Since the season starts in just a couple days (!!!), I suppose it is time to wrap this OBP series up. I hope you all have enjoyed and I appreciate all the comments that I have received. Forgive me, but I am going to refrain from writing about the catcher position and instead focus on outfielders. (If you are mad about this, I hate you.) In 2015, qualified outfielders had a spread of .064 which puts them just below first basemen for the second best average in baseball. So let’s take a look at which of these outfielders rises and falls in an OBP league and also I will give you players to target in your draft.

Alas, the outfield position!

(Keep in mind, the format is 12-team 5×5 OBP)

The Risers:

PLAYER TEAM AB R HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP Spread
Joc Pederson LAD 480 67 26 54 4 92 0.210 0.346 0.136
Bryce Harper WSH 521 118 42 99 6 124 0.330 0.460 0.130
Jose Bautista TOR 543 108 40 114 8 110 0.250 0.377 0.127
Miguel Sano MIN 279 46 18 52 1 53 0.269 0.385 0.116
Andrew McCutchen PIT 566 91 23 96 11 98 0.292 0.401 0.109
Alex Gordon KC 354 40 13 48 2 49 0.271 0.377 0.106
Curtis Granderson NYM 580 98 26 70 11 91 0.259 0.364 0.105
Mike Trout LAA 575 104 41 90 11 92 0.299 0.402 0.103
Shin-Soo Choo TEX 555 94 22 82 4 76 0.276 0.375 0.099
Dexter Fowler CHC 596 102 17 46 20 84 0.250 0.346 0.096
Brandon Guyer TB 332 51 8 28 10 25 0.265 0.359 0.094
Steven Souza Jr. TB 373 59 16 40 12 46 0.225 0.318 0.093
Chris Coghlan CHC 440 64 16 41 11 58 0.250 0.341 0.091
George Springer HOU 388 59 16 41 16 50 0.276 0.367 0.091
Justin Upton SD 542 85 26 81 19 68 0.251 0.336 0.085
Brett Gardner NYY 571 94 16 66 20 68 0.259 0.343 0.084
Delino DeShields TEX 425 83 2 37 25 53 0.261 0.344 0.083
Seth Smith SEA 395 54 12 42 0 47 0.248 0.330 0.082
Jayson Werth WSH 331 51 12 42 0 38 0.221 0.302 0.081
Giancarlo Stanton MIA 279 47 27 67 4 34 0.265 0.346 0.081
Sam Fuld OAK 290 34 2 22 9 30 0.197 0.276 0.079
Brandon Moss CLE/STL 469 47 19 58 0 49 0.226 0.304 0.078
Gregor Blanco SF 327 59 5 26 13 40 0.291 0.368 0.077
Khris Davis MIL 392 54 27 66 6 44 0.247 0.323 0.076
Will Venable TEX/SD 349 40 6 33 16 37 0.244 0.320 0.076

Jose Bautista (2nd Round, OBP Value= 1st)

At age 35, Jose Bautista is an old head when compared to most first and second rounders in your draft. But just like fine wine and Jennifer Aniston, Jose Bautista has gotten better with age. Since turning 29 five years ago, Joey Bats has averaged an eye-popping 38 homers and a.390 OBP and has shown no signs of slowing down. Do yourself a favor and draft this petrified POS.

Curtis Granderson/Shin Soo-Choo (11th Round, OBP Value= 8th)

Why bundle these players together? Well, number 1: because in an OBP league they are virtually the same player, and number 2: because I really didn’t want to write individual pieces on more middle aged hitters.

But really…they both hit leadoff for solid offenses. They both should hit 20 homers and score 90 runs. They both should have an OBP around .360. And they both should be drafted in the middle rounds with little enthusiasm yet great confidence.

