP-RP with 6 man bench.

    Thanks and love the spreadsheet and ability to look at ADP discrepancy for bargains in rounds.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Diti51: Yes, I would be taking Kershaw with the #1 pick.

  18. Steve Kooker says:
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    Wade Davis only 25 saves?
    Really?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Steve Kooker: The projections used are the result of averaging my projections with several others. Plus I also did the projections about 2 weeks ago. You are welcome to update the 25 to any value you feel is more appropriate. All values will auto update. You will just have to re-sort the columns. Personally I have him at 33.

  19. Jimmy Bond says:
    (link)

    great stuff. would be great to get this earlier next year if possible to incorporate with my war room sheet :)

    One suggestion – on the ‘Overall’ tab you have hard coded the rank fir FVarz, and the rank for ADP.
    A better way to do this, since the FVARz might change depending on people’s points settings, would be to have a dynamic ranking. I learned how to do it this year so I don’t profess to be an expert, but try this formula in your ranking column instead of hard coded:
    =RANK(C2,OFFSET($C$2,0,0,COUNTA(C:C)+1,1))
    put this formula in the first cell of your rank column, and then copy down. In this case it is ranking whatever column C is, dynamically so if the points values change that column’s values the rankings also change dynamically (so change all ‘C’ references to whatever column you are targeting)

    • Jimmy Bond says:
      (link)

      @Jimmy Bond: or even just
      =RANK(F3,F:F,1)
      use 1 at the end for ranking low to high, 0 for high to low

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
        (link)

        @Jimmy Bond: There are definitely improvements that can be made to my spreadsheet. Thanks for the ideas…

  20. Jimmy Bond says:
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    I also think that Tapia is a bit aggressive. You have him ranked as if he will break get 538AB which seems a bit high given he was reassigned to the minors. As a result he shows up in the top 100 hitters. I thought it was an error on my part but it is in your own spreadsheet :)

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Unfortunately my projections are not a work in progress and they are not updated. I created them two weeks ago and have not updated them. I wish I had such time…

  21. ebudz says:
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    Just finished my draft in my 10 team H2H Points league with a weekly 12 start limit. It was my first draft with keepers taking the place of picks so I went into it with Grey’s rankings and a your excel ranking spreadsheet but still a lot of uncertainty. I ended up trading away Donaldson, my 5th round (41st), my 7th round (61st), and my 9th pick (81st)for Correa, a 5th round pick (44th), and a 7th round pick (64th) right before the draft started and here’s how my team turned out:

    (1) C: Posey
    (1) 1B: Abreu
    (1) 2B: Odor
    (1) SS: Correa
    (1) 3B: Seager
    (3) OF: Trout, JD Martinez, Brantley
    (1) UT: D. Murphy
    Bench: (n/a)

    (4) SP: Scherzer, Matz, Rodon, Walker
    (3) RP: K. Jansen, Familia
    Bench: (R. Iglesias, Odorizzi, Corbin, Ventura, Severino)

    Hitter Scoring: HIT (+1), RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 2B (+1), 3B (+2), HR (+3), BB (+1) SB (+1)
    Pitcher Scoring: WIN (+3), LOSS (-3), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+3), ER (-2), HIT (-1), NH (+10) PF (+15)

    What do you think?!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @ebudz: I like it a lot. I see four players (Trout, Posey, Correa and Scherzer) that I have listed in the top 10. In a 10-team league, that’s good work.

  22. Alex M says:
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    Where do you source the ADP numbers? I checked fantasypros and the ADPs between Cbs, yahoo, ESPN, are completely different than yours (eg Maikel Frano much higher on your list than all others)

  23. Baseball Fan 2000 says:
    (link)

    How would you adjust for a 10 team league with following position rules: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 2B/SS, 1B/3B, 4 OF, 2 Util, 5 bench, and 10 general pitching slots.

    Essentially the difference is there are 2 utility slots (can be any position), a middle infielder, a corner infielder, 2 fewer bench spots, and very importantly, no distinction between starters and relievers.

    I’m guessing the main difference is that I should pretty much value starting pitchers in general over relievers, but I would love to hear if this changes anything else.

    Scoring rules fairly standard/same as yours, except you get an extra point for any hit (for batters), and on the pitching side, its -2 for each Earned Run and plus 2 for a Quality Start.

    Thanks,

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Baseball Fan 2000: Here’s how many players I’d account for at each position: C(12), 1B(20), 2B(15), 3B(16), SS(15), OF(50), SP(70), RP(25)

      • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
        (link)

        @malamoney: Thanks!

        • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
          (link)

          @Baseball Fan 2000: Thanks for the stuff! I’m a little confused by this however. Grey said that in H2H leagues with general pitching slots I should draft a lot of starting pitchers, but according to your rankings, relievers are more valuable (Jansen is 12 I believe). Which one is right?

          • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
            (link)

            @Baseball Fan 2000: Or is it maybe that I should draft relievers, and all my bench spots should be starting pitching that I can insert when they start?

          • malamoney

            malamoney says:
            (link)

            @Baseball Fan 2000: My rankings show you how RP stack up against everyone else. A lot of people hold off on selecting RP until an RP run starts. But if you treated RP like any other position, now you have an idea of how each RP ranks. If I had 10 general pitching spots I’d have to evaluate the league’s scoring system to determine how many of each I started. In most leagues, including yours, SP score more points on a weekly basis. But you have to check each week and weigh your options. But with 10 spots, I’d likely have mostly SP. Unless I had a stud RP. And “stud RP” is defined as any RP who is getting lots of save opportunities and capitalizing. We know who we expect them to be preseason, but new ones always seem to each season. You also have the law of diminishing returns. If every team starts 9 SP, then you have 90 SP off the board. In your league the 90th or so SP is Jake Peavy who is expected to score 265 points this season. Do you really want to be starting him on a regular basis. There are a little over 20 RP expected to score more points than 265. So that means 2 of the 10 slots should be used by RP. That leaves 8. Then that means 80 pitchers. The 80th pitcher is Chris Tillman and he will score about 286 points. There are a lot of SP that will score about this many points. To me, that makes Tillman someone that can be found on the wavier wire. My number of 70 lands us at Ubaldo Jimenez and his 298 points, which is 94 points below the average number of points scored by the top 70 SP. I’m not saying you shouldn’t roster and start a lot of SP, I’m just saying that when figuring out their value, there’s a point where their value is not very significant when examined at a “full season” perspective…

            • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
              (link)

              @malamoney: Wow thanks for the in-depth reply! I think I’m gonna use the numbers for replacement value you mentioned earlier, but since I expect most of my friends to follow standard rankings, I’m going to lean drafting more starters and then adjust accordingly if they use a different approach. Again, thanks for the tips!

  24. Black Widow says:
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    Hello, Goldy or Harper with 3rd pick? Thank you!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Black Widow: I need more info on your league…

  25. Dundeeslugger says:
    (link)

    Using your rankings and my scoring, Kershaw is the highest scorer by about 25 points.
    1st pick in 12 team league. Do I pick Kershaw #1 or do I take Trout or Harper? The drop off to the next pitcher I could possibly get after it makes it back to me thinks Kershaw, but I’ve always been told not to draft pitchers that early.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      @Dundeeslugger: Let’s say you don’t take Kershaw. Your next pick is pick #24. Then let’s say by that time 10 pitchers have been taken. It’s hard to guess how many will be pitchers, but 10 is less than half. That leaves you with Carlos Carrasco if you then take a pitcher. He projects at 359 points. That is 134 points less than Kershaw.

      Now let’s say you don’t take Trout (he’s the pick over Harper) and his 467 points. At pick #24, 10 outfielders are gone. That leaves you with Michael Brantley and 368 points. You lost out on 99 points.

      Do you want Kershaw and Brantley or Trout and Carrasco? I’m sure it won’t actually work out like that, but you should look at the SP and OF you might expect to get.

      However, at the end of the day, this is not an exact science. After all, we are using projections which are ultimately educated guesses. In this example it’s really close. And your league’s scoring system works out nicely where hitters and pitchers are not very far off. You are ok with either pick, but I think Kershaw would be my pick.

  26. James says:
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    Hello, looking for help with my final keeper – Pollock in the 10th or Sano in the 14th?

    Standard points league – steals worth 2pts.

    Thanks

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @James: Pollock. However if your league doesn’t subtract a point for strikeouts, I’d have to think about Sano…

  27. SpotieOtie says:
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    Thanks again for the spreadsheet and projections, they’re going to be a yuuge help in my two longstanding H2H points leagues. I’m joining a work league this year that’s been around a while. It’s a total points league, which is new for me, and their scoring categories are a little weird. I was wondering if I could get your help with retabulating the spreadsheet? I really appreciate it and I’m looking forward to another season of you’re writing.

