Strong takes are my thing. Whether it be needling Baseball Prospectus over their Jorge Alfaro ranking, clashing with consensus over Rhys Hoskins, or why Shohei Ohtani wasn’t a bust before he ever threw his first regular season pitch. My opinions are strong, and I’m not one to back down if I truly believe something based on first hand looks and research. I mean, don’t even get me started on the “newly-promoted” Tyler O’Neill takes. It’s almost as if I’m the head of my very own agency, lobbying for my players value like Scott Boras with a briefcase of binders.  Yet another player who’s represented by my pretend “on-line defense agency” is Padres rookie phenom Joey Lucchesi. I ranked him 161st in my mid-season 2017 Top 200 prospects, and even predicted a 2018 MLB debut. I’m not alone on this site in my love for Lucchesi, my best friend since forever, Lance, wrote about him as a deep sleeper in late March. There’s also this tweet I tossed out there in December. Needless to say, without further chest thumping, I’m a fan of Lucchesi. There’s been a bit of misinformation out there regarding his repertoire, pedigree, etc. Today I hope to set some of that straight after watching his most recent turn against the San Francisco retirement home.

 

Scouting Report: I wrote a whole bunch of words regarding Lucchesi in my Sunday morning post just a few short days ago. It was prior to this start, so it is 100% unaffected by this start. Here’s what I had to say, “This Padres system is so deep that a pitcher I hold in high regard can drop all the way to the teens. Despite his detractors, and skeptics, Lucchesi has defied the odds and found success in the early part of his major league career. Pig-backing a meteoric rise through the Friars system in just a season and a half. A combination of stuff, pitchability, and deception, from a downright awkward delivery, has continued to baffle the competition across several levels. Lucchesi’s fastball sits 90-94, but generates lots of swings and misses, with it’s angle, movement, and pinpoint accuracy. Lucchesi’s changeup sits 80-82, and gives the looks of his curveball out of his hand. So far in his MLB career the lefty has been heavy on fastball-changeup, perhaps some curveballs were incorrectly marked. It comes as a surprise that it’s a pitch he’d stay away from, as it was regarded as a solid above-average offering during his time in the minors. There’s two camps with Lucchesi; those that believe Lucchesi’s luck will eventually run out, and big league hitters will unlock the code, or those like myself, that believe Lucchesi is truly good at all the little things, and though unorthodox, feel his attention to detail will drive continued success.” I failed to mention in this blurb that Lucchesi has one of the better pickoff moves in the minors, and that he’s actually the first pitcher (second player), to make it to the majors from the 2016 draft. We’ll try and differentiate the curves and the changes in this post, but it’s hard, as the changeup is essentially a curveball with a changeup grip.

He throws three pitches, whether you choose to believe it or not, he confirms it, those that followed him coming-up-in-the-minors confirm it, and Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley confirms it. There’s also been this narrative that Lucchesi throws about as hard as Kyle Hendricks. His fastball tops out at 93-94, and sat 91-92 during several starts in AA last season. But the biggest question marks regarding Lucchesi surround his mechanics. He has a long, complicated delivery with a windup that starts above his head, like some cliche pitcher out of baseball’s “deadball era”. Needless to say this earns him the label of “deceptive lefty”. That label is never a vote of confidence from scouts, and their often pre-conceived notions about players they place in certain buckets. There’s no denying that Lucchesi has met each level with results that exceed expectations, and packs a combination of swing and miss, deception, and command. Let’s see what he’s got.

 

Joey Lucchesi vs. The San Francisco Giants, April 15th, 2018 @ Petco Park

First Inning: First batter of the game, Austin Jackson, gets a middle-middle 0-1 fastball that he takes for a ride to center. But before it can do any damage, it’s caught, as he’s retired by Franchy Cordero at the warning track. Lucchesi got away with one there. The following batter, Joe Panik, grounds an inside fastball to first base for the second out. Tough angle on the righty, as the fastball seemed to cut in on his hands. Starts Andrew McCutchen out with fastball on the outer-part of the plate for a called strike one, follows up with his first off-speed pitch of the game, getting a chase on a high changeup for strike two. A 92 MPH fastball is bounced to third base, as Villenueva tosses to first for the final out of the inning.

Summary: Outside of the first pitch of the game, 7 of Lucchesi’s 8 pitches were strikes, including two called strikes on the two-seamer. Locating well after the mistake to Jackson. Good inning.

Stats: 8 pitches, 7 strikes, 1 swinging strike, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 BB.

