I decided to take a peeksie at Mock Draft Central’s Average Draft Pick board and grab nine players that I thought were overrated from their top 75.  If MDC could talk, I think even it would agree that some of these draft picks make no sense.  I tried to grab at least one overrated player from every round if you were doing a ten team 2009 fantasy draft.   There were more than nine overrated players by my calculations, but I didn’t want to spoil the top 20 lists that are on their way this coming Monday.  Muahahahaha… Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2009 fantasy baseball:

9) Josh Hamilton –  Why is he in the 1st round?  Cause he kicked crack?  You people need to chillax.

17) B.J. Upton – I like a BJ as much as the next guy, but a low-priced one is even nicer.  Upton’s a third round pick.

27) Dustin Pedroia – Is spunkiness now a category?

34) Jason Bay – I think this pick means people aren’t sure what to make of a lot of other guys.  Your inner monologue, “Oh, shoot, I don’t know if this Carlos Quentin guy is for real… Screw it, I’m grabbing J-Bay.”

43) Russell Martin – Position scarcity-schmarcity.  Last year, Martin was outdone by Lastings Milledge and Garrett Atkins in a terrible year.

53) Magglio Ordonez – This is another J-Bay type pick.  People are scared of Nate McLouth so they’re going with the reliable and yawnstipating Mags.

65) Cliff LeeBuh-buh-buh– But he won the Cy Young!

68) Garrett Atkins – If you follow his home run regression from year to year, he’s due for 17 in 2009.  And he lost Holliday.  Yay.

75) Chone Figgins – This pick will shore up your sixth place finish.  Congratulations.

  1. Steve says:

    The BJ you make yourself wait for is usually worth it.

  2. Eric W says:

    @Steve: haha that cracked me up

    john smoltz to boston will probably miss the first month or so good dl stash or can we expect 08 curt shilling stats

  3. Upton is going way too early, he’s not 2B eligible anymore people! And 7 homers in the playoffs doesn’t = him hitting 30-40 in a regular season….

    You can probly add J-ROll to that list…. for monday of course

  4. @Eric W: Smoltz hasn’t shown signs of losing his fastball like Schilling so I’d say DL stash. Worth drafting late but be prepared to drop him if guys on your team get injured in April/May.

  5. Personally, I believe Cory Hart (56), Rafael Furcal (61), Jacob Ellsbury (69) and Francisco Liriano (71) are all getting valued a bit too high in these early drafts.
    I have Smoltz in one of my keeper leagues for one more season. Is he worth waiting for? The stats are weighted heavily toward pitching, and I can stash him away on the DL until he hits the active roster.

  6. @johnwhorfin: I agree with you on those four. They definitely have the upside to delivery on those draft slots but they carry more risk. I’ve been burned by Furcal for 2 straight years – I don’t think it’s wise to gamble on a SS and/or SBs from a player over 30… And I wouldn’t keep Smoltz – I can’t imagine anyone bidding more than a buck or two for him…

  7. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:

    If you’re in a league with 2B eligibility and you can snag Figgins as your 2B instead of Roberts at pick 80, then do that. As a CI, you’re wasting your time with him.

  8. Baron Von Vulturewins

    BaronVonVulturewins says:

    It’s funny how BJ’s postseason completely erased everyone’s memory of his entirely disappointing season-season. He’s basically going exactly where he went last year, when everyone expected 35-35.

    I can’t say I’ll be able to resist him again this year.

  9. Jeff says:

    Figgins is a schmohawk-in-training whose 31-year-old legs, injury issues and ONE home run last season have owners taking him 75th?!? If you really need steals that bad, why not just wait until the 188th and take Willy Taveras? I guess everyone still has a boner from his 2007 outlier…

    And I guess the dudes taking Mags at 53rd are eager to get Pronk’d in the new year. Though he’s been pretty consistent the last few years, I don’t know how you can justify taking a 35-year-old in the 5th ahead of McLouth, Haren or Dunn. Maybe it’s just me.

    As much as I agree that Atkins at 68 is a dud, have you seen the available talent at 3B behind him? Not too impressive, though if you miss out on one of the top guys it might be worth it to wait for Gordon at 161 or even Beltre at 185.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:

    @BaronVonVulturewins: You back to pretending you only have 18 comments and not your hefty 600+?