    16-team, Yahoo
    Hitters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, Util
    Pitchers: 7 (no set SP or RP slots)
    Bench: 6

    40 acquisition limit, 1450 IP limit

    Hitting points: R +1, RBI +1, 1B +1, 2B +2, 3B +3, HR +4, SB +1, CS -1, BB +1, HBP +1, GIDP -1, Errors -1

    Pitching points: W +10, L -5, CG +5, IP +3, SV +13, H -1, ER -1, BB -1, HBP -1, K +1, Holds +4, Save Opportunities -5

    So far I’ve ignored GIDP and Errors when tabulating projections. My research into the league’s history indicates that these categories don’t really differ much from season to season and among teams. My plan is to be mindful of guys with bad ground ball tendencies or atrocious defensive abilities if deciding between players, but I haven’t really thought to put it in my spreadsheet.

    As for the “save opportunities” stat, I’m perplexed on how to treat it. So far I’ve just reduced saves to +8 and made blown saves -5. If you know of a better way, I’m all ears.

    The draft is on Wednesday night, so I know it’s a quick turnaround. Any help you could throw a guy’s way would be tremendously appreciated.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @SpotieOtie: Sorry, just getting a chance to look at this.
      Yes, I’d ignore GIDP and Errors for now and I agree with how you are handling saves and blown saves. That’s actually how I figured to do it before I finished reading your post. If you email me at [email protected] I can send you the updated spreadsheet for your league…

      • SpotieOtie says:
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        @malamoney: Gah! Didn’t see this until it was too late! I was able to play around with the ranges to get updated z-scores and plugged in holds to the spreadsheet. Draft didn’t go how I wanted it to, every time my pick came around I felt like I was in a valley where it was too much of a stretch to grab a closer. Gonna have to pray for another closer-pocalypse and try and flip some of my excess outfielders.

        C – Posey, 1b – Duda, 2b – Cano, 3b – Seager, ss – Correa, of – Heyward, of – Calhoun, of – Yelich, ut – Deshields
        SP – Strasburg, Richards, Quintana, Gibson, Miley, Berrios; RP – Will Smith, Colome, Joe Smith
        Bench – Fowler, Melky, Reddick

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
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          @SpotieOtie: For a 16-team league that’s not a bad team at all. I like the bats for sure. RP is pretty pitiful and SP pitching could use a little help, but when you factor in it’s a 16-teamer, not bad at all…

  28. Iron Shiek says:
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    Might you be able to get me some overall rankings based on my league’s scoring system please and thanks? I would appreciate it. My league’s scoring system is the following. What would be your first round strategy?
    1B Singles 1 point
    2B Doubles 2 points
    3B Triples 3 points
    BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
    CS Caught Stealing -1 point
    E Errors -1 point
    GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 8 points
    HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
    HR Home Runs 4 points
    KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
    RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
    SB Stolen Bases 1 point
    PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
    B Balks 3 – 5 Bs = -1 point
    6 – 8 Bs = -2 points
    9 – 11 Bs = -3 points
    BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) 3 – 5 BBIs = -1 point
    6 – 8 BBIs = -2 points
    9 – 11 BBIs = -3 points
    12 – 14 BBIs = -4 points
    15 – 17 BBIs = -5 points
    BS Blown Saves -2 points
    CG Complete Games 5 points
    ER Earned Runs -1 point
    HA Hits Allowed 2 – 3 HAs = -1 point
    4 – 5 HAs = -2 points
    6 – 7 HAs = -3 points
    8 – 9 HAs = -4 points
    10 – 11 HAs = -5 points
    12 – 13 HAs = -6 points
    14 – 15 HAs = -7 points
    16 – 17 HAs = -8 points
    18 – 19 HAs = -9 points
    20 – 21 HAs = -10 points
    22 – 23 HAs = -11 points
    24 – 25 HAs = -12 points
    26 – 27 HAs = -13 points
    28 – 29 HAs = -14 points
    30 – 31 HAs = -15 points
    HB Hit Batsmen 3 – 5 HBs = -1 point
    6 – 8 HBs = -2 points
    9 – 11 HBs = -3 points
    INN Innings .1 – 1 INN = 1 point
    1.1 – 2 INNs = 2 points
    2.1 – 3 INNs = 3 points
    3.1 – 4 INNs = 4 points
    4.1 – 5 INNs = 5 points
    5.1 – 6 INNs = 6 points
    6.1 – 7 INNs = 7 points
    7.1 – 8 INNs = 8 points
    8.1 – 9 INNs = 9 points
    9.1 – 10 INNs = 10 points
    10.1 – 11 INNs = 11 points
    11.1 – 12 INNs = 12 points
    12.1 – 13 INNs = 13 points
    13.1 – 14 INNs = 14 points
    14.1 – 15 INNs = 15 points
    15.1 – 16 INNs = 16 points
    16.1 – 17 INNs = 17 points
    17.1 – 18 INNs = 18 points
    18.1 – 19 INNs = 19 points
    19.1 – 20 INNs = 20 points
    K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
    L Losses -2 points
    NH No-Hitters 10 points
    S Saves 4 points
    SO Shutouts 5 points
    W Wins 6 points
    WP Wild Pitches 3 – 5 WPs = -1 point
    6 – 8 WPs = -2 points
    9 – 11 WPs = -3 points

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Iron Shiek: How players do you start at each position?

