Just a few years back, I used to followed weekly blogs that would similarly give me weekly start em’, sit em’ recommendations such as this. And then my ego took over. “Why the hell should I listen to this guy?!” “What does he know anyway?!”I remember getting absolutely furious when a suggested stream would go bad and have a nerdy “expert” as my scapegoat. I mean, c’mon, isn’t it always fun to blame the nerd? So why should you listen to me and trust me with your lineup? Well, you don’t have to if you don’t want to. But in order to gain some credibility and hopefully your trust, I am going to track my weekly stats to show you how bad or good my suggestions have been for your OBP leagues.

Here are the results after Week 1:

 Period Plays H/AB R HR RBI SB OBP
Week 1

8

37/138 24 12 29 1 0.362

Keep in mind these are suggestions based on players owned in less than 50% of leagues, so don’t expect these numbers to always be sexy. I mean last week my title included John Jaso in the name if that gives you any idea of the sex-factor.

Each week, I plan to give you an idea of which teams have the most favorable and least favorable match-ups by looking at their opposing scheduled starters for the week. I do this by taking each opposing pitchers’ stats and giving you an idea of which teams should expect to score the most (and least) Rs, HRs, RBIs, SBs, and highest/lowest OBP for the week. I will then give you some suggested spot starts for the week based on the categories (players owned in less than 50% of leagues).

For the first full month of April, I will strictly be using starting pitcher statistics from last season to project out the week. However, as we move forward throughout the season, I will transition to the starters’ 2016 statistics so that I can give you the most accurate and relative numbers to help you win your roto league!

So sit back, relax, and get your pee pee ready for week 3!

(Keep in mind, the categories analyzed are for a 5×5 OBP format.)

Runs/OBP: Stats Against

For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Runs and OBP are concerned:

Favorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
1. Kansas City 4.73 1. LA Dodgers 0.337
2. Cleveland 4.66 2. Kansas City 0.343
3. LA Dodgers 4.57 3. Minnesota 0.324
4. NY Mets 4.41 4. Colorado 0.320
5. Chicago Sox 4.32 5. Toronto 0.324
Unfavorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
30. Atlanta 2.84 30. Atlanta 0.281
29. San Diego 3.19 29. Baltimore 0.289
28. Baltimore 3.31 28. Detroit 0.290
27. Oakland 3.33 27. NY Yankees 0.296
26. San Fran 3.44 26. Seattle 0.296

SP ERA= Average ERA for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP OBPA= Average OBP allowed for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The Run/OBP Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. SS- Alcides Escobar (Available in 53% of ESPN leagues): Alcides Escobar had a .293 OBP last year. He also has yet to take a walk in 2016. But I am from KC and homers do what homers want to do okay! And due to Ned Yost hating all things analytics, the man with the .293 OBP bats lead-off on a team that will score a crazy amount of runs next week. We should put him on our team.
  2. 2B- Howie Kendrick (Available in 55% of ESPN leagues): Now open your mind up and listen to me, Kendrick. I am your conscience, if you do not hear me, then you will be history, Kendrick. I know that you’re nauseous right now and I’m hopin’ to lead you to victory, Kendrick.

HRs/RBIs: Stats Against

For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as HRs and RBIs are concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
1. Chicago Sox 1.35 1. Kasnas City 4.47
2. NY Mets 1.23 2. Cleveland 4.39
3. Cleveland 1.21 3. NY Mets 4.35
4. Tampa Bay 1.19 4. LA Dodgers 4.28
5. Miami 1.18 5. Chicago Sox 4.13
 Unfavorable
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
30. San Diego 0.66 30. Atlanta 2.77
29. Cincinnati 0.78 29. Oakland 3.16
28. Toronto 0.81 28. Baltimore 3.25
27. Houston 0.85 27. San Diego 3.26
26. Atlanta 0.86 26. San Fran 3.26

SP HR/9= Average amount of HRs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP RBI/9= Average amount of RBIs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The HR/RBI Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. 3B- David Wright (Available in 63% of ESPN leagues): In his first nine games, David Wright has an OBP of .429 and has given everyone a little hope that he will once again have to be rostered by some poor bastard. And although he has yet to showcase his power, do the Wright thang and start him this week.
  2. OF- Avisail Garcia (Available in 85% of ESPN leagues): Avisail Garcia broke every rule of bro-code a few years back when he banged Prince Fielder’s wife. And he continues to let bros around the nation down with his lack of production and overly hyped expectations. But ole Avisail shall send a few balls sailing against pitchers that give it up easier than Prince’s wife. (Sorry if you are reading this, Prince!)