The Fallers:

PLAYER TEAM AB R HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP Spread
Eddie Rosario MIN 453 60 13 50 11 15 0.267 0.289 0.022
Jeff Francoeur PHI 326 34 13 45 0 13 0.258 0.286 0.028
Juan Lagares NYM 441 47 6 41 7 16 0.259 0.289 0.030
Yasmany Tomas ARI 406 40 9 48 5 17 0.273 0.305 0.032
Alex Rios KC 385 40 4 32 9 15 0.255 0.287 0.032
Kevin Kiermaier TB 505 62 10 40 18 24 0.263 0.298 0.035
Ender Inciarte ARI 524 73 6 45 21 26 0.303 0.338 0.035
David Murphy LAA/CLE 361 38 10 50 0 20 0.283 0.318 0.035
Kevin Pillar TOR 586 76 12 56 25 28 0.278 0.314 0.036
Ben Revere TOR/PHI 592 84 2 45 31 32 0.306 0.342 0.036
Yoenis Cespedes DET/NYM 633 101 35 105 7 33 0.291 0.328 0.037
Gerardo Parra BAL/MIL 547 83 14 51 14 28 0.291 0.328 0.037
Adam Jones BAL 546 74 27 82 3 24 0.269 0.308 0.039
Billy Burns OAK 520 70 5 42 26 26 0.294 0.334 0.040
Melky Cabrera CHW 629 70 12 77 3 40 0.273 0.314 0.041
Angel Pagan SF 512 55 3 37 12 32 0.262 0.303 0.041
Marlon Byrd CIN/SF 506 58 23 73 2 29 0.247 0.290 0.043
Austin Jackson SEA/CHC 491 56 9 48 17 29 0.267 0.311 0.044
Leonys Martin TEX 288 26 5 25 14 16 0.219 0.264 0.045
Jake Marisnick HOU 339 46 9 36 24 18 0.236 0.281 0.045
Odubel Herrera PHI 495 64 8 41 16 28 0.297 0.344 0.047
Matt Kemp SD 596 80 23 100 12 39 0.265 0.312 0.047
Rajai Davis DET 341 55 8 30 18 22 0.258 0.306 0.048
Billy Hamilton CIN 412 56 4 28 57 28 0.226 0.274 0.048
Marcell Ozuna MIA 459 47 10 44 2 30 0.259 0.308 0.049

Adam Jones (4th Round, OBP Value= 6th)

Part of the reason many love Adam Jones is his consistency in his power numbers and counting stats. But consistency is also a reason to dislike him in an OBP format- as the man is consistently crappy at taking walks. With a spread that never reaches much higher than .040, plan to drop Adam Jones a few rounds if you are in an OBP format.

Yoenis Cespedes (3rd Round, OBP Value= 5th)

You would think that a player this lazy would enjoy taking walks. (I mean seriously, that play the other day in CF made me laugh and cry at the same time.) But like Adam Jones, Cespedes is much the same with a spread that is pretty shameful for a player of his stature. In fact, in three of his last four seasons, he has had a spread below .040. Do not draft him before the 5th round in a 5×5 OBP format.

The Targets:

Khris Davis (15th Round, OBP Value= 11th)

I admit, sometimes I get caught up in 162 game projections on Baseball Reference. But boy is it hard to get last years 36 number out of my head when looking at Khris Davis’s 162 game HR projection in 2015. And to those that are scared of his move from Milwaukee to Oakland, Mini Khrush had the 7th best average home run distance which makes the transition much less of a factor. I aint scurred- draft this man!

Joc Pederson (14th Round, OBP Value= 10th)

In 2006, Yung Joc tore things up in the rap industry and my high-school self was convinced he would be the face of hip hop for the next decade. And just like that, Yung Joc decided to take his hit single “It’s Goin Down” far too literal as his career went downhill faster than Lou Bega’s. Well, as his brother from another mother before him, Joc Pederson already fell off a cliff and we are praying to the faba gods that he rebounds.

With Joc, there are still a load of red flags as he hasn’t shown any signs of improving his his K rate in Spring. But even with his disgusting second half, Joc led the pack of outfielders with the highest spread (.136) in just his rookie year. This, along with his raw power (Joc led all players in average HR distance) cannot be ignored, which makes Joc a great value pick in the 11th round of your draft.

Yasiel Puig (8th Round, OBP Value= 6th)

Not this guy again! Seriously, when will they give it up?! Okay, I promise you if this isn’t the year, Puig will never be rostered by me again. But a player with this upside is hard to give up on, so please forgive me!

