For the longest time, I thought Jonathan Schoop (59.3% owned – decrease of 8%) was pronounced like Salt N’ Pepa’s Shoop. It worked well when the home run numbers went from 15 in 2015…to 25 in 2016…and 32 in 2017. Jubilee from 1993. But then my world came crashing down when I discovered that it’s actually pronounced like Scope the mouthwash. If you ever come to LA, go eat at King Taco and use the red sauce. Then pour yourself a cup of Scope. Swish it around. Gargle it. Welcome to my world. Then 2018 Schoop appeared with the .198/.242/.344 slash. The only reasons I care about Schoop are because he had an ADP of 60.6 and he’s on my NFBC team, where I can’t drop his ass! Since I’m here, I might as well take a deeper dive. The walk and strikeout rates are normal. The ISO of .146 is well below his career average of .183. The BABIP is only .221, so regression should be in the works. Unfortunately, the line drive rate is way down, ground ball rate is up, and hard hit percentage is at a career-low 24.1%. He’s always had awful plate disciple, so those numbers remain terrible. The number that stands out to me, though, is the 4% barrel rate. Since 2015, Schoop had rates of 8.7, 6.7, and 7. I hate Schoop because he’s been terrible and his name is pronounced Scope, but I do think he gets hot at some point. That’s who he is as a player. He’s going to get his timing back, which will result in more barrels. He’s going to get more BABIP luck. He’s going to hit home runs. Most of the projection systems have him down for 13 home runs the rest of the season. I hate that I had to write those past sentences, but I endured swishing Scope in my mouth after an evening of King Taco. TREASURE
Avisail Garcia (34.1% owned – increase of 22.5%) is batting .365/.377/.827 with 6 home runs, 2 doubles, and 2 triples since he returned from the DL on June 22nd. So it’s been 53 plate appearances and the ISO is at .462 with a .406 BABIP. That’s hotter than the King Taco red sauce!!! This heater is obviously unsustainable, but what can we expect going forward? For starters, the walk rate is 1.9%. On the season, it’s at 0.8%!!! Ha! In terms of ISO, Garcia’s career rate is .146. You do the math. He’s smashing the ball (45.3% hard contact rate), but those plate discipline numbers are U. G. L. Y. You ain’t got no alibi, you ugly. 47.6% chase rate and 17.8% swinging strike rate. Uh, Earth to MLB pitchers. You may want to stop throwing strikes. Over. TRASH
Max Muncy (76.3% owned – increase of 11.9%). This is what I wrote on June 15th:
All Max Muncy (55.8% owned – increase of 43.7%) does is hit home runs. 4 straight games now and 13 on the season! In 157 plate appearances! Shout out to Paul “The” Martian, who has been touting Muncy for a few weeks now. Paul. My favorite Martian? Anyways, batting average? .277. Walk rate? 15.9%. Strikeout rate? 24.8%. The BABIP is a reasonable .291. The ISO is at .354. If he qualified, only Ma ma ma Mookie Betts (.381) and Mike Trout (.371) would have better numbers. Hard hit rate of 45.7% isn’t shocking, considering he hits a home run every night. Here’s where things get juicy. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 7.7% and he’s only chasing 19.4% of pitches outside the strike zone. Here’s where things get juicier. Muncy is actually better against lefties than righties. wOBA of .485 vs .412. For his career, .429 wOBA vs .322. He’s been entrenched in the two-hole of the batting order. Now, Muncy is 27 years old and there should be some skepticism of a late breakout. The projection systems have him batting .234 with a .190-ish ISO the rest of the way. That’s definitely within the range of outcomes and regression should be expected. But, but, but….stranger things have happened. And the underlying numbers really do look juicy. TREASURE
All he’s done since is hit 7 home runs with a .291/.466/.691 slash. The walk rate is 24.7% while the strikeout rate is 19.2%!!!! The ISO is at .400 while the BABIP is .265!!!
Uh, how is he not 100% owned in ESPN leagues? TREASURE TREASURE TREASURE!!!!
Yo Son, Great work per usual. Nice call on Muncy – I wish I had a share of him!
Since our previous convos, I’ve expanded my SP hunt from Snell to C-Mart, McCullers, and Carrasco.
A. How do you rank all four of these guys, first in terms of ROS performance and second with regards to durability – I’m looking for a stud arm that can help me in my 12 team H2H playoffs. My current staff is Morton, Quintana, Eflin, Bieber, Pivetta, Stripling, Gibson, Clevinger.
B. How do you utilize projection systems in the way you analyze players? It’s confusing to me that the razzball trade analyzer has someone like McCullers at $7.5, Luke Weaver at $9.3 when I feel McCullers is at least half a tier if not a whole tier above Weaver this year; and how is Quintana still at $16+ (okok, I’m just super frustrated with him atm).
C. Back to Muncy (who’s at -$13.7 btw, haha)… The manager who owns him also owns C-Mart. I don’t know what he thinks of Muncy, but I’m hoping he thinks it’s a good time to sell high. Out of my bats and pitchers, who might you pair to snag him and C-Mart? My bats are Posey, C. Santana, Kinsler, Bregman, Arenado, Trout, Cain (DL), Haniger, Merrifield, Cruz, Bauers (soon to be A. Hicks if my waiver add goes through). How about Posey plus Quintana for Muncy and C-Mart? I doubt that’ll be good enough since Quintana has been meh, and he has Cervelli coming back in a bit. Any other ideas?
His bats are Cervelli, Moreland, Peraza, Muncy, Story, Pollock, Inciarte, Soto, Yelich, Lamb, Schoop, Taylor, M. Gonzalez, while his SPs are Verlander, Bauer, Chacin, Montas, C-Mart, Strasburg (DL), Tanaka (DL)
@The Shoe: Thanks Shoe!
A) Snell, McCullers, Carrasco, then Martinez.
B) That is Rudy’s baby. Email him at [email protected].
C) Posey!!! What eligibility does Muncy have in your league? Trade proposals are always tough because I have no idea about league and team dynamics. Where is that team weak/strong? How does he value certain players? What is he looking for? Send out the scouts first, then assess an appropriate proposal.
@Son: A. I like McCullers better than C-Mart too, but do you think he’s as durable? Also, are you worried at all about Carrasco’s decreased velo and K’s (per Grey’s analysis)?
B. Gotcha.
C. Is that a “No, don’t trade Posey!” or a “Yah, trade him!” Muncy has 1B/3B eligibility in my league. I’m kind of warming up to trying to get Muncy along with C-Mart
Yah, I realize it’s hard to know what advice to offer without more context. I’ve contacted him about a potential trade but haven’t heard back – and I’m not sure it’ll happen soon since the dialogue between managers in my league is pretty slow/stagnant. I’m more likely to get a reaction from an actual trade proposal.
@The Shoe: A) They are both health risks, but I have a little more confidence in Lance. I’m slightly worried about Carrasco as well, both in terms of health and decreased velo. With that said, he’s still able to miss bats.
C) I don’t value catchers too highly, so “Yah, trade him!!!” I’m good with Muncy. He has an outside chance of getting 2B as well.
I hear ya. You know your league better than I do. His pitching hasn’t taken some hits. Not sure how willing he’d be to part with CMart. You never know until you try, though.
@Son: Tons of gratitude to ya, Son! It’d be awesome if Muncy gains 2B eligibility and I am able to get him since I’m lacking there a bit unless Kinsler/Merrifield can get hot.
One last question for now. What are your thoughts on Luke Weaver? What tier of pitchers do you think he can be in ROS? I’m just trying to think of other ace or near ace targets…
@The Shoe: I’m not a big Weaver guy. He’s in the Meh tier for me.