Second Inning: Opens up against cleanup hitter Nick Hundley, who proceeds to drop one into the outfield for a hit. This is followed by another hit to right on a liner by Evan Longoria, after the former Ray gets a fastball inside on a 1-1 count. Threw a curveball in the Longoria at bat too. Little more loopy, with less dive than the changeup. Lucchesi gets up on Hunter Pence 1-2, before dropping a curveball on him for a swinging third strike. Next he’s up on Belt 1-2, before Lucchesi gets a pop-up deep on the third baseline, one that Villenueva rushes for but just misses on a sliding dive. Next pitch, Belt hits a changeup to rightfield, it hangs up just long enough for Hundley to beat the throw to the plate by Jose Pirela for the game’s first run. The lefty works the count full to number 8 hitter Kelby Tomlinson, before he gets a whiff on the outer part of the plate from a nasty changeup.

Summary: Tough inning for Lucchesi, had a couple of balls drop in for hits, and then Hundley scored on a sacrifice fly. He settled down after that to get the punchout of Kelby Tomlinson after running the count full.

Stats: 23 pitches, 17 strikes, 3 swinging strikes, 1 run, 2 hits, 0 BB

Third Inning: Opens the frame with a punchout of Tyler Beede on three pitches, including the called strike three below. Nice pitch as Lucchesi lands it on the black with the changeup. Next batter he falls behind 2-1 to Austin Jackson, before the journeyman drops a hit in this time, as he takes a changeup to center for a bloop hit. In the following at bat Lucchesi gets Joe Panik to bite on a 1-0 fastball high in the zone, and the second baseman slaps a groundball to the first baseman, who starts the inning-ending double play.

Summary: Nice bit of pitching there, no hard hit outs, even the hit that dropped in there, was a bloop. He’s commanding his stuff well, and hitting his spots.

Stats: 9 pitches, 6 strikes, 2 swinging strikes, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 BB

Fourth Inning: Starts out Cutch, fastball, changeup, changeup, curve, before getting the veteran All-Star to bite on a changeup in on his hands. See Below… Next up is Hundley, who gets up 2-1 on Lucchesi, before hitting a ball between the shortstop and second base for another base hit. Lucchesi then gets down 2-0 on Evan Longoria, before tossing three straight strikes, including a questionable curve at the top of the zone. Seeking revenge in the next at bat, Gangly Manbird-Hunter Pence exacts revenge, dropping a single to left. The lefty comes back the next at bat to strike out Brandon Belt, after running the count full. Inning over…

Summary: Couple of weekly hit balls dropped. But other than that Lucchesi K’d two all-stars this inning, and got a third on Belt. Nibbled a little more, but it looks as if he’s trying to get some chases on balls further out of the zone.

Stats: 22 pitches, 13 strikes, 4 swinging strikes, 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 BB

Fifth Inning: Starts the fifth off getting into a full count with Kelby Tomlinson to leadoff the inning. He stifles the threat with a weak flyball to center. Gets up 1-2 on Gorkys Hernandez before making him look silly on the fourth pitch of the at bat, a curveball high and tight on the inside. See below… Next up is nemesis Austin Jackson, who Lucchesi runs the count full on, before getting him to bite on a curveball on the outside.

Summary: Really nice inning from Lucchesi, he had to battle back, but he won all three battles, to have his best inning of the game. Not a lot of hard contact today outside of that deep flyball from Austin Jackson in the first at bat of the game.

Stats: 19 Pitches, 12 strikes, 2 swinging swings, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 BB

Sixth Inning: second pitch of the inning gets a ground ball to first from Joe Panik. Easiest outs of the game have come off the bat of Panik. Lucchesi then gets up on Cutch 0-2, before dropping in a nasty changeup for a check strike three. The final batter Lucchesi faces on the day is Nick Hundley, who Lucchesi retires on just two pitches.

Summary: Even better inning from Lucchesi, getting a two groundouts from Panik and Nick Hundley, with the strikeout of Cutch wedged in-between. Very good outing, and he’s done for the day after getting through 6 innings on just 88 pitches.

Stats: 7 pitches, 6 strikes, 2 swinging strikes, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 BB

Final Line: 88 pitches, 54 strikes, 14 swinging strikes, 5 hits, 1 runs, 0 Bb, 9 Ks, W, Gamescore: 72

Conclusion: The fastball sat 90-92 all day long, with both the changeup and curve hitting spots high and low in the zone, on the inside and outside part of the plate. The changeup is used far more frequently in on the hands, and on the outer-part of the plate, while the curveball tends to be used earlier in counts, high in the zone. They bleed together, but the changeup dives a little more, while the curveball is more loopy. His command of the fastball was very good, making a couple of mistakes, but all in all he spotted it very well to both sides of the plate, using it effectively to drive pop-ups a couple times up-in-the-zone. While I do not expect this sort of success to continue, I do see Lucchesi as a higher upside number three, with a true swing and miss pitch, and above average control. With the backdrop of Petco, Lucchesi should be held in all formats until further notice. This isn’t a multi-time all-star, but it wouldn’t shock me if he returned more value than Kevin Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez, and host of other highly rostered starters.

