In case your offseason of binge drinking and crack smoking (in case Andy Dick is a reader), a quick reminder the Royals develop pitching well. That bumps up against being a cheap-ass organization and Noah Cameron looks like he’s been ready since 2024. Alas, he’s here now and last year he went 138 1/3 IP of 2.99 ERA pitching. I’d buy that for a dollar, he says while smoking a cigar of rolled-up dollar bills. [realizing he could use one of those rolled-up dollar bills to buy stuff, he stomps out the dollar-bill cigar, takes the burnt money and asks the store clerk, “Can I buy a Zippo lighter with this burnt money? No? O. Henry!”] Cameron’s 7.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 are less drool-inducing, but you can’t let the surface-level stuff get you down. Rise up, prematurely balding man, rise up! Not literally, I mean emotionally, you can sit down again. Besides, you shouldn’t stand up while you’re sitting on the toilet doing a number two. See, I know where our readers are! These new analytics are amazing! Also, three of you are named Kenneth. I’d go by Ken, if I were you three. No pressure though. Just saying that Kenneth sounds like a serial killer. I am merely stating opinions! Noah doesn’t sound like a killer though. Unless you’re talking about his slider! Bam! Hashtag still got it! So, what can we expect from Noah Cameron for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Member three sentences and two half-ass goofs ago when I said his K/9 was a bit yawny? Well, he had a much better strikeout rate in the minors (2024, 128 2/3 IP, 10.4 K/9). By the way, “Three sentences and two half-ass goofs ago,” is the beginning of the Gettysburg Address if I wrote it. Call it the Greysburg Address. Okay, so where’d those Ks come from? Thanks, Expositional Question! His slider is devastating (.205 BAA). Maybe he throws that more (14% of the time in 2025) this year. Then again, he has two better pitches, per his BAA. His curve was thrown 19.3% of the time and it had a .153 BAA. Here’s more:
That’s as a rookie. He’s up there with some of the best curves by starters and relievers. Lowest xOBA by an individual pitch? He was 6th. The top six is ridink. You don’t believe me? Here:
That seems pretty effin’ good. He couldn’t possibly have a third great pitch could he? Ah, geez, here we go again. The changeup: .204 BAA, threw it 18.5% of the time and had a 41.1 Whiff%.
Talking in more general terms? Lowest Barrel%: he was 9th best, right in front of Chris Sale. Highest Whiff%: He was 28th best, right above Framber Valdez. Pitches in a great stadium; has a 41.4 ground ball rate; 30th best BB% at 7.7, a notch better than Hunter Brown; top 40 K-BB%; guys and five girl readers, this guy rocks.
I understand why he’s a sleeper too. Currently, he’s being drafted around 260 overall. That’ll do it! He has a fairly whatever 92 MPH fastball. It sets up his other pitches. Who cares? Don’t get so wrapped up in velocity. He was a rookie last year — have I mentioned he was a rookie? He was a rookie. This is merely the beginning! — and still had a 2.99 ERA. He had exceptional strikeout and walk rates in the minors and could just repeat next year or be even better. There’s a ton to like here. Honestly, he was one of those where I was like, “He had a 2.99 ERA last year as a rookie, so he’s going to be drafted around 120 overall, right?” And was floored it was 140 picks after that. Ks may not be there, but stop chasing Ks. 160-ish innings of great ratios and supplement his Ks with a solid reliever. For 2026, I’ll give Noah Cameron projections of 9-11/3.32/1.12/143 in 157 IP with a chance for more.



Can the lockout start this season instead?
…
12 team ottoneu points keeper league
Traded $8 Jasson Dominguez for $10 George Springer. Won the league last year and am poised to complete for a title again this year. Good move?
Sounds fair
Our draft date has been set, so you know what that means: keeper questions!
14-team league, $260 auction. We only auction our starters then do a 10-round snake draft for reserves. We start 9 pitchers, 5 OF, 2 Util, there’s CI & MI. All the standard categories are scored, plus there’s a “Doubles+Triples” stat. OBP league.
The only keeper I’m set on is Raleigh at $9.
Choose 3 from…
Gunnar $41
Woo $19 (likely doing this but need to see how he looks in spring after that pec injury ended him)
Pivetta $11
Westburg $10
Stowers $10
Barger $10
Jake the Rake Wilson $5
Always interested in your thoughts if you want to play the game.
Woo, Gunnar, Stowers
Let me be the 4th to remind you (on this post anyway) that KC is moving the fences in!!
Haha, you don’t say!
What’s up Vinny winny!
This is the year he becomes Vinnie PasquanTinoMartinez
Yes! haha
And you could have had him in NFBC, but you must really love Ramon Laureano
Ha
Did you hear they are moving on the fences in KC? MJ Melendez was the king of hitting it to the warning track. He should have lobbied for this years ago. Does this change your take on the royals this year? Are they being slept on? Should we pump the breaks on Cameron?
I heard, I’m still fine with Cameron…I love Pasketti this year, but did prior
Witt going 7th is a travesty….this is the year if baseball is played.
Witt isn’t going 7th in any league
In the dinger he is. I got him 8th in one
Wow, that’s nuts
They push up outfield though because it is 3 INF 3OF and a flex
Ah, but still
Keeper league. His Chandler Simpson for my Murakami?
Depends if you need speed.
Simpson for steals, it’s fair
I am not touching murakami with a 10 foot pole. Joey Gallo is his comp.
