When Jay(Wrong) first presented me with the opportunity to write about trash and treasure, I was confused and possibly even somewhat indifferent about tackling those subjects moving forward. I mean, who would be interested in reading about Duke “The Dumpster” Droese and “The Million Dollar Man” Ted DiBiase on a weekly basis (besides those who enjoy watching a disastrous car wreck unfold)? I finally shook the seasonally-inspired Wrestlemania cobwebs loose and realized that he was referring to the long-running Razzball series that Mike handled last season, which focuses on the most added/dropped players in the fantasy baseball universe. Crisis averted (for now).

The concept of this column is pretty straightforward: identify the players who have experienced the largest change in ownership percentage over the previous week and determine which of those players are deserving of their sudden gains or declines. Since our beloved RCLs are found under the ESPN umbrella, I’ll reference that data in this column.

Throughout the offseason, the main focus has been on your own preparations and player evaluations prior to draft day. In this series, we’ll take a look at how other teams/owners value certain players. Each week, we’ll look at two players: one from the most added list and one from the most dropped list. I’ll be taking a contrarian viewpoint on each player. The highlighted player on the most added side will be one who I feel is actually trash, while the player from the most dropped list will be someone who I consider to be a treasure.

This week’s post will be slightly different from what you can expect to see during the regular season though. We’re going to look at a couple of the biggest risers and fallers in ADP over the past week since fantasy drafts are still ongoing, and the majority of leagues that have already drafted aren’t nearly as active on the waiver wire prior to the start of the season as they will likely be in-season.

Let’s use Joc Pederson (+32.1, 163.7 ADP) as an example. Over the past week, his ADP has risen by more than 32 picks due to his impressive performance during spring training. Is this drastic rise up the rankings warranted? This is a player who produced a 33/30 season in AAA last season while managing a .303/.435/.582 triple slash as well. He’s followed that up with a .389/.421/.796 line this spring, including 6 home runs and 2 stolen bases. The 12 strikeouts in just 57 PA are mildly concerning, as is the 26.9% K% that he produced last season. However, his power/speed combo is increasingly rare these days, and he looks to have locked up the starting CF job for the Dodgers. Pederson looks like the real deal. Here are a couple of other big ADP movers over the past week in fantasy baseball:

Jayson Werth+13.7, 159.0 ADP

Werth has been an extremely valuable and consistent fantasy asset over the past seven seasons. From 2008-14, he averaged 22 HRs and 14 SBs per season with a .281/.375/.480 triple slash line, which includes his injury-shortened 2012 campaign. Last season, however, he produced his lowest HR and SB totals over that stretch (excluding the ’12 season) and experienced a 51 point drop in his ISO from .214 to .163. Factor in his offseason shoulder surgery and the fact that he’ll be turning 36 in May, and he’s better left for someone else to deal with this season. TRASH.

Brandon McCarthy-29.2, 260.0 ADP

The 260 ADP mark is actually quite misleading since it’s ESPN’s lazy cutoff mark that they prefer to use for any player who’s drafted with the 260th overall pick or anything below that number. A more accurate indicator of the general consensus on McCarthy is his paltry 10.9% ownership mark, which means that he’s currently unowned in almost 90% of all ESPN leagues. Should that be the case? Anyone who’s read my piece on him earlier this offseason knows that I think he’s being undervalued this season. While his spring performance has not been stellar (23 BB+H and 11 ER in 14.2 IP), he’s kept the ball in the park (just 1 HR allowed) and has displayed good control (only 3 BBs). Most importantly, he’s healthy and ready to take advantage of the vastly improved defense that the Dodgers should be producing this season. Don’t let another owner scoop him up off the wire and reap the rewards. TREASURE.

 
  1. Kid A says:
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    So is Joc Trash or Treasure!?!?!??!?!?

    You and your goddamn cliffhangers…

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Kid A: Haha. Just ask Wake. He’ll tell you…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Kid A: @Big Magoo: What are we talking about Stallone movies?
        The Rambos: nah
        The Rockies: uhhuh
        Cliffhanger: eh
        Stop! Or my mom will shoot: now we’re talking…
        Tango and Cash: Classic!
        His best work…prolly from Staying Alive…

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Wake Up: Rocky V: Brilliant!

