Let’s start with the drool. Here’s Nate Pearson:

Wipes sweat bead from forehead, takes a long drawn-out beat, then, “Damn.” Here’s what else he does to hitters:

Wanna know how good a guy is? Watch how hitters attack, or in this case, try to attack him. These two examples of Nate Pearson’s butter don’t even show his 99 MPH cheddar. That cheese, if you will, is the reason why these hitters are looking so bad. Imagine sitting on a 99 MPH fastball, then this filth is dropped into the zone. You can’t hit anything there without guessing. You sit dead-red heat on his fastball, one of the best in the minors, and he drops in an 86 MPH change or a slider or a curve. Batter, batter, can’t touch butter! You can hope he doesn’t locate on one of the pitches, but last year, across three levels of the minors ending in Triple-A, he had a 119/27 K/BB. Yes, that’s beautiful. I guess you can argue that minor leaguers aren’t waiting on a pitch like major leaguers, but have you seen strikeout rates recently in the majors? Pearson’s going to chew up hitters and spit them into a barrel and send that barrel over Niagara, saying, “Get the f*** out of Canada!” So, what can we expect from Nate Pearson for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a great dart throw?

He’s ranked 34th by Prospect Itch in his top 50 prospects for 2020 fantasy baseball and is 7th on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list. Prospect Itch says of Pearson, “There’s probably somebody somewhere who thinks Nate Pearson is the best pitching prospect in baseball. If so, I doubt we’d find a long line of people willing to call it ridiculous. I used the phrase “bully on the mound” when discussing Luis Frias, and Pearson is a bully to the bullies. I don’t mean to glorify a base evil of humanity but to describe how the combination of a power pitcher’s stuff, pace, pitch mix and demeanor can make him the big kid on the playground. Think Max Scherzer. There’s a momentum to it. At some point you’re fighting gravity in the dugout. Nate Pearson is gravity. Speaking of gravity, when will something big fall on Grey?” Hey, cmon! I haven’t pinged Prospect Itch, and I’m sure he has a reason, but I’m surprised Pearson isn’t higher in his top 50. If I had to guess, I’d say because all pitching prospects are a mess for fantasy, i.e., TINSTAPP. Or maybe it’s because he’s in a tough division. Or maybe a combo of that. Or maybe I should’ve just asked him. Steamer rookie projections aren’t that favorable to Pearson either, but, again, my eyes are saying he’s Chris Paddack last year just in need of a starting job. Either way, I didn’t rank Nate Pearson in my top 100 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball, and I’m not adding him right now, but if I were doing my rankings over, I would add him around 100-ish (out of 150-ish starters in a top 100; don’t ask). When baseball returns, and the Jays say Pearson is in the rotation (or even bullpen), I will add him. He’s a great dart throw towards the end of drafts. A…*pinkie to mouth*…Draft throw! Hmm, needs work.

 
  1. Member Berries says:
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    Thanks to Ralph, I invested heavily in Pearson in my keeper leagues early 2019. Flipped him in two leagues this spring – pre-rona. That’s the end of that cool story.

    Kid looks nasty tho

    2020 MLB is going to throw everything out of whack. I’m all in for a complete revamp: Robot umps, universal DH, ghost baserunners, allow ties, and grey manages the Mets from his remote office.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That was a cool one, MB!

      Nasty!

      Yes, yes and YES!

    • baby seal says:
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      What did you get for him when you flipped him?

  2. galica says:
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    Grey!!!!!

    Amazing dart throw report!!

    a. Have Pearson, so definitely keeping this one. Is it okay to have two of these dart throws on your pitching staff? I have Kopech and Pearson. Maybe I can combine them for Clevinger for someone who thinks they’ll be that good, right? Grey?

    b. Any news on Puig signing? Grimey, all eyes are on you! Get it? He’s supposed to sign with SF. Grimey, don’t let me down.

    c. MLB quote of the day for June 23, 1967

    ‘When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock, I knew it was time to quit.’

    Robert ‘Bob’ Gibson, aka ‘Gibby’ and ‘Hoot’ (after actor Hoot Gibson, apparently he was a hoot). His accolades are many however…

    1. Most consecutive quality starts=26!
    2. Lowest live ball era single season ERA=1.12, 3rd lowest all time!
    3. Most strikeouts in a WS game=17!!, game 1 of the 1968 WS

    On the civil rights movement, he and 2 other team mates made the Cardinals’ the first team to end segregation. Boo-ya!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • baby seal says:
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      a. Definitely OK! Hopefully you have some nice starters to anchor the front-end. You could get light on IP though, so would keep an eye on that.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Little ol’ me?!

      A. Yes, get crazy!

      B. Giants, maybe, but nothing official

      C. Haha, awesome!

      • galica says:
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        Grey!!

        Thanks, man!

        a. I know you’re ribbing me over my containment on the word ‘awesome’ to describe your reports after Chata chewed me out. Gotta be woke on all fronts!

        b. Add Mackenzie Gore over Wander Franco in this lineup for a 5×5 RCL for 2020 on the ‘rona timeline?