 

If you enjoy my content and want to say, “Hey, Thanks Ralph!” donate to my quest to buy a radar gun. If that’s not pathetic enough, follow me on twitter @ProspectJesus

 

  1. roger says:
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    Great breakdown! In a QS league, would you drop any of Maeda, Stroman, and Pivetta to grab Lucchesi?

    I try to package these guys for an incremental upgrade but hard to get anyone to bite.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @roger: Likely Maeda, as good as he can look, his usage is so wonky. In QS you gotta roll with Lucchesi because you know he can get through 6.

  2. b the esq. says:
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    Great analysis!

    Rank ’em RoS in a QS instead of Wins league… Lucchesi, Manea, Wheeler, Miklos, Wacha, Newcomb

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @b the esq.: Thanks B!

      Manaea, Lucchesi, Wacha, Mikolas, Newcomb, Wheeler.

  3. Member Berries says:
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    Ralph!
    You are definitely prospect Jesus and I listen/read religiously. I believe the Gospel spoken by Brother Ralph.

    I own Heavy stock in Lucchesi Hoskins and Kingery (ONeil too) at value has been huuuge in deep leagues.

    Dan wrote a little something on Anibal Sanchez. I’m curious if you’ve seen him throw. His numbers look great… so drop some knowledge, Brother Ralph

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Member Berries: I plan on watching more of Anibal this week. Only saw the tale end of the good start last week. Any insights? Need to update my Top 100 pitchers in a couple of weeks.

      Thanks for reading, I’m glad it’s helping.

  4. los locos says:
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    Ralph

    Where do you rank Erod and Duffy?

    Would you drop Ryu and Wheeler for those two guys?

    My current staff is pretty good, so those two players would be bench options and streamers.

    Kershaw
    Strausburg
    Bundy
    Nola
    Taillon

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @los locos: I would make those drops for ERod and Duffy, higher floor, and higher upside.

  5. Nolarado says:
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    12 team h2h dynasty league yahoo 6×6 extra cats are ops & holds

    I’ve been offered Schoop for Price. I have plenty of pitching, so this would be a no brainer for me if Schoop wasn’t on the DL, my DL is full and I have two players on the dl rotting on my bench. My stating 2b at the beginning of the year is Odor…

    Even though it is a dynasty league, I can’t believe I haven’t dropped Odor already anyway.

    SP’s include Kershaw, Morton, Wood, Hendricks & Weaver

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Nolarado: If it’s dynasty and you’re already injury ravaged take the deal.

      • Nolarado says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        Would you drop Odor then?

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Nolarado: Can’t trade him? If not then yes.

  6. Ron "Rondell" Dell says:
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    Thanks for the breakdown, Ralph! I’ve been fighting the urge to use Lucchesi’s spot in my line-up to stream all week. But it’s feels good to have your insights line up with my instincts. I’m holding! And might even start him in Arizona, but I don’t know. Streamonator is meh on it. What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Start him — him is short for humidor

  7. Another Dan says:
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    Thanks Ralph,

    Great stuff. I like Lucchesi, I think the fact that he pitches in the NL West gives me more faith.

    What are your thoughts on Ian Happ ? I have Realmuto in a 16 team dynasty H2H league. Rostered Ianetta whilst Realmuto was DL’ed, now being offered Happ for Realmuto. My gut says, take it because Realmuto is a catcher after all.

    What would Ralph do?

    Best wishes,

    Dan

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Another Dan: take Happ.

  8. Luke says:
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    Ralph,

    Your podcast improves my days drastically. Thanks for that.

    I have Zunino coming off the DL this week. I’ve plugged in Ianetta who has performed admirably in his absence. But you fully expect Zunino to out perform Ianetta ROS right? Just want to make sure I drop the right guy.

    Also, do you think there’s any chance Josh Fields gets a shot at the 9th for my Dodgers?

    Much appreciated!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Luke: Thanks man! I’m glad to hear that. One of the reasons I do this is to make someone happy. Glad it’s working!

