I first wanted to take this opening line to tell you all that I TOLD YOU SO on Eugenio Suarez and Trevor Story! And to those who read my release last Sunday, you are super welcome! (Wait, is this a**hole seriously gonna take that credit but fail to mention that he recommended to start Jose Peraza who is in AAA?!) Why yes, those were my exact plans to be honest.

Any-who, if you missed my last post and are clueless on what I will be doing, here you go…

Each week, I plan to give you an idea of which teams have the most favorable and least favorable match-ups by looking at their opposing scheduled starters for the week. I do this by taking each opposing pitchers’ stats and giving you an idea of which teams should expect to score the most (and least) Rs, HRs, RBIs, SBs, and highest/lowest OBP for the week. I will then give you some suggested spot starts for the week based on the categories (players owned in less than 50% of leagues).

For the first full month of April, I will strictly be using starting pitcher statistics from last season to project out the week. However, as we move forward throughout the season, I will transition to the starters’ 2016 statistics so that I can give you the most accurate and relative numbers to help you win your roto league!

So sit back, take a deep breath, and say “Week Two is gonna be my bee-yachts!”

(Keep in mind, the categories analyzed are for a 5×5 OBP format.)

 

Runs/OBP: Stats Against

For the week of 4/11-4/17, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Runs and OBP are concerned:

Favorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
1. Pittsburgh 4.77 1. Pittsburgh 0.337
2. Washington 4.55 2. Arizona 0.331
3. Seattle 4.44 3. Washington 0.328
4. Baltimore 4.38 4. St. Louis 0.328
5. Houston 4.38 5. LA Angels 0.324
Unfavorable
Team SP ERA Team SP OBPA
30. Cincinnati 2.98 30. NY Mets 0.282
29. NY Yankees 3.21 29. Cincinnati 0.294
28. Kansas City 3.36 28. San Diego 0.295
27. NY Mets 3.36 27. NY Yankees 0.296
26. San Diego 3.39 26. Colorado 0.296

SP ERA= Average ERA for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP OBPA= Average OBP allowed for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The Run/OBP Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. DH- John Jaso (Available in 78% of ESPN leagues): John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt has a career .360 OBP. He also bats lead-off for the Pirates. Whatever statement comes next shouldn’t be any more shocking than the previous two. But here I go: John Jaso is a must start for those looking for some OBP and Runs this week.
  2. OF- Joey Rickard (Available in 94% of ESPN leagues): If he continues to hit first in Baltimore’s lineup, the kid might become fantasy relevant sooner rather than later. Wait, didn’t we say that about Hyun-soo Kim? And now look at him! You bastards! But to be honest, I never said anything about Kim. Don’t blame me for being a dumb ass.

 

HRs/RBIs: Stats Against

For the week of 4/11-4/17, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as HRs and RBIs are concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
1. Seattle 1.40 1. Pittsburgh 4.63
2. Washington 1.30 2. Washington 4.34
3. Houston 1.21 3. Houston 4.30
4. Texas 1.18 4. Seattle 4.24
5. Chicago Sox 1.14 5. Baltimore 3.97
 Unfavorable
Team SP HR/9 Team SP RBI/9
30. Milwaukee 0.72 30. NY Yankees 2.99
29. Cincinnati 0.73 29. Cincinnati 3.03
28. Detroit 0.74 28. NY Mets 3.09
27. San Fran 0.74 27. San Diego 3.31
26. San Diego 0.85 26. Kansas City 3.32

SP HR/9= Average amount of HRs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

SP RBI/9= Average amount of RBIs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The HR/RBI Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. OF- Michael Taylor (Available in 93% of ESPN leagues): Michael Taylor has 20-20 potential but strikes out more than than your overly aggressive, creepy friend does at a bar. Except this week he faces some of the most busted pitchers in the league and might just have a shot to hit a home run or two. Put this man in your lineup and get your buddy laid!
  2. OF- Colby Rasmus (Available in 85% of ESPN leagues): Even though his hair is reminiscent to Bret “the Hitman” Hart, Colby Rasmus needs about 3 home runs this week to even be mentioned by Canadian fans in the same breath as the WWF legend. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen. Rasmus can get on straight fire at times, and what better week to do it than against pitchers who give up 1.21 HRs per game?

 

Stolen Bases: Stats Against

For the week of 4/11-4/17, here are the teams that have the best and worst match-ups as far as Stolen Bases is concerned:

Favorable 
Team SP SB/9
1. LA Angels 0.82
2. Colorado 0.75
3. LA Dodgers 0.74
4. Cincinnati 0.66
5. Oakland 0.63
Unfavorable 
Team SP SB/9
30. Detroit 0.18
29. Miami 0.22
28. Cleveland 0.24
27. Atlanta 0.26
26. Washington 0.35

SP SB/9= Average amount of SBs given up per nine innings for all starting pitchers that a team will face in the week.