    @Jeff: Hehe… Nice rant. But don’t forget Mags hit 21 home runs last year! I already had a post about Gordon being a sleeper so agreed on that. I’m even beginning to like Beltre and Zimmerman and I never thought I’d say that.

  11. sean says:

    I guess I just don’t understand a lot of the hype this year. Maybe I’m just more cynical.

    If I see another drafter rattle off Bill James’ numbers for Davis and tell me he’s going to win the MVP this year, I’m gonna lose it!

    Should I focus on some of the previously overhyped youngsters putting it together this year on the cheap (Hughes, Scherzer, Bruce, Buccholz, Price, Snider, Maybin, Delmon Young, Hermida, Justin Upton, etc) because I’ve lost hope in being able to draft Davis, Votto, etc

  12. Grey

    Grey says:

    @sean: I love Maybin, Young, Snider, Bruce, Scherzer and Price this year. Everyone, but Bruce on that list seems to be going later then they should. BTW, nice move slipping Hermida in there. I’m not sure some of the kids playing 2009 fantasy baseball will even know that name.

  13. Tim says:

    @grey: “Is spunkiness a category”, only in those all Smurf leagues.

  14. Mark says:

    Hermida I view as an over hyped player. 2007 he had a .296 AVG due to a .356 BABIP. In reality he’s a .270 AVG at best and most likely lower. His contact rate is below 80% every year, and O-Swing has gone from 11-19-22-28 the past 4 years. Looking at counting stats he’s never had more than 75 R and RBI in a season, and never more than 20HR. His 162G avg has him at 73/18/68 with 6 SB. and in reality his injury prone nature makes him reaching 150G at a max. Then include the run suppressing park and I don’t see how he’ll be worthwhile to draft within the first 2 or so rounds. I know people may say that R/RBI is mostly situational, but there aren’t any substantial upgrades on offense that would increase the opportunities more so than the last 2 years.

    I’d like to see anyone’s arguments for drafting him within the first 16 rounds. (using 12 team mixed)

  15. Mark says:

    20* not 2 obviously

  16. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Mark: Well written point and I wouldn’t go near him in anything short of a fifteen team league that only used Marlins. My bad if I seemed to be endorsing him when I said nice move slipping him in. I meant nice move surrounding Hermida with viable guys to try and slip him passed. It’s like four hot chicks surrounding one homely guy to sneak him into a club.

  17. sean says:

    Did you just let Screech in the club?!?

  18. Steve1 says:

    I agree with all except Upton. His plate discipline improved dramatically this season, and for those who point to his power surge in the playoffs being smoke and mirrors, you have to remember that he was actually healthy. There’s no doubt his shoulder injury played a part in his lack of power during the regular season. He did hit 24 homers in 2007 after all.

    That being said, if he goes 20/40, as he is more than capable of doing, he will have lived up to a late second/early third round pick. Are there safer plays in that spot? Of course there are. But there are legit reasons in taking him there depending on your first or first two picks.

    The two players I see as most overdrafted that weren’t mentioned were D. Lee and Big Z. Zambrano has turned into Paul Maholm in a Cubs jersey and people are still drafting Derrek Lee thinking he’s going to repeat his 2005 season.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Steve1: Totally agree with Derrek Lee and Big Z. re: Upton — As I said above, I think he’s a third round pick, so he’s not far off, but at 17 he’s too high. That would only give you one pick before him (unless you’re playing an 8 team league, which is a silly league to play) so I’d find it hard to believe a scenario where you have only one player and Upton should be your second. I could see you having the right two players and Upton should be your third.

  20. Steve1 says:

    I agree. I took him around the turn in the first FBC mock. I could have chosen Longoria first and taken Upton second……then he would have been a third round pick I guess. lol.

  21. Someone had this recycled on their site earlier today… I stumbled upon it while blog searching Pedroia.

    Aside from that, I agree on most… leave Chone Figgings. He’s too underrated to be overrated. Maybe everyone forgot that he has no 2B/OF eligibility in ’09.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:

    @bfadds: Thanks for telling me you saw it somewhere else. I’d agree with you on Figgins if I didn’t see him at an ADP of 75.

  23. agarthered says:

    Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis are getting soooo much love in all the drafts i’ve been in, im beginning to think I’ll be putting tons of focus on guys like Bruce, Gallardo, and Delmon just like Sean mentioned.

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