        • Kid A says:
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          @Wake Up: Spin your bill and go Over the Top.

  2. Mike

    Mike says:
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    These were so much fun to write. You’re perfect for it! Great job Magoo

    • Kid A says:
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      @Mike: MIKE!!!

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        KID!!!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Mike: Thanks Mike! Just trying to fill your shoes. They fit like clown shoes on me, but I’ll do my best.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        Acromegaly is no laughing matter…the doctor gave me a pamphlet

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Mike: Was Andre the Giant on the cover? I know I wouldn’t laugh at him…

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            haha…he was!

  3. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Where do you think Joc starts/ends up in the lineup? Would really hate to see him in the 8 hole.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Steve Stevenson: I think he starts in the 7 or 8 hole, then moves his way up gradually. The Ks might be an issue, but he should be able to maintain a decent walk rate (10-12%), and his power/speed combo isn’t likely to be ignored in the long run in favor of players like Uribe and Grandal. Might take some time though.

  4. Wake Up says:
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    Big Magoo!!!

    Great read or some other thing meaning the bee’s knees.

    Speaking of bee’s, I like boo-bees.

    Have you ever seen one?

    Would you drop Joc Petarsan for Jason Worth?

    Muchos Thanksalotapuss!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HA!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Wake Up: Thanks! I like em too. Like bags of sand…

  5. chris says:
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    What are you thoughts of Jason Hammel? He played very in Chicago last year and so far having a pretty good spring.

    I drafted Dylan Bundy with my last pick of the draft this past weekend, I will probably drop him for either McCarthy or Hammel, hell even Bauer.

    There’s guys like Homer Bailey still out there who were not drafted in my 10 team keeper league. I just like Dylan Bundy and wish the Orioles would just bring the kid up.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @chris: I wouldn’t mess with Bundy in a redraft league. Sounds like there’s plenty of good pitching available on the wire. I like McCarthy the best out of those players, but you can probably just stream 1-2 spots and play the matchups.

  6. Colonel Angus says:
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    I’ve been debating whether or not to drop Werth or not to free up a roster spot. You really think he’s trash?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Colonel Angus: Depends on who you’d be dropping him for. I don’t think he’s worthless (werthless?) or anything, just that he shouldn’t be drafted ahead of guys like Pederson, Pollock, Revere, and Choo. I’d hang onto him if you’re just looking to free up a roster spot.

  7. mauledbypandas says:
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    how dare you call my Werth trash!!!! I am sending the phone spiders

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @mauledbypandas: Did I write this post with your Werth pick in mind? Maybe not, but how can you be sure? I’M IN YOUR HEAD, PANDAS!

      • mauledbypandas says:
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        @Big Magoo: Yeah it was a pick made with my heart not head, but still at 160ish a gamble is acceptable in my book.

        Great work by the way!

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @mauledbypandas: He’s fine there. Your track record speaks for itself anyway. And thanks!

  8. Kid A says:
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    Best man at the tiller on razz, Magoo. Real bang-up job all around.

    I wanted to own some Soler/Joc stock in an RCL last night so I pressed a bit and took them at 63/82 respectively. Was going to go full hype choo-choo and snag Bryant as well, but he went at #31. It’s a mad mad mad mad world.

    What’s your take on Valbuena and Rua now that they’ve locked down their positions?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Kid A: Thanks, Kid!

      As you might have noticed from the FCL draft, I’m on the Soler train. Looks like a beast in the making. Probably won’t run much, and the average looks like it’ll be in the .265-.270 range, but he has a good chance at 25+ bombs. Upside for more. Good counting stats hitting cleanup too. Joc’s a solid power/speed guy. Should be at the top of the lineup sooner or later. That’s crazy on Bryant. He needs to go 30/90 this year to justify that spot, and I think he’s a year or two away from that.