        Alfaro
        Olson
        Moustakas
        JRamirez
        Lindor
        CWalker
        Dozier
        Akiyama
        Peralta
        Schwarber
        Soler
        MallexSmith
        Bench – Madrigal, WFranco

        SP – Kopech, Giolito, SGray, Lynn, Odorizzi, Robbie Ray, Pearson
        RP – Yates, Hand and Emilio Pagan

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. I personally enjoy an awesome

          B. Meh, I’d hold for now

          • galica says:
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            Grey!!

            Thanks, man!

            You’re a part pooper, but I will listen this time! Haha, I promise. Just wondering, though. Gore shouldn’t be unowned even in a redraft, right?

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Oh, I like Gore, but you have a flyer on Pearson, so one SP flyer is fine

        • baby seal says:
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          I would probably do it. Or drop / trade Mallex and grab Gore.

          • baby seal says:
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            And, I get the sense you really like Pagan, but I’d consider him over Gore too.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Pagan is whatever if you want the Gore flyer

              • baby seal says:
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                Totally

    • baby seal says:
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      Nice one!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Roger’s being drafted too high for me

    • 183414 says:
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      ….and he’s not in the HOF because why ?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        He should be in

        • baby seal says:
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          100%!

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
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        Some voters still hold it against him being implicated in the Mitchell Report

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s BS

          • baby seal says:
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            You say my name? haha

        • 183414 says:
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          HOF a joke. No Clemens; no Bonds; No Shoeless Joe; No Rose; No Steinbrenner.; No Schilling.

          Took them 40 years to put in Marvin Miller, AFTER Buddy Selig. Freaking joke. No Jim Kaat, but Jim Rice.

          Clemens the best pitcher in your lifetime, including Petey.

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
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            especially now with the whole Astros debacle. No penalties for them but Pete, Joe, Bonds et al are still f***ed.

            • Dave D says:
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              Totally correct

  3. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    And if this 3 division thing happens, he gets to play with the Mets, pirates, and marlins a bunch!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oh, yeah, true…Hadn’t thought of that, because I don’t think that’s actually happening, but maybe, who knows

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        Yeah me neither

  4. LOLmets says:
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    It’s been six weeks of this. The point is to slow the curve not completely eradicate the virus. Most people who get the virus get better with no medical attention (some of them don’t even show symptoms). Its time. We did our part. Let’s get going.

    Stay off social media and fight the fear.

    • baby seal says:
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      States are rolling out their plans to return to normalcy… everyone is in a different spot. What’s the issue?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Starting to seem more optimistic by the day

      • baby seal says:
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        I was surprised some ppl out there, like I saw Alex Chamberlain say he’s somehow *more* pessimistic than before…? Doesn’t make any sense to me. He said because they keep changing the plan so much each week.

        Think he was already very skeptical on the szn happening, so just talking his book. A lot of people like to be negative bc they want to sound smart.

        It’s almost objectively getting more and more optimistic. The plans are actually *starting* to make sense. Definitely not a time to double down on being negative, IMO.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Meh, there’s been no actual change…If there’s no plan in place by June, then I’ll start to get worried, but it’s not even May yet

          • baby seal says:
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            Pretty much exactly. “Almost objectively” haha

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

      • 183414 says:
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        just the opposite in california.

      • Dave D says:
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        Except Gavin who is a small man trying to act as a big one. Lets not forget he betrayed his close friend, who was also his campaign manager, by screwing his wife while he was still married to Kimberly Guilfoyle . He’s experienced at betrayal. Some would even surmise he gets off on it.

    • 183414 says:
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      Agree 100%, but our prick dictator Newscum just permanently closed the beaches b/c a couple of miscreants said people were having too much fun. Should have impeached this putz when they had the chance.

      • Cram It says:
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        I’m angry at everything! Blargh!

      • lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
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        i saw the beach pictures , there were people but the were pretty far apart and the ones in small groups were probably families. They take the pictures from angles to make it suit the narratives dem take a low angle to look like everyone close, repubs take the overhead shot to show spacing.

      • Dave D says:
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        If he bans surfing I guarantee he will have a civil insurrection on his hands and it will come from the surf community. What the kids in the skatepark did was nothing. Most of the surf community is passionate about our sport to a degree he cannot fathom. The surfing message boards are going crazy already with plans for civil disobedience and defiance. If Noose-‘em tries such a stunt he will lose bigly and he plunge like Icarus and many will cheer.

        • FrankGrimes says:
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          Civil insurrection haha ok

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Oh jeez get off your high horse

  5. Kelly Denzik says:
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    great dart,i have in 4 of 5 current leagues

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, AL!

  6. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
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    I haven’t been this amped for a pitching prospect since, well, Paddack like you said lsat year. haha. But feels like its been 3 years. I grabbed him in the RazzSlam and have him on my dynasty teams… love it! and him. MacKenzie Gore is the top pitcher prospect (maybe because of path?), but for some reason he doesn’t feel quite as sexy as Pearson.

    • baby seal says:
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      I like Gore and Howard better for 2020 redraft… what do you think about what I said below regarding selling in a dynasty?

      I know that would be *veryyyyy* tough to do — much easier said than done!

      What kind of return could you get, or would you demand for him? Thanks!

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
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        In redraft yeah Howard is probably better move, feels like Gore will have a spot too. In dynasty I definitely like Pearson over Howard, has better fastball and command.