Looking for some dynasty trade advice:
A) Eovaldi ($23) + Quintero (minor leaguer)
B) Torkelson ($18) + Hagen Smith (minor leaguer)
Which side do you prefer in a vacuum? What if I told you my hitting is pretty pathetic at the moment?
Eovaldi, I’d want a better bat
Have you talked at all about the Reds and their stolen bases last year under Tito? I might be late to the party on this. I 2024 the Reds were 3rd in MLB with 207 steals. Tito comes in and they go to 105 steals in 2025. Elly went from 67 to 37. Steer from 25 to 7. McClain had 27 in 103 games his last fullish season 18 in 147 games last year. Espinal went from 11 to 2.
When Francona was with the Guardians they did run. They finished 3rd in the league in 21 and 22. I remember him being very pointed in interviews beginning of last season saying the Reds would be careful to run “in the right situations.” But they had and 82% success rate in ’24. Whole thing is wierd.
Elly said he was injured, but I do think there’s something to what you’re saying…I was actually talking about this with BDon yesterday…Maybe Tito just didn’t want to run as much, I have no idea why tho as you say
Love the Cameron sleeper!
Quick side question – in a dynasty league I’m being asked if I would trade Chase Burns straight up for Wyatt Langford. Would you pull the trigger on that?
Feels like a buy low on a guy once regarded as a can’t miss stud, and I usually favor bats over arms, but I do really like what I see from Burns.
Thanks! I’d want Wyatt, it’s fair tho
Arenado to the DBacks. They only have to pay him 5 million this year and 6 million next year. Gave up a somewhat projectable young pitcher.
DBags traded for $31 million–I mean, Arenado!
That about sums it up
Grey the White!
The Royals are moving their fences in 10 ft at Kaufman. Will have to make some adjustments on projections? I’m starting Patreon account this afternoon to start making my cheat sheets.
I am not changing based on 10 feet, Orioles moved the fences in at this time last year and it didn’t do much of anything
Perfect. Thank you for the feedback.
No problem
Gotta redo all the Royals analysis. They’re moving in the fences!
Ha, just like the Orioles moved the fences in at this time and changed everything
Zebby Matthews or Tyler Wells?
Zebby
Thanks, love the Noah Cameron sleeper post. I knew he was good despite what the pundits said and was planning to keep him, but you brought real data to back it up that has me a little more excited.
Thanks!
is patreon down? haven’t seen a Grey post since 12/29?
Grey u can’t possibly enjoy spending more time with the in laws over holidays than us!
Haha, they’re ok!
I was away for 2 weeks with family…I’m putting out a top 100 today
Can’t wait. Hope you enjoyed some family time.
Thanks!
Nfbc keeper league – 15 teams
Keep 5
Keeping gilbert in the 19th
Who else
Goodman – 18
Baldwin – 20
Barger – 20
Soderstrom – 15
N. Marte – 22
Grisham 20
Ray – 25
Z. Matthews – 24
Cabrera – 28
E. Cabrera, Soderstrom, Marte, then coin flip, I guess Goodman since it’s 2-catcher
Thanks for the input
No problem
The “chance for more” for sure includes innings upside. He averaged 5.75 innings per start. Wacha made 33 starts for the Royals last year. Give Cam 33 starts at his IP/GS that’s 189 IPs. He’s a 6’3″ 220 pound soft tosser which sounds like an old fashioned work horse. It would be a big innings jump but he’ll be 27 this year. Seems plausible. You have him at 8.2 K’s per 9. Give him those innings and that’s a tasty 172 k’s. 172 was good enough to be top 25 in k’s last year.
Sounds like you like him too! Nice! Good to hear approval from Oaktown (even if I just made up the approval in my head)
i had him in draft chimps er champs last year.
Ah, an early adopter!
I tried to have good pitching for so long but my womb was a rocky place where pitching seed could find no purchase. so i had to adopt.
Should try IVF where they take your team to a lab and inject it with pitching by trade or waivers
Careful he might get octopitchlets usually you end up with more than you bargained for with IVF
Haha
It’s Dinger Season. Started drafting yesterday. Come play against me
Hmm, I don’t know what Dinger is other than the Rockies mascot
Bestball tournament on Under dog. 15 to get in 200k first prize.
Oh! Nice! Good luck!
Trying to get some early values
Smart!
Cameron going in last round haha
Awesome!
Jose Ramirez at the turn sometimes
Damn
Hi Grey
welcome back for a new season :)
here is my dynasty young rooster :
un-movables
SP1 Hunter Brown
SP2 Logan Webb
Breakout & sleepers
SP3 Eury Perez
SP4 Noah Cameron
SP5 Ed Cabrera
SP6 Cade Horton
Prove-me-more
Kris Bubic (hurt?)
Luis Gil (rebound?) tradeable?
i can get from waivers :
Shane Smith
Logan henderson
David Peterson
still thinking about my RPs :
Saviour
RP1 Johan Duran
Hold-uppers
RP2 Griffin Jax : hopefully 9th inning guy in TB
RP3 Jeremiah Estrada : for Ks
Set*up
RP4 Edwin Uceta –> set-up man for Jax?
RP5 Jose Ferrer –> will he close? else i can get Helsley from waivers!
Last one : Kyle Stowers or Jo Adell ?
Thanks! Sure, trade Gil if you can…I doubt it tho…I’d take Henderson (or Bubic) over him
Stowers