Just a few years back, I used to followed weekly blogs that would similarly give me weekly start em’, sit em’ recommendations such as this. And then my ego took over. “Why the hell should I listen to this guy?!” “What does he know anyway?!”I remember getting absolutely furious when a suggested stream would go bad and have a nerdy “expert” as my scapegoat. I mean, c’mon, isn’t it always fun to blame the nerd? So why should you listen to me and trust me with your lineup? Well, you don’t have to if you don’t want to. But in order to gain some credibility and hopefully your trust, I am going to track my weekly stats to show you how bad or good my suggestions have been for your OBP leagues.
Here are the results after Week 1:
| Period | Plays | H/AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 |
8 |
37/138 | 24 | 12 | 29 | 1 | 0.362 |
Keep in mind these are suggestions based on players owned in less than 50% of leagues, so don’t expect these numbers to always be sexy. I mean last week my title included John Jaso in the name if that gives you any idea of the sex-factor.
Each week, I plan to give you an idea of which teams have the most favorable and least favorable match-ups by looking at their opposing scheduled starters for the week. I do this by taking each opposing pitchers’ stats and giving you an idea of which teams should expect to score the most (and least) Rs, HRs, RBIs, SBs, and highest/lowest OBP for the week. I will then give you some suggested spot starts for the week based on the categories (players owned in less than 50% of leagues).
For the first full month of April, I will strictly be using starting pitcher statistics from last season to project out the week. However, as we move forward throughout the season, I will transition to the starters’ 2016 statistics so that I can give you the most accurate and relative numbers to help you win your roto league!
So sit back, relax, and get your pee pee ready for week 3!
(Keep in mind, the categories analyzed are for a 5×5 OBP format.)
Runs/OBP: Stats Against
For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Runs and OBP are concerned:
| Team | SP ERA | Team | SP OBPA |
| 1. Kansas City | 4.73 | 1. LA Dodgers | 0.337 |
| 2. Cleveland | 4.66 | 2. Kansas City | 0.343 |
| 3. LA Dodgers | 4.57 | 3. Minnesota | 0.324 |
| 4. NY Mets | 4.41 | 4. Colorado | 0.320 |
| 5. Chicago Sox | 4.32 | 5. Toronto | 0.324 |
| Team | SP ERA | Team | SP OBPA |
| 30. Atlanta | 2.84 | 30. Atlanta | 0.281 |
| 29. San Diego | 3.19 | 29. Baltimore | 0.289 |
| 28. Baltimore | 3.31 | 28. Detroit | 0.290 |
| 27. Oakland | 3.33 | 27. NY Yankees | 0.296 |
| 26. San Fran | 3.44 | 26. Seattle | 0.296 |
SP ERA= Average ERA for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.
SP OBPA= Average OBP allowed for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.
The Run/OBP Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):
- SS- Alcides Escobar (Available in 53% of ESPN leagues): Alcides Escobar had a .293 OBP last year. He also has yet to take a walk in 2016. But I am from KC and homers do what homers want to do okay! And due to Ned Yost hating all things analytics, the man with the .293 OBP bats lead-off on a team that will score a crazy amount of runs next week. We should put him on our team.
- 2B- Howie Kendrick (Available in 55% of ESPN leagues): Now open your mind up and listen to me, Kendrick. I am your conscience, if you do not hear me, then you will be history, Kendrick. I know that you’re nauseous right now and I’m hopin’ to lead you to victory, Kendrick.
HRs/RBIs: Stats Against
For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as HRs and RBIs are concerned:
| Team | SP HR/9 | Team | SP RBI/9 |
| 1. Chicago Sox | 1.35 | 1. Kasnas City | 4.47 |
| 2. NY Mets | 1.23 | 2. Cleveland | 4.39 |
| 3. Cleveland | 1.21 | 3. NY Mets | 4.35 |
| 4. Tampa Bay | 1.19 | 4. LA Dodgers | 4.28 |
| 5. Miami | 1.18 | 5. Chicago Sox | 4.13 |
| Team | SP HR/9 | Team | SP RBI/9 |
| 30. San Diego | 0.66 | 30. Atlanta | 2.77 |
| 29. Cincinnati | 0.78 | 29. Oakland | 3.16 |
| 28. Toronto | 0.81 | 28. Baltimore | 3.25 |
| 27. Houston | 0.85 | 27. San Diego | 3.26 |
| 26. Atlanta | 0.86 | 26. San Fran | 3.26 |
SP HR/9= Average amount of HRs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.
SP RBI/9= Average amount of RBIs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.
The HR/RBI Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):
- 3B- David Wright (Available in 63% of ESPN leagues): In his first nine games, David Wright has an OBP of .429 and has given everyone a little hope that he will once again have to be rostered by some poor bastard. And although he has yet to showcase his power, do the Wright thang and start him this week.
- OF- Avisail Garcia (Available in 85% of ESPN leagues): Avisail Garcia broke every rule of bro-code a few years back when he banged Prince Fielder’s wife. And he continues to let bros around the nation down with his lack of production and overly hyped expectations. But ole Avisail shall send a few balls sailing against pitchers that give it up easier than Prince’s wife. (Sorry if you are reading this, Prince!)
Stolen Bases: Stats Against
For the week of 4/18-4/24, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Stolen Bases is concerned:
| Team | SP SB/9 |
| 1. Cincinnati | 0.87 |
| 2. St. Louis | 0.67 |
| 3. Boston | 0.63 |
| 4. Pittsburgh | 0.62 |
| 5. Arizona | 0.63 |
| Team | SP SB/9 |
| 30. Tampa Bay | 0.31 |
| 29. Oakland | 0.33 |
| 28. Chicago Cubs | 0.35 |
| 27. Washington | 0.39 |
| 26. NY Mets | 0.39 |
SP SB/9= Average amount of SBs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.
The SB Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):
- OF – Mallex Smith (Available in 89% of ESPN leagues): Last year in AAA, Mallex Smith stole 34 bases in 69 games, and with the Braves facing pitchers who give up the 10th most SBs for the week, he is worth the play.
- OF – Jeremy Hazelbaker (Available in 54% of ESPN leagues): Good lord am I tired of hearing this guy’s name. In fact, I don’t even want to write anything on him other than: start this guy til he cools off like he should.