        What would I want? So in dynasty formats, i’m usually a builder. So considering his ceiling I would be very unlikely to trade him. But if I wanted to make a run and could clear that wall mentally, I’d want a difference maker like maybe top 50 impact.

        • Coolwhip

          Coolwhip says:
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          The other thing is, Pearson is just one Shoemaker injury away from a starting gig… and right now the over/under for that is like 20 innings lol.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Haha, yeah, Shoemaker ain’t making it to July and, if they start games in July, welp

        • baby seal says:
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          I don’t do dynasty so forgive me if these are bad questions haha. Just trying to get an idea here. But I’d love to join one if anyone has an open spot!

          So like straight up for an Albies, Ketel, Hiura — or are those guys too young?

          Maybe Xander, Baez, Meadows?

          Something along those lines?

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
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            For me, yes i would want someone along those lines.

            • baby seal says:
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              Cool, thanks!

            • Wake Up says:
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              I’d take any of this 6 all day

        • Agree with most of this except Howard has a little better command at the moment and that’s why I like him more for this year. Long term Pearson definitely.

          • FrankGrimes says:
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            I don’t like legit comment Wake
            I prefer comments like when you asked
            If it was time to drop Skaggs
            Prolly just me tho

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I liked when Wake introduced me to sea otters who can’t take no for answer

              • FrankGrimes says:
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                Yes thank you
                That’s what I’m talking about.
                Btw worst Tribal ever amiright?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’m not down with this “live tribal” thing…You can’t play along at home at all — it nulls all that came before it

              • Michelle Wolf is the one who told me about it…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Figures, with animal connection

            • I’M SO BORED!!!

              Franklins are always so hard to please…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, agreed…Gore is tough to not like too…But something about Pearson feels a tad more special…Gore will bully hitters too tho

      • baby seal says:
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        Just an innings thing w/ Pearson for me. Feels a tad less likely to make the impact you’d want.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe, but with no minor league season, he could impact

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
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            agree with G, if there ends up being no minor season, i would snatch him up everywhere i could.

            • baby seal says:
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              Or you can get Steven Matz for the same NFBC ADP! lolol

  7. baby seal says:
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    Hey G,

    My streak of daily commenting sadly came to an end yday. You keep stats for that? Haha. I don’t even want to begin thinking about how busy I was with work yesterday… brutal!

    Doesn’t help when people make silly mistakes that break critical processes, and I’m the one left to fixing it w/ the engineers for 2-3 hours. Ugh.

    Keeping an eye on Walker from yday — waiver watch.

    Pearson — think you undersold him! Fastball is EIGHTY-GRADE, baby! That’s 80 for the illiterate out there!

    But I have zero shares of him currently. He was mega-hyped all draft szn. Spencer Howard is just as good, has more IP upside IMO, was essentially given the job already, and was going ~2-300 picks later. Have him in a few of my DCs.

    Love the Roger Clemens link posted above. Great comp!

    Guy sits 99-100 MPH and touches 103-104. That’s nasty.

    This doesn’t matter as much for 2020, but he’s had arm issues and I’m always wary of guys who throw that hard. Sale, Severino, Thor… no bueno. Would consider selling in a dynasty — can probably get a King’s Ransom. Hold in a redraft.

    Makes sense not to add to top-100. Not entirely sold he gets the call up. But the Jays *should* certainly do it. Seems like teams are finally coming around on the idea that pitchers have limited bullets, and “wasting” them in the minors is a dumb idea. You can keep position players down unnecessarily, because the injury risk is so much lower. A top SP prospect — like Paddack — can really have such a HUGE impact on a real life team.

    Nice report Grey, thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cap Ripken, you are not

      Pearson was undersold in an article where I started by drooling over him? Why so tough on me?

      Pearson will be called up bc there won’t be a minor league season

      • baby seal says:
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        Haha. Wish I was — my gf would agree that I need to get my Iron Man streak up in the sack too!! HAHA.

        Just joshing ya! Was great. Only thing I think you “undersold” (used very liberally here) was how good the fastball is, especially how highly it’s thought of by scouts, etc.

        I’ve been wondering that on the minor league szn. Can’t say I disagree w/ you there.

        I also think he could easily be given the Severino role when he got called up. Essentially a high leverage / highly talented swing man. Or maybe a glorified Opener (3-4 IP per start)?

        I have $100 if anyone wants to take me up on a bet: Pearson’s average IP per appearance in 2020 will be less than 5.0. Will extend that to Luzardo and Urias too.

        • baby seal says:
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          Minimum 40IP for each, or the bet would be off. Don’t think that would be fair to either side.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            40 IP for Luzardo and Urias easily, otherwise they’re injured

            • baby seal says:
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              It’s > 40IP — AND — > 5.0 IP per appearance.

              Yes, the 40 IP qualifier is to take out the chance of injury impacting the bet. If they started 3 games and then were out for the year — that’s not in the spirit of what I’m interested in betting on.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                So many caveats

                • baby seal says:
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                  So confusing!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Can’t imagine a minor league season, impossible, which means top prospects are with the team — maybe on a Severino role, which is the same as, say, Yarbrough

          • baby seal says:
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            Not so sure. Could be no *official* minor league szn, but inter-squad games, and maybe play opponents who are close in distance to the facility.