The SB Plays (Owned <50% of ESPN leagues):

  1. 2B/SS- Chris Owings (Available in 96% of ESPN leagues): While I was watching the Diamondbacks play last night (holy hell, what a bad Thursday), I saw a stat that said Owings had the worst OPS in the majors last year. And one day later, he winds up on my list for players to start. I now understand why you don’t take me seriously.
  2. SS- Marcus Semien (Available in 71% of ESPN leagues): Last year in the month of April, Marcus Semien hit 3 homers, stole 3 bases and had a .330 OBP. In fact, he is a pretty damn solid MI for an OBP league. So what is the harm in starting him this week in hopes he unleashes some of his speed on the base-paths?
 
  1. Slimcompoop says:
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    Good stuff Hodyssues…thanks!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Slimcompoop: People helping people. You are welcome sir.

  2. OJ Simpson says:
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    Peraza haha love it. he’ll come around.

    SS conundrum, didn’t listen to you but.. brad miller has a whopping .067 OBP

    do I swap him for Holt (yahoo’s liberal positions have him available at every position)?

    When I watched Suarez hit a grand slam I instantly thought of your post.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @OJ Simpson: I would love to say Miller will come around but it is getting pretty bad. Luckily I didn’t listen to myself and don’t have him in any leagues. At th same time, Holt doesn’t make my pants move. I would ride it out fot another week or two and hate me later!

      • Hodysseus

        Hodysseus says:
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        @Hodysseus: Actually…add Holt. Change of heart!

        • OJ Simpson says:
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          @Hodysseus: Holt added.
          why the change of heart?

          jeez my team couldn’t have hit worse this week. whole team hit a whopping .192 yet I was still able to manage a .318 obp

          • Hodysseus

            Hodysseus says:
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            @OJ Simpson: Thats what spread do! And just a hunch more than anything.

  3. Sheetz says:
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    Looking for some advice for by 7×7 league (total bases and obp) + (holds and k/walk ratio)

    C – real muto
    1b – abreu
    2b – odor
    3b – Donaldson
    Ss – Seager
    Of – Marte, yelich, Dickerson
    Unil – Castro, puljos
    Bench – Tyler white, piscotty, deshields
    Sp – Cole, carassco, matz, walker, Ventura, Velasquez (this is my streaming position )
    Rp – Robertson, Rodney, f rod, o’day

    Would you replace any of the above ?
    Free agents include
    Cervelli, buxton, soler, will Myers, Hundley,
    Fiers, bucholz, Joe Ross, Ervin Santana

    Wondering if i should hold 3 bench positions ? Or just stream for necessary categories depending on the matchup ?

    Thanks

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Sheetz: I like your bench as is, so dont add. Is it unlimited adds? If so I like the idea and always have 1-2 streaming slots for pitching/hitting if that is the case.

      • @Hodysseus:
        Thanks ! we can make 7 moves per week . If I run into a jam, which bench bat is the most droppable ?

        • Hodysseus

          Hodysseus says:
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          @Sheetz: @Sheetzssh: I like your bench bats more than I like Fernando Rodney. Eff that guy.

  4. Love this breakdown – appreciate your putting the work in, Hodysseus!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Lucky Dog: Anything for my dogs

  5. asdfasdf says:
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    Hey, which of these guys would you bench this upcoming week: Jaso, Josh Harrison, or Michael Taylor? It is a points league, so walks do help. Thank a lot!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @asdfasdf: Harrison

  6. Control Towers says:
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    12 hitting cat Yahoo league – Added Hundley off the wire to back up Lucroy. Have some weaker OF’s on the squad – been offered Lucroy for Belt – Grey would approve, anyone else want to chime in?

    Thanks!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Control Towers: I approve this message as well

      • Control Towers says:
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        @Hodysseus: Thank you sir!

  7. Tony says:
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    Hey Hodysseus I love the blog. It’s hard to find quality analysis for OBP formats. I’m in a 5×5 12 team OBP league. I have a deep squad with the exception of SS. Brad Miller is my starter and I would like to pair him with another option. Ketel Marte was dropped in my league and is currently on waivers. I added Javier Baez immediately after the injury to Scwharber today. The injury, the struggles of Soler,and the Baez’s positional versatility has me thinking there is a huge opportunity for Baez to get AB’s and provide excellent power/speed numbers due to his production in the minors. Do you think the huge upside and 25/15 potential of Baez make him a better add than Marte who is a much safer but lower-ceiling alternative? Baez qualifies at 2B,SS,3B so his versatility is a nice bonus as well. I am a mess thinking abt my SS situation since I’ve seen plenty of projections where Marte is a superior option at SS to Miller. Not sure what to do so I’d love to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Tony: Appreciate the words brother. And I like your thinking on Baez- the injury to Schwarb dog definitely could make him relevant. I have Soler in both my leagues and am hoping he is the guy, but I definitely see Baez gettin some ABs and has a shot to be starter. And you hit it on the nose- he has 25/15 potential and his decreasing K rates have made him interesting once again.

      As far as Marte goes- add him if you need speed. If you lack OBP and power, keep Miller. Marte also had a pretty solid Spread last year (OBP-AVG).

  8. Kyle says:
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    Hey Hodysseus- nice avatar man. Go Chiefs. Love the posts.

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