The Bible is one book, yet duality reigns throughout. There is Old vs New Testament. Vengeful vs loving God. Wrath against sin vs grace towards sinners. Duality is also present in major league baseball, as players can have two different seasons within one. Jakob Junis (44.5% owned – increase of 21.8%) is yet another example. For the first four months of the season, Junis had a decent 8.22 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9, but was serving up gopher balls like how God sent manna down from the heavens. 2.02 HR/9 and 18.3% HR/FB helped contribute to a 4.52 xFIP. Since August 6th, though, the BB/9 is down to 0.98, HR/9 is 0.59, and HR/FB is 8.1%. The xFIP is a not-so-surprising 3.23. The walks, fly balls, and home runs are all down. EZ PZ. From a pitch selection perspective, he’s been throwing the fastball more (55.5% vs 51.9%) and off-speed less (curveball down 1.1% and change up down 2.1%). Here’s my issue. In 260.1 big league innings, Junis has a 2.25 BB/9, 1.52 HR/9, and 14.6% HR/FB. He’s young at 25 years old, so there’s the possbility that things have clicked. I’m fading that notion, though. He wasn’t as bad as the first four months indicated, and he’s not as good as the last two months have shown. I think the pendulum swings back the other way to settle somewhere in the middle. TRASH

Tyler Glasnow (14.6% owned – decrease of 10.4%) has not been good the past five starts: 7.86 K/9, 16.1% HR/FB, and 5.81 ERA. The xFIP has been 4.50 and the strand rate 54.2%, so some positive regression could be in the works. Let’s take at a look at the teams he faced. CLE, KC, and BOS are 29th, 23rd, and 30th respectively in strikeout rate. The one team that did blow him up for 7 earned runs was TOR, which is 11th in strikeouts. Baseball, man. He held CLE to 3 earned runs in 14 innings and gave up 4 earned runs to BOS. Did you know that BOS is freaking amazing? No shame there. Anyways, Glasnow still throws mid-90s, routinely has a K/9 above 10, and he gets TEX next, a team that is 5th in strikeout rate. TREASURE

Adam Frazier (16.9% owned – increase of 7.4%) is slated to start in right field, now that Gregory Polanco is done for the year. After delving into his numbers, I’m surprised Frazier is not more owned. 8.4% walk rate, 15.2% strikeout rate, .354 wOBA, and .177 ISO. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 5.9% and chase rate is only 27.6%. He also hits both righties and lefties equally well. Aaaaanannnndd, he’s now batting lead off for the Pirates. I’m out. Have to go pick him up in all my leagues. TREASURE

 

  1. Hepcat13 says:
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    Good write up! I have two questions:
    Is Glasnow still starting? Yahoo does not have him listed for an upcoming start.

    Do you like Urena against Philadelphia tomorrow?

    Thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Hepcat13: Thanks!

      I believe Glasnow is a 2-start pitcher next week.

      I do not like Urena in PHI tomorrow

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Butters: Ha! That’s gotta be his dad right?

  2. Harley Earl says:
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    Hey Ralphie,

    In line with today’s article, quick question. Niko Goodrum: Trash or Treasure?

    • Bowzer says:
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      I’d probably call him trash although there is a place for him depending on the format you’re in. I picked him up on FAAB in a 12 team keeper AL only league and have been very happy with the production I’ve gotten out of him (other than a weak batting average). He has great versatility around the diamond and looks to be a double digit threat in both homeruns and stolen bases. And that’s nice to have in this day and age with the stolen base becoming a lost art. Sounds like the Tigers plan on giving him a shot at the everyday second base job next year which would be nice.

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Bowzer: Yeah, he seems borderline to me. Good power and speed and great versatility. But has a hard time with the batting average and OBP. His production might be huge if he could raise the AVG and OBP by about 20-30 points.

        I like him but I don’t know if I want to commit to him.

    • Harley Earl says:
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      @Harley Earl: My bad, thought Ralphie wrote this article but it’s by Son!

      So, Son, would you trash Niko?

      • Son

        Son says:
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        @Harley Earl: Ha! All good. You know what you’re getting from Niko. As long as you good with that, the power/speed combo with multi-position eligibility is nice.

        • Harley Earl says:
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          @Son: Yeah, I like him. He’s a bench player for me that can fill in when other guys are off and when teams are traveling on Monday and Thursday.

          Like you say, you know what you’re getting with him. And that’s good enough for me for now! Thanks!

          • Son

            Son says:
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            @Harley Earl: For sure. Perfect bench guy

            • Harley Earl says:
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              @Son: Hey Son, follow up question about this.

              What about Yairo Munoz? Would you rather have Munoz or Goodrum for your bench? Seems like Yairo has the better overall bat but not the upside of speed/power. You like one better than the other?

              • Son

                Son says:
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                @Harley Earl: I’m good with Munoz as well. Depends on personal preference

                • Harley Earl says:
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                  @Son: Yeah, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of difference in either of them!

  3. The Skrimmer says:
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    I am considering benching recent dumpster jumpers: C. Correa and K. Calhoun for the last week of the championship round. In their place would be C. Hernandez and R. Zimmerman. (Unless there is a chance that Judge comes back for enough games this week.) Of those four, which two would you start? Thanks.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @The Skrimmer: I’m rolling with Correa and Kalhoun

  4. Thunder Thighs says:
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    Hi Son, I shoulda listened to your Trash call on Junis! Fortunately, it looks like I’ll survive my H2H matchup and be able to move on though. Could you help me with a couple questions?

    A. Which side of Monday’s KC @ PIT matchup do you like better? Keller or Musgrove?

    B. Which are the worst 3 or 4 starts out of the following? I need to start 8 of these. (Of course, I don’t have all of these SPs on my roster, so I’d have to make moves – the last 3 SPs aren’t on my roster atm).

    Clevinger vs BOS
    Stripling vs SD
    Ryu vs COL and vs SD
    Marquez @ARI
    Morton vs LAA
    Holland @SD
    Junis @DET
    Musgrove vs KC
    Keller @PIT and @Det
    Stratton @SD

    Thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Thunder Thighs: Ha! You are forgiven my son.

      A) Musgrove

      B) Clevinger, Keller, and Holland

      Good luck!

  5. Thunder Thighs says:
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    @Son: Many thanks.

    A. Gotcha

    B. Wow, I didn’t expect those picks. Some follow-ups:

    B1. Clevinger hasn’t been great against tough competition, but he’s been on a roll – you don’t think he can turn in a quality start against BOS. I know I should stick to being rational in my decision-making, but since Clevinger has been such a rock for me all season, I want him to be part of a potential victory, lol.

    B2. I’m suprised you like Junis over Holland @SD. Also, do you like Junis over Keller in general?

    B3. I’m feeling wary about Stratton even though it’s SD. What are you liking about him lately?

    Thanks for everything!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Thunder Thighs: Anytime!

      BOS is just so scary. Clevinger is good and has been good so I have no problems if you wanna roll with him.

      I just think Holland sucks and SD has some lefty mashers.

      As for Stratton, it’s SD. Ha!

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