            Lots of prospects may get called up, but depends on circumstance and team context.

            Think more teams will want their prospects to get some time in the facility before getting called up than ppl realize. Teams take developmental growth / stunting growth *very* seriously. To make sure they are in the right spot, both mentally and physically. That also buys time to see how the MLB team is performing. And ultimately can save a bunch of $$ too.

            It’s definitely the right call in my eyes — it’s like an option contract — small price to pay to keep in the minors, with a potential huge payout if you make the right decision either way. Call them up too soon and you lose that optionality.

            If the Jays are 8 games back, then I don’t think Pearson gets the call. That’s how I see it. Can replace Pearson with just about any other top prospect in that sentence. But int he case of him specifically, think he *does* get the call more likely than not — want to present the other case, which I think is more likely than many realize.

            Like you said, not a whole lot has changed yet. I’m not betting on prospects unless it makes sense–ie, not forcing it. There’s enough risk already, and their situation is even more confusing than MLB players. Last I checked, one of the 5×5 cats isn’t “Prospects” — so while you shouldn’t categorically ignore them — you can easily win without them too.

            Carlson would be an example of the opposite — should get the call. But we still don’t have enough info on the roster size and likelihood of the DH in the NL. Plenty of other guys to take shots on. Take em’ if you can get discount or good value… otherwise, mostly ignoring.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              We don’t know what service time or optionality will look like this year yet…That could also change. Not saying to force prospects either, I think as a last round pick, take a shot on one…I don’t even want multiple

              • 183414 says:
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                It’s all pissing in the wind. Last couple or 3 rounds are always worth a shot for someone you think has upside and is likely to play. Whether they play or how much they play is why they’re going where they go.

              • baby seal says:
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                Cool, sounds right to me

              • baby seal says:
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                Optionality in that sentence btw was not “Major League Options” btw…

                I was talking about pricing an option contract in finance. Making an analogy to how I think front offices would think about the risk/reward, both long-term and short-term, for handling their young players.

                An option contact (will explain briefly since I know your finance background, lol) in the lamest of terms I can possibly use to describe it: You are paying a small % of the underlying asset, in order to have the OPTION to buy/sell at a specific price at a later date.

                In more plain English: You are risking a small amount of $ — with a high chance of earning $0 or close to it on the contract — but for a decent chance of earning > 100% (typically) on it.

                The idea is that the downside is limited, but the upside is theoretically unlimited.

                Let’s say you were really bearish on the Corona Timeline. You could buy puts (like shorting) on SPY (the S&P 500) for a price much lower than where today’s S&P is trading, for say 3 months from now. These contracts are typically not very expensive.

                If the market goes up or sideways, then your option contact will most likely expire worthless.

                If the market tanks, then you will be “in the money,” if you’ve ever heard of that expression before. Depending on the contact, you could easily make a few hundred percent (even thousands of percent) return on the trade.

                More risk = more reward, but also a higher chance you earn $0 on the trade.

                Back to baseball! If the team “calls their option” on their prospects to start the year, then they’ve given up that flexibility, have started the $ clock, risk calling them up before they’re ready, etc.

                If they start them in the minors — why do you think a bunch of teams sent down their top prospects before the deadline passed? — then they have NOT called that option, and still retain all the benefits I just listed (plus more obviously).

                You might only keep the guy down there for maybe 2-4 weeks, depending. You really aren’t giving up *that* much, but what you are buying is TIME. You cannot buy time at the store, it’s the most valuable resource there is! That time = lots of new information you didn’t have a month ago.

                There could be lots of injuries, where maybe a team didn’t want to call a guy up, but now their hand is forced. Or, the prospect tries to ramp up too quickly, in excitement they could make the team, and then gets injured. TIME!

                It’s really a no-brainer from a financial perspective. What each team *actually* decides to do w/ each player will be idiosyncratic, and do not think generalizations work here.

                baby seal 2 cents and lecture on FIN 101 ova, cheers!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Thanks for explanation up top! Baby Seal got smarts!

                  My point on MLB was no one knows what is going on…I was just on TV talking to Craig Mish, Marlins beat writer, and he was saying there’s going to be no minor leagues, and all minor leaguers will be with team…If that’s the case, they will need to have an arrangement that service time is handled differently — also, he thinks universal DH and teams in different divisions…But I don’t know on that…No minor league season makes sense, which means they need to rethink major league options…That’s all I meant, I don’t think we know yet

                  • baby seal says:
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                    Haha, thanks!

                    We’re definitely more in agreement than not, just to be clear. I thought explaining that would be fun (yes, I’m a weirdo), and potentially useful / interesting for you, regardless of this convo.

                    Also wanted to clarify what I meant, since I could see how that might’ve been confusing, using “options” when talking about minor leaguers.

                    I have heard that as well, and no need to beat the horse to death. We agree more than we disagree.

                    It’s funny, there’s been talk for YEARS about how stingy the owners are, and now suddenly, everyone thinks they care more about player development than $? LOL!

                    IDK, but I like to be skeptical and always think about “the other side” (of the trade in my day job) when discussing unknowns.