In 2013, Yasiel Puig had an AVG of .319 and an OBP of .391. In 2014- it was .296 and .382. In 2015, he regressed to .255/.322 but was hurt most of the year. All in all, we can expect to see a Spread around .080 higher than his average, which gives Puig some monster upside in OBP leagues…assuming he puts it all together. An obviously that is the big question. But dream with me for a minute and let’s say he does by hitting 25 dingers, stealing 15, and batting .310. If this happens, we can assume his OBP is around .390 in this scenario which puts his stat line just under the range of Anthony Rizzo & Andrew McCutchen (legit first rounders). Roll the dice with me one more time!

The Sleepers:

Matt Holliday (17th Round, OBP Value= 13th)

Matt Holliday can often times be found hanging with his prehistoric friend Joey Bats. Unlike Bats, Holliday is an herbivore and spends time strolling around the bases instead of destroying his prey. In his career Holliday averages a .387 OBP, and in 2014 (his last full season), he had an OBP of .370. During that same season, his spread was almost 100 points and he complimented his elite OBP with 83 Rs, 20 HRs, and 90 RBIs. This man is going far too late in drafts and should be drafted as a number four outfielder with upside to be a number two.

Steven Souza Jr. (20th Round, OBP Value= 17th)

Aside from a potential log jam in the outfield, there isn’t much holding back Steven Souza from putting together a 20-20 season in 2016. And even if Souza’s average is around .230, I wouldn’t be too shocked for him to have an OBP in the .330s. Souza, who turns 27 in April, has minor breakout potential, but even if he repeated what he did last year over a full season, the man deserves to be drafted in the later rounds.

 
  1. Show Me Da $$$ says:
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    I’m in a 12 man dynasty points league where hitter’s scoring is standard but pitching is 1.5=IP -1=ER -1=BB 1=K 5=W -5=L. I have an OF of Trout, Betts, Springer, and DeShields on the bench. If feel like my starting pitching should be upgraded as I have:
    Arrieta
    Wainwright
    Matz
    Corbin
    Darvish
    Iwakuma
    Heaney
    Kennedy
    Holland

    I need to make 9 starts a week and I am thinking about shipping Springer for a SP since his Ks will diminish his value a tad. What approximate tier of SP should I shop him for? Do you think its necessary to ship him for a starter or should I hold?

    Thanks!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Show Me Da $$$: I think you hold Springer. Your staff is solid enough and I only expect Springer’s value to increase over the next few weeks. And the only tier that matches his value is Sale/Scherzer tier.

  2. OJ Simpson says:
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    Love the post, as always.
    Makes me feel like a winner when 3 of my players are on your risers.

    How do you feel about Jason heyward and Byron Buxton?

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @OJ Simpson: Thanks for reading my post again OJ. You seem like you did’t kill Nicole.

      As far as Heyward and Buxton are concerned- both are on my roster in my most competitive league (5×5 obp).

      • OJ Simpson says:
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        @Hodysseus: The glove didn’t fit.
        Great minds think alike!

        Is it bad that I wouldn’t mind a catcher post haha

        • Hodysseus

          Hodysseus says:
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          @OJ Simpson: haha couldn’t fit it in- was put on board at Razz too late in the game! But here you go: Grandal a big riser in OBP, McCann and Martin are too. That is essentially it haha.

          BTW my regular season series starts tomorrow so be looking out for it!

          • OJ Simpson says:
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            @Hodysseus: looking forward to it

  3. Summer is coming says:
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    I’m new to my obp league. We have 7×7 with total bases, obp, holds, and k/walk ratio as our categories.

    My team is:
    C – real muto
    1b – abreu
    2b – odor
    3b – Donaldson
    Ss – Seager
    Of – Marte, yeli ch, Dickerson
    Util – puljos and Castro
    Bench – b. Park, deshields, piscotty
    Sp – Cole, carassco, matz, walker, Ventura, Nola
    Rp – Robertson, f. Rod , day, Rodney

    Thoughts on my team ? Do you have an overall obp rankings list anywhere ?
    Think I should make any moves to improve my of .? I kept missing on outfielders

    Thanks

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Summer is coming: offense is solid, you need some bullpen help. I would also agree that ya you could use one more OF.

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