      Rua looks like more of a deep league option or a batty call than a true breakout player. He did have a huge year in single A ball back in ’13, but that’s light years away from major league competition. His power looks decent (think 15 HRs or so) but his speed and plate discipline look to be below average.

      Valbuena is a bit more interesting. Love the dual 2B/3B eligibility, has solid power, and good plate discipline. Has no speed and struggles to hit lefties, but he could be a valuable bench player or regular in a deep format.

      • Kid A says:
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        @Big Magoo:

        Good insights. Thanks bud.

        When do you see Kennys getting 1b eligibility in ESPN?

        • SteveNZ says:
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          @Big Magoo: @Kid A: Tomas wil blow them all away! *sobs into pillow*

          • J-FOH says:
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            @SteveNZ: you keep a pillow at work?

            • SteveNZ says:
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              @J-FOH: Zzzzzzzzzz

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @SteveNZ: Blow pops? Good call. It does look like he has a sweet tooth.

            • Kid A says:
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              @Big Magoo: comedy!

              • SteveNZ says:
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                @Big Magoo: @Kid A: He’ll weigh my team down all season long. Oofa!

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Kid A: I’ll be here all night!

          • Kid A says:
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            @SteveNZ:

            I’ve never seen a Moa cry.

            I bet it’s a beautiful sight to behold.

            Like a barfing unicorn.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Kid A: Good question. Not sure about that. Mauer is likely to play practically every day but might get the occasional day off against a lefty. And he’s obviously not the most durable player. Might take a while barring an injury to Mauer though.

          • Kid A says:
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            @Big Magoo: Dammit. Is it too late to get Skunk Beard on a plane to Florida to give Mauer a Gillooly special?

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @Kid A: Sounds like he’s willing to listen to offers…

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Kid A: plane? I got a Florida guy

  9. de nachos says:
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    Magoo give Gray the go-ahead to put your articles behind the paywall. I’m all in. Bravo. Marco. Polo. Let’s all go swimming.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @de nachos: thats funny they just approached me to pay them to post mine.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @J-FOH: You can use the top 100 hitters as a bargaining chip

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Big Magoo: laughs at my expense as a bargaining chip? Unlikely

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @J-FOH: Buck up, Jackson. Show em what you’re made of (and I’m not referring to revealing “selfies”).

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Big Magoo: I could take them all…or at least the spring training crew

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @de nachos: Haha, thanks! Swimming Scrooge McDuck style (just in monopoly money). I can dig it.

  10. de nachos says:
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    What do you FAAB bid on Jose Fernandez in a 10 teamer auction but we didn’t draft our reserves – commish F up. $200 season budget and start 7 P. QS, InnPitched, K/9 cats. My other starters are Scherzer Gray McHugh and Richards.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @de nachos: I’m not too high on Jo-Fer in a redraft. He’s unlikely to be back until after the ASB, and the control probably won’t be back to normal right away. Depends on how many bench/DL slots you have to work with too.

      If you really want him? Maybe $11 assuming this isn’t a keeper format.

      What other SPs are available in the reserve rounds?

      • de nachos says:
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        @Big Magoo: quite a few considering the shallow league and empty reserves. Latos. Ventura. Taijuan. Hutchinson. Anibal. Fister. Liriano. McCarthy. It’s weekly lineups. I wouldn’t mind one more SP, will carry 5 SP and 5 RP likely with one bench bat.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @de nachos: Some solid options there. Fister would hurt in K/9 but help elsewhere. The opposite for Liriano, except for ERA. With IP and QS as categories, that gives a bump to the workhorses. Hutchison might be a good target there. He’s healthy and doesn’t have any sort of IP limit hanging over his head. Should come fairly cheap too.

          • de nachos says:
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            @Big Magoo: thanks, sound advice. You see the news about Axford’s kid getting bit by a rattlesnake? His two yr old – might lose his toes. Crazy.