                    Preparing for downside risk is paramount. You also want to be positioned to take advantage of upside. But it’s a lot easier to lose a lot quickly, than win a lot quickly. So downside risk is something I constantly think about, no matter what the topic is.

                    Little extra perspective on why I often present the other side. It’s not that I want to be a pest who disagrees w/ conventional wisdom, it’s really that the most $ to be made is when you go AGAINST consensus.

                    Being both right and non-consensus is how you win non-linear bets. Being right and consensus is how you become average.

                    Here is a table that explains it well: https://disruptionobserver.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/image-1.png

                    • baby seal says:
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                      Howard Marks talks about this concept a lot.

                      This is also used a lot in Venture investing. Here is a really good post from one of the most respected VC firms out there, a16z: https://a16z.com/2014/07/21/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-marc-andreessen/

                      There’s a better table in there than the one I posted above. This gives specific examples, linked here since I don’t expect you to read that blog post, lol: https://a16z.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/screen-shot-2014-06-12-at-11-53-33-am.png

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Thanks! I will check it out!

                    • baby seal says:
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                      OK, last thing, I used to read about venture investing all the time, because I thought it was fascinating and it’s a really weird/interesting subculture.

                      Peter Thiel’s book, “Zero to One” is a great, short, very easy read if you’ve never really gotten into the topic. Literally will take you a few days to get through it.

                      Can’t believe I didn’t realize this before, but there are some REALLY interesting and obvious parallels between drafting prospects and venture investing.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      There’s major overlap with fantasy sports and stocks…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Totally! I love being contrarian too…I will check out that article, thanks!

                • Coolwhip

                  Coolwhip says:
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                  The other side of that, as it applies to baseball… depending on the guys, you don’t want lost development time… so if there’s no milb season, or the “quality of play” is a lot worse due to just scrimmages etc. Some teams will want the guy up vs better competition so they can continue to take a step forward and not regress. It’s all about the perceived value of said TIME! ;-)

                  • baby seal says:
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                    That’s the toughest one to figure out, IMO.

                    Like the Wander post — his value / chances of getting called up this year definitely went up dramatically. But by how much?

                    Let’s say there was a 2% chance before. Is it a 10% chance now, 15%, 20%? IDK

                    I tend to side on the tendencies team have showed for years. So w/ the Rays, I think they will likely be stingy, unless their hand is forced (Adames injury)

                    But I could easily see the other argument too. The Rays might think their system has enough talent within to challenge each other.

                    They might also be able to work out a deal, w/ say the Yanks (or whoever is close to their facility) to play some friendly exhibition games.

                    Or maybe not, in which case, do his chances of getting called up go to 30%? I mean, IDK, but that’s what I’m struggling w/ figuring out, and why I’m personally siding on teams being more stingy than not.

                    Being stingy also gives them the perfect excuse to keep those guys down for a bit next year, further pinching pennies. That seems to be all anyone could talk about for a long time.

                    Now these top guys all hit the ground running, and think the upside bias has pushed people to think about all the Acunas and Tatis’s they’ve missed, rather than the Tuckers’ that sunk the battleship. And even more so, the Vladdies, Acunas, Torres’, etc. who had to wait a month for no good reason.

                    Thank God the Mets called up Alonso and that he RAKED. The game needed a player to do that. Show the teams that pinching pennies isn’t always optimal.

                    I don’t think this is necessarily what teams *should* do, but rather, when analyzing on a risk-adjusted basis, this is how *I* want to draft my teams and think about the szn.

                    Makes sense?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Luzardo and Urias average appearance will be 5.3

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            OK, bet me!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Why are you trying to take my money

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                Trying to win back that Patreon commitment I made :-)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  That money went to a bag of rice so we can eat for two weeks

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    HAHAHAHA

                • Coolwhip

                  Coolwhip says:
                  (link)

                  Don’t take food out of Coug’s mouth!

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Or anything for that matter!

                    • meow?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I love a nice meow

                    • Wake Up says:
                      (link)

                      Ill take the Urias bet.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, Urias seems like easy $

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      OK, you guys can hit me on Twitter @Rinaldi224 — send a DM — game on!

          • 183414 says:
            (link)

            Fwiw, unless the mgr. or g.m. says what he intends to do (and even that is subject to change), saying Pearson or Urias or Luzardo or Howard or whoever will throw so many innings or Carlson or Hilliard or Rodgers or Senzel will get so many a.b.’s is pure guess work. The reason these players usually go so late is because of these unknowns. Urias and Luzardo going where they’ve gone seems to tell me that there a whole lot of believers that they’ll be going longer than some of you are projecting.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Prolly why I don’t have many shares of Luzardo and Urias

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              But you just said no one really knows and it’s pissing into the wind, no? I agree with that, FWIW.

              This is my piss into the wind. It’s a $100 bet — who cares?

              Just having some fun. Want to see if people will put their money where their mouth is, because I have no problem w/ that myself.

              I actually love it, because I’ll get way more value out of the bet than the $100, even if I lose it.

              Of course many are projecting that, or one thing or another, and of course they could be right! I don’t think there is a right answer, otherwise this wouldn’t really be fun.

              Many are also taking Merrifield in the 5th round. Not me. No one *really* knows what’ll happen. That’s what makes a market!