  29. Kyle says:
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    Play in a 10 Team League
    My League uses the following roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF (3), Util (2)
    SP: We only get 7 starts per week.
    RP(3) and 2(P) Spots that can accommodate for more RPs or your SPs if you have everyone going on the same day.

    23 Players Total per Team. Anyway to adjust the rankings… or get it closer? I already entered my league’s scoring settings.

    Thanks appreciate the post!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Kyle: Where did you enter your scoring system? I don’t see it. Send it to me and I will do it for you. Thanks…

  30. Joe says:
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    Is there any easy way to take out NL players from the database? I am in a 10 team AL only points league, I know taking out NL players will have a big impact on position scarcity. Any ideas?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Joe: Can you wait until tomorrow? I am going to have a new post and I plan to attach an updated version and I could probably add that column for you…

      • Joe says:
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        @malamoney: Yes that would be perfect my draft is Saturday evening so that would be great, thank you very much.

  31. Pete says:
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    Can you please tell me the number of players at each position you would use to find the replacement player at each position based on the following:

    12 team, 23 man roster. Start: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, 4 OF, UTIL, 1 RP, 4 P (i guess assume SP). 4 moves per week, so people tend to do a lot of streaming. Figure most people only keep 1 bench player and the rest are pitchers. I don’t think more than 16-18 RPs will get drafted because it’s so SP heavy but I could be wrong.

    I think i’ve figured out how to modify your sheet for everything else.

    Just in case you need it, here’s the points system:
    Hitting Categories Points
    Run Scored 2
    RBI 2
    1B 1
    2B 2
    3B 3
    HR 4
    Walk 1
    Strikeout -1
    Hit By Pitch 0
    Stolen Base 3
    Pitching Categories Points
    Win 10
    Loss -6
    Save 8
    Blown Save 0
    Inning Pitched 2
    Strikeout 2
    Walk -1
    ER -2
    Hit -1
    Hold 0
    Quality Start 5
    Complete Game 3
    Shutout 0
    No Hitter 0
    Perfect Game 0
    Hit Batsman -1

    I’ll send you in email too just in case.
    Thanks!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Pete: I will get to this later tonight along with my updated projections…

  32. Jason Morgan says:
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    In standard points leagues would you take Carlos Correa over Anthony Rizzo?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Jason Morgan: Correa ten out of ten times. Even if I was directly related to Rizzo I am still taking Correa…

  33. Dan says:
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    This spreadsheet rocks almost as much as Dee Snider………..

    My league’s rosters: C,1b,2b,3b,ss,of(3),DH (best available bat), SP(5),RP(2), bench(6). If you have time would love to have this speadsheet, thanks.

    Also, hitters seem to be more predictable than SPs – ie, Rizzo and Bumgarner ranked about the same but Rizzo would be the safer pick, right?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Dan: Thanks. I will get it to you tomorrow.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Dan: What is your scoring system?

  34. Bill says:
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    In a dynasty format how much should I value prospects? I’m considering trading Glasnow and Puig for Springer. It’s a points league.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Bill: I’d rather have Puig and Glasnow. In points leagues I’d rather have Puig over Springer by themselves. Throw Glasnow into the mix and it’s a no brainer…

  35. Alex says:
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    I just got offered the 4th pick overall for #11 and 16, in a 4 player keeper league with 16 teams. Basically trade would be Franco for Blackmon and Seager. Worth doing the deal? Seager would turn into a keeper but I wonder if Franco will turn into a top 10 player in a year or so. My keepers are Correa, Marte and Gordon.

  36. Kaya Simmons says:
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    Hey man I know it’s late but I’m hoping you can do me a solid.

    12 team league, roster size is: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 5 SP, 2 Rp, and 5 bench spots.

    Hitting categories:

    1b- 1
    2B-2
    3B- 3
    HR-4
    RBI-1
    Run-1
    Sb-1
    Walk-1
    HBP-1
    Tb-1
    K-1
    CS-1
    Grand Slam-10
    Cycle-25

    Pitching Categories
    IP-3
    K-1
    ER-1
    H–1
    BB-1
    HBP–1
    QS-3
    CG-5
    Complete Game-10
    Shutout-10
    No Hitter-20
    Perfect Game-25

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