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @de nachos: No problem. That is crazy about Axford’s kid. Sucks. Just another reason to hate Colorado if you’re a pitcher.

  11. de nachos says:
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    Hosmer staying hot! (RBI Swinging bunt.)

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @de nachos: That’s par for the course for Hosmer…

  12. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Monsieur Magoo – love the stuff as always.

    asking Grey’s advice on another thread as well – but I just finished this auction for a 12-team h2h 6×6 (OPS + QS, with net saves and net steals) and am curious to know what you think. Steals are light, but I’m not sure it necessitates Sagnoffing the wire just yet.

    C – Wieters
    1B – Joey Bats
    2B – Wong
    3B – Seager (K – $1)
    SS – Tulo
    OF – Sweet sweet Giancarlo (K – $33)
    OF – Soler
    OF – Leonys Martin
    Util – Belt
    Bn – Avisail

    SP – Arrieta
    SP – Carrasco
    SP – Richards
    RP – Cody Allen
    RP – Benoit
    P – Fiers
    P – Taijuan Walker
    Bn – Paxton
    Bn – Brett Cecil

    2 DL spots and Ramos is on the wire for C which is probably the first move…

    let me know what you think if you have a chance. Thanks!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: That roster looks very solid. I wouldn’t worry about steals too much. Martin and Wong should swipe about 55-60 bags between them, and most teams aren’t getting steals out of their C, 1B, and 3B slots anyway. You can always add steals off the wire in-season as needed. Not as big of a deal when OPS is an additional category. Pitching looks strong. Nice start!

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Big Magoo: thank you Sir

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Big Magoo: and because one question is never enough – I’ve got another league (10 team h2h2 standard scoring) – keep 2 for auction. who should I roll with? would hate to throw Puig back for that, but I definitely want an elite SS in this one…

            Dozier – $10
            Hanley – $20
            Springer – $1
            Puig – $11

            thanks

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @SheriffMcRawDawg: Springer’s a no-brainer at that price. Sounds like you want to keep Hanley with him. I’d go with Puig though, especially if you start 5 outfielders. That’s a great price for him and it’d probably be easier to reacquire Hanley if you wanted to.

              • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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                @Big Magoo: thanks – it’s actually a 3 OF league w/ no MI or CI (and downsized from 12 to 10 teams this year) but I think you’re right regardless. have to take the value on those two (Springer/Puig) and throw a little extra $ at Hanley again if need be.

  13. Ante GALIC says:
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    Big Magoo!!!

    Great article, great idea. Had a question?

    Whom do you prefer this year in a seasonal re-draft H2H points league: Werth, Mookie or Myers?

    I have Mookie as my OF3 (3 OF, super shallow league) and both Myers and Werth are on the waiver wire.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Ante GALIC: I’d prefer Betts there. That kid has huge breakout potential, is more consistent than Myers, and doesn’t have the durability/age issues of Werth.

  14. sport says:
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    Hey Big, can’t wait to read more of these during the season.

    Just started a 15 team keeper league. 5×5 roto in yahoo so we have inning caps.

    My staff is Arietta, Corrasco, Hughes, Latos, Paxton, Green, Duffy, and Salazar on the NATIONAL spot. I generally b want good K/9 in yahoo leagues. Should I move Latos and Duffy? Or even Hughes? What would your assessment be of this staff in a 5 team roto yahoo league?

    Thank you for any input!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @sport: There’s plenty more to come, don’t worry.

      I’d definitely hang on to Arrieta, Carrasco, and Paxton there. Nice looking core.

      Hughes is solid too, but it depends what he’d fetch on the trade market. Should be a decent #3, but his BB-rate is likely to regress.

      Latos, Greene, and Duffy are basically matchup plays. Try to move Latos if/when he strings a couple of good starts together. Duffy’s not bad, and still has some upside, so you have options with him. Could be a nice back-end SP for you or give you an upgrade elsewhere if another owner values his upside.

      Looks like a quality group of SPs in a 15 team format. Good luck!

Comments are closed.