              Grey and the other guy took me up on the Urias bet. Love it! Obviously, I think I’m right. But fully admit that there’s a good chance I’m totally wrong.

              All in good fun, baby!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Why would Urias, minus an injury, not get 40 IP?

                • baby seal says:
                  (link)

                  lol, let’s try again, that’s not the bet:

                  It’s GREATER THAN 40 IP for the year AND he would have to do GREATER THAN 5.0 IP per appearance.

                  The original bet was that he wouldn’t do greater than 5.0 IP per appearance. I added the 40 IP min in order to take out injury wonkiness.

                  Got it?

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    You’re adding in conditional clauses!

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Correct!

  8. NUX says:
    (link)

    I just need to know what yoga position it was that DT was trying to demonstrate when he then fell and busted his face open.

    Ts and Ps DT, sick Harry Potter scar

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I was choking and girlfriend threw me out of the house.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Your girlfriend is very smart!

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
          (link)

          She’s a big fan of the Razzball Patreon Podcast!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            You need to pop the question on our Patreon pod, or I will

            • baby seal says:
              (link)

              Grey the Match Maker!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                I’m connecting people

                • Coolwhip

                  Coolwhip says:
                  (link)

                  You are Patti Stranger with a fantastic mustache!

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Hahaha

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      HAHAHA, again, HAHAHA, that made me cackle

                    • Coolwhip

                      Coolwhip says:
                      (link)

                      LOL… today was a good day.

                  • baby seal says:
                    (link)

                    lol, please explain the reference for a slow immature marine animal!!

                    • Coolwhip

                      Coolwhip says:
                      (link)

                      haha, pop culture reference! Millionaire Matchmaker on Bravo! TV, my wife used to watch it. She’s a very successful Jewish matchmaker based in the LA area.

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Ahhhhhh, sounds familiar now.

                      Very happy that I didn’t recognize the name initially. Pride myself in distancing away from those brain drains, and that complete utter nonsensical world

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hahaha

    • Ill take this bet too…

      Crow!

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Hit me on Twitter — need to know who you are or the bet isn’t final. DM @Rinaldi224

        Can give you an email address instead if you don’t have Twitter. Looking forward to it!!

  9. BBHHI says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    As you’ll see, I’m in AL Only League

    Please rank the following for this year and LT:
    Luzardo
    Pearson
    Kopeck
    Puk
    McKay
    Mize
    Whitley

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      This year: Luzardo, McKay, Pearson, Whitley, Puk, Kopeck, Mize

      LT: Pearson, Luzardo, Whitley, McKay, Kopeck, Puk, Mize

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Agree except for:

        This year: would put Kopeck ahead of Whitley

        LT: Luzardo first

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Meh, maybe

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Splitting hairs. Think it comes down to personal preference

            I love Luzardo’s command and arsenal. Pearon’s velo worries me a tad LT.

            Wouldn’t fault anyone for disagreeing! DT’s list is totally fine.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Luzardo is good too, they’re all so good and close

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                Yes!

            • If there’s anyone who’s ever had easy/non max effort 104 it’s Pearson.

              • baby seal says:
                (link)

                Nice clip from the Futures All Star Game (and others) here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azBeQJfGDBk

                That 101MPH first K was veryyy nice.

                But wouldn’t call that throwing easy! He’s very clearly a max effort kind of guy. Especially that last series — you can see he’s overexerting himself. But then slows it down and gives him the nasty hook.

                The guy is great! Love it (kinda, not as a Yanks fan, haha). Just like Luzardo a little better long-term!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agree with DT

  10. leon says:
    (link)

    more of a dynasty league question where salaries matter. 6×6.

    my Brandon Marsh($0) for his Alex Verdugo($9).. obviously verdugos injury plays a big role in my dilemma. salaries go up $2 next year. then $4 after that.. so on.

    thanks, nice read on pearson. I own him in this league and am very excited.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I’d want Verdugo

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

      Agree with DT

  11. krazyivan says:
    (link)

    Great dart throw-Would you rather take a shot on Pearson, or, Freddy Peralta?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      Pearson for me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      So close, I’ve done Freddy in a few leagues, and I did Pearson in the last league I drafted

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        Total toss up, but probably Pearson. Might have a better shot at starting

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Shoemaker can’t stay healthy and Jays don’t really have anyone after Ryu

          • baby seal says:
            (link)

            Yep, see comment above. Expanded on Pearson concerns a bit more.

            But as you can see, not like I think there’s 0% chance. Just all about probabilities and relative value. In this situation, I’m going Pearson pretty easily over Freddy.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yup, makes sense

      • krazyivan says:
        (link)

        Thanks!
        Rainy day in NC-not that it is “causing” me to be stuck inside!
        Doing my work on the computer while listening to a broadcast of a April 30th, 1969 game with the Mets at Expos with Seaver on the bump.

        It was the Expos first year and they played at the last single level major league baseball stadium built, Jarry Park.
        http://www.digitalballparks.com/National/ParqJarry13.html
        Found an aerial picture-that is “splash down” pool beyond right field named after Wille Stargell deposited multiple bombs into it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Stargell was so much fun…Gone way too soon — don’t do drugs, folks

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          Weather sucks today!!

  12. Kelly Denzik says:
    (link)

    love Pearson and K opech this year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, AL!