      I think so, but stranger things have happened in Coors. Wait, that sounds weird now. Is Seattle the upside down Coors?

      I’d dump Ianetta.

  9. Play Ball says:
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    Drop Brian McCann for Zunino? Better counting stats ROS?

    I’m in a standard, 10-team season-long roto.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Play Ball: I would, you gotta gamble on Zunino’s pop.

  10. FishKid says:
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    Ralph, 9 team NL only keeper. Drafted Holland for $14 and Melancon for $2. Fortunately got Norris as reserve – Hicks also. I have Duggar and Osuna as $5 prospects for this year + 2 more. Would you drop either to pick up Pedro Baez (likely for $1 or $2) considering Jansen’s ‘struggles’ and my potential need? Thanks.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @FishKid: I’d dump Duggar for baez.

      • FishKid says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks Ralph. And I have Lucchesi too, but didn’t start him until this week. Apologizing in advance for likely kiss of death.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @FishKid: Damn you!

  11. LenFuego says:
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    Very nice work, Ralph. One nitpick: all the videos were off-speed stuff. There is some pretty great stuff there, no doubt, but I would have loved to see a fastball for comparison.

    • Robpopp says:
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      @LenFuego: maybe check w yr isp, may just be the wi-fi ;p

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @LenFuego: Unfortunately, I’m limited in terms of video skills. Last week my co-host on the Baseball Show Andy Singleton helped me with some screenshots. He didn’t have time this weekend unfortunately. So what MLB will let me use in GFYCAT is highlights. I’m trying to get some screen capture software that would allow me to do full at bats. Believe me, those videos last week with Harvey made my life easier.

  12. Robpopp says:
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    i had a daydream this afternoon in which Jansen was ousted from his throne by a horse-mounted Walker Texas Buehler. Then I woke up and my boss was like dude, wtf. Think there’s a chance?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Robpopp: not anytime soon if ever

  13. jaygatzwillnotdie says:
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    What do we make of the Tyler O’Neill call up? Is he going to get enough playing time to consider dropping Villanueva or Haniger (my UTIL bats)?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @jaygatzwillnotdie: I wouldn’t drop ether of those guys right now. Love O’Neill but it’s wait and see, unless you got a spot to burn.

  14. J-FOH says:
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    I hold a special place in my nads for Lucchesi. As you may recall I added him off the wire in our old Devil’s Rejects league about a month into his career. What a move by me.I saw the numbers then found an interview with him and he was hungry to get to the bigs. He felt disrespected in the draft and has since soared on up. My only question now is did the putz who took over my team keep him and/or did they trade him to Trudeau. BTW, I don’t miss the hypocritical bullshit league one bit. Between that asshole BJ and the rest of the weirdos they can all kiss my ass

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @J-FOH: Tell ‘em how you really feel!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: let me put it this way, if this was a live draft certain league mates would need a security detail around them the entire time.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @J-FOH: Hahahahaha

  15. FishKid says:
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    @Ralph Lifshitz: As Steve Martin would say, I blamea myself.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @FishKid: Ha!

  16. FishKid says:
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    whoops, sorry men. That was supposed to be in response to Ralph daming me for not starting Luccesi until this week.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @FishKid: Hahaha! You’ve been damned!

  17. Fantasy phein says:
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    Hey Ralph, who u like better in a weekly 5×5 h2h lge? Teoscar or Michael Brantley? It is a deep keeper too, prolly would be tough for either to crack my keepers tho. Thx!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Fantasy phein: Teoscar! Better health, good lineup spot so far.

  18. Pager24 says:
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    Hey Ralph,

    These rainouts are killing me. It’s been tough holding onto Senzel instead of streaming. You still holding? I don’t want to be that guy if u think he’s up next week or something ha

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Pager24: Depends on the format. Only place I own him are in dynasty. Don’t think he’s up until June actually.

  19. Hurt Yoenis says:
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    What’s a good 1b/3b bat to target in a trade for corbin? Cheers!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Hurt Yoenis: Who has extra CI in your league and needs a starter?

  20. hitzone says:
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    Dynasty league 5×5 obp

    Lose Kiermaier or Clint frazier for dl room

    • hitzone says:
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      @hitzone:
      2) Pirela or mallex smith as OF flyer

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @hitzone: Lose Kiemaier and add Mallex

  21. Brian says:
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    Quick question. Juan Soto is available in my H2H dynasty league. As a Nats fan, normally, I’d scoop him up immediately, but I’m defending champ, off to a 2-0 (likely 3-0) start and I’ve been hit hard by injuries (dropped Healy and Kiermier and have Schebler, Andrus, Lamb, and Britton on the DL (and I’m just waiting for AJ Pollock to go there).