Stolen Bases: Stats Against

For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Stolen Bases is concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP SB/9
1. Cincinnati 0.87
2. St. Louis 0.67
3. Boston 0.63
4. Pittsburgh 0.62
5. Arizona 0.63
Unfavorable 
Team SP SB/9
30. Tampa Bay 0.31
29. Oakland 0.33
28. Chicago Cubs 0.35
27. Washington 0.39
26. NY Mets 0.39

SP SB/9= Average amount of SBs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The SB Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. OF – Mallex Smith (Available in 89% of ESPN leagues): Last year in AAA, Mallex Smith stole 34 bases in 69 games, and with the Braves facing pitchers who give up the 10th most SBs for the week, he is worth the play.
  2. OF – Jeremy Hazelbaker (Available in 54% of ESPN leagues): Good lord am I tired of hearing this guy’s name. In fact, I don’t even want to write anything on him other than: start this guy til he cools off like he should.
 
  1. Scooter G says:
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    Started the year projected to finish near the top of the league in hr, R, and rbis, middle of the pack in steals and dead last in obp. Obp is around 300 so far this year so not good. I wasn’t intentionally trying to point the category. Anyone in particular who loses value in obp format I should try to trade for someone who can improve my obp ? Or should I just point the category?

    10 team h2h 5×5 obp
    C R martin
    1b rizzo
    2b Dozier
    SS seager
    3b arenado
    Mi story
    CI Franco
    Of Springer
    Of c Davis
    Of heyward
    Of polanco
    Of deshields
    Util pagan
    Bn C Santana
    Bn schoop
    P: synder, carassco, Salazar, c-mart, Liriano, J Ross, Velasquez, maeda, krod, osuna

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Scooter G: almost all of your players gain value in OBP leagues minus Arenado so I am not sure how you would have been projected last. Only two weeks in so I say wait it out, you should be fine.

  2. LadyScorpio says:
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    Black people can pull of anything, huh? Really? Wow! That’s not a biased or over generalized statement in the slightest. Being Black, I will say that it’s not a remark I appreciate. I find it offensive and totally inappropriate for Razzball.

    When has race ever been a factor when it comes to SBs??? There are LOTS of White players that are fast. Your articles are usually informative and useful. However, that remark lowered the integrity of the info that you are sharing.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed, LadyScorpio, it was a bad attempt by him for humor. It’s been removed.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @LadyScorpio: Poor attempt indeed. Wasn’t meant to be taken as anything but a joke. My apologies Lady.

      • The Harrow says:
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        @Hodysseus: been removed, oh man, sucks getting here late. gotta love PC thugs. and i’m not interested in it for it’s merits if anybody assumed a joke has objective “merits”, i’m only interested in the content of something somebody showed up to say that about, like full of hate when he lobbied to get rid of smokey’s marry/fuck/kill setup for the closers, which also worked out for him. hurrah effort in those scared of words taking over the world.

        • Alex says:
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          @The Harrow: It’s been a week and I’m still not recovered.

  3. MJP says:
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    Im in a 7×7 keeper league that take AVG, OPS, and BB into account. We only get 4 moves a week and I’m currently rostering Welington at Catcher. Need Your Opinion on two fronts:

    1. If It’s worth using a move to switch catchers
    2. Who to pick up at catcher.

    WW: Wieters, Montero, Gomes, Grandal, Realmuto, Ramos, Molina

    • The Harrow says:
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      @MJP: probably better off not using 1/4th of moves on catcher.

  4. Big Al says:
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    Start Mallex facing these guys…are you sure about this?

    vs A. Wood (L)
    vs R. Stripling (R)
    vs C. Kershaw (L)
    vs M. Harvey (R)
    vs S. Matz (L)
    vs N. Syndergaard (R)

    I mean, I’m sure he’s a fine option if that’s what you’ve got, and you need SB. For me, it’s between Pillar, Melky, and Mallex for me, and I could use the SB next week, but with PIllar facing mostly a bunch of goons(aside from Gray), I was leaning that way.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Big Al: Melky…no thanks. But Pillar I can listen to. Go with your gut if you feel strongly about Pillar.

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