  13. Homers got the runs says:
    (link)

    Question for you Grey? With the possibility of baseball coming back at some point in June or July, what does that do for Rich Hills value? Considering dropping Freddie Peralta for him. It’s a 14 player keeper League.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold Freddy

  14. baby seal says:
    (link)

    I’m in this Fantrax $100 Best Ball if anyone wants to join me…

    Draft starts at 1pm EST the following day after it fills — currently at 5/12 teams. 2H slow clock. Rules are in the link below.

    https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.fantrax.com/newui/fantasy/joinLeagueSiteWide.go?gameId=24f&leagueId=g4oln1p0k18r4tzt&lgId=h2im7195k922toa9__;!!K_TC0FI_KA!-bGYspMwca4hqusbWTz_tSv1QwAeHS9g8F9JJPLrjpkwMXa0ClSjIO2LdsrSi9xwT871seQw$

    Feel free to ask questions here, or can DM on Twitter: @Rinaldi224

      • You probably already know this, but fantrax bestball is very pitcher favourable. I walked mine last year and my first 3 picks, Cole degrom sale.

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          Are you from the UK?

          Yep, very aware of that, also the positional eligibility is especially wonky. Really looking forward to it!

          • Aye. Northern Ireland. Good luck with the BB league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      And get mocked for missing 4 of the first 5 picks, no thank you!

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        HAHAHA

  15. costaricanchata says:
    (link)

    thanks for the gifs
    and opinion.

    re : gif #1
    that pitch might be more effective vs right-handed batters .

    un-related (?) :
    september call-ups taking on a whole new meaning this year .

    regards .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, September call-ups are gonna be with the team all year

  16. The Itch

    The Itch says:
    (link)

    I think I was too low on him. Moved him to 25 in the Feb 200, but that’s probably low, too.

    Totally agree on the impact of no minor leaguer season altering prospect’s timelines.

    The rules themselves will encourage it.

    One simple way being that a game won or lost is worth more. Might even have an expanded playoff. Will likely have some owners pushing short-term fiscal goals over long-term team-control goals.

    Fewer service days in general is going to make super two stuff crazy difficult to game/predict.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
      (link)

      I kinda can’t believe I called the dude gravity and ranked him mid 30’s.

      Good call: it was just a fade-pitching move, gone a little overboard in this case.

      • The Itch

        The Itch says:
        (link)

        I don’t often enjoy my own writing, but I like that gravity-as-a-bully concept.

        *cut to South Park animated Itch smelling his fart from a wine glass

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Gravity is the biggest bully

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
            (link)

            Gravity makes fools of us all.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Stupid gravity

        • Coolwhip

          Coolwhip says:
          (link)

          Yeah i liked the literally symbolism too :) …made me think of The Eye… the Eye of Sauron could have worked too, lol… An image of malice and hatred made visible; It was said that few could endure its terrible gaze. A growing sense of hostile will that stove to pin you under its deadly gaze, naked, immovable.

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
            (link)

            literary* stupid autocorrect

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Ah, yeah, wasn’t sure…I don’t even know it was wrong

      • baby seal says:
        (link)

        I think it was a bit low but not totally unjustified at the time.

        Were major concerns if he’d get called up, and if he did, IP% over the year was always going to be low.

  17. Homers got the runs says:
    (link)

    I can post comments but can’t see them. Do you know why? Comment section comes up empty when I refresh the page.

    • Coolwhip

      Coolwhip says:
      (link)

      clear your cache and restart browser

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        You think that’s all it is, Coolwhip?

        • Coolwhip

          Coolwhip says:
          (link)

          Thats what i did and it fixed it for me.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Ah, so it happened for you too? We did a WordPress update, maybe that’s all it is

            • Coolwhip

              Coolwhip says:
              (link)

              that could definitely be part of it, depending on what part of the platform got updated

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, not sure, Donkey had an issue too…It does seem like browser refresh helps

                • Coolwhip

                  Coolwhip says:
                  (link)

                  maybe need to check the other modules, the wordpress update might have “broken” another module/addon to the site’s architecture that’s not fully compatible with the new wordpress update

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    But it’s fine once you clean your browser right?

                    • Coolwhip

                      Coolwhip says:
                      (link)

                      for a while then it chokes again, when i logout then log back in to site it fixes it too. so i think the update might have messed something up, I’m not an admin so i can’t see whats there, but thats where i’d look.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Really? It’s happened again?

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Didn’t have any issues, fwiw

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Thanks, BS!

                    • Coolwhip

                      Coolwhip says:
                      (link)

                      what browser you using seal?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Fine on Safari

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      And Chrome (for me, at least)

                    • Coolwhip

                      Coolwhip says:
                      (link)

                      haha, yeah i’m on chrome and still have sporadic issues, weird. *thinking emoji*

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Not sure, it seems like most are fine — hopefully it fixes itself since I’m stupid with technology

                    • Yeah it was fudged earlier. I ping’d Kid A @ Langley and he cleared it up. Working fine now.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Haha, nice

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Chrome, Windows (work laptop)

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Doesn’t work or does work?