    When do you see him up? Do you see him as a legit .300 / 30 HR potential player? As a corollary, there are several players you ranked higher than Soto available including Luis Robert, Royce Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Jo Adell. Do you still have them all ranked in front of Soto for dynasty?

    Also, what in G-ds name do I do with Lewis Brinson? You still holding out hope for him?

    Thanks for all your help!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Brian: If you can hold Brinson then do it. The guys ranked ahead of him are are the Top 25 prospects in the game, if there’s several of them available my guess is you don’t need to stash him unless you have a spot you can sit on for two years. Best case scenario he’s up late 2019. And yes, he has middle of the order upside. .300/30/100 type.

      • Brian says:
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        Thanks. Held Brinson and even started him for his 2 HR game (thanks Streamonator). Really appreciate the advice.

  22. I'm Keith Hernandez says:
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    Samardzija or Lucchesi for rest of year?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @I’m Keith Hernandez: Give me Lucchesi, screw Shark! It all depends on Shark’s health. If he’s healthy he should be better, but he’s not, so there!

  23. David says:
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    Which side Ralph in dynasty where holds is also a category: Merrifield/Mancini or Kingery/Hader? Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: Kingery and hader side easy

  24. Play Ball says:
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    10-team, season-long standard roto. My team is losing key players to injury. Only have two DL slots. I have Schoop, Knebel, Buxton who are on the DL already. If Freeman’s wrist is broken, I’m going to need a producer. Thinking I need to drop Knebel for a bat. Agree?

    1B Freeman (DL) / Abreu
    2B Schoop (DL) / Merrifield
    3B Moose
    SS Bregman
    OF Trout / Ozuna / Springer / Pollock / Buxton (DL) / Acuna (Minors)

    SP Kluber / Severino / Bauer / Godley / Corbin / Weaver / Quintana
    RP Rivero / Allen / Doolittle / Knebel (DL)

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Play Ball: Agree you’ll need some depth with all thos injuries.

      • Play Ball says:
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        Thanks Ralph.

        I could try and move Luke Weaver or Quintana for a bat good bat.

        Or looking at available FA (not much to choose from)…trade a SP or go with?

        Moncada
        Lowrie
        Toescar
        Hicks
        Swasnon
        Gurriel
        Brantley (only a matter of time before he’s on the DL too)
        Kemp
        Bour
        Cesar Hernandez

  25. Lovedarooks says:
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    Bettis Lucchesi OR Stratton in a 5×5 rest of year over Mchugh?
    Problem is I have 2more moves for the rest of year- ( DL move OR SENT TO MINORSis unlimited)
    DONT WANT TO WASTE THE FREE WAIVE IF THE GUY DOES NOT START ALL YEAR AND GETS BANISHED TO BULLPEN
    I need more k and wins

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Lovedarooks: Lucchesi

  26. Trust the Process says:
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    Awesome write up Ralph! I’m in total rebuild mode … 12 team roto.. forever keeper… my farm is getting crazy good thanks to you …. was just offered his Rodgers for my Manaea…

    Farm includes
    Senzel
    Calhoun
    Royce Lewis
    Welker
    Austin Hays
    Baez
    Dustin Fowler
    Ramos
    Robert
    Marsh
    Dahl

  27. akboognish says:
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    Great stuff, Ralph! Really appreciate your analysis.

    Lucchesi or Snell in a QS league? ERA, K/9, WHIP, IP, and sv are other pitcher stats.

    Thanks!

    • akboognish says:
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      @akboognish: Woops, or Odorizzi?

  28. Play Ball says:
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    Standard 5×5 season-long roto. Possible trade in play where I give up Ozuna and Weaver for Judge. I think Weaver is replaceable. Also, there’s a 200 games started max in my league and having seven starters has me above the pace. Do you like this deal?

    Current roster

    C B. McCann
    1B Freeman / Abreu
    2B Schoop / Merrifield
    3B Moustakes
    OF Trout / Ozuna / Springer / Pollock / Buxton / Acuna
    SP Klubot / Severino / Bauer / Quintana / Corbin / Godley / Weaver

  29. Brett says:
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    Ralph I know you love prospects, when do you see Torres coming up for the yanks?

    Thanks

  30. ichirosan says:
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    Hi Ralph,

    what kind of return would you need to part with The King in the the North in a 16 team H2H dynasty?

  31. Dougie says:
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    I love the pitcher profile, but dude, I miss the top 100.

Comments are closed.