We’ve made it to the halfway point, or thereabouts. What better time to play a little, “buy, sell or hold” with some outfielders on interesting good and bad rolls now. Of course, in non-trade leagues, you can’t actually buy or sell most of them, so it’s a bit of a theoretical exercise here. But hey, we all probably play in some trade leagues, I’ll look at Yahoo and see what actual transactions are going on….at least ones that look like there’s no keeper element attached to it, so they don’t tell us league specifics.
Jag Caglianone
77 June PA’s: .379/.468/.742, 7 HR, 17 Runs, 16 RBI, 2 Steals
It’s finally happening! The mega prospect famously “flopped” last season, mostly due to a crazy bad .138 BABIP and a tendency to hit way too many balls on the ground. His .321 xwOBA suggested better things to come, and his 22% K% was encouraging for a power hitter making his first go in the bigs. Well, it was more of the same through the first two months, if not worse, as his K’s ballooned to 30% and his LA only lifted from 4.1 to 7.2. At the end of May, he had just 5 homers in 195 PA’s and a .238 average. But since the calendar turned, he’s been on fire. The LA is up to 11.2, and he’s got a 93 EV and 17.6% Barrel%.
Verdict: Buy
I was bullish on Jac Cags in draft season too, it just turned out so was everyone else, and he had lots of helium, and my only share is in a draft and hold that’s an overall lousy team. He’s going to cool off from this pace for sure, but the power looks absolutely real. The batting average maybe not so much, but over a full season, he’s probably a 30+ homer, .250 guy, which really plays. I’d trade for him for sure.
Recent Trades
Well, Shota, yes…I mean, assuming a pitcher-for-hitter swap fits to begin with. An SP3 or so seems like a fair price. The Big Dumper though? I know it’s an underwhelming season for him so far, but I wouldn’t go that high here.
Bryan Reynolds
77 June PA’s, .319/.390/.623, 5 HR, 13 Runs, 13 RBI, 1 Steal
Reynolds is kind of the definition of a solid but boring vet. He’s 31 now, and his career is a metronome of solid consistency, or at least was until last season. He hit 24 homers in 3 of the 4 seasons between 2021 and 2024, and his 27 in the other, and had between 156 and 183 combined runs and hits in all of them, and batted at least .262 with between 5 and 12 steals. Just solid stuff, especially for deeper leagues. But then he really dipped in 2025 to the tune of .245 with 16 homers and 3 steals. Well, guess what, he’s back to Metronome Mode. On the year he’s hitting .287 with 11 homers and 5 steals, so it sure looks like 2025 was just a blip.
Verdict: Hold
It’s really tough to get carried away here. I doubt some age 31 breakout is upon us. He’s particularly scorching right here, right now as he hit .478 with three homers last week. But alas, that’s on a dream road trip with stops in Sacramento and Denver. Sell to anyone who wants to pay up for that, but otherwise just hang on here. Unless you’re in a league that includes Statcast Fielding Runs Value, he’s a helpful guy but not a league winner
Recent Trades
With Trey Yesavage for Kyle Tucker
Again, we don’t know specifics, but on principle I’d rather take a shot on Cole’s upside. Yes, I know he’s old and off an injury, and the K’s are down, but he’s shown flashes of his former ace self. As to the other, well. You usually “win” a Fantasy trade if you got the best player. But who is that actually? Which brings me to….
Kyle Tucker
.234, 6 Homers, 44 runs, 40 RBI’s, 6 steals
I know I write up Tucker all the time here, but I wanted to at least update my take on it! And vent my frustration. He has such an even keel demeanor and he’s on a team of superstars, so his half season has maybe flown as much under the radar as it can for a guy who signed for $60 million per season. He didn’t have the endless homer drought of Fernando Tatis Jr. or miss major time like other high draft picks. Or miss any time for that matter, he’s been healthy all year. But man, oh man, he just does nothing for us. And there’s no real sign it’s going anywhere, here’s his rolling 15 game wOBA
What’s worrisome is that his skills have really deteriorated. His K% is at a career high 20.5%, and his EV is at 88.9, his worst ever. Blast/Swing is a stat that measures how often you square up a ball at a high bat speed. It correlates well to both power and average. Junior Caminero leads all qualified hitters at 20.7%, followed by Yordan Alvarez and Juan Soto. That’s the kind of company you want Tucker to keep, yet he’s at just 8.3%, placing him 124th out of 154. Instead, he’s hanging with Willi Castro, Daulton Varsho, and Jakob Marsee.
Verdict: Sell
It’s just not happening. Guys on big contracts often take some time to acclimate to their new surroundings. It may happen yet with Tucker, but it’s half a season, and he really looks like a shell of his former self. The counting stats look fun as they should batting in that lineup. But he often finds himself in the 6 or 7 hole now after starting the year up top.
Recent Trades
Tucker and Yanier Diaz for Austin Riley and Jackson Merrill
Ok, the 2nd trade was me, and I actually traded for Tucker even though I’m not optimistic. But hear me out. It’s kind of a “my disappointments for yours” transaction that the other guy initiated. All four in there are having tough seasons. Merrill and Tucker are vaguely similar 5-category upside guys, and I like Tucker better (or dislike him less). And it’s a 14-team two-catcher league, so I really liked swapping Riley for Diaz as Riley just looks absolutely cooked, and I wasn’t even starting him.
But in general, I’d sell Tucker at a loss, just not this big a loss.
Riley isn’t cooked. He’s working his way back from core muscle surgery. A Normal recovery time from this surgery to full 100 percent is a year. That will be August. He’s rolling over on pitches while compensating for his lack of core strength. He won’t be right this year. Cooked? No. A wasted draft pick by you? Yes.
You can get him cheap next year because everyone thinks like you.
If you’d ask questions and do a little research, you’d get some really good information that would help explain why some of these players are struggling. With AI, it’s all at your fingertips. But that would take some actual creative thinking and legitimate work and that’s too hard for this generation.
Spoken from one sports writer to another.
First time all year I’ve had the stones to bench Andy Pages. He’s sits in the catbird seat at 2 in that Dodger lineup but has done nuthin’ for a solid 5/6 weeks. I sat him for Marsh who homered. Now I know why the Dodgers benched him. When he goes cold he contributes zero