                    • baby seal says:
                      (link)

                      Does work

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Thanks, Mr. Seal

                • Homer's got the Runs says:
                  (link)

                  Didn’t have to refresh but seems to be working now. Thank you.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Ah, great, sorry!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      We heard this from someone else, looking into it

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Homers, it’s worth a shot what ‘ whip said

    • Hater Bell

      Grey Albright says:
      (link)

      Test

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        Your test failed, but your write-up succeeded.

  18. 183414 says:
    (link)

    Sounds like a lot of 2nd (and 3d) guessing. If you keep guessing enough, eventually you’ll be prescient.

    • Yeah guessing/betting/forecasting…isn’t that what we are all doing here?

      • 183414 says:
        (link)

        What I meant to say, which I thought I said, was that if you have enough opinions/projections on any player, you’ll be right somewhere.
        Much like those gambling sites that pick both teams enough, so that they’re right 1/2 of the time.
        Certainly no betting going on in this site. guessing=forecasting.

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        183414 doesn’t guess all that much. He wins! There is no doubt about that. But I like Pearson and this was a good Albright write up.

        • Let’s all drink a Duff beer to that!

          Cheers!

          • Dave D says:
            (link)

            I would with Homer for sure. That’d be an honor.

        • baby seal says:
          (link)

          I liked this one much better than yesterday’s!

        • 183414 says:
          (link)

          Haha. Thanks Dave. I’m not big on guessing.Don’t usually change my mind on players before the season starts. An exception this year. Glasnow, Paxton, Luzardo, Kopech come to mind.

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            It’s just semantics. Of course you should stay open to all new information. Know your projections, player profiles, listen to GMs, who often blow smoke, etc, etc, etc, ego aside, end of the day, you’re making your best guess…call it what you like…

  19. lennydykstraisjustkmisunderstood says:
    (link)

    that kid has filthy suff…….

  20. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    spoke too soon it’s still a little wonky…FYI

  21. Otters of Boyztown says:
    (link)

    We’ll just be over here in the water in case anyone wants to go swimming

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Otters are dirty sea creatures and I don’t trust them

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
        (link)

        they are also serial rapists

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Never trust otters with their grabby hands!

          • first thing they teach you in business school. can’t trust an otter.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Rule #1 of Fight Club is Otters will hurt you sexually

              • my grandma lost 3/4 of her life savings in a scam. they never caught the otter.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I had otter for breakfast and the otter had me for lunch, dinner and dessert, never again

                  • Coolwhip

                    Coolwhip says:
                    (link)

                    to otters, no means yes, and yes means twice

        • you can’t spell President Donald Trump without otters

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
            (link)

            he’s otterly ridiculous i swear.

    • baby seal says:
      (link)

      Oh gosh, my arch nemesis!!

  22. ryan says:
    (link)

    in my 14 team h2h dynasty league I think I could use some more minor tweaks. I was offered urquidy for murphy. Is this a type of move I should look to make? Does this improve my SP or should look to target another pitcher?

    c sean murphy

    1b maX muncy

    2b ozzie albies

    3b rafael devers

    ss bo bichette

    lf juan soto

    cf ronald acuna

    rf austin meadows

    util yuli gurriel

    bn luke voit

    bn cj cron

    bn omar narvaez

    na andrew vaughn

    na robert puason

    na jeter downs

    na julio rodriguez

    na erick pena

    sp brandon woodruff
    sp patrick corbin

    sp julio urias

    sp max scherzer

    rp scott oberg

    rp ryan pressly

    rp brandon kintzler

    p alex wood

    bn kevin gausman

    bn carlos rodon

    bn deivi garcia

    bn sixto sanchez

    bn edward cabrera

    bn nathan eovaldi

    bn matt shoemaker

    na luis patino

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I prefer Urquidy but it’s not a great trade for you

  23. ryan says:
    (link)

    In my 14 team h2h dynasty league I was offered jose urquidy for murphy. I could use another sp to add, but I am not sure what to think of urquidy. Should I look for a different sp if i move murphy? The team with urquidy also has josh james, but I am not sure if he will move him intsead.

    c sean murphy

    1b max muncy

    2b ozzie albies

    3b rafael devers

    ss bo bichette

    lf juan soto

    cf ronald acuna

    rf austin meadows

    util yuli gurriel
    bn luke voit
    bn cj cron

    bn omar narvaez

    na andrew vaughn

    na robert puason

    na jeter downs

    na julio rodriguez

    na erick pena

    sp patrick corbin
    sp brandon woodruff

    sp julio urias

    sp max scherzer

    rp scott oberg

    rp ryan pressly

    rp brandon kintzler

    p alex wood

    bn kevin gausman

    bn carlos rodon

    bn deivi garcia

    bn sixto sanchez

    bn edward cabrera

    bn nathan eovaldi

    bn matt shoemaker

    na luis patino

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I prefer Urquidy but it’s not a great trade for you

      • ryan says:
        (link)

        Any specific reason why it’s not a great trade for me?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You don’t need Urquidy, trade Murphy for something else?

          • ryan says:
            (link)

            Any specific positions I need to target if i move murphy?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              You look like you could use a bat more than an arm but I don’t know what Murphy gets you

  24. Gotta love the Pearson dart throw! Some of these kids with fresh arms and lots of bullets are drool worthy for sure. Nice choice Grey!